Politics... US election edition

[Hurlshort]

2 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

That makes me wonder if IL has/had such a candidate. If so I might have overcome my inertia for the "down vote" candidate that was advocating for UHC. Papa getting old and will need a UHC golden parachute to ease me into my golden year. That and UBI.

You probably already have UBI when you get old. That is what Social Security is. 

Medicare isn't UHC though. It is pretty limited.

[Gfted1]

Look at Mr. Optimistic over there thinking that SS wont have collapsed upon itself by then!  But seriously I want the UBI now, to be combined with my normal income, not when Im ~13 years away from dying (statistically 78.5 yo) and retired. That way I can get my relax on while I can still enjoy it.

[Hurlshort]

I never understand the worries about SS or other retirement plans collapsing. We pay money into them. It isn't a free money program. It might need to be adjusted or altered, but it isn't going to collapse as long as there are millions of people still paying into it with every paycheck.

[Darkpriest]

44 minutes ago, Hurlshot said:

I never understand the worries about SS or other retirement plans collapsing. We pay money into them. It isn't a free money program. It might need to be adjusted or altered, but it isn't going to collapse as long as there are millions of people still paying into it with every paycheck.

Not entirely true. You still need to outperform real inflation well enough, and you pension plan might crash and lose net worth depending on where the money is held. 

There also things like medical bills during retirement, life expectancy etc vs amount available at retirement age etc. 

[Guest]

45 minutes ago, Hurlshot said:

I never understand the worries about SS or other retirement plans collapsing. We pay money into them. It isn't a free money program. It might need to be adjusted or altered, but it isn't going to collapse as long as there are millions of people still paying into it with every paycheck.

My understanding of the argument is:

1. Historically, the payments made into SS have exceeded minimums
2. Various congresses have decide to "borrow" against those overages
3. Now that baby boomers are hitting retirement age, money flowing out of SS is greater than money flowing into SS
4. Decades of borrowing against SS surpluses means that there are insufficient reserves to cover Boomers
5. Result is that by the time Gen-Xers want to retire, no more money in the SS to cover them

Any or all of this could be wrong or no longer the case, but it is more or less the basis for the concern.

[Guard Dog]

President Donald Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign was powered by a cell phone app that allowed staff to monitor the movements of his millions of supporters, and offered intimate access to their social networks.

Turns out Big Brother really was watching!

This forum (and a few others) is as close as I get to social media. My Facebook account exists solely so I can play chess online for free. I don't do twitter, instagram, or the other stuff. I have few apps on my iPhone and my Kindle is a paperwhite does books only. I keep telling myself one day I'll turn all this s--t off for good. 

Except the Kindle. And SiriusXM. Never giving that up.

 

[Guard Dog]

2 hours ago, Achilles said:

 

 You can't beat the drum of "government bad" at every opportunity and then expect the rest of us to assume that there's nuance in your position.

 

That is a very fair criticism. Going foreword I'll elucidate a bit more in our exchanges. 

[Zoraptor]

Trump is pulling some troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan, 2000 or about half the total from Afghanistan and 500 from Iraq (don't know what that is proportionately), to update a thread from the previous page.

3 hours ago, Pidesco said:

The blame for the current and worsening state of affairs can be laid squarely on the free market and the federal government's consistent laissez faire attitude.

Yep, the ultimate problem is that healthcare is not really miscible with the free market except for things which are elective like cosmetic surgery. If you're having a heart attack you're not able to make a rational balanced decision on the costs and benefits of various providers as you might if you were buying lunch or a car or a house. You just want it to be treated as quickly as possible, so you don't die.

1 hour ago, Hurlshot said:

I never understand the worries about SS or other retirement plans collapsing. We pay money into them. It isn't a free money program. It might need to be adjusted or altered, but it isn't going to collapse as long as there are millions of people still paying into it with every paycheck.

Outside the US such funds make very attractive targets for borrowing against or even directly raiding during economic crises when a government needs money.

[rjshae]

3 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Trump is pulling some troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan, 2000 or about half the total from Afghanistan and 500 from Iraq (don't know what that is proportionately), to update a thread from the previous page.

I remember Obama getting criticized for his force drawdown in Iraq. What goes around comes around.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, rjshae said:

I remember Obama getting criticized for his force drawdown in Iraq. What goes around comes around.

Everything Obama did was a sign of weakness

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, rjshae said:

I remember Obama getting criticized for his force drawdown in Iraq. What goes around comes around.

Near 20 years is surely enough for doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results. Near 17 years is surely enough too. Whether it's Obama or Trump or Biden, at some point you have to stop kicking the can down the road. Trump's a gigantic hypocrite in some things but he's right that there has to be an end point, and sometimes you just have to declare victory and cut your losses. If the troops were staying chances are there would be zero progress in the next 4 years, so you have to keep the troops there even longer, etc.

[ComradeYellow]

What's sad is that I still run into Iraq War vets who like to point out all the infrastructure we put in there after the invasion like it was some kind of positive thing.  I mean it's like the we've learned nothing from Soviet misadventures and Russian soldiers bragging about how their force-fed economic structures were the best in the world and they were doing these countries a service.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet–Afghan_War

[Skarpen]

9 hours ago, Hurlshot said:

I never understand the worries about SS or other retirement plans collapsing. We pay money into them. It isn't a free money program. It might need to be adjusted or altered, but it isn't going to collapse as long as there are millions of people still paying into it with every paycheck.

Yeah. That's why Ponzio schemes are working and never collapse

[Malcador]

10 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

Look at Mr. Optimistic over there thinking that SS wont have collapsed upon itself by then!  But seriously I want the UBI now, to be combined with my normal income, not when Im ~13 years away from dying (statistically 78.5 yo) and retired. That way I can get my relax on while I can still enjoy it.

Time to take up motorcycle riding....

[Guard Dog]

OK, for those of you who think we "wasted our vote" on Jo Jorgensen (particularly a certain half-orc bhaalspawn lawyer from west of the Rockies) the numbers are in:

• In Georgia Jorgensen won 62059 votes. Trump lost by 14163
• In Pennsylvania Jorgensen received 78431. Trump lost by 60233.
• In Arizona the LP ticket got 50636. Trump lost by 12813
• In Wisconsin they had 38393, Trump lost by 20557 

Now, as I have stated many, many times Libertarians are not Republicans. But they are anti-Democrats on most issues. The Democrats are the party of big tax, big regulation, gun control, eminent domain, suppression of speech, suppression of property rights, collectivism, etc. Libertarians find some common ground with the Dems in social issues but in any sort of "lesser evil" calculation we tend well towards Republicans.

If just 46.9% of these 229000+ libertarian voters took the advice, so often given unbidden, about not "wasting" our votes Donald Trump would be starting a second term in 63 days rather than catching a one way ticket home. 

And to the Republicans who are bitching incessantly about us being "spoilers", if you want Libertarian votes try being more libertarian. You used to be. I'd give the same advice to Democrats but that would be a waste of time.  

Edited November 18, 2020 by Guard Dog
Typo

[Chairchucker]

1 minute ago, Guard Dog said:

If just 36.9% of these 229000+ libertarian voters took the advice, so often given unbidden, about not "wasting" our votes Donald Trump would be starting a second term in 63 days rather than catching a one way ticket home. 

Depends. If they'd voted Democrat, we'd still have no Trump. If they'd drawn a **** in the ballot instead of casting a legitimate vote, we'd still have no Trump. If they'd stayed home instead, we'd still have no Trump.

Of course, IMO this is more of an indictment of the USA's voting system.

[InsaneCommander]

I'm looking forward to future encounters like this one, but with Trump and Biden.

[Hurlshort]

1 hour ago, Chairchucker said:

Depends. If they'd voted Democrat, we'd still have no Trump. If they'd drawn a **** in the ballot instead of casting a legitimate vote, we'd still have no Trump. If they'd stayed home instead, we'd still have no Trump.

Of course, IMO this is more of an indictment of the USA's voting system.

Why would it be an indictment? You basically said if people didn't vote for a candidate, that candidate would not have won. That sounds like the system working perfectly.

The whole spoiler argument is silly fun, because it only becomes a reality when you have an uninspired candidate. Did Ralph Nader spoil Al Gore's run? Did Ross Perot spoil George Bush's run? Probably, but you can only blame the candidates for that. 

[Gromnir]

29 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

OK, for those of you who think we "wasted our vote" on Jo Jorgensen (particularly a certain half-orc bhaalspawn lawyer from west of the Rockies) the numbers are in:

 

one reason biden won this year is 'cause o' how he turned the independent vote... which is the catchall to which libertarians is relegated. something like a +12 margin among independents for biden. more independents, including libertarians, voted biden than jorgenson.

gd sees libertarians when he looks in the mirror. fail. 'course Gromnir is a fiscal conservative who identifies libertarian on fundamental rights issues. near 1/3 o' arizona voters is independents (literal 33%) with a significant portion having voted for biden in a state where independents were much approving o' john mccain. az has many libertarians. +25 biden among independents in az. mcsally and trump were killed by independents, including libertarians, and the lion's share o' those independents voted for biden... not jorgenson.

(aside: democrats need to learn that latinos is not a monolithic voting bloc. national average for latinos remained at +33 for democrats, but in az, tx, fl and elsewhere in the south and southwest, latinos, particular in battleground counties, favored republicans. some o' this peculiarity were due to covid. democrats relied on digital media this year and that is a fail with much o' the latino population, but covid don't account complete for the shift o' many latinos to a harder red identification... and the progressives better wake up to this fact and others or 2022 is gonna be ugly.)

and keep in mind how last presidential cycle gd were bragging 'bout how many total votes the libertarian candidate received national. just the start o' a new renaissance for libertarians if we were to believe gd. *snort* not only were johnson totals functional insignificant and far short o' what ross perot managed, but jorgenson and spike cohen didn't fare near as well as johnson in spite o' fact it were a more contentious election with far more voters showing up at the polls. 2020 were seeing a % decrease for libertarian candidate in 2020... so if we take gd's 2016 reasoning and extrapolate...

inconvenient facts is not gd's friend.

spike cohen is the guy on the left in the picture. 

Libertarians Decide to Become a Joke in 2020

"And so, when running for the veep nomination, Cohen trumped Supreme’s free-pony promise (politicians promise people everything, you see) with an extra offer of free cheesy bread and Waffle Houses on every corner. He also added to Supreme’s long-standing pledge to fund time-travel research and then go back to kill Baby Adolf Hitler with a pledge to kill Baby Woodrow Wilson, too."

cohen is another inconvenient fact for gd.

independents, including libertarians, is most often playing the role o' spoiler IF they have any impact at all. democrat or republican or more democrat or republican is a a pleasant fantasy for gd which doesn't match reality. is a vote against the incumbent.

gd, as is typical, sees what he wishes to and ignores the inconvenient facts.

oh, and Gromnir is not half-orc. that were a bioware joke 'cause so many assumed on the boards we were doing a half-orc schtick. gaider made the tob Gromnir a half-orc for funsies.

...

for those interested in what happened yesterday in pennsylvania.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/giuliani-rants-about-mickey-mouse-and-voter-fraud-in-hearing-on-trump-suit

At times, Giuliani even seemed unfamiliar with the campaign’s legal filings: in the midst of reading the word “opacity” from the Trump camp’s complaints, he admitted he did not know what it meant.

“It’s a big word, your honor,” Giuliani said.

am gonna admit that given how terrible were the day for giuliani, am surprised the judge gave the plaintiffs an opportunity to amend their complaint, but perhaps rudy's complete bumbling incompetence actual served a purpose as the ex-mayor were not actual arguing relevant +50% o' the time. the judge had difficulty squaring the hearing with the complaint and so offered the amendment option... which will drag this out at least 'til friday. 

oh, and the audio from the hearing were horrible. twice were the feed entire dropped but even when working properly, we were only able to hear 'bout 50%.

is not a name you are likely to recognize, but uzoma nkwonta were fantastic for the dnc yesterday. am not knowing much 'bout him but this is clear an oversight on our part. sure, rudy were an ez target, but mr. nkwonta delivered a beatdown reminiscent o' the first bane v batman fight from dark knight rises.... although unlike bane, mr. nkwonta did not sound like auric goldfinger with a mouth full of marbles.

oh, and we did warn people 'bout michigan, yes? the wayne county kerfuffle yesterday may very well be replicated at the state level 'cause state certification has same 2 democrat +2 republican composition. 

HA! Good Fun!

 

[213374U]

19 hours ago, Hurlshot said:

I never understand the worries about SS or other retirement plans collapsing. We pay money into them. It isn't a free money program. It might need to be adjusted or altered, but it isn't going to collapse as long as there are millions of people still paying into it with every paycheck.

Because it's a system based on nothing but trust. Trust that the future will be at least as good as the present, and that's a notion that is under increasing scrutiny. As long as there are millions of people still paying into it, it won't collapse today, perhaps. But you aren't contributing into a big government savings program that will pay you your own money back and then some. You are paying for today's pensions, and trust that people still can and want to pay for your retirement in a few decades. Yet facts like increasing life expectancy and lower birth rates pose very real concerns. The US pension system is already several trillion in the red. The overall debt situation and the propensity to keep kicking the can down the road due to partisanship and polarization cast doubt on the long-term viability of the system.

[Hurlshort]

8 minutes ago, 213374U said:

Because it's a system based on nothing but trust. Trust that the future will be at least as good as the present, and that's a notion that is under increasing scrutiny. As long as there are millions of people still paying into it, it won't collapse today, perhaps. But you aren't contributing into a big government savings program that will pay you your own money back and then some. You are paying for today's pensions, and trust that people still can and want to pay for your retirement in a few decades. Yet facts like increasing life expectancy and lower birth rates pose very real concerns. The US pension system is already several trillion in the red. The overall debt situation and the propensity to keep kicking the can down the road due to partisanship and polarization cast doubt on the long-term viability of the system.

Well, when you put it THAT way...

The way I see it is that a lot of much more terrible things will have to happen for it to collapse. So if it does, I will probably be more worried about surviving in the wasteland than getting my SS check in the mail.

[Gromnir]

18 minutes ago, InsaneCommander said:

I'm looking forward to future encounters like this one, but with Trump and Biden.

image

gonna go out on a limb and guess you will be waiting a long time. 

https://apnews.com/f10420da35394d30b37d69ec27be6bb6

trump's brand is that he is an outsider. even if the ex presidents, not to be confused with the point break crew, were to meet for an event, am doubtful trump would join... unless the occasion were designed to glorify trump. 

...

perhaps the President's Cup golf tournament... maybe.

HA! Good Fun!

[Pidesco]

12 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

perhaps the President's Cup golf tournament... maybe.

HA! Good Fun!

Not too likely.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/donald-trump-the-serial-golf-cheat-in-the-white-house

[Gromnir]

4 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

Not too likely.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/donald-trump-the-serial-golf-cheat-in-the-white-house

old, white and privileged cheating at golf is, well, par for the course.'course trump has been seen driving 'cross greens with a golf cart, which is sacrilegious.

is not a pro-am, so is not as if trump would be playing in the President's cup.

oh, and gd numbers for election results is from when? example: current vote gap in pennsylvania is 82,092. so, jorgenson votes, even if all went to trump, wouldn't have been enough in pa. 

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Gfted1]

Im still butthurt that Yang didnt get the Democratic nomination. That 1k/month/adult UBI would have changed my life.