Coronavirus: Continuing Vigilance

[Keyrock]

I think there are several subsets of people that are vehemently against the opening up of states. There are those that are legitimately scared, and I feel for those people and have nothing bad to say about them. There are those that are in states continuing the lockdown and are jealous of people living in areas opening up and they feel if they have to stay home on lockdown, they want others to have to be locked down too. Then there are some that have grow accustomed to not having to go to work and collecting unemployment and wish they could just stay home and collect unemployment forever.

I'm not a scientist, I can't tell you if it's too soon to open up, I guess we'll know in a few weeks. I'm hoping for the best. Here's the thing though, if we don't start opening now, what are we waiting for? Flatten the curve? Curve is already flattened. Prevent hospitals from being over run? Most hospitals are at half capacity or less now, some are having to lay off staff because they are so empty. Availability of testing? Most places AFAIK have plenty of tests readily available now. What do we wait for, a vaccine? You're not going to see a vaccine for at least a year, if we ever get one. We can't stay locked down forever, we have to face this eventually.

Edited May 20, 2020 by Keyrock

[Guard Dog]

To tell you the truth I think this quarantine is my new religion.  I'm finding I'm much happier not interacting with people. Our bi-weekly WebEx calls are all the social interaction I want. And even that seems tedious. 

[Guard Dog]

[Keyrock]

8 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

To tell you the truth I think this quarantine is my new religion.  I'm finding I'm much happier not interacting with people. Our bi-weekly WebEx calls are all the social interaction I want. And even that seems tedious. 

If there's a silver lining to this pandemic, maybe this has/will inspire some companies to restrusture their work force and have more people work from home that don't really need to physically be at the office.

[Volourn]

Or, better yet they'll trim the fat as they realize their workforce is too big so unemployment  goes up long term.

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, ComradeMaster said:

https://www.newsweek.com/china-wuhan-wet-markets-ban-coronavirus-wild-animals-1505401

 

Yeah.

They did exactly the same thing after SARS original- and lifted the ban quietly a year later. It's like that children story with that Chinese Premier that eats too much honey and gets stuck in his rabbit friend's burrow entrance, you can be told not to eat any more, you can say that you're not going to eat any more, but then you see those delicious looking pangolins and bats and mmm, novel zoonotic pathogen redux.

[ComradeYellow]

Let's invade them, Eastern Front style.  I got dibs on Xi-engrad!

[Malcador]

5 hours ago, Keyrock said:

If there's a silver lining to this pandemic, maybe this has/will inspire some companies to restrusture their work force and have more people work from home that don't really need to physically be at the office.

Then they'll realize if the workers can work remotely, they can find some foreigner to replace them

Edited May 21, 2020 by Malcador

[ShadySands]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Then they'll realize if the workers can work remotely, they can find some foreigner to replace them

That's literally what happened at my last job

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Then they'll realize if the workers can work remotely, they can find some foreigner to replace them

You just described Xi's long term strategy for moving jobs to China

[Skarpen]

17 minutes ago, Gorth said:

You just described Xi's long term strategy for moving jobs to China

Then why all remote jobs go to India?

[ShadySands]

22 minutes ago, Gorth said:

You just described Xi's long term strategy for moving jobs to China

Why save on real estate alone when you can also save on salaries

[MedicineDan]

Like I said, I'm going to reserve any response vis a vis the drug discussion from earlier.  I'm not invested enough in the drug itself to keep duking it out.  I guess if I did, it would go in my ten year bet I've had going since right when things got hot and heavy with this at the end of February, but I'm reserving that for the big five.

As to the lockdown, I've been saying for months, also since February, that we had to be careful that the solution wasn't worse than the problem.  There's a line in Plato's Apology that has struck me through this period.  You could read it a few different ways, but the way I remember it is "Not for the sake of much time, men of Athens, will you earn the title 'murderer of Socrates, a wise man.'   For even though I am not wise, your enemies will call you such in order to attack you."  It's been a while since I've read it in either version, but it just eerily resounds to the current time, only  in a different way.  The steps we're taking are increasingly shaving off more years of human life in the long run than the months or years we're saving in the short term for a relatively tiny portion of the population.

 I'm very likely the most genuinely emo person in this place, but my assessment is that we should not significantly lower the life expectancy for the bulk of society for the sake of little time for a tiny few.  I guess, at the end of things, as emo as I've always been, I'm more of a bean counter.  The numbers don't lie and, unfortunately, I can read the numbers.

Edited May 21, 2020 by MedicineDan

[rjshae]

15 hours ago, Keyrock said:

I'm not a scientist, I can't tell you if it's too soon to open up, I guess we'll know in a few weeks. I'm hoping for the best. Here's the thing though, if we don't start opening now, what are we waiting for? Flatten the curve? Curve is already flattened. Prevent hospitals from being over run? Most hospitals are at half capacity or less now, some are having to lay off staff because they are so empty. Availability of testing? Most places AFAIK have plenty of tests readily available now. What do we wait for, a vaccine? You're not going to see a vaccine for at least a year, if we ever get one. We can't stay locked down forever, we have to face this eventually.

I think the goal is to reach a baseline level of cases where contact tracing can feasibly keep it contained. The hiring of contact tracers is on the order of thousands. If you have millions of cases, then there's no way they could be sufficiently effective. If we're not in lockdown, just a few missed cases can rapidly spread the pandemic again and we're back to flattening the curve. Hence, there's a case goal to reach.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/25/844088634/when-is-it-safe-to-ease-social-distancing-heres-what-one-model-says-for-each-sta

Quote

 

What is the maximum number of new infections that states could handle with their current testing and contact tracing capacity?

IHME's answer: 1 new infection per million people in a given state. They estimate that states with this level of transmission should be able to keep outbreaks from flaring up even after people start mingling again, though the researchers stress that states would still need to limit large gatherings.

 

 

[Malcador]

8 hours ago, ShadySands said:

That's literally what happened at my last job

Will probably happen with us, but maybe not as we use - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Body_shopping so that taints entire nations

[MedicineDan]

21 minutes ago, rjshae said:

*stuff*

 

You cite an NPR article from April 25th that was last updated April 28th?  The safe bet for Florida at that time was June... 21st?  I'm not going to reread the article.  I'll just point out that the opinion pieces that Florida was going to be a wasteland of 'Rona deaths didn't pan out in the nearly one month since that article was published.  People really ought to start worrying that, if the news and the 'experts' don't start getting their act together, people will stop trusting professionals in the medical profession.  Seriously, whether it's drugs that don't have sufficient testing done to make definitive statements or conditions on reopening states, we should stop making definitive statements about the 'Rona.  Even the preliminary studies have been largely wrong so far.  I don't mind the advisors being cautious because it's their jobs and reputation on the line and, Heaven knows, you won't lose your job and reputation if you're too cautious.  There is too much 'Rona in some places to count on testing and tracing.  Good luck with that.  There is simply not enough virus to need tracing in others.  Discarding the notion out of hand, I would suggest that putting all the effort into protecting the *truly* at risk populations, which means the superbly old, is the best options.

EDIT: sorry.  night off and so that means abundance of ETOH.  I'll leave my original comments, which are wrong. Tracing in places with low rates makes a lot more sense.  What I'm getting across is that even in those places concentrating the efforts on the right areas is more effective.  That means testing and tracing smart.  Of course, at this point, we're getting to the point where we can conduct huge numbers of tests.  The irony is that we'll get a lot more confirmed cases and then people will use *that* as an excuse to extend lockdowns that are already starting to fall apart.

Edited May 21, 2020 by MedicineDan

[Malcador]

Wonder how people who do fight off the virus make out, suppose that bears keeping in mind as well if you want to shrug off deaths.

[213374U]

5 hours ago, MedicineDan said:

I'm very likely the most genuinely emo person in this place, but my assessment is that we should not significantly lower the life expectancy for the bulk of society for the sake of little time for a tiny few.  I guess, at the end of things, as emo as I've always been, I'm more of a bean counter.  The numbers don't lie and, unfortunately, I can read the numbers.

It is a known fact that economic recession brings with it increases in poverty, violent crime and suicide. The amount of patients with conditions other than COVID that have had their treatments suspended, reduced, delayed or otherwise affected is non-negligible as well. I remember reading that, for example, the amount of heart attack cases admitted to hospitals had decreased by some 40%. Needless to say, this doesn't mean there has been a 40% reduction in myocardial infarctions.

That being said, any strategy based on analyses that look at QALYs per dollar vs total COVID fatalities is going to be problematic at best especially if the result said analyses return is that saving a group of core voters now condemns a larger number of people to death by various causes at an unspecified point in the future, even leaving ethical considerations aside (!).

edit: also of note, is that Sweden, with its comparatively hands-off approach, is still looking at a 6-7% GDP contraction as a result of all this. Even without lockdowns, the economy is going to take serious damage, and trust takes much longer to build than it does to break.

Edited May 21, 2020 by 213374U
a rational ground or motive

[Hurlshort]

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3084779/coronavirus-hamster-research-proof-effectiveness

Wearing a mask seems like a pretty simple thing to do. 

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, 213374U said:

edit: also of note, is that Sweden, with its comparatively hands-off approach, is still looking at a 6-7% GDP contraction as a result of all this. Even without lockdowns, the economy is going to take serious damage, and trust takes much longer to build than it does to break.

Sweden also will suffer unseen complication, as all other Nordic countries and Baltic countries have decided lift travel restrictions for each other citizens, but travel for people from Sweden is restricted until time that infection levels in Sweden are in same level as they are in other Nordic countries and in Baltic states. So at least for now favorite son of north has become a black sheep.  

[Gromnir]

7 hours ago, MedicineDan said:

Like I said, I'm going to reserve any response vis a vis the drug discussion from earlier. 

*chuckle* 

didn't realize obsidian implemented parliamentary procedure. medicineD may respond or not as the spirit moves him. that said, we will once again echo others and observe how trump promotion o' hydroxychloroquine ain't 'bout drug efficacy anymore than were the kerfuffle over inauguration regarding crowd size were 'bout the number o' people who came out to view trump's inauguration. yet again, it is the double-down strategy shady mentioned which has the trump loyalists falling for 3rd-rate sleight o' hand. 

as for solution worse than the cure schtick, we may turn on fox news to get that bit o' curious punditry from any number o' opinion personalities. is a roiling quagmire o' bs we do not care to enter w/o a hazmat suit. only curious aspect is where folks need be on the bs receptivity scale to embrace this noisome bit o' pseudo-profound nonsense.

however, for those who ain't seen yet, 

U.S. Could Have Saved 36,000 Lives If Social Distancing Started 1 Week Earlier: Study

because testing were an early fail, containment efforts were effective taken off the table as possible solutions. mitigation became focus o' any solution and social distancing were recognized as kinda the only viable response 'cause alternative woulda' been to do nothing and rely on development o' herd immunity, which at the time had an estimated cost in US lives o' 'tween one and two million with vast majority o' those deaths being 'mongst elderly and/or poor. might be worthwhile to consider mistakes of past to inform solutions for future, yes?

surge were the great nightmare during early stages. good news is the curve were, in most places, flattened. therefore, with recognition o' at least momentary flattening, it makes sense to reflect 'pon easing o' social distancing restrictions. 

that said, the concerns regarding easing o' social distancing restrictions has remained constant 'cause the obstacles to reasonable reopen has never actual been addressed.  prerequisite to any informed reopening scheme is dependent 'pon implementation o' basic widespread safety measures to protect returning workers, adequate access to ppe for everybody who needs, as well as a robust scheme for testing and contact tracing supported by necessary manpower and resources. even the white house recognized such prereqs. reopen in spite o' absence o' such prereqs being met is what concerns the science folks. is not a matter o' people rejecting reopen but is rather concerns 'bout state and fed once again mishandling pandemic related efforts.

current solutions adopted by many states appear to ignore history and are dependent on a gambler mentality more than science.  don't meet most/any o' the science informed prereqs? well... uh... the alternative is worse than the whatever? fauci and other genuine experts has observed how every major viral pandemic has had a second wave occur approximate six months after start of the initial wave. doesn't matter what time o' year the first wave began neither. assume a return o' covid-19 by september is the safe money bet. is no surprise china is starting to see resurgence o' covid and we expect their infection numbers will increase throughout may, june and july in spite o' their willingness to take draconian measures to contain the disease. in other words, we got a very short time to get our $%&@ together and would be ill-advised to risk spikes 'tween now and fall. 

is all well and good to consider easing social distancing, but should be informed and guided by the science and the data. more important, just as the US had time from mid january to early march to prepare for covid-19, the US now has time to prepare for the inevitable second wave. a return to normalcy is not and should not be the goal given the certitude o' a viral resurgence. history will not be kind to the US and our initial efforts to confront the pandemic in spite of early warnings. to compound early foolishness with criminal obtuse indifference to certainty o' a second wave would be unforgivable. 

ease current restrictions contemporaneous with state and fed plans and resources to address spikes 'tween now and inevitable second wave? is anybody actual rejecting such? try and convince us with campaign worthy slogan that such prereqs is worse than the cure is less than convincing.... and again, we can get such silliness from tune into fox and drinking the kool aid... or perhaps bleach is your beverage de jour?

repeat cause is important: containment of covid-19 were impossible in the US 'cause we failed to appropriate respond to multiple warnings which began surfacing in january o' 2020. such failures, while tragic and regrettable, at least have value if they serve to educate and prepare us to better handle the inevitable return o' covid-19 this fall. misguided efforts to return to normalcy w/o simultaneous preparing for a second wave is both dangerous and stoopid.

HA! Good Fun!

[Volourn]

Our gov't is hilarious. They finally admit that they should have closed the border earlier. Of course, back then, they were playing politics and were too busy accusing Trump of being 'racist' for wanting to close the border. 

 

And, now, after months claiming they weren't needed, they are recommending (not forcing) the wearing of masks... even as they further open the country. Ridiculous. Make up your mind. Is the country ready to open up or is not? 

Then again, same country that releases criminals from prison because 'unsafe' but are also threatening to imprison people.

Then again, the same country that bans camping but  allows busy grocery stores and banks to remain open. LMAO

[BruceVC]

In SA all the gyms are closed but I am really embracing my walks for exercise  which I do 3-4 times  a week and then on the weekend we going for a 12 km 

I do the walks with my experienced hiker friend from Eritrea who stays in my flat complex, she is great and has already cooked me Ethiopian\Eritrean food last week which was delicious. 

We start walking always at 7 am as our local lockdown regulations only permit exercise from 6-9 am but until the gyms open and I am happy with there virus spread decisions  these brisk walks are addressing my previous lack of cardio during the lockdown 

[Gfted1]

12 km = 7.4 miles!!! I too have been taking a stroll every day weather permitting, but Im only averaging 2.2 miles per walk.

[Hurlshort]

I'm running about 25 miles a week and everything hurts. But it is still easier than trying to homeschool my kids.