Finally some sales evidence

[house2fly]

Well, remember Obsidian is owned by Microsoft now. If Microsoft wants POE3 then it'll get made, and they're at the kind of size where there may be considerations other than profit that go into that decision

[hilfazer]

Finally some numbers I can easily understand (:

 

Those are sad news. I was sure PoE2 will sell better than 1 and investors will get their dollars back.

OTOH i'm glad i decided against investing in sequel. I wasn't sure if i can trust Fig or Trump.

[Ethics Gradient]

That blogger seems to have gotten a lot of play with his bar napkin sales math.  The actual terms of Fig investments are a lengthy read, and it seems the only thing they got out of it was a few data points on a line graph.  There is little evidence they read:

 

In addition, our Board may decide not to pay a dividend, or to reduce its size, if our Board believes it would be necessary or prudent to retain earnings in order to avoid a material adverse effect on Fig’s financial condition or results of operations (in which case the unpaid dividend amount will accrue for future payment)...

or

Fig will pay a minimum of 85% of the Fig Game Shares – Pillars of Eternity II allotment to the holders of Fig Game Shares – Pillars of Eternity II, in the form of dividends, subject to our dividend policy.

 

So, right off the bat, there are two key questions to ask:

What rate were the dividends paying off at? and Have any dividends been withheld from this payment?

 

I certainly do not doubt that Deadfire could have sold better, but there are a truckload of assumptions necessary to get to a figure in the neighborhood of 110k copies.

Edited December 20, 2018 by Ethics Gradient

[Flouride]

This is hardly news. This was news a month ago. Why the need for a new thread? Attention perhaps?

[SonicMage117]

Lol Yeah sure. No other reason but attention

 

Let's not mention the fact that I might not be on the section of the forums too much so I obviously didn't know about the other threads. But nah, attention is the only answer for threads we don't like to see teehee HEHEEEE

[xzar_monty]

Well, remember Obsidian is owned by Microsoft now. If Microsoft wants POE3 then it'll get made, and they're at the kind of size where there may be considerations other than profit that go into that decision

 

What are the chances of Microsoft embarking on a project such as this for anything other than profit? I'm not sure, but here's my guess: exactly 0%.

[dukeisaac]

So basically, we will not be getting a POE 3...that makes me sad.

I still have hope for POE 3:

 

- the tools and the engine are in place

- the mechanics are established (hopefully)

- there is a market for the game, albeit a small one

 

A shorter, focused game with heavy modding options could be viable IMO. Honestly, I'm really impressed by the junior designers for BoW, SSS and FS.

[SonicMage117]

Mark my words, if we get any form of PoE, it will either be a mobile card game OR an action game designed around consoles. That's not necessarily a bad thing BUT nobody here will appreciate that, I'm sure lol

 

This is just my opinion of course

Edited December 20, 2018 by SonicMage117

[Boeroer]

This is just my opinion of course

Amen

[Gfted1]

Merged.

[Boeroer]

Wow - that confused me somehow.

[Guest Psychovampiric Shield]

 

Well, remember Obsidian is owned by Microsoft now. If Microsoft wants POE3 then it'll get made, and they're at the kind of size where there may be considerations other than profit that go into that decision

 

What are the chances of Microsoft embarking on a project such as this for anything other than profit? I'm not sure, but here's my guess: exactly 0%.

 

I would say fairly high, certainly non zero. Every once in a while, Microsoft embarks on a project ostensibly seeking profit, but really out of spite alone. Remember Windows 8?

[gkathellar]

 

Well, remember Obsidian is owned by Microsoft now. If Microsoft wants POE3 then it'll get made, and they're at the kind of size where there may be considerations other than profit that go into that decision

 

What are the chances of Microsoft embarking on a project such as this for anything other than profit? I'm not sure, but here's my guess: exactly 0%.

 

They sometimes, occasionally, every once in a while, do things with longer-term profit in mind, though. Microsoft is many things, quite a few of them bad, but it's not EA.

[house2fly]

Yeah, what "profit" means can be malleable. What did Netflix get out of funding Bright and Arrested Development? It's not like anyone is buying them

[InsaneCommander]

Would a turn based PoE3 have better chances? What other changes might make it likely? DOS2 was a success, maybe MS would be more interested in something closer to that?

[Manveru123]

Do you really think DOS2 was a success because it was turn-based? ;p

[Uburian]

Would a turn based PoE3 have better chances? What other changes might make it likely? DOS2 was a success, maybe MS would be more interested in something closer to that?

I'm guessing that DoS2's cooperative mode has played a key part on it's commercial success, but personally i don't think that PoE (the core franchise at least) should have such a mode, as it would likely compromise it's nature. DoS2 is also (from my point of view) way more mainstream than PoE2 (specially regarding the setting and the themes it explores), thus way more appealing to the general public (Pillars has a complex acquired taste, which i adore, but it is probably not as appealing as Divinity to someone new to the genre). Pillars gameplay (being a direct successor tot the IE games) is also way less accessible to someone new than the more modern (gameplay wise) DoS2.

 

In sort, DoS2 has sold more than PoE2 because it is way more mainstream, and also because it grew (gameplay wise) beyond the direct legacy of the IE games. 

 

Personally, i don't really like DoS2 that much (i'll probably give it another chance eventually), and it would sadden me deeply to see the PoE franchise abandoned, or what is worse, made mainstream to meet sale goals. 

 

I know what world we live in though, and at least i'm graceful that we got PoE1 and 2. I'm also someone who hates leaving things half done, so i really hope that they give a proper conclusion to the story of Eora.

 

Final disclaimer: This is just my opinion.

Edited December 22, 2018 by Uburian

[InsaneCommander]

Do you really think DOS2 was a success because it was turn-based? ;p

 

No. It was not my intention for one thing to imply the other. I'm just trying to imagine what kind of PoE3 would be greenlit by MS.

[Stardusk78]

Frankly speaking I am a bit terrified about the prospects of not having at least a third POE. For whatever reason POE is one of my top 10 favourite IPs/worlds. It is undeniable that people like Josh Sawyer have a lot of passion and the whole team is really invested in the POE cosmos and it feels like there is still a great deal to explore and discover so it is worrisome that there might never be another one. It would not be on the devs; they love their world and their work but profit models drive everything. I guess I am asking if there is any hope, any whatsoever?

[AndreaColombo]

I too would love a third game, and not Skyrim-style. Action RPGs bore me quickly even when they are exceptionally well-made, and I’d end up missing out on the story and lore. I prefer RTWP but I can live with a well-executed TB system if the game is isometric and party-based. I need to know the deal with Yezhua, after all

[Manveru123]

 

Do you really think DOS2 was a success because it was turn-based? ;p

 

No. It was not my intention for one thing to imply the other. I'm just trying to imagine what kind of PoE3 would be greenlit by MS.

 

I am a bit worried that we will get PoE3 as an aRPG because those sell better on consoles, but then again MS did make Age of Empires so maybe there's hope.

 

Also I doubt Obs would just totally sell their soul to the devil. Like Blizzard did. And BioWare.

[Triple - A Foxy Lad]

if i remember correctly, microsoft were very lenient and co-operative with harebrained schemes regarding the shadowrun licence.

 

Like is easy to see why. ms werent doing anything with the licence themselves, so why not let someone else do the hard work of ressurecting it?

 

Still, sense often not play part in corporate decisions. They could have been **** about it. They couldve been greedy and controlling and so forth, but - as far as i know - they werent.

 

I feel theyve got it in them to take the odd chance, fingers crossed.

[Cartoons Plural]

Are you referring to the evidence where obsidian reused nearly all the same spells and abilities from the first game and then made evryone start from level one and reuse them again or are you talking about other evidence?

jfc shut up, did josh literally steal your bike?

[rheingold]

OS2 did well for other reasons than turn based. Not a fan of turn based personally. If it’s done well it’s great, but so far haven’t seen any evidence of companies being able to deal with the initiative system which is the biggest issue. Older games seemed to manage, like temple of elemental evil, but Vikings exhibition and both recent larian games were dogs breakfasts largely due to a terrible initiative system in spite of all the potential they had.

For POE 3, I reckon it’s a distinct possibility. Deadfire may or may not have done well, but these games tend to be slow and steady. Over time I’d be surprised if it dosnt turn a decent profit.

The biggest issue though in its favor is 5 million dollars is petty cash for Microsoft. And it’s a pretty good risk for them to take... a cheap game with a support base, which if marketed properly could sell. Sure if Obs tried to convince the 60 million was necessary it wouldn’t happen. But a couple of million dollars when Microsoft specially brought the company in the first place.... the odds are good.

[Stardusk78]

OS2 did well for other reasons than turn based. Not a fan of turn based personally. If it’s done well it’s great, but so far haven’t seen any evidence of companies being able to deal with the initiative system which is the biggest issue. Older games seemed to manage, like temple of elemental evil, but Vikings exhibition and both recent larian games were dogs breakfasts largely due to a terrible initiative system in spite of all the potential they had.

For POE 3, I reckon it’s a distinct possibility. Deadfire may or may not have done well, but these games tend to be slow and steady. Over time I’d be surprised if it dosnt turn a decent profit.

The biggest issue though in its favor is 5 million dollars is petty cash for Microsoft. And it’s a pretty good risk for them to take... a cheap game with a support base, which if marketed properly could sell. Sure if Obs tried to convince the 60 million was necessary it wouldn’t happen. But a couple of million dollars when Microsoft specially brought the company in the first place.... the odds are good.

Hell, even 10 million would be petty cash to them and an extra couple of million would allow them to fully flesh out other companions and meet stretch goals that could not be met previously. Still, look at Tyranny, which I thought was very good. I do not think there will be another one so...erhh.