The All Things Political Topic - A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen

[ShadySands]

That's not exactly true. In many places work is not voluntary and they can be punished for not working. It's part of what the prisoner strikes were about a few years back.

I was mainly speaking historically though.

Edited June 28, 2022 by ShadySands

[alanschu]

Plus I mean, when the average (with a lower bound of 0, meaning that the average is mostly above the the median) pay is 67 cents/hour which I suppose is technically getting paid... Plus they can have those wages garnished to... pay for room and board??? https://onlinedegrees.kent.edu/sociology/criminal-justice/community/how-much-do-prisoners-make-in-each-state

(Nice making women pay for their own tampons to boot lmaooooo, jfc)

And yes, strikes have happened in protest of "working" for free such as Free Alabama Movement.

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, Sarex said:

That's what I'm wondering too. I don't see the rest of the members pressuring Turkey to do anything.

Since you were wondering...

Though they have been saying the same all the way through the horse trading. Well, not exactly horse trading since the Finns and Swedes have bent over for daddy Erdogan on everything (well ok, they're not going to hand over a politician the Turks want; everything apart from that though). Only part of the cycle needed to complete it is the, heh, purely defensive invasion of another country from a NATO member- for Turkey the small matter of Cyprus, Syria and Iraq as examples. Might include Artsakh and Greece too, if one were being snarky. Ah well, I guess on the positive side I get another example of how the only actual principles the west actually has are the managers of their educational facilities.

Better get cracking on that reconciliation agreement with Assad guys, though in this case it's not likely to help. Erdogan needs something nationalistic to deflect from the 50% inflation and pump those polls even if it means a literal war.

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, HoonDing said:

How many Kurdish heads will be sent to Sultan Erdogan on a silver platter?

Doubt anyone'll care, really. It's not as if they're in a relatively civilized country.

[Gorth]

Turkey is there to remind the world, that NATO is not a collection of Western Democracies

 

[Elerond]

 Nato promised not to support YPG after that Turkey dropped their extradition demands

Finland and Sweden also will sell weapons and other military equipment to Turkey

[Zoraptor]

At least according to the Turks it's the whole AANES, so SDF in general and all the political parties. Of course, that is Turkey labeling everything they don't like as PKK- but it's not like they haven't been doing that for decades at this point. NATO knows exactly what their position is, there is no ignorance involved.

Strangely enough I've yet to see a single media article mentioning Erdogan's threats to invade Syria and the AANES in context of this news. Going to be... interesting to see how the invasion is handled in the press- by memory holing inconveniences, if prior behaviour is any indication. Certainly can't see it being the epic perfidious betrayal and end of US diplomatic credibility for a generation it was in the press when Trump did it. Going to be fun times when the Turks attack Ain al Arab too..

Spoiler

..the city formerly known in the press as Kobane, for anyone wondering

FTR: if it's a choice between Turkey and the Kurds, let alone in this situation where the Turks have increased leverage, it will always be Turkey picked. Doesn't matter that Biden hates Erdogan, same as it doesn't matter he hates MbS. Gotta be expedient. Still, there's going to be a sort of grim amusement watching all those principles the west says they espouse evaporate like ether when the moderate Turkish backed head choppers steal, rape, murder and ethnically cleanse their way across northern Syria with the active support and sponsorship of one of their allies. Though, of course, they've already been doing that for years in areas like Afrin at this point...

Edited June 29, 2022 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, Gorth said:

Turkey is there to remind the world, that NATO is not a collection of Western Democracies

 

Turkey is a very strategic and important country in the region. They played a role in fighting ISIS and defeating the ISIS Caliphate and they were opposed to the Assad which matters in the context of the Syrian war and the various ideological sides 

They also help with the tens of thousands of illegal immigrants who want to immigrate to the EU, remember illegal  immigration is wrong and I know none of us support it 

 

[Chilloutman]

not sure if funny or politics

 

[Guard Dog]

Lauren Boebert Says the Church Is Supposed To Direct the Government

Hey that worked out well in the past right?

 

[Malcador]

Escape from LA was a warning.

[Chilloutman]

@AgielI would like to know your opinion - we in CZ are using 14 Gripens C/D and we are looking for new jets. So I think our options will be new Gripens or F-35. Whats your opinion on Gripen E? Sounds like Saab will give us those we already got in lease for free and upgrade them if we buy more of them. We are currently looking at total 24 jets. To me it sounds like very good deal but I am really not that experienced to tell if Gripen E is decent jet. (even tho I know its not as good as F-35 but I think cost difference is just too good)

[Hurlshort]

I am not an expert on jets, but I did crash my parents Saab 900s into a tree as a teenager.

[xzar_monty]

18 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Well, not exactly horse trading since the Finns and Swedes have bent over for daddy Erdogan on everything (well ok, they're not going to hand over a politician the Turks want; everything apart from that though).

It would be great if you cared to specify just what this "everything apart from that" is. I am not sure at all whether I am with you on this, but as you appear to be very knowledgeable on the matter, I'd appreciate the details.

I don't know what the consensus is in Russia, but some commentators / politicians / whatnot are mightily angry at Turkey.

Edited June 29, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Gfted1]

F-ing religion. Smh.

[alanschu]

Huh I didn't realize that Gorsuch's mom was the EPA administrator during Reagan's days (and was asked to resign). Just an interesting connection since West Virginia v EPA is coming up soon and people are curious what impacts that'll have on the administrative state.

[Sarex]

23 hours ago, HoonDing said:

How many Kurdish heads will be sent to Sultan Erdogan on a silver platter?

33 it seems like.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

Guess it's time for French cheese again.

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

It would be great if you cared to specify just what this "everything apart from that" is. I am not sure at all whether I am with you on this, but as you appear to be very knowledgeable on the matter, I'd appreciate the details.

I don't know what the consensus is in Russia, but some commentators / politicians / whatnot are mightily angry at Turkey.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a Russian media commentator who didn't appear angry.

Demands made and granted (from a Turkish source, so mileage may vary, though the official NATO release does show it's accurate as to what has been granted at least, and they match up with the sort of demands Turkey made publicly, eg)

1) Sweden and Finland lift arms embargo.

2) They will support Turkey against the PKK* and FETO (-->'Gulenists').

2a) No support for YPG/ PYD*

3) Both will amend their laws on terrorism.

4) Both will share intelligence with Turkey.

5) They will extradite terror suspects.

The one that didn't get granted was extradition of a particular politician (Kakabaveh, iirc, and there's a fairly obvious reason for refusing that given she holds the balance of power in the Swedish Parliament. For a few months). And while that demand was made by a government official it was never clear how serious it was.

Asterisk marks the biggest point of contention/ interpretation. Turkey has a... rather broad interpretation of what constitutes 'PKK'; any Kurd who opposes Turkey, basically, much as the internal opposition are all Gulenists. So while YPG/ PYD are explicitly mentioned as just not getting support Turkey also explicitly considers both to be PKK. Has to be said, everyone also knows what Turkey's position is, attempts to differentiate those groups reek of arse covering for when they inevitably get attacked.

Further to that the tacit point (6) is NATO approving another operation into northern Syria from Turkey, which Erdogan hasn't exactly been shy about saying he wants to do over the last couple of months.

[Agiel]

15 hours ago, Chilloutman said:

@AgielI would like to know your opinion - we in CZ are using 14 Gripens C/D and we are looking for new jets. So I think our options will be new Gripens or F-35. Whats your opinion on Gripen E? Sounds like Saab will give us those we already got in lease for free and upgrade them if we buy more of them. We are currently looking at total 24 jets. To me it sounds like very good deal but I am really not that experienced to tell if Gripen E is decent jet. (even tho I know its not as good as F-35 but I think cost difference is just too good)

The Gripen is certainly a very capable jet, and especially so given the price-point (its limited range is offset if it is used in its intended role of home air defence and close air support at the line-of-contact). Such that a _notional_ hostile power with something approximate to the Su-35 will not willingly tangle with them with anything short of an immediate 3:1 advantage (and given recent months, that number will probably be closer to 5:1). However a few events over the past few years have somewhat undermined the case for the Gripen:

1. The cost of the F-35 has gone down dramatically as a result of the long-established law of economies of scale. As production has ramped up ways of improving efficiency and reducing scrap are discovered in manufacturing and suppliers gain confidence in maintaining long-term partnerships with primes and provide bulk discounts for their products. When the Liberal Party of Canada basically campaigned on their preference for the Superhornet in replacing its fleet of CF-188s Justin Trudeau had hoped that the DND would come to the same conclusion that a type that was not dissimilar (debatable) would ease conversion for its pilots and ground crews. The result: The test pilots and the DND came back and concluded that the F-35 indeed was the best aircraft for the money for the RCAF's purposes. With respect to Saab and other producers of 4th-gen fighters the difference in terms of user interface going from one generation of fighter to another may as well be like going from steam-gauges to a modern tablet.

2. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally changed the western mentality of what counts for "minimum deterrence". Even before the influx of equipment like Javelins, NLAWs, and Bayraktar TB2 UAVs Ukraine was still regarded as a reasonably well-armed country and it was assumed (by myself included for a good long while) that like a porcupine what could be gained from a claws and fangs-out fight with it was simply not worth the blood and treasure. Well, we've all seen how that turned out:

Edited June 30, 2022 by Agiel

[Gorth]

12 hours ago, Guard Dog said:

Lauren Boebert Says the Church Is Supposed To Direct the Government

Hey that worked out well in the past right?

 

It's very popular in Iran. Everybody loves the Theocracy according to the government.

[HoonDing]

#TaxTheChurch

[Gfted1]

^Thats actually a great idea.

[Elerond]

19 hours ago, Sarex said:

33 it seems like.

Now it is 73 

Although Turkey has not yet send single extradition request, but they already announced that they will not ratify memberships until those 73 people which they have requested have been extradited and Finland and Sweden have changed their laws about terrorism to contain unspecified things

[Gromnir]

rewatch the kagan video we earlier linked. 1:29. or read the following:

https://scholarship.law.stjohns.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=6793&context=lawreview

is not that Gromnir is prescient. what the Court is doing with its subversion o' textualism is not subtle. there is policy and social concerns the conservative majority wishes to advance and if they need twist or ignore textualism to achieve such goals, then so be it.

brave new world.

HA! Good Fun!