I was going to hop in here about a month ago and predict that Trump loses the election. I didn't believe that the polls were completely accurate. However, I didn't think the issue with national polling, which wasn't as bad as people thought last presidential cycle, were all that crazy. The important polling really is the state by state polling, and I know various organizations are trying to get a better handle in key states. I still think the election is Biden's to lose, and that's mostly because Trump is a sociopath. I'll gladly muddle through the diatribes of Trump hate around here, but I don't believe the crazy stuff Trump does as an individual have made much of a difference. Before the 'Rona, we were in excellent shape. My litmus test to see if you're a blind hater or not is if you deny actual data about the state of the economy before the pandemic. If you talk it down, you're doing so for nakedly partisan reasons. So, the big reason Trump isn't doing better is because of his personal failings, and they are many. People's lives were going well and, minus Trump's vexing persona, he would have walked away with re-election. Then the 'Rona came. He made legitimate policy mistakes that could have hurt him a little, but his incontinent character and multiple... weird statements were the big problem. The press hates him, and so any stupid mistake is highlighted. The hydroxychloroquine kefuffle was just silly. His endorsement was ill advised, but it wasn't earth shattering or even all that important. On the other hand, his crazy assed question to Birx about sunshine and bleach rightfully drew harsh criticism. No rational person would hear those comments and not be confused at best. I mean, what the hell was the guy saying? Then George Floyd was brutalized by police. Peaceful protests turn ugly and then the real motives of the left come out. Defund the police. White people must kneel and atone for sins they personally did not commit. Suggesting that all lives matter, including black lives, can lead to consequences in your life and in your job. This sort of stuff ends up hurting legitimate causes. It simply does. This is not a winning message for Democrats, which is probably why they've more or less stepped away from the strategy.
Now, I'll say that, while in my opinion Trump probably loses the upcoming election, I'm not really sure. There's no way to trust current polling in this atmosphere. People are afraid to tell pollsters anything but what they think they should say. That's always true a little bit for Trump, but I'm telling you that it's gone crazy. There are people who truthfully said they weren't going to vote for Trump last month who still say it now even though their feelings have shifted. The problem for Democrats is that they tend to match crazy for crazy with Trump. I rarely resort to profanity, even in person, but the United States is a complete ****show right now. This is the one way Trump can actually cause real harm. He's capricious and crazy in an unsettled time when we need real leadership at the top.
The thing is, we were already heading to where we are as a society. Trump just got us there faster. He had two things going for him that people like me felt justified all his bad qualities: he's a disruptor and he defies the relentless march of wokeness in our society. In my opinion, the quality of disruptor is like any medicine. It's got a therapeutic range after which it becomes toxic. With multiple traumas in our society, Trump as disruptor goes from harsh medicine we need into a toxic range that is disturbing to me personally. At this point, I doubt people like me can jump ship on him because we believe society has become unhinged by wokeness that is unforgiving and unrelenting. I just hope the medicine doesn't end us all. You can rest assured of one thing. People like me aren't a huge number in Trump's corner, but he simply cannot win without us. In the states he needs to win, he can't lose even the small number of us he has. If he does, I don't have to hedge my bets. He simply loses. His hardcore support is sizeable in this country, but it's not enough to put him over the top. It's not even close.