Coronavirus : Country readiness

[Bartimaeus]

[Gorgon]

Yeah so, it turns out being cooped up and watching corona virus coverage all day leaves you a bit on edge.

[HoonDing]

Yeh, humanity is pretty much over.

[Skarpen]

1 minute ago, HoonDing said:

Yeh, humanity is pretty much over.

Was there a cure discovered?

[Bartimaeus]

7 minutes ago, HoonDing said:

Yeh, humanity is pretty much over.

Sir, sir, Prime Minister! Will you be authorizing the entry of any coronavirus refugees to Absurdistan this upcoming week? The world is growing increasingly desperate and Absurdistan is literally infinitely vast...wouldn't it be morally unjustifiable to let anyone else unnecessarily die from this crisis if you can do something to prevent it?

Edited March 19, 2020 by Bartimaeus

[Gfted1]

*in Gregorian chant* BOOoooOOOoooOOOYaaaaa! Good new everyone! I stopped by the store and scored 12Lb. of rice, pasta and sauce (youre my boy, Gorgon!), Spam, tuna, eggs and bologna. Im going to go boil a dozen eggs for longer term storage.

[rjshae]

2 hours ago, 213374U said:

The Imperial College London paper that has informed the UK gov't course corrections observed precisely that. Lifting of interventions can lead to a rebound in transmission. But the paper being a purely scientific document glosses over the question of the sustainability of these measures even short-term.

Mitigation strategies will possibly lead to more deaths, but suppression may not be enforceable for long. People are already being charged by the tens of thousands in Italy for violating lockdown, and it hasn't been even a month. The most fantastically optimistic estimates for a vaccine being ready are looking at 8 months.

The good news then is the virus may evolve to select for stupidity.

[Raithe]

Washington Post - Coronavirus will radically alter the US

 

In the worst-case scenario, America is on a trajectory toward 1.1 million deaths. That model envisions the sick pouring into hospitals, overwhelming even makeshift beds in parking lot tents. Doctors would have to make agonizing decisions about who gets scarce resources. Shortages of front-line clinicians would worsen as they get infected, some dying alongside their patients. Trust in government, already tenuous, would erode further.

That grim scenario is by no means a foregone conclusion — as demonstrated by countries like South Korea which has reduced its new cases a day from hundreds to dozens with aggressive steps to bolster their health system.

If Americans embrace drastic restrictions and school closures, for instance, we could see a death toll closer to thousands and breathe a national sigh of relief as we prepare for a grueling but surmountable road ahead.

An alarming new model

Doing that will require Americans to “flatten the curve” — slowing the spread of the contagion so it doesn’t overwhelm a health-care system with finite resources. That phrase has become ubiquitous in our national conversation. But what experts have not always made clear is that by applying all that downward pressure on the curve — by canceling public gatherings, closing schools, quarantining the sick and enforcing social distancing — you elongate the curve, stretching it out over a longer period of time.

Success means a longer — though less catastrophic — fight against the coronavirus. And it is unclear whether Americans — who built this country on ideals of independence and individual rights — would be willing to endure such harsh restrictions on their lives for months, let alone for a year or more.

This month began with U.S. officials recommending actions such as hand-washing and social distancing. By Sunday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was warning against gatherings of 50-plus people. By Monday, President Trump had made an abrupt turn from encouraging Americans to go on with their lives, to urging them to work from home, not meet in groups of more than 10, and calling on local officials to close schools, bars and restaurants. (Getting the public to comply has been alarmingly difficult. Young revelers from Bourbon Street to Miami have ignored those pleas, as have some elderly, who are at highest risk.)

Trump’s sudden shift was driven by an alarming new scientific model, developed by British epidemiologists and shared with the White House. The scientists bluntly stated the coronavirus is the most serious respiratory virus threat since the 1918 flu pandemic. If no action to limit the viral spread were taken, as many as 2.2 million people in the United States could die over the course of the pandemic, according to epidemiologist Neil Ferguson and others at the Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team.

Adopting some mitigation strategies to slow the pandemic — such as isolating those suspected of being infected and social distancing of the elderly — only cuts the death toll in half to 1.1 million, although it would also reduce demand for health services by two-thirds.

************************

As America enters this utterly unfamiliar territory, some experts have turned to history for glimpses of what to expect in the months ahead.

Initially leery of alarming the public, they have increasingly compared this pandemic to the 1918 flu pandemic, the deadliest in modern history. It infected roughly a third of the world’s population and killed at least 50 million people, including at least 675,000 in the United States.

Like the bumpy hills some foresee in coming months, the 1918 pandemic hit America in three waves — a mild one that spring, the deadliest wave in fall and a final one that winter.

With each wave came a cycle of denial, devastation, community response finally kicking into overdrive — followed by finger-pointing and blame among leaders and the public.

“Every outbreak is different,” said medical anthropologist Monica Schoch-Spana, who spent months digging through archives to study how 1918 flu played out in Baltimore.

Like coronavirus is likely to do, the 1918 flu overwhelmed hospitals. Unable to get help, desperate families waited outside to beg and try to bribe doctors for treatment. In a three-week period, 2,000 died in Baltimore alone. Mortuaries ran out of caskets. When the bodies finally reached cemeteries, the gravediggers were so ill, there was no one to bury the dead. Economic pressure on business owners and workers caused public resistance to adopt — and stick with restrictions.

The crisis brought out the best in Baltimoreans — with sewing circles churning out gauze masks and hospital bedding, and neighbors donating food and services. But it also brought out the worst — xenophobic conspiracy theories that nurses of “German extraction” were deliberately infecting people. African American patients were kept out of most hospitals under Jim Crow-era segregation.

“Pandemics aren’t just physical,” said Schoch-Spana. “They bring with them an almost shadow pandemic of psychological and societal injuries as well.”

[Gromnir]

kinda off-topic, so will just mention how our atypical posting style has us mention a poster by name frequent. is not unusual. just a couple examples.

regardless, it is amusing how some will indulge in worst kinda deflection.  issue were a poster claiming indifference to the murder o' not just a particular rando reporter, but reporters in general. he then got angry when it were suggested he were indifferent to reporter murder. confronted with actual words in which he expressed indifference to reporter murder (example o' creep we s'pose) the poster lost water and created the signature worthy self one-upmanship statement o' being indifferent to almost any murder save those affecting him and his.

what?

'course the real issue is perceived creep.

deflection. conspiracy. sense o' victimization. lack o' basic empathy. etc.

ideal choice for moderator.

more relevant, dr. fauci has been noticeable absent at daily pressers.

Why Hasn’t Tony Fauci Been at the Coronavirus Press Conferences?

am recognizing the hypocrisy o' calling out posters for conspiracy theories and then linking a slate article, so am qualifying by saying we ain't suggesting anything in the article is true save for reporting o' dr. fauci absence, which were noticeable to us but doesn't appear to have been reported elsewheres.

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Azdeus]

Came to the realization that even if all stores and whatnot gets shut down here, I'm still going to have to work. Crap.

[Zoraptor]

Quote

In the worst-case scenario, America is on a trajectory toward 1.1 million deaths.

Eh no. It would be nice if WaPo actually read the material they cite; 2.2 million is their worst case scenario*, and that excludes any extra deaths from other causes due to the health system breaking down.

(Technically the absolute worst case scenario would be ~50% infection rate with 3% of those infected dying, or about 5-6 million people for the US. Fortunately, that is highly unlikely no matter how incompetent the response is)

*p7 "In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."

[Gromnir]

2 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Eh no. It would be nice if WaPo actually read the material they cite; 2.2 million is their worst case scenario*, and that excludes any extra deaths from other causes due to the health system breaking down.

(Technically the absolute worst case scenario would be ~50% infection rate with 3% of those infected dying, or about 5-6 million people for the US. Fortunately, that is highly unlikely no matter how incompetent the response is)

*p7 "In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."

am not giving recent washington post efforts a break, but we will observe how the 2.2 million number were specific referenced in the linked article: 

"If no action to limit the viral spread were taken, as many as 2.2 million people in the United States could die over the course of the pandemic, according to epidemiologist Neil Ferguson and others at the Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team."

do nothing = 2.2million... plus admitted non specific and undetermined deaths from overwhelmed health systems with insufficient surge capacities. efforts has already been taken, so 2.2 is no longer a relevant number.

that said, insufficient surge is a given in the US. have mentioned previous how 90% o' us hospitals nationwide were already at or beyond capacity before the covid-19 outbreak. nothing were done at the fed level until last two weeks to begin addressing surge problems.  the reason current efforts is so focused on flattening the curve is precise 'cause o' the recognition many will die for no other reason that they is left in hospital hallways to expire as triage decisions force doctors to repeated make life-death calls for people who could be saved if resources existed to meet the need. and again, the need were becoming quick apparent in january, if not earlier.

am not defending washington post, but if headline were 2.2 million worst case scenario, there would be justifiable pushback recognizing how that number from the report were result on zero mitigation. that said, we agree (am gonna assume we agree) there needs to be more emphasis placed on education o' the charlie fox we face regarding surge capacity.

example: there are no extra ventilators. ny state assumes it will need an additional 30,000. US stockpiles is 12k total. 

response to situation:

President announces at presser he signed order which gives him authority to direct manufacturing sector to start producing necessities, then he tweets next day he is holding such authority until it is needed.

were needed back in january 2020. woulda' made a huge difference in january. in march 2020 is no less necessary, but have gotta accept how many walking, talking, breathing americans is already dead and they just don't know it yet. will be deaths due to insufficient resources including insufficient hospital beds and insufficient healthy doctors/nurses. failure to take obvious actions to keep the number o' deaths due to failed surge as low as possible is, understatement of the year, disappointing.

HA! Good Fun!

 

Edited March 20, 2020 by Gromnir
corrected ny state ventilator need as an "additional" 30k

[rjshae]

Worse case scenario is 4 million Americans dead:

https://news.slashdot.org/story/20/03/19/0232245/what-happens-if-the-us-does-absolutely-nothing-to-combat-covid-19

[algroth]

Over here in Argentina we've just announced a total lockdown. It sucks, of course, and there's no real upside to any of this, but for a slight bit of positivity, I'm honestly quite happy with the way the government's been handling the situation, it's night and day compared to USA. Contrary to Trump who acts like the war is won every day despite his absolute lethargy in action, here Fernandez seems very candid about the limitations of our capabilities and rather than use them as an excuse, thinks and acts ahead of the issue. We're on lockdown despite no community spread cases being confirmed, because we're acting preventively and not reactively. There's a real effort here to flatten the curve, to make of the crisis *not* a self-serving partisan affair, to act instead of pretend to act; and in all of this it's pretty interesting to see how the political divide seems to have narrowed since. I haven't seen this sort of unity in fifteen years.

Edited March 20, 2020 by algroth

[Skarpen]

6 hours ago, Gromnir said:

deflection. conspiracy. sense o' victimization. lack o' basic empathy. etc.

ideal choice for moderator.

Seems like you campaigning for the position 

You get my vote 

[Gromnir]

thanks to our self-awareness, the nightmare scenario o' a Gromnir moderator o' these boards has been avoided. would that a few other individuals had indulged in similar self-reflection before taking on the responsibility.

HA! Good Fun!

 

[213374U]

Plus, you can keep saying that you'd never join a club that would have you as a member.

[Gorgon]

My god there is so much intrigue that just flies right past me in this place.

[Guard Dog]

None in Tipton county yet!

[daven]

I'm feeling really depressed. Someone cheer me up.

[Katphood]

13 hours ago, Bartimaeus said:

Is that from Naked Gun?

[Amentep]

Its from Airplane!

And don't call me 'Shirley'.

[Bartimaeus]

2 hours ago, daven said:

I'm feeling really depressed. Someone cheer me up.

If you die from coronavirus, you won't be scared or depressed anymore, so there's really no need to be too upset about all of this. Probably. Happy Friday!

Edited March 20, 2020 by Bartimaeus

[Gfted1]

It takes a hella long time for water to boil when you stand over the pot watching it. Kooky. Boiled up a dozen eggs, for storage, then would up eating two.  They turned out perfectly, with the shell coming right off.

[Gfted1]

8 hours ago, Skarpen said:

Seems like you campaigning for the position 

You get my vote 

Im the one that nominated him the last two times we were looking for mods! Hahahaha.