Ukraine Conflict - Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit

[Darkpriest]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

@Darkpriest About the Gas and the Russia, today was very interesting program on our radio. There was an information that 70% of income for Russian gas is currently coming from EU, and that any Gas from West Siberia can be exported only to EU through Jamal/Yamal pipeline, because there was never build any pipelines from Siberia to anywhere in the World. So if I correctly understood it, if Russia will stop the Gas flow to EU, they will lose much more than EU. just because of infrastructure, which never existed. Also: Chinese rhethoric might say something different, but they are still quietly imposing some sanctions on Russia as well. https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/as-china-quietly-joins-sanctions-against-russia-xi-might-be-too-rational-to-risk-arming-putin-20220316-p5a54j.html

@Zoraptor A little bit of what is happening to Tatars after Crimea annexation. If you are interested in that topic, feel free to run these links through Google Translate
 

https://www.amnesty.sk/krym-od-anexie-uz-uplynul-rok-ti-co-ju-kritizovali-su-prenasledovani-umlciavani-a-celia-utokom/

https://cejsh.icm.edu.pl/cejsh/element/bwmeta1.element.desklight-3185910f-c682-4602-a991-3446c9469fac/c/PolRev2015-1pp31-63.pdf

Both in Slovak Language

Anyhow about the video, which is in breach of ToS, if you want to see an Ukrainian explanation as opposing view on Russian explanation, you can watch this video. Keep in mind, there might be a lot of Ukrainian propaganda involved as well, but I have not seen anyone to post any rebuttal of that video (excluding that anonymous tweet). Make your own conclusion. Video is under spoiler Tag:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

And the another addition to the "How incompetent Russian army commanders can be" is the news about Russians digging trenches in Red Forest and running around there completely unprotected (also keep in mind, this is news from UNIAN, but IIRC some IATA personnel has previously claimed same things.)

 

About the gas part. 

True to an extent. Russia indeed is starting to overflow its storage and will most likely have to stop production for some time from parts of its system, however it does not chanhe that they will still have surpluss domestically and western economies will have serious issues without that gas if switched off today. It also does not change the fact that Russia will hold this resource under their ownership and in worst case scenario it will store value to a lter date until proper investment will be made to connect to eastern/southern side. 

Short term, they will lose revenue in curremcies they cannot use, so not really an impactful loss compared to what they experienced on sanctions already. 

[Gorth]

Continued from previous thread:

Remember, discussing various aspects of the war is fine (keeping the standard forum guidelines in mind). Wishing death on individuals and groups if people or encouraging the same is still not an option, no matter how invested you may feel in the conflict...

 

So far, the threads as a whole has been a positive surprise all things considered. Lets try to keep it at that?

 

 

[Gorth]

Anyone remember Macron pulling a Chamberlain? Peace in our time? After his meetings with Putin before the war...

 

Looks like they found someone to take the fall

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60938538

The head of French military intelligence, Gen Eric Vidaud, is losing his job after failing to predict Russia's war in Ukraine, reports say.

Seven months after he took on the role, one report said he was blamed for "inadequate briefings" and a "lack of mastery of subjects".

 

He also got the blame for Australia blindsiding France by dropping the order for French conventional submarines worth many billions of dollars and switching to US made nuclear submarines instead.

[Malcador]

https://ip-quarterly.com/en/one-mans-war-one-mans-choice

Interview with Fiona Hill about this situation

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Gorth said:

Anyone remember Macron pulling a Chamberlain? Peace in our time? After his meetings with Putin before the war...

 

Looks like they found someone to take the fall

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60938538

The head of French military intelligence, Gen Eric Vidaud, is losing his job after failing to predict Russia's war in Ukraine, reports say.

Seven months after he took on the role, one report said he was blamed for "inadequate briefings" and a "lack of mastery of subjects".

 

He also got the blame for Australia blindsiding France by dropping the order for French conventional submarines worth many billions of dollars and switching to US made nuclear submarines instead.

I can understand Macrons frustration, the French intelligence reports were inaccurate. To quote

However, in early March Gen Burkhard acknowledged that French intelligence had not been up to the level of US or UK briefings, which were publicised to pile pressure on Russia's Vladimir Putin. "The Americans said that the Russians were going to attack, they were right," he told Le Monde newspaper.

But I think its a little unfair because many countries got it wrong and believed Putin would never invade. So I think the real reason he is being fired is 

France's misreading of President Putin was all the more embarrassing because President Emmanuel Macron had spoken to him regularly in the days leading up to the invasion on 24 February.

So I think Macron is understandably annoyed but I would still say his attempts to negotiate were worth it...you never know what could have happened

But the truth is clear now, Putin is a liar and a warmonger and now we have the unity and resolve amongst Western countries and their allies to stop Putins unnecessary endeavors to create the old Soviet borders

But in summary, its unfair he was fired because you are almost punishing someone for " believing negotiation may succeed " ?

@Mamoulian War Where have you been the last couple of days, you have been quiet?

 

Edited April 1, 2022 by BruceVC

[Gorth]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://ip-quarterly.com/en/one-mans-war-one-mans-choice

Interview with Fiona Hill about this situation

A good read. A bit long, but very detailed and very interesting

[BruceVC]

59 minutes ago, Gorth said:

A good read. A bit long, but very detailed and very interesting

That is a good read, it highlights what a deranged and irrational warmonger Putin is ...not that we didnt know this but its well articulated 

And I like the quote below 

I am sure Putin is informed about the state of the economy, for example. This is now a total disaster, but Putin is convinced that it is possible to adapt. There was this picture of a meeting with Elivra Nabiullina, the head of the Russian Central Bank, and other economic advisors, they have got their heads in their hands, and it is obvious that he is telling them: Well, it is what it is, and you guys have to figure it out and adapt.

 

 

 

[xzar_monty]

Reading A People's Tragedy by Orlando Figes, one is struck by this: "But the biggest problem for the democratic project in 1991, as it had been in 1917, was the simple historical fact that the Russians had no real experience of it. Neither the Tsarist nor Soviet governments had given them a taste or even an understanding of parliamentary sovereignty, government accountability or legally protected liberties."

The book is highly recommended. The story is likely to be heartbreaking.

[BruceVC]

29 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Reading A People's Tragedy by Orlando Figes, one is struck by this: "But the biggest problem for the democratic project in 1991, as it had been in 1917, was the simple historical fact that the Russians had no real experience of it. Neither the Tsarist nor Soviet governments had given them a taste or even an understanding of parliamentary sovereignty, government accountability or legally protected liberties."

The book is highly recommended. The story is likely to be heartbreaking.

Yes thats very true, the Russian people have never experienced the benefits of Democracy or seen how Capitalism can drive your economy in a positive way with regulations and labor laws

They went from the absolute corrupt monarchy  of Tzar Nicholas to the failed system of Communism to the mismanagement and excess of Yeltsin and the Oligarchs 

They have never experienced how both Democracy and Capitalism can and do work 

[pmp10]

7 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://ip-quarterly.com/en/one-mans-war-one-mans-choice

Interview with Fiona Hill about this situation

Just another case that this is somehow Putin's war so a choice of a one man.
The reality is his approval rating jumped and is now at 80%.

The war might have been Putin's call, but like it or not, it is now Russia's war and majority embraces it. 
Hoping for a quick coup to return old normal is a fantasy. 
Even if you can beat Russia's armies you will not change the minds of its people.

Edited April 1, 2022 by pmp10

[Lexx]

Oil depot in russia got attacked:

 

[BruceVC]

10 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Oil depot in russia got attacked:

 

I  thought Ukraine didnt have a functional air force?

[Lexx]

I mean, a couple helicopters isn't necessarily a "functional air force"

[bugarup]

Could've been russian own copters that got lost and confused.  

[Malcador]

Surprised people thinking it is false flag on places like Reddit when they lap up every tale of Ukrainian prowess.

Not implausible for two gunships to do that, though.

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

i thought Ukraine didnt have a functional air force?

They still do, still have pilots flying, read some puff piece about them earlier in the week.

[Lexx]

But russia said they have air superiority now or something like that. : >

[kanisatha]

Here's my prediction for what comes in the next few weeks: referenda expressing the "popular" "democratic" will of the people will be conducted in Luhansk and Donetsk declaring their wish to join Russia by over 90% margins. Then Russia will pass laws to absorb these areas into Russia, and then declare their "special military operation" is actually about defending their territory and people from a vicious and unprovoked invasion by evil nazi Ukrainian aggressors.

And, after this, similar referenda are coming in Russian-occupied parts of Georgia and Moldova too. And in those cases, a pretext may also be created for full invasions, Ukraine-style, to absorb the whole states into Russia, calculating that global costs (sanctions and condemnations) cannot get any worse so may as well reap as much benefit as possible.

[Malcador]

5 minutes ago, Lexx said:

But russia said they have air superiority now or something like that. : >

Even if true that just means they'd have the upper hand, not that Ukraine can't send anything up in the air.

[rjshae]

6 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Just another case that this is somehow Putin's war so a choice of a one man.
The reality is his approval rating jumped and is now at 80%.

The war might have been Putin's call, but like it or not, it is now Russia's war and majority embraces it. 
Hoping for a quick coup to return old normal is a fantasy. 
Even if you can beat Russia's armies you will not change the minds of its people.

It's fairly typical for a nation's populace to support a war effort at the start, regardless of the moral validity. It doesn't always end up that way.

[Katphood]

Holy hell...

[Azdeus]

Had he kept his cool for one or two seconds it'd have actually exploded, shame

[Mamoulian War]

@Malcador Lavrov or Peskov or MoD have released official statement two or three weeks ago, that Ukrainian air force has been destroyed IIRC.

@BruceVC Me and my wife have taken one Ukrainian refugee to our house, so I am spending less time with my PC now. But I am still trying to read a little bit here and there.

An interesting reportage about the "disappearance" of one of the most elite brigades in Russia during Hostomel fights, and how the people are slowly getting the correct information through the extreme news embargo in Russia through Telegram and are confronted with the notion, that state media cannot lie.

 

[Malcador]

22 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

@Malcador Lavrov or Peskov or MoD have released official statement two or three weeks ago, that Ukrainian air force has been destroyed IIRC.

Yep, and they were lying.

[Zoraptor]

11 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

"But the biggest problem for the democratic project in 1991, as it had been in 1917, was the simple historical fact that the Russians had no real experience of it. Neither the Tsarist nor Soviet governments had given them a taste or even an understanding of parliamentary sovereignty, government accountability or legally protected liberties."

 

lol.

"Democracy is for civilised people, and they just aren't civilised"

The reality was that Yeltsin followed the economic suggestions of the west pretty much wholesale and it resulted in two sovereign bankruptcies, the largest known drop in life expectancy in any country outside of wartime and an implosion of the standard of living- while the privatisation model resulted in the oligarchs we know and love today.

Also, of course, what happened in their first actual Presidential election? Massive pro Yeltsin interference from the US, as well as massive (uncondemned) pro Yeltsin ballot stuffing.

That is what changed things- the enthusiasm for democracy and the west ran into a rabid pro west pro democracy candidate who was bent as a paperclip, and ran the country into the ground using a western plan and while being feted in the west.

4 hours ago, Lexx said:

But russia said they have air superiority now or something like that. : >

Air superiority isn't air supremacy, I can quote the definitions again if needed. The estimate  is that Ukraine is managing 'up to' 10 sorties per day, and flown at treetop level as that's under the height ceiling for most of the Russian air defences. Despite that they've lost 2 planes in the last few days (one of which was videoed and can be found, inevitably, 'as Russian Su35 shot down')

Everything else is small drones.

[213374U]

14 hours ago, Gorth said:

A good read. A bit long, but very detailed and very interesting

Eh. Not a bad piece especially considering what gets printed these days but I lol'd at "history shows that blitzkrieg never works". I know that you know, but blitzkrieg was an incredibly successful model in 1939 Poland and 1940 France. It "failed" in 1941 in large part because its main requisite -speed- couldn't be realized due to the infamous Russian mud season and, well, the sheer number of Soviet armies to destroy. It still got Hitler within spitting distance of Moscow in a bit over 5 months and caused millions of casualties to the Soviets.

If anything, what the Russians have attempted is not "blitzkrieg" but rather an application of the old Soviet deep battle doctrine. Deep battle anticipates non-trivial losses, which is why looking at these figures from a Western perspective can be misleading. In any case, the offensive seems to have lost all momentum pretty early on so it's not exactly according to doctrine, heh.

Anyway, sorry for the pedantic tangent, but I'd expect a better grasp of terms from someone using them in a professional capacity. I also wasn't impressed by the amount of conjecture and assumptions about Putin's decision-making process and internal motivations. Of course, without face-to-face interviews or access to his shrink's files, there's not much to go on.

Edited April 1, 2022 by 213374U