@Darkpriest
An op-ed on the oil situation by the ex-chancellor of my ex-political party (I left few months ago, when he was removed from his position, by non-transparent means)
It supports my conclusion from the Deutsche Well video I shared you, few days ago, where I have mentioned, that it is not in the interest of Saudi Arabia, to have very high oil prices for a very long time. (Google translated)
"THE TIME OF THE STONE WAS NOT ENDED MANY THAT THE STONES ARE OUT 🛢️ Or, as Russia's economic destiny is largely in the hands of the Saudis, and why it doesn't suit the Saudis when the Russians mine little and oil prices are too high.
The popular story of Russian trolls and their useful idiots tells how Russia will easily find a market for its oil after European sanctions. The reality is that their production is declining because European consumption cannot replace Russia.
This creates a hole in the market that someone will have to fill. And either the OPEC oil cartel countries or the United States. The Champions League of International Diplomacy takes place here.
Because:
Saudi and the Middle East, in particular, are fabulously rich in high oil prices
However, it is not in the interest of the Saudis that prices be too high in the long run. At high prices, it pays for Americans to extract shale oil. 👉 The Saudis just have to tuck the mallet into the sand and oil will gush out. Therefore, their mining costs are around three dollars per barrel. Shale oil production is expensive and worthwhile when the price of oil is at least around $ 40 per barrel.
American capitalism is relentless. The market has a free hand, and when oil prices fell to historic lows last time during a pandemic ($ 11 a barrel, thanks to the OPEC-Russia oil war, that's another evening), about 46 shale oil companies rumbled (went bankrupt). which left behind an ax of $ 56 billion. At $ 120 a barrel, however, their time is up again. With such a margin, it is an investor's dream.
The last thing the Saudi want is for American miners to re-run and flood the world with shale oil, cutting them off their market pie again. 👉 Saudi people have a lot of oil. So much and for so long that they "threaten" them that they won't have time to sell it all. The developed world, the largest buyers of oil, is moving away from fossil fuels, and once, in a relatively short future, perhaps sometime in 2050, the time will come when no one will care.
Because the Stone Age did not end because the stones ran out. Even the era of fossil fuels will not end due to the shortage of fossil fuels (although the Moon predicted something different ten years ago).
That is why the Saudi need to mine a lot and ideally at the best possible prices in terms of a gold average price. However, if prices are too high, American drillers will tear them off their cake. If prices are too low, they will not earn enough to save in the future to buy more English football clubs.
CONCLUSION: HOW DOES RUSSIA?
Current prices are too high for the Saudis. And it's only a matter of time before they let the tap down and oil prices return to some "normal" pre-crisis levels. And how will it affect the Russians? So that they get even less money for their oil, which they no longer have to sell to anyone than before.
Easy math: 📈 a lot of oil sold, for a lot of money = a lot of money for war excesses and keeping the population in check through social packages. 📉 Little oil sold, little money = the collapse of an economy built on oil exports."