misplaced hope.
there is many reasons epidemiologists such as fauci, who is cautiously optimistic there will be multiple safe and effective vaccines by the end o' the year, has said we will need to keep basic covid-19 protocols in place for much o' 2021.
the US may have as many as 100 million doses o' vaccine available by the end o' this year. maybe. 100 mil is assuming all vaccine candidates is successes. even if there is 100 million doses, that don't mean 100 million is inoculated. multiple vaccine candidates require a second dose administered ~ one month after the initial injection. so 100 million actual means somewhere indefinite 'tween 50 million and 100 million... which ignores fact there will be production fails and distribution fails and unpredictable but nevertheless inevitable everyday human error fails which will further reduce real numbers o' possible vaccinations
also, has taken 8 months to administer 129 million covid tests in the US, and the testing efforts has been fraught with innumerable logistical issues. is not analogous situations for various reasons. tests need be administered, sent to a lab where they is processed and then results is needing be communicated back to individual tested. more complex than administering a vaccine, no? well, not so much as you will likely need go to a dr. office to get injection and the vaccines themselves is needing be stored cold... a few candidates need be stored extreme cold. is a whole host o' logistical hurdles which need be addressed by states and fed and so far the fed has not been communicating with states 'bout vaccine delivery efforts. initial vaccine efforts is gonna be a mess unless drastic changes occur... yesterday.
additional, we won't know the initial efficacy o' the vaccines save for whether they reach some kinda basement effectiveness. one candidate will be measured at minimum 50% efficacy. another will be set at 60% minimum. have explained previous, and am knowing such attempts has been fruitless, but a 50-60% effective vaccine is more than sufficient for stopping the pandemic, but only if everybody takes the vaccine (current near 50% o' people will not volunteer to take initial) and just so long as people continue to follow basic mask behaviours for months and months and months.
social distance is best, but social distance is not possible for every and all. masks and other covid-19 behaviours should continue to be routine everyday aspects o' life for the better part o' 2021, regardless o' vaccine. even if we have multiple viable vaccine candidates by the end o' this year, is a misplaced hope to see a return to anything approaching normal life before late summer or early fall o' 2021, and that is only if people actual follow guidelines. timeline will be stretched if science-challenged yahoos reuse to take vaccine or converse, take vaccine and pretend as if they no longer need follow basic covid-19 protocols 'cause they has been innoculated.
in places such as the US and europe, something approaching normal will return w/i the next year or so but is worth recognizing the world population is in the ballpark range o' 7.8 billion. if you genuine wanna stop pandemic, you need get a significant % o' that population inoculated or everytime there is an outbreak in bangladesh or malawi, the threat o' a worldwide surge will be real. a whole lotta inoculations need occur before real normal happens.
HA! Good Fun!