There is little doubt, that this war doesn't go according to the Kremlin's plans. It was made unwinnable when the Kiev was a target. Should Russians focus all efforts from the start on the belt they still control now, we would probably be already after the conflict.
Now, in economic terms, the war is more destructive to Western economies than it is to the Russian one.
As in clockwork (end of Q3 beginning of Q4), we are about to experience a global crisis and a last hurrah of the USD.
FED is trapped and too late to the game, and has to raise rates. Economies are still weak, EU is in shambles on its own wish with all the policies and sanctions, and Truss is probably the worst choice UK could have made after Boris (todays plan just confirms that)
For those more interested in what's goin on, read this summary. It's simple enough for people who have at least some interest in economy and markets.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crash
For non-ZH readers, free BBG article via yahoo ->
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-risks-breaking-point-201642016.html
Now, in terms of impact on the EU, you will see more and more 'nationalists' coming to power, especially at the time of economic crisis and with more migrants inflows.
Even Sweden turned right, Italy is about to go as well. France avoided that barely, due to bad timing of election and previous connections to Putin.
Russia will send those conscripts to secure land after referendums. They want to hold south belt to Crimea as a status quo and their war loot.
UA topic is about to vanish from main points of media interests. Give it until the end of year tops. In Europe, economic woes will take the front pages. (inflation, crashed currencies, stocks, unafordable energy and heating prices, unafortable food and poor food security outlook for 2023 - see this years poor global harvest data and high cost of production and processing of food in EU). Green policies are now dead, as Europe spends more and more on ship freight of energy resources, which contributes to more emissions and is probably also not enough to create security in the energy.
Oil price caps just means that there will be less oil for the 'West' or EU will be buying resold Russian Oil from China/India same as they are doing now with LNG. It may be even enough to brinng back oil prices above 100, something that Sauds would love to see, as oil now crashed on global recession fears
Anyway too many topics to write about