Ukraine Conflict - Drei Kameraden

[Malcador]

5 hours ago, Katphood said:

I have nothing against Ukraine, folks. Don't know if it helps but my older brother is actually married to an Ukrainian women so I'm weeping. I just can't stand how they are getting played by western powers. 

They could have stayed out of this whole NATO membership thing, just like Austria or Finland and it would have been fine.

I guess it depends on how much they are being wooed to join NATO.  But now, well, I guess they are being used a bit - who made the joke about the US fighting to the last Ukrainian ?

[Sarex]

1 minute ago, Malcador said:

I guess it depends on how much they are being wooed to join NATO.  But now, well, I guess they are being used a bit - who made the joke about the US fighting to the last Ukrainian ?

I don't get why they would have behaved like they did if they didn't get some very hard promises from the west.

One of the big reasons why my country doesn't want to cut ties with Russia/China or give up Kosovo for a promise of help from the west. We learned that lesson the hard way too.

[Chilloutman]

yeah West screwed Serbia hard, thats for sure

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, Malcador said:

I guess it depends on how much they are being wooed to join NATO.  But now, well, I guess they are being used a bit - who made the joke about the US fighting to the last Ukrainian ?

Not sure it takes much convincing if you think of the EU vs Russia and the difference in quality of life and all the benefits countries gain to be part of the EU

How exactly are they being used when citizens can compare the two choices and decide for themselves ?

[Darkpriest]

@BruceVC

Still so sure of USD remaining dominant past the 2030?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/petrodollar-cracks-saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-chinese-oil-sales

[BruceVC]

7 minutes ago, Sarex said:

I don't get why they would have behaved like they did if they didn't get some very hard promises from the west.

One of the big reasons why my country doesn't want to cut ties with Russia/China or give up Kosovo for a promise of help from the west. We learned that lesson the hard way too.

Sarex I wish you would not dwell on the past so much, yes mistakes were made and I think we can all acknowledge that 

But think of the world nowadays, its not like any famous Serbian tennis player would be banned from any Western country because of Corona fearmongering ...oh wait 

[Katphood]

5 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Personally I dont consider you a Russian apologist like Zora and 2133 and I know you mean well

But can I ask you something? Ukraine is a sovereign country and in 2019 they had a election  and Zelensky won the second round by 72% which is considered an overwhelming victory in any Democracy. Zelensky ran on a pro-EU\pro-NATO ticket and the majority of Ukrainians still voted for him because this is the future they want 

Do you not believe  that Ukraine aligning with the West is what the majority of Ukrainians want? How is the West playing Ukraine when the citizens of Ukraine want to join the EU?

And now in Finland the majority of citizens want to join NATO, what would you say if Finland joins NATO, should the people of Finland not be allowed to join  because of Putins warmongering and paranoia 

Well, Putins regime are a bunch of gangsters armed with nukes. I'd never run in front of a crook yelling 'I have a pact with the police and I'll have you arrested!'

Ukraine joining NATO was obviously not the best way of negotiating with someone like Putin and the Oligarchs. Why confront someone if you are not willing to stand up to them?! 

Either way, Putin's regime days are numbered. I just hope that the Ukrainian people will be alive to witness it.

[Darkpriest]

Something for likes of @BruceVC and @Elerond who think that economic status quo cannot change.

Perhaps check credentials of this guy ( Zoltan Pozsar https://g.co/kgs/Q4qcfm) who has exactly the same view as what I've been trying to convey here. 

------

the idea of a new global reserve currency was reintroduced last week by none other than former NY Fed staffed Zoltan Pozsar who wrote in his latest note that "when this crisis (and war) is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker and, on the flipside, the renminbi much stronger, backed by a basket of commodities. From the Bretton Woods era backed by gold bullion, to Bretton Woods II backed by inside money (Treasuries with un-hedgeable confiscation risks), to Bretton Woods III backed by outside money (gold bullion and other commodities)."

-----

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2022-03-01/zoltan-pozsar-on-a-turning-point-for-the-u-s-dollar-podcast

[Malcador]

11 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Not sure it takes much convincing if you think of the EU vs Russia and the difference in quality of life and all the benefits countries gain to be part of the EU

How exactly are they being used when citizens can compare the two choices and decide for themselves ?

That was my point. But to be even let in to NATO you need approval of the existing members, so I suppose it can't just be driven one way in any case.  They're being used right now as in the proxy soldiers to fight Russia.

 

[BruceVC]

22 minutes ago, Malcador said:

That was my point. But to be even let in to NATO you need approval of the existing members, so I suppose it can't just be driven one way in any case.  They're being used right now as in the proxy soldiers to fight Russia.

 

Sure but no one wants a war with Russia and no one wanted Russia to invade Ukraine so that we would see this proxy conflict

Wars cost lives, destroy livelihoods  and harm the global economy and they directly slowdown the global economic recovery after the lockdown

So this was not something West wanted but now Putin started it and now the West, and indirectly, the rest of world is impacted  by it especially countries that arent first world like SA and most of Africa 

[Malcador]

7 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Sure but no one wants a war with Russia and no one wanted Russia to invade Ukraine so that we would see this proxy conflict

Wars cost lives, destroy livelihoods  and harm the global economy and they directly slowdown the global economic recovery after the lockdown

So this was not something West wanted but now Putin started it and now the West, and indirectly, the rest of world is impacted  by it especially countries that arent first world like SA and most of Africa 

I don't think Katphood's point was that the West played Ukraine into the war as planned but more by accident, but that is my interpretation of his point.  But some positives for the West here, damage Russia, NATO is motivated and spending more on defense (stimulus for LM! :P)

[Gorth]

6 minutes ago, Malcador said:

I don't think Katphood's point was that the West played Ukraine into the war as planned but more by accident, but that is my interpretation of his point.  But some positives for the West here, damage Russia, NATO is motivated and spending more on defense (stimulus for LM! :P)

...the distant sound of thunder is the applause from the Saab and Lockheed share holders

 

Curious what China is going to make of the situation. I would be surprised if Xi isn't going to try to profit from it *somehow*. Either by striking at Taiwan when everyone else is pre-occupied with Ukraine or more insidious, sending "military advisors" to support the Russian army. The latter to try out how well Chinese doctrine and equipment fares against western technology. By now, the west is an active participant in the war in all but name and provides some of the hardest hitting gadgets and surveillance technology available to Ukraine. Just to test the water in a for China safe environment to see how it stacks up in case someone decides to interfere with the intended invasion of Taiwan. Maybe he just want some international credit for being great diplomat if brokering something between Russia and Ukraine some day. Could be something completely different.

[kanisatha]

1 hour ago, Katphood said:

Well, Putins regime are a bunch of gangsters armed with nukes. I'd never run in front of a crook yelling 'I have a pact with the police and I'll have you arrested!'

Hehe this is a great line. I need to remember it for use when I'm lecturing to my students on realism v. liberalism.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

Awesome! Thanks for sharing.

I've also seen a lot of reports of a failed offensive with huge losses near Kharkiv. And reports that morgues in Belarus are overflowing with Russian bodies, with bodies now being stacked outside and beginning to rot. Apparently the Russians are bringing in portable crematoriums to try and dispose of the bodies.

I've heard the rumours as well, but this looks to me kind of over the top. But you really do not know. Yesterday also looked very heavy fighting at a lot of places around all of Ukraine. The Kharkiv situation is from what I read very interesting, because Ukraine are doing their best to disrupt Russian operations. There is definitely a big material and human loses on Russian side near Kharkiv, but the exact losses on Ukraine side around that region and Mariupol is unclear as well. Zelenskyi confirmed 1300 fallen Ukrainian soldiers so far. CIA estimates on Russia are about 4500 and other USA agencies up to 6000. Ukraine is telling more than 12000, and Russia still around 500. What gives me hope is that Ukrainian soldiers on the front on some of their in-action videos are telling, that they are lucky that the Russians are complete goofs. So easier for them to survive their mutual clashes.

[Mamoulian War]

The best news from this war so far.

https://t.me/suspilnedonbas/4363

"Rescue operation continues in Mariupol', about 2000 vehicles left before 2pm, 2000 more awaiting to leave towards Manhush -Beryansk-Tokmak-Zaporizhiye."

Hope these Ukrainian civilians will get out of that hellhole safe, and their army will bring up many more losses to Russian armies there...

 

EDIT: Unfortunatelly there are also more worrysome news from Mariupol
 

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

Something for likes of @BruceVC and @Elerond who think that economic status quo cannot change.

Maybe problem is that you don't understand points made

[Elerond]

2 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Not so. Gasoline prices here in the US have gone up by 22% in the past two weeks. But I for one do not buy the claim this is all because of the war and the sanctions, which I see as playing only a small role in the price increases. The cost of gas was already going up sharply before the invasion happened, so the real drivers are certain other factors which our government doesn't want to admit to for domestic politics reasons.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/mar/14/uk-petrol-prices-diesel-experts-tell-mps-russia-ukraine

[HoonDing]

"realism v. liberalism"

[pmp10]

34 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

CIA estimates on Russia are about 4500 and other USA agencies up to 6000. Ukraine is telling more than 12000, and Russia still around 500. 

Just note that these are rarely apples to apples comparisons.
I think the Ukrainian number is general casualties so aside from fatalities it can include prisoners, wounded, deserted, cut-off and lost. 

Which could lead to a problem when the same unit is counted as casualties multiple times. 

[Elerond]

Oil price dropping like stone because Chinese economy is predicted to crash because of Ukraine war  (@Darkpriest style reading of news )

 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/mar/14/uk-petrol-prices-diesel-experts-tell-mps-russia-ukraine

[ComradeYellow]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/15/ukraine-war-latest-news-russia-putin-zelensky-kyiv-peace-talks/

I think a peace could be reached soon.  Losing lives for the benefit of arming Nazi's for the sake of NATO is bound to end in defeat.  Accepting Ukraine as a neutral buffer state isn't a bad deal, as you can do business with both "Worlds" (People still like to divide the world like a cold war conservative unfortunately).

[Chilloutman]

''Losing lives for the benefit of arming Nazi's for the sake of NATO is bound to end in defeat.''

 

can someone translate this to me please?

[Malcador]

I guess he believes the reason for the invasion.  I miss oby. At least he'd be giving us some Russian war porn.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

2 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

can someone translate this to me please?

Oby's replacement.

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

''Losing lives for the benefit of arming Nazi's for the sake of NATO is bound to end in defeat.''

 

can someone translate this to me please?

Its Comrade, its not suppose to make sense or be relevant