Zoraptor

That's been gone through 1515616855311653156156516 times that Ukraine claimed that without actual evidence, let alone proof; and the numbers they claimed barely shifted the dial. The point of the claim was simply to muddy the waters so people would state it as fact. No other reason. Indeed, it's very easy to tell that the vast majority are genuine dead Ukrainians. Ukraine tried to renege on the body swap deal back in June 2025, and was forced to back down when Russia started publicly listing the identification of those they were going to return. Which of course Ukraine objected to, because it'd make it impossible to reject them; and because it generated enough outrage from the relatives that they had to back down. That would hardly work if they were actually all unknown soldiers- and especially would not if they were unidentified Russians. You'd have heard nothing but shouting from the Ukrainian side about how the Russians were publishing false lists and they'd trot out families non stop to complain; all shown in great detail in the western press. Which simply has not happened. They just said it was fake and hoped that would be enough. The whole point of Russia returning them is that Ukraine simply will not pay out benefits for 'missing', only dead, so they have an absolute motive for returning genuine and identifiable bodies. It costs Ukraine a great deal of money.

Wouldn't be all that surprising if Iran already has mined the Straits. Or at least, 'mined' them. There will be a lot of drone type developments at play that will be broadly indistinguishable from 'mines'. Indeed, there are multiple varieties of 'mine' that have very little in common with the classic floating porcupine design. Iran is known to have rocket propelled mines, that are seabed deployed and effective from ~200m depth. The- pretty obvious, to anyone with two brain cells to rub together- negative of sinking Iran's entire navy is that there really isn't any drawback to denying the Straits to everyone in response. It's also pretty obvious to anyone following Ukraine that a country without a conventional navy can still do a lot of damage unconventionally. Shame Trump and Hegseth have to share the same brain cell, really.

Oil prices at $108 p/b. Gulf countries starting to wind down production as they've run out of storage. Mojtada Khamenei appointed to succeed his father. Absolutely no apparent means to deescalate. Trump must be getting sick of so much pure and unadulterated winning. (Perhaps the only positive is watching hasbara vainly trying to maintain their narrative against a veritable tsunami of anti Trump invective. Well that and all the people poking fun at Operation Epic/Epstein/AIPAC Fur(r)y)

The body return figures are only really interesting because Ukraine claims to have recaptured a lot of land over the past few months, but the ratio of bodies returned remains in 20ish to 1 territory against them. And they have recaptured a lot of land, though much of it is land Ukraine and pro Ukraine mappers never admitted to having lost; but still, for these purposes Russia definitely hasn't been advancing at a 20:1 type ratio since maybe August(?). I agree with most of the rest- attacking Iran is actually a disaster for Ukraine for multiple reasons; and even the positives are mostly rubbish, eg people saying Russia won't be able to import any Shaheds any more when Russia hasn't imported them since early 2024. But, Russia was never selling oil at 40USD, that's not all that much above the break even point for Saudi's sweet light oil. They'd literally literally have been losing money on every barrel pumped, not just selling below the theoretical/ nominal break even point. That figure comes about by subtracting all the costs from the list price, then saying it's being sold at a $25 discount. That's double dipping, since you don't subtract those costs from anyone else. Most of the info is that it's being sold at roughly a $5 discount to India, which is more than enough on the amounts shipped for them to have pretty blatantly ignored the US down to saying they didn't need a sanctions waiver because they'd never stopped buying Russian oil yesterday. It's a billion dollars ++ p/a that Russia isn't getting, but that certainly ain't a third of their income.

Yeah, that article is a bit... over positive, perhaps even verging on Hegsethian. Draws some very long bows both in how well things are going and for the interpretation of statements. “The US retains formidable economic strength and possesses unparalleled military power globally,” Zheng Yongnian, a Chinese political scientist who has advised the Chinese government at different levels, was quoted recently by the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post. “Despite numerous issues within its political and social spheres, we absolutely must not underestimate America’s capabilities.” That statement essentially states that the analyst thinks the US is in decline- 'retains' is, after all, a term used for something that is diminishing, not increasing or being maintained at the same level. He doesn't say it specifically about the military, but then you can find plenty of US analysts who think China is catching up there even if the US is still a decent amount ahead.

Not really that easy. Iran doesn't have anything specialist that has the range and numbers, assuming the US isn't stupid enough to park their carriers a hundred or so km from Iran's shoreline at least. No oniks/ zircon, no YJ## except maybe some old silkworms. Some home grown stuff with unconfirmed claims and details is all. Indeed, if you want a reason for Trump's 'vibe' that Iran was planning to attack the US them nearing a deal with China to buy something that could hit carriers (CM-302s) is a decent bet. It would certainly have made them far more vulnerable That leaves drones of various types, and ballistic missiles. Even though ballistic missiles are fast a ship may have moved multiple km in their flight time, if you even have an accurate idea of where they were at launch. Giving them the guidance and manoevrability needed to hit a moving target is also Difficult. Drones are slow and typically don't have much payload. Mostly though, if the US actually does attempt to escort ships through the Straits they'll have plenty of targets, and in a far more vulnerable position. Don't think there's any doubt that Netanyahu lied to Trump, extensively. From his pov even if Trump woke up to the fact- unlikely, he's hardly the sort for self reflection- once it's started it's started. Even if Trump wanted to he can't back out now without antagonising everyone.

The fundamental problem with evil choices is that they're so often just chaotic stupid. Not even moustache twirling cliché (alt keys back, I can once again let my pretentiousness run wild), just out and out psychopathy for the sake of being able to say there's choice. No doubt it's partly due to developers knowing that most players will never pick evil choices, so putting less effort in, but still.

Iran War could reopen debate on Russian Natural Gas Norway says. EU ambassador not allowed to inspect damage to Druzhba oil pipeline – FT. Absolute lols. Countdown to NordStream repair being 'strategically essential' starts in... Really, whatever the platitudes most European leaders are spouting they must be absolutely livid behind the scenes. Norway- which has followed the US lead on pretty much everything including a lot of military adventurism and is Europe's largest gas producer- floating the idea of buying more Russian gas rather than less is a pretty clear indicator there's no willingness to reward the US for getting Qatari gas shut off with more gas contracts*. One thing you have to say about Trump, he has at least found a positive about that blancmange Keir Starmer: he most certainly isn't Winston Churchill. *for extra lols, the government here announced a plan to build a LNG terminal, last week. Sums up their competency perfectly. Funded, of course, by a levy since it makes zero financial sense and no private entity in its right mind would build it. Entirely done to pander to Trump; now looks even more stupid.

Only KDP are pro Turkey. Or really, pro Barzani getting massive kickbacks from Erdogan's son in law for selling him oil at a discount (same son in law that was buying ISIS oil a decade ago; not just Trump who has a dodgy relation by marriage). That's 40ish% of 'the Kurds' in Iraq. PUK is about the same size, but- broadly- pro Iran. They were the ones who refused to fight the PMUs in 2017 after making an Iran brokered deal, leading to the KDP running away inside a day. Everything suggests even the KDP will not help, because they really don't want to end up fighting the pro Iranian PMUs. The other problem ought to be obvious to anyone with any ability to think empathetically. So it wouldn't be a surprise if Trump misses it. Soon as you start sending in ethnic militias from another country you're going to get capital letter National Resistance because it's trivial to frame that as the US trying to break up your country. Trump has already proven many of the accusations leveled at him by the Iranian government as true- Israel's poodle, negotiating in bad faith etc- and getting KDP or Azeris or Balochs or MEK to invade reinforces that. Indeed, it'd be more than enough evidence to suggest that the only thing Trump and Israel wants is to cause perpetual regional chaos.

If the americans actually believe that they're fricking bonkers. The Houthis effectivedly closed the Bab al Mandab despite literally not having a navy nor 5% of the resources Iran has; nor even physically holding the coast near it- Hodeidah is around 200km away. And the Bab al Mandab is far less constricted than the straits of Hormuz. Absolute lolz. The largest anti Iran faction of Kurds that is active in Iran is PJAK, a sister organisation to the YPG in Syria. The same YPG Trump stabbed in the back barely a month ago to utter silence from the same media who trumpeted their bravery at Kobani 12 years ago. Unlikely to get the backing of the PUK either, whatever platitudes they may make. So, he'd be relying on bribing Barzani Iteration to use the same Kurds that ran away from the Iranian backed PMUs at Kirkuk in 2017 instead. Sums up Trump's shambolic foreign policy about as well as their incoherent messaging has*. Also one of the best indications that Netanyahu got him on side by spouting bollocks about how easy it'd all be. *I mean really, the Trump admin has been disorganised and messy before with messaging, but this has been absolute next level.

Not the same guy. Easy mistake to make since even the Danish royal family has a more imaginative and varied naming scheme than the Pahlavis. Reza Pahlavi (I, long dead, generally referred to as Reza Khan/ Shah for reasons that will become obvious) got into power in a coup and got chucked out by the Soviets and British during WW2. He got succeeded by his son, Reza Pahlavi (II, died 1980?, generally referred to as Muhammed Pahlavi to distinguish him from his dad and son) when he abdicated. He was the Mossadegh coup, SAVAK death/ torture squads etc guy who managed to convince Iranians that Khomeini was a better alternative than him. His son Reza Pahlavi (III) is the current iteration currently wandering around praising Bibi and Trump for blowing up his countrymen.

Yeah, I guess I could see that. He did need to constantly reinforce his glamour on Celebrimbor and it seems his loss of influence on Galadriel is permanent. It seems unlikely that most men would be able to shake off that sort of influence though. The only real issue with that is that canonically he only really needed to subvert the eminently subvertable Ar-Pharazon to dominate Middle Earth. Which is in some ways a bit of a problem with the source material. If Sauron wanted to dominate ME, why send the Numenoreans off on what he must have known was a suicide mission to attack the Valar instead of just using them for the job? Because that's what happens in epic sagas, same as the perils of magic rings...

Netflix did not want WB's gaming division at all; their bid was specifically for studio and streaming assets. So it would have been sold off very cheaply or- probably, given its main assets are linked to WB IPs- shut down. Though it's unlikely Paramount specifically wants the gaming part either their offer is at least for the whole thing.

There's zero chance of there not being a succession plan for Khamenei especially. He's old, and not in great health.

That result really ought to be the death knell for Starmer's leadership. Blocking Burnham from standing was done for purely selfish reasons (to prevent him being a potential alternative leader, for those not following UK politics) and likely made the result even worse. Favourite Starmer fact: his Labour Party got half a million votes less than the 'unelectable' Jeremy Corbyn did the previous time around. He won entirely due to the electoral system with Tory vote being split by Reform and a turnout of less than 60%, not due to growing Labour's vote base. He barely even grew the vote share, and given how awful the Tories were that should have triggered some real worries over his actual popularity.

Another body exchange, this time 1000 Ukrainian to 35 Russian. Definitely should have had the hundreds of Russians killed in Kupiansk this time, but the ratio i still in the high 20s to 1. Next time, the hundreds killed in Zaporizhia oblast maybe.

Don't know for sure, but that's certainly what I've heard as well. I don't think there's much doubt that Steam has added features which are designed to be addictive every bit as much as, say, Facebook has too.

Valve getting sued in New York for loot boxes. Or at least, that's the headline version. Seems to be more about there being a marketplace for selling the results of loot boxes than the mechanic itself, which is why they're targeting Valve/ Steam specifically instead of other who just use loot boxes. IMO, should have happened way sooner.

The mere act of casting votes is certainly not of itself a good thing. If there's no real choice it simply acts to grant legitimacy which hasn't actually been earned, which is of course why a lot of authoritarian countries still hold elections. If you look at the last US Presidential election, which Trump won handily, the proportions were: Harris ~31% Trump ~32% Didn't Vote ~36% ie ~2/3 of people in the US didn't vote for its President, and more than 1/3 either didn't like either candidate enough to vote for them nor dislike a candidate enough to vote against them. Not exactly healthy. (Really, the Roman Republic model was an awful one to choose if you wanted proper (little d) democracy since it started breaking down as soon as Rome stopped being a regional power; and along similar lines as you see in the US. Probably better than Athenian Big D Democracy at least though; nothing quite as unique in history as stampeding voters into voting to execute all your- victorious- admirals, rejecting peace and then losing the war spectacularly a year later)

That's Andrew Mountbatten-Pervert, since he isn't using the Prince title any more. And arrested for leaking economic policy to Jeff rather than boffing 17 year olds in questionable circumstances.

Yep, it doesn't really take anything into account except the money spent. All it does is encourage wasteful spending, system gaming and accountancy tricks- like pretty much every other Key Performance Indicator.

Overall spending is a bit of a blunt metric anyway, for much the same reason as gdp nominal- it doesn't actually measure what the money buys, just how much is spent. Russia produces ~7 tanks for the cost of a single Leo2, and practically they're both likely to be destroyed by a thousand dollar drone made in China. The problem rump NATO has is that so much is outsourced to the US, and reliance on fancy overpriced gear that sounds great in lieu of stuff that just works. Not being able to spin up shell production properly, in the EU*, after 4 years and allegedly still being outproduced by North Korea alone kind of epitomises it; it's really really basic stuff that has been around for 150 years because it works, it should be cheap and easy, and there isn't really anything that can go wrong with it. *you do occasionally hear about how production has increased, but that increase largely comes from buying off non EU sources. They do at least have France with an independent nuclear deterrent, and while no longer EU Britain could make theirs non dependent on the US with a bit of time. It would certainly be... interesting to see how the Rules Based Order deals with (practically, justifies; not like they'd actually sanction Poland or Germany) one of its own members breaking the NPT though.

If there's one thing Trump has proven it's that Europe does need another military union/ alliance. NATO minus the US would mostly lose the ability to wander around invading random countries- ie 'force projection'- which may be a big loss if you want to have the North AtlanticTO fighting China in the Pacific, but isn't much of a loss for a defensive alliance in the geographic North Atlantic. Europe does love convincing themselves that everything is going to work out if they just stick their fingers in their ears and sing loud enough for long enough though.

Answer is that it probably wouldn't inconvenience me much, since I doubt I'd have much problem circumventing anything short of a full Great Firewall of New Zealand. However, compulsory use of the internet for storage of important information like your identity needs opposing on principle, especially when it's done mostly so politicians can take An Achievement to The Electorate. Last month a compulsory use privately run health database got hacked here that was used by a third of the country's population. It appears they gained access through brute forcing a password, and much of the data wasn't encrypted- about as basic mistakes as it's possible to make. So far, zero consequences for the guys running it. You also know that people will go full UK and let Peter Thiel/ Meta/ Cambridge Analytica et alia have access to all that lovely data.

Is it going to be harder to circumvent than the Aussie one? My nephew and all his friends are still happily posting on their toktiks, chatsnaps and instagrammes months into the ban, and he's a pretty obvious 12 year old.