Ukraine Conflict - Drei Kameraden

[Zoraptor]

Why certainly Bruce, just for you a nice, big, png.

[BruceVC]

@bugarup

Bugie I am interested in the complexity of the different languages and ethnic groups in regions like the Baltic states and East Europe

Is the Lithuanian language similar to Estonia and Latvia and is your language similar to any other EU country?

And what country would you say has similar dialect to Lithuanian?

In SA  we have 9  official black languages and some of the black languages are not similar at all so its interesting for me to see how variation of language in the world

 

[bugarup]

I wonder if number of Russian generals dead from war of Ukraine will surpass number of Russian generals dead from peacetime (insert Turian councillor's airquotes here) accidents  (from here) :

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Meh, Bayraktards would claim Russian soldiers stubbing their toes was caused by drones. It's as always plain old artillery, mostly, though almost all those deaths are still unconfirmed.

As for why Wali might have been at Yavoriv, it is a training facility. If he can't speak Ukrainian or at a pinch Russian well or at all he may be of more use training people who he can communicate with. Same reason I'd be very skeptical of those reports of Syrians being recruited as snipers and the like, the more complex the orders they have to receive the more difficult it is to use them and the greater the scope for mistakes. Hence they'll be used in bodies on the ground roles where minimal instruction is needed.

He was immediately put under other Canadian commander, from info which was released few times, foreign fighters are under command of people who speak their language. Probably only the top people in these regiments are talking Ukrainian. There was also reported few days before Yavoriv incident, that one full polish brigade is operating near Kyiv. Also Slovak ****posters are spreading "verified" information, that he died in Mariupol What would be a logic to send a sniper to a city, which was already besieged when he arrived to Ukraine?

[bugarup]

11 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

@bugarup

Bugie I am interested in the complexity of the different languages and ethnic groups in regions like the Baltic states and East Europe

Is the Lithuanian language similar to Estonia and Latvia and is your language similar to any other EU country?

And what country would you say has similar dialect to Lithuanian?

In SA  we have 9  official black languages and some of the black languages are not similar at all so its interesting for me to see how variation of language in the world

 

Lithuanian and Latvian language belong to Baltic language group, there are just us two in that group, Estonian is from Finno-Ugric group, very different. As for similarity, well, it's a bit weird. There are some Latvian words similar to ours, some that look similar but have different meanings, and I can more or less get the meaning when reading Latvian, but not when I hear someone speaking Latvian. 

Really cannot say anything about similar dialects as I am not a linguist and it's difficult to compare one's mother tongue with any foreign languages. I'd personally say Finnish, but that's probably just because I'm partial to their diphthongs. 

[Mamoulian War]

9 hours ago, Malcador said:

Aren't most of the commanders getting droned ?

Three commanders including 1 general near Kharkiv were snipered IIRC the reports.

[Malcador]

 

[Lexx]

Sounds like a crap deal.

[Chilloutman]

So Haag tribunal requested Russia to cease fire and withdrawal - no idea how they want to press it but oh well

[BruceVC]

23 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Sounds like a crap deal.

If Russia pulls out and Ukrainians agree not to join NATO I would go with that ?Ukraine can still join the EU when its suitable but it doesnt need to be part of NATO ?

[rjshae]

35 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

If Russia pulls out and Ukrainians agree not to join NATO I would go with that ?Ukraine can still join the EU when its suitable but it doesnt need to be part of NATO ?

Can they though? I wonder. Joining the EU strongly links their economies together and creates a de facto motivation for mutual defense. The Ukraine will be required to uphold certain government principles, which are likely abhorrent to Putin. He wants to control his neighbors, and that will be lacking with the Ukraine in the EU.

[Malcador]

Never did hear anything about Putin's opinion on Ukraine being part of the EU, hm.  In any case -

 

 

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Malcador

[BruceVC]

37 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Can they though? I wonder. Joining the EU strongly links their economies together and creates a de facto motivation for mutual defense. The Ukraine will be required to uphold certain government principles, which are likely abhorrent to Putin. He wants to control his neighbors, and that will be lacking with the Ukraine in the EU.

Yes I think their is always a risk Putin may object to Ukraine joining the EU but thats something the Russian gaslighting has not focused on, its always been about NATO

And at the moment their are EU countries not part of NATO so its going to be hard for the Russian propaganda machinery to really use that as excuse for further warmongering?

 

[213374U]

2 hours ago, Lexx said:

Sounds like a crap deal.

Is it? It's basically going back to the status quo pre-2014 -- minus Crimea, which there's no way in hell they are getting back anyway. If Russia is offering those terms, there might be something to the reports that they are significantly depleted and would struggle to sustain combat operations long enough to fully de-militarize Ukraine, remove Zelenskyy and forcefully secede the Donbass. However what alternative is there? NATO isn't getting involved and I don't see any possible scenario where Ukraine wins this.

[Elerond]

13 minutes ago, 213374U said:

Is it? It's basically going back to the status quo pre-2014 -- minus Crimea, which there's no way in hell they are getting back anyway. If Russia is offering those terms, there might be something to the reports that they are significantly depleted and would struggle to sustain combat operations long enough to fully de-militarize Ukraine, remove Zelenskyy and forcefully secede the Donbass. However what alternative is there? NATO isn't getting involved and I don't see any possible scenario where Ukraine wins this.

There is also this  "The biggest sticking point remains Russia’s demand that Ukraine recognise its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the independence of two separatist statelets in the eastern Donbas border region."

Which means that Ukraine needs to give up three of it ten biggest cities Mariupol, Luhansk and Donetsk 

 

[Chilloutman]

I still don't see what endgoal for Russia in this is. Until they basically bomb Ukraine to the ground they will not get much of what they want. I can see forgoing NATO being only think Zelensky accepts. 

[ShadySands]

I'm pretty sure it was just a gross miscalculation

[pmp10]

32 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

I still don't see what endgoal for Russia in this is. Until they basically bomb Ukraine to the ground they will not get much of what they want. I can see forgoing NATO being only think Zelensky accepts. 

Political control of Ukraine.
Warsaw-pact style if they can, Chechnya style if they must. 

[BruceVC]

27 minutes ago, ShadySands said:

I'm pretty sure it was just a gross miscalculation

Indeed and its going to go down as the greatest miscalculation of Putins life 

[Zoraptor]

Nah.

Biggest miscalculation was cosying up to NATO in the early 2000s- if he wanted to stop NATO expansion he should have invaded the Baltics when they moved to join instead of waiting until now with Ukraine. Of course if he had done that that would be seen as his biggest mistake by westerners instead, but all the problems with Ukraine and Georgia go away if the line in the sand was drawn earlier.

lol moment, India won't be sanctioned for buying Russian oil. Hot on the heels of Saudi moving to accept Yuan, it also won't be paid via dollars. Guess they've finally worked out that the Oprah Gift approach to sanctions is, well, monumentally stupid.

[Sarex]

4 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

lol moment, India won't be sanctioned for buying Russian oil. Hot on the heels of Saudi moving to accept Yuan, it also won't be paid via dollars. Guess they've finally worked out that the Oprah Gift approach to sanctions is, well, monumentally stupid.

I find it immensely funny that they though India would somehow refuse to buy cheap food and oil when they have half a billion people who still **** in rivers and the sea. Like they are in a position to care about western politics.

[Zoraptor]

I find it hilarious that after decades of backing their regional rival, including threatening direct intervention over Bangladesh, less directly with Kashmir and nukes the US expects anything from India apart from direct quid pro quo, at all*. It's quite clear that the US does not regard India as a 'friend', for as much as that designation means anything in realpolitik, but just as a country that is useful as it also doesn't like China.

It's like you're supposed to forget anything and everything in recent history as soon as it becomes convenient for the US.

I'd also have to say that for all his faults Trump's bromance diplomacy worked a lot better than Biden's pontificating on people like MbS or Modi. Who would have thought powerful people don't respond well to being lectured by people they see as their equals?

*Not as funny as Britain expecting anything, but still.

[Malcador]

Hah, heck of a time for Belarus to carry out military exercises -

 

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

lol moment, India won't be sanctioned for buying Russian oil. Hot on the heels of Saudi moving to accept Yuan, it also won't be paid via dollars. Guess they've finally worked out that the Oprah Gift approach to sanctions is, well, monumentally stupid.

Why would India be sanctioned when Russian oil is not target of sanctions? US just does not buy it anymore.

Saudi Arabia and China have had talks about yuan trade now for 6 years  (talks started in 2016).

Even though Saudis aren't happy with US, main driver behind their talks with China come economic factors

US imports of Saudi oil has decreased to fourth what it was thirty years ago (from 2 million barrels per day to 500k barrels per day).  China buy now about 1.76 million barrels Saudi oil per day (25% of all exported oil from SA). China, Japan, South Korea and India buy 65% of SA's oil, which means that dollar trade causes unnecessary overhead in the trades, but Saudis have so far preferred dollar because they have imported so much stuff from USA, but now most of their imports come from China, which makes yuan more attractive, even though they aren't as good as dollars to trade with other countries and it is more volatile than dollar which could cause economic issues for SA.

Saudis are also aware that majority of European and US car manufactures are looking to stop manufacturing petrol/diesel cars in next 10-15 years, so predictions says that demand for oil is decreasing in US and Europe, so it does not look like that they will found new demand for their oil in Europe and US, so they have already started to look other markets for their oil. 

Saudis also would like China to stop supporting Iran, so they are also using switch to yuans as negotiation tool with China to ensure that Iran will face trade problems even if they are able to come some deal with US and EU.

Now Saudi Arabia would probably like to prevent Russian oil from Indian markets as they currently together with Iraq India's biggest suppliers where Russian share of Indian oil markets is currently ~2%.

[Zoraptor]

Yeah, oil isn't. USD transactions on the other hand are one of the big targets. Hence the net achievement is... making sure that the Indian/ Russian trade doesn't use USD.

Whilst delivering a somewhat hypocritical lecture on how history will view things to a country that views recent history rather differently to the US.