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Zoraptor

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Everything posted by Zoraptor

  1. Funny thing about Hamas stopping elections in Gaza is that there haven't been any elections in the West Bank, either. Easy to forget that though, since the people and media who usually evangelise about Middle East Democracy are... somewhat quiet about that fact. (Hamas would actually love elections since they'd win them easily, it's Fatah that desperately doesn't want them- and ironically, given the 'voted in Hamas' justification, support for Hamas in the WB is roughly twice that in Gaza. Mahmoud Abbas and by extension Fatah are seen as Quislings, and Abbas personally has statistically near impossible support, almost late stage Frankie Hollande level- one (1) percent. Fatah's is a bit better, especially without Abbas, but not that much)
  2. Good news everyone, Israel is planning on putting the 1.2 (or 1.4 depending on source) million people in Rafah into 'Humanitarian Islands*'. How can anyone object to that? Sadly some do though, as with the latest incident of a Jollycopter donating Rainbow Projectiles to another group of 'people' waiting for 'aid' to be 'delivered'. They should be thanking the IDF for trying to do its bit to prevent obesity and overpopulation... *some might think there's a preexisting term for Concentrating civilian population into Camps, but I can't quite put my finger on what that term is.
  3. The White Rex group (Russian Volunteer Corps) is dodgy in terms of being neo nazi, all of them are dodgy in terms of being Russian. Last time around we got a lot of Poles and Ukrainians appearing as Russians in their videos, and the propaganda videos this time around have featured such classic telltales as using the Ukrainian rather than Russian terms for Kursk and Belgorod- not exactly what you'd expect from an actual Russian Patriot in the RDK/RVC which is what he claimed to be. Not at all surprising, it'd be like the Russians arming a bunch of Ukrainians from Lviv and staging an incursion. No way the Russians would trust them enough to arm them so they'd be a bunch of Russians doing Ukrainian accents like they were auditioning for 'ривіт 'ривіт. If it's all to do with the Russian elections- pretty likely- we'll have maybe three more days then it will quieten down again.
  4. Pressing also makes sure Ukraine can't rotate troops or accumulate resources for counterattacks or to maintain a reserve. At the moment it's Rasputitsa (well, sure looks it at least)--> little or no progress until it dries out, but you can certainly keep the pressure up. The AA losses are definitely due to the ever increasing Russian use of UMPK (Russian version of JDAM). The artillery discrepancy may be bad, but at least that's 'only' at the sort of 8-12kg of explosive per shell level, and you can make decent fortifications resistant to that. 100 odd FAB250/500/1500 per day at 150/350/ 900 kg of TNT equivalent versus a handful from Ukraine is not sustainable and will make a mess of any system of fortifications. That has to be countered, and the only thing with enough range to counter that are S-300 and Patriot, and S-300 would have to be practically on the front line to do so. The issue for Ukraine if they were Patriots is that they're bunched and were there long enough for an Iskander (and unlike others such as the HiMARS it actually looks like Iskander rather than Tornado) to hit them. They have to take some risks with them.
  5. Looks probable that some Patriot launchers got got yesterday. While identified as S-300 they look a lot more like Patriots in transit than S-300 and there isn't anything else they could be apart from those two. The hits are definite, and they were definitely not decoys, maybe 70/30 that they were Patriots. Which is a lot better than most of the claimed hits. That isn't lecturing. We had plenty of equivalent theories when Jacinda Ardern was in power here of her imminently selling out the country- which no doubt foreigners regarded as being, hmm, a bit funny too. Yet their proponents thought were imminent and realistic. And yeah, it's kind of crappy to go at it this way because it's clearly something you genuinely feel strongly about but... well. If you're (collectively or individually) really, really worried about Hungary deciding to invade the last thing you (collectively) should have been doing is sending arms off to Ukraine instead of retaining them against the Magyar Menace. The obvious hyperbole of comparing Slovakia to Belarus- we are both agreed you won't be joining the Union State, I presume- really doesn't help with anything else either. (As I recall, you were about as convinced as me that Russia wouldn't invade in 2022; I doubt the act of making a prediction influences things either way. Doesn't matter anyway, the only thing certain if you make predictions about future events is that you will get things wrong. I'm certainly happy to go on the record that you won't get invaded by Hungary any time soon though, whether it's Fico in charge or not)
  6. Somewhat against my better judgement... Yes, as close as Belarus. Slovakia going to sign up to the Union State then? Because that's how close Belarus is. That's getting beyond mere hyperbole and heading into ultrabole territory. Rest easy though, I'm sure as a country of Europe you could expect the same level of support against Hungarian invasion (more ultrabole) as that other non NATO Euro country Ukraine has got against its invader. After all, the Principles of Europe, the west and all that is good and righteous in the world would be at stake again, yes. Really though, if a majority of people wanted to leave NATO in a referendum where's the problem and what would you do to stop it? Roll the T-54s Abrams and Leos in? Might need a catchy name to sell it like, hmm, Bratislava Spring? Or you could accept that the majority of people wanted to leave and let them even if you disagreed personally.
  7. At the risk of defending Abrams a bit more than is really warranted* 'somehow Palpatine returned' as done in RoS does actually have prior precedent in the SW universe, to whit Dark Empire (1992 comic). Palpatine's return there is near identical to the one in RoS, ie somehow his 'essence' takes over a clone, and there are several other similarities too. Indeed that comic has had quite a lot of elements from it adapted into Disney canon in general (I think Boba Fett's survival as shown in the Disney TV series is first shown in DE, but I'm not 100% certain of it and can't be bothered checking; also fairly sure it was one of the few comics it's known that George Lucas actually read). *especially since it means he's even more derivative than TFA made him look in the first place
  8. That's the crucial difference with most other instances of bad writing; Abrams got written into a corner by someone else, not himself, and had to make the best of a bad situation. It's doubtful even a genuinely good writer (which Abrams is far from, though he certainly isn't awful either) could have extricated themselves from that situation seamlessly. Ultimately not even Johnson's fault, that blame lies with the extraordinarily slack supervision/ oversight/ planning of LucasArts/ Disney with respect to their billion dollar franchise. In contrast many other much derided examples of bad writing were entirely the writers' fault. Classic example probably being Euron's infamous dragon ambush in GoT S8 even more so than Dany going bonkers because of bells or Charles Xavier becoming king. Made no sense, required Dany to be a drooling moron who'd forgotten about the Iron Fleet (despite them being mentioned two? episodes earlier), needed her and her dragons to be blind and not notice an entire fleet and used a deus ex machina laser designated ballista which was ineffective both later and earlier in the series. At least Captain Cold and his javelin (and Palpatine, as mentioned) were supernatural.
  9. You're not really independent if you're not allowed your own foreign policy. (Ironically the person doing the most damage to EU foreign policy consistency at the moment is arguably von der Leyen. The EU has a foreign minister and it isn't her, yet she toodles off to Israel to shake hands with Bibi against Borrell's advice. Why would anyone pay any attention to him now?) Zelensky awards SF soldiers at Odessa port, they're hit after he leaves. Probably better for them than another flag planting gimmick that ends in 80% casualties at least. Don't think it's coincidence Russia released footage of other meetings Zelensky has had with Russian drones watching him, obvious implication is that if they wanted to target him they could. Anyone who thinks he survived due to extraordinary Ukrainian competence was... somewhat hopeful, even without Naftali Bennet's confirmation.
  10. Can't be decoys, only Russian systems fall for them. Dunno about there being no complaints about the Su-34 thing from Russians, mostly they seem to just refer everyone to FighterBomber (who's just a tad annoyed at constantly being asked about it, and hasn't confirmed any lost Su-34 recently) and spam videos of continuing FAB arrivals. When it comes down to it the only evidence Ukraine has provided is a video of some burnt grass whose original was uploaded days before the date of the shootdown they claimed from it and saying that the 'skies were clear' for the first time which is kind of disproved by the FAB videos. So there isn't much to actively refute; it mostly comes down to the truthiness level an individual associates with the Ukrainian MoD.
  11. Some... rather odd translation choices in the Russian transcription. You'd think they'd take some pains to translate Sukhoi 24 properly at least rather than having chatgpt or the VK equivalent make a hash of it ('limiting factor is 24 shells/ 24 munitions' -->--> 'limiting factor is Sukhoi 24'). Certainly not as damning as the Russians are trying to make out, though equally not as innocent as others are making it. I did rather like the ~"The recording is Russian Propaganda!! but probably genuine" headline we got out of it though.
  12. If that were the case it would likely be the reasoning in both respects. Though at that point we'd likely have to talk about things bilaterally rather than as NATO since it's clear that some members won't support it being troops sent under direct NATO command. Hence all the bilateral defence agreements Zelensky has been signing recently.
  13. French mercenaries being there is absolutely definite. That isn't really an issue though, so long as they're not employees of the French State. Or at least maintain some plausible deniability about the whole thing. I don't think many people who are paying attention would be- at all- surprised to find NATO special forces present. You're just meant to pretend that they're not, and you're especially meant to pretend they're not doing things like entering targeting information.
  14. That is the problem, what they're doing there. Don't need them to transport the missile, don't need them to attach it to the plane. OTOH, someone does have to put in the targeting information. SCALP/ Storm Shadow are flight plan based, so it's not a trivial task, and they're not supposed to be used outside of Ukraine. Plenty of reason to suspect that's what they're doing by elimination, because what else would call for boots on the ground and get the French and Brits upset when it's revealed? It's also unfortunate timing with Macron's recent comments about sending in the troops. Or to put it another way, imagine if a UK warship got sunk by the Houthis and the Russians were found to be not just supplying the P-800 used, nor just giving them satellite information, but were entering the targeting information. New Zealand may be near antipodal to London but even we would be deafened by the outraged squealing and demands for retaliation and invocation of Article 5 for the obvious Act of War. If it were a French ship we'd probably have a surreptitious giggle about the whole thing, given who committed the only act of international terrorism to occur here to that time.
  15. The first Ukrainian Abrams has been fairly comprehensively destroyed. By what who knows, since the footage seems to have been shot by a potato then captured off the screen by a second potato. Identifiable and shown well and truly on fire though.
  16. Kind of classic that. Very little coverage of it, and some pretty choice quotes too. "It is tragic to see the hate and incitement toward Israel expressed in such a horrific way". Indeed; my heart bleeds the River Jordan for you, poor Israeli consul. Perhaps the most moral army in the world could stop broiling people with White Phosphorus some time if you hate people getting burnt so much? No? Didn't think so. Also, praise the lord, the police chief confirmed the consulate was safe.. ...now try imagining Reuters' coverage of Bouazizi including a statement that "It is tragic to see the hate and incitement towards Ben Ali expressed in such a horrific way" from the local governor and the police chief confirming the statue he did it under was thankfully undamaged. Not quite sure what the equivalent of shoehorning in a mention of October 7th is though.
  17. Most recent example of (politically effective) self immolation was the guy in Tunisia (Muhammed Bouazizi) who ended up bringing down Ben Ali and, uh, sparked the Arab Spring. Apart from that probably the most famous example was Duc (and other monks) in South Vietnam bringing down Diem just prior to the Vietnam War really kicking off. Also traditional practice in some places eg Sati in India, though you have to wonder how keen the women were as opposed to their relatives not wanting to have to look after them.
  18. Not sure the exact method that Navalny died means that much; he wasn't sent to an arctic penal colony to take the air. Well, not in the classic sense. Only real significance is Budanov contradicting the leaders who insist Putin personally strangled Navalny while he was saving some cute kittens, collecting clothes for orphans and personally rewriting the Russian Constitution to make Pro NATO studies a compulsory school subject.
  19. Last time it happened I suggested S-200 as the only plausible option if it was Ukraine. Still a lot of problems with that though- right on the edge of effective range and S-200 launchers are fixed, not mobile. At ~270km from the front line there's a very narrow range of places it could have been launched from, basically a semi circle around Vuhledar (Kurakhove <--> Veliyka Novosilka). While they might be able to jury rig a launcher it would not be trivial since the rocket is 7t and 10m long. Can't just bung it into a S-300 TEL or similar.
  20. Maybe mythic F-22. The supposed S-400 launches were from Mariupol, the crash site is in Krasnodar oblast of Russia proper (Trudovaya Armenia). That's so far behind the lines it has to be yet another friendly fire incident. And I'm sure advocating for the invasion of their countries will get the Chinese, Koreans and Iranians to stop supplying Russia. Much like suggesting a joint attack on Warsaw with Russia will get the Polish farmers to reconsider their blockade.
  21. "I've never seen [Jaws 4], but by all accounts it's terrible. However I have seen the house that it built, and it's terrific"
  22. Yeah 3rd AB or 3rd separate; Azov, as was. There's a difference between sources as to whether they refused, or were never meant to go in in the first place- which seems to be broadly along lines of support for Zaluzhny and Sirsky respectively. The internal 3rd Brigade sources had them being ordered in for sure, but you can't preclude that being deliberate disinformation; indeed that would be distinctly plausible. It seems extremely likely they were meant to at least hold the Coke Plant though, since that was very strong defensively and outside the pocket, so not in any imminent threat of being surrounded. Even if they decided a different defensive line further back would be necessary in the longer term it was still an essential hold in the short term to cover an orderly retreat. Losing it too early suggests something went very wrong; either a refusal or a panic. Neither of which is good. Dunno about the lack of crowing, the Russians have been kind of weird about prisoners throughout the war. They could have easily disprove the Snake Island fight to the death story immediately but seemed to do so both accidentally and belatedly. The only time they seem to have done much crowing was about Azovstal where there were a lot of prisoners all in one go; and those prisoners were Azov. While I doubt the 110th were overly popular with the DPR troops the Russians proper don't seem to have borne them any particular ill will, and they seem to have been surrendering in dribs and drabs such that the Russians don't even know how many they were taking.
  23. Neither side are at all accurate. And the OSINT guys are well into "here's how Bernie can still win!" territory*. More losses than the Ukrainian side for the Russian is pretty much a given given the situation, though the shambolic retreat would not have helped at all and likely brought the loss ratio down significantly. The main problem for Ukraine is that they're now lost nearly their entire urban defensive anchor system around Donetsk city (Avdiivka and Marinka) over a comparatively short period. It may (just) be less territory than Ukraine took in their 'counter'offensive, but it's of way more strategic value than Robotyne and Klishcheeva and is way more built up. The other issue is the supposed refusal of units to obey orders which has been reported on by western media. Some of that may be scenario fulfillment for those who preferred Zaluzhny to Sirsky but if it's even slightly true it's a major issue since it will infect every aspect ("sure, we'll hold, we'll attack when ordered to... but what if the guys next to us run? Got to be prepared"). While I don't think anyone could blame the 110th for cracking as they'd held Avdiivka since the outset the main culprit was not conscripts nor a weak new brigade, it was 3rd separate/Azov. Supposedly volunteer, an over strength rather than under strength brigade and highly motivated. *we had one of the Oryx guys trying to pass off a Leo2 and Bradley as Russian losses two days ago. That at least was so obvious it got corrected (but also so obvious it should never have happened in the first place), but you can imagine the number of times things weren't quite as obvious, and didn't.
  24. There was some talk a few weeks back of PoE2 having a very long tail sales wise, and PoE 3 being a possibility again because of it- and because of BG3's success. (PoE2 was far superior to 1 in every respect, imo)
  25. Sarex bro, why respond to people whose opinions are worthless. I mean jesus christ, citing HoonDing as starting the discussion? Has he said anything seriously in his entire posting career- even going back through virumor/ Drudanae- in Off Topic? Maybe 1 in a 100, and that post very very obviously wasn't that 1. Doesn't really matter if Obama has a different geopolitical view from GWB though, if they end up doing the same things and the only difference is Obama looking mildly concerned. The difference between Torquemada setting someone on fire and me doing it is that Torquemada thinks God tells him to while I want to... make some smores, maybe? Torquemada's reason may sound better than general psychopathy, but God (morality) can tell him to do literally anything and he'll do so while thinking he's in the right and doing it for other people. For the poor bloke getting toasty the difference is zero and the actual justification is political, old Torquie's just convinced himself that it's moral. Now, some might think comparing Torquemada to Obama is unfair, and I'd agree to an extent; but when it comes right down to it it doesn't matter if Obama had moral qualms about droning people half a world away on dodgy intelligence while Bush didn't because Bush Believed in the Inherent Goodness of the American Cause. Obama still did it anyway and even stepped up the program. Indeed, in some ways that would make Obama worse, not better, since he 'knows' what he's doing is wrong. You'll get people saying that the neoliberal worldview is completely different and so much superior to the neoconservative one because it's all about helping the oppressed while neoconservative is all about changing the world to favour [the US, not even sure other countries have neocons] instead. The practicalities are that both worldviews are exactly the same in everything except the rhetorical aspects; ie it's only the justification that's different. If Torquemada sets someone on fire to save their soul that sounds better than me doing so so I can steal their gold but again, ain't no difference for the victim.
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