Hadn't seen these posts earlier. Don't know how I missed this discussion.
Russia's war in Ukraine falls squarely within my academic area of specialty. I've been giving news media interviews all morning, then talking with my students about it all afternoon. Will be discussing it on a panel of experts at my university next week.
Everything that has happened has happened exactly as I've been predicting for a couple of months now. I even predicted the invasion would happen this very week, that it would be preceded by a Russian false-flag operation in the Donbas, and that the invasion would be full-on invasion and not some minor operation. I also predicted that the US response would be rather weak, and thus far have been proven right on that too.
I fully expect the Ukrainians will put up a good fight and won't go down easily. Yes their navy and air force will get destroyed quickly, but on the ground they will fight for every inch of their country. Putin's goal is to completely take over the country, impose his puppet government in Kiev, and then have that government sign treaties giving Russia everything it wants. It won't work. The Russians are going to be bogged down in an insurgency everywhere within the country except the Donbas, and amazing right now are being supported by only a handful of other countries with the overwhelming majority being against them.
The real question is exactly how far are Western countires willing to go to stand up to the madman in Moscow? Thus far only Boris Johnson has showed any real strength. Biden's feckless responses are especially puzzling as he has a long record of bombastic talk against Putin, about how he knows how to handle Putin and the like. And right now he has everyone in the political establishment, from conservative Republicans to liberal Democrats, all on the same page of doing everything short of joining the war to cripple the Russian economy. So why isn't he pulling that trigger? Should be the easiest decision ever.
But mark my words. Ukraine is merely a test-run for Russia, China, and other aggressors in the world to guage how far the West will go to try and stop them. If Putin gets away with his naked aggression in Ukraine, in the very near future we will see China invading Taiwan and Russia invading the Baltic states, and very likely simultaneously in coordination.