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Ukraine Conflict - "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed"


Mamoulian War

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On another side, the hits on the UA infrasteucture have led UA to stop sending electricity surpluss to Europe as they need to stabilize their grid. 

That was based on yesterday's UA announccement, with effective date today. I wonder what more damages are done since today morning. 

It's clear that Russians will be weaponizing the infrastructure hits in UA to put the economy to a halt (with - 30%GDP alread in dmg done to UA) and create civil unrest and disruptions as people will lack basic amenities for the winter time. 

In Russian eyes it seems justified QPQ for the same type of actions aimed at Crimea and its citizens. 

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4 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

In Russian eyes it seems justified QPQ for the same type of actions aimed at Crimea and its citizens. 

It's quite endearingly naive to think retaliation was caused by russian govt caring (lol) about citizens (lololol) and not to placate those "russia stronk" jingoistic pieces of sh†t howling for blood after the bridge strike. 

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10 minutes ago, bugarup said:

It's quite endearingly naive to think retaliation was caused by russian govt caring (lol) about citizens (lololol) and not to placate those "russia stronk" jingoistic pieces of sh†t howling for blood after the bridge strike. 

Well, as far as the whole thing goes, it goes to pre-invasion part and cutting off water and stuff to Crimea. 

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https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/at-unga-india-votes-to-reject-russia-s-demand-for-secret-ballot-on-ukraine/ar-AA12OUTT 

Russia suffered another humiliating defeat at the UN around wanting to have a secret ballot around a vote to recognize the 4 illegally annexed areas in Ukraine. To quote " Russia's demand to have a secret ballot on the resolution was rejected after 107 UN member states, including India, voted in favour of a recorded vote "

The Ruskies want a secret ballot because they think countries will vote to condemn Russia's actions  because they worried about Western blowback. But the real reason is most countries reject Putin's War and the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine because the majority of the world believes in the importance of sovereignty and international borders

Its a lonely world for Putin when only 13 countries support you at the UN  

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Yup, India has already started to slowly shift away from Russia, since they loathe the increasing lovey-dovey between Russia and China.

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Nah, it's a polit posturing and game. 

India still gulp a lot of gas and oil. 

As for Russia-China lovey sovey, US is keen on making it stronger. 

US over the weekend declared an economic war to China, with a ban on a lot of new tech. This may backfire and may lead to a prompt take over of Taiwan and the semiconductor business/infrastructure. 

If you will look at the rhetoric coming out of China after the weekend, it's bad... 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/-no-possibility-of-reconciliation-as-us-chip-rules-slam-china

Edited by Darkpriest
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24 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

While it's not big, I think it's good that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia have refused to participate in joint military excercises with Russia planned in mid-October.

Even Armenia? That is unexpected... I've read/noticed only about KGZ and KZK refusing it.

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25 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Nah, it's a polit posturing and game. 

India still gulp a lot of gas and oil. 

As for Russia-China lovey sovey, US is keen on making it stronger. 

US over the weekend declared an economic war to China, with a ban on a lot of new tech. This may backfire and may lead to a prompt take over of Taiwan and the semiconductor business/infrastructure. 

If you will look at the rhetoric coming out of China after the weekend, it's bad... 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/-no-possibility-of-reconciliation-as-us-chip-rules-slam-china

Yes but you cant expect countries that are not part of the direct Western alliance to not buy Russian energy. India is on the side of its own economic trajectory so I cant see why they would not buy cheap Russian energy?

But  they dont support Russia and its invasion or annexation of parts of Ukraine  and we know this because of how they vote in the UN

The votes at the UN are not a game and send a clear symbolic message but its a different decision when it comes to energy. Each government has to ensure energy for its citizens and each country will make its own decisions based on their own resources and what is available 

 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

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"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Nah, it's a polit posturing and game. 

India still gulp a lot of gas and oil. 

As for Russia-China lovey sovey, US is keen on making it stronger. 

US over the weekend declared an economic war to China, with a ban on a lot of new tech. This may backfire and may lead to a prompt take over of Taiwan and the semiconductor business/infrastructure. 

If you will look at the rhetoric coming out of China after the weekend, it's bad... 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/-no-possibility-of-reconciliation-as-us-chip-rules-slam-china

Buying cheap oil and gas from Russia is the only thing, which still holds India kind of neutral to Russia, but Modi's rhetoric has already signs of small shifts away. Especially, after they have seen how all the hardware, they've purchased from Russia is "under-performing" in Ukraine. USA and other western countries has already started to reach for this new opportunity, and the closer the China will be with Russia, the more reasons will India have to not do business with Russia. The other issue is the trivialization of use of nuclear strike by Putin. Because this is already starting to affect tensions between India and Pakistan... Edit: And the last but not least issue, is the current influence vacuum in Central Asia, where India wants it's cake too, but is very concerned with rising Chinese influence. Especially in Kazakhstan...
IMHO China and US will sooner or later come to some sensible solution. The rhetoric coming out of the China is pretty much in line with their rhetoric since Xi overtook the party. You have to keep in consideration, that China is going into new "leadership season" now, so a lot of powerful rhetoric will go out of China in very close future. Which should stabilize as soon, as this shifting period ends... Oh and if any Chinese leader would decide, that they will need some landgrab to empower his position, the most logical choice with the least resistance would be invasion of ex-Manchuria, not Taiwan 🤷‍♂️

Edited by Mamoulian War
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4 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Buying cheap oil and gas from Russia is the only thing, which still holds India kind of neutral to Russia, but Modi's rhetoric has already signs of small shifts away. Especially, after they have seen how all the hardware, they've purchased from Russia is "under-performing" in Ukraine. USA and other western countries has already started to reach for this new opportunity, and the closer the China will be with Russia, the more reasons will India have to not do business with Russia. The other issue is the trivialization of use of nuclear strike by Putin. Because this is already starting to affect tensions between India and Pakistan... Edit: And the last but not least issue, is the current influence vacuum in Central Asia, where India wants it's cake too, but is very concerned with rising Chinese influence. Especially in Kazakhstan...
IMHO China and US will sooner or later come to some sensible solution. The rhetoric coming out of the China is pretty much in line with their rhetoric since Xi overtook the party. You have to keep in consideration, that China is going into new "leadership season" now, so a lot of powerful rhetoric will go out of China in very close future. Which should stabilize as soon, as this shifting period ends... Oh and if any Chinese leader would decide, that they will need some landgrab to empower his position, the most logical choice with the least resistance would be invasion of ex-Manchuria, not Taiwan 🤷‍♂️

A tinfoil hat theory, which I've crafted as one of odd but not impossible scenarios... 

 

1) China keeps economy in a shut down mode due to the 'covid', even though nowhere else this strick measuers are in place, not even close. 

2) China has strict population movement and communication restrictions

3) China has been ramping up military activity

4) Xi is waiting for 'lifetime' election

5) US has been ignoring quite openly all the red lines that China put on the Taiwan issue

6) China observes impact on the Western economies of current RU-UA conflict

 

Theory is, that with all the shutdown of economh and population controls, once Xi gets re-elected and the full scope of the economic damage comes to play into view in the West (especially EU), they will move with Taiwan formal annexation back to the mainland. 

Not sure how the weather season is there, but I would assume they would pick a moment where ocean/sea conditions are regularly bad. 

 

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Seems to me, they are so desperate on the battlefield, that they do not know anything better to do. Still more missiles destroyed, than hit the target. All that they have achieved so far, with some of the infrastructure and a lot of civilian objects destroyed, are new sanctions, and even the “weaker” EU leaders stopped to suggest to negotiate with Russia. Which means more deliveries to UA on all fronts… Russia have shot 700+ million in rockets alone to Ukraine yesterday. Just an example of Surovikin doing things, which wants things to go fast to impress Putin, because Russian economy bleeds as never before…

UA reaction to it: 

Now a very large percentage of missiles are being shot down by Ukraine’s Armed Forces. But there are several possible explanations.

The first is that the Russians seek to keep (Ukrainian citizens - ed.) in their basements and shelters. They launch several rockets in batches so that the air raid is long. So that we are morally exhausted.

The second possibility is that they are testing our anti-aircraft defence. Where are our weak spots that can be hit massively. We understand that, too.

And the third reason may be that they are just illogical idiots, which is also a very likely scenario
".

 

Edit: Oh, and Ukraine has already retaliated back at some energy infrastructure in Belgorod. And I bet, there will be more to come 🤷‍♂️ 

Edited by Mamoulian War
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Sort of strange how the West must respond to these airstrikes, they did them before so not like it's some unprecedented escalation, fainting spells about infrastructure strikes aside - if reciprocity is ok, then the initial act wasn't all that heinous, surely.

 

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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US acting irresponsibly towards their own energy supplies... I guess Dems are that afraid of fuel prices affecting midterms, so they drain strategic reserves to dangerously low levels, where in fact it loses its stratego 'reserve' status. Just to hold of oil price and gasoline increases until the modterms... 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-tools-table-respond-opec-including-more-spr-releases-white-house-says

Who knows, maybe China will strike on Taiwan when SPR will be even lower just before or day afyer elections.... 

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18 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

'Funniest' thing has been watching desperate attempts to make it not a suicide- or worse homicide, if the driver was unaware- truck bomb and to avoid the term completely. Imagine an article on a truck bomb from an arab or muslim source not mentioning the term 'suicide attack' once. Guess suicide attacks are only carried out by brown people with bad religions.

This struck me as odd to such an extent that I decided to pay some attention to it. Not odd in the sense that I don't believe what you say about the media you've watched, but odd in the sense that the picture you describe bears little relation to the media I expose myself to. (This, btw, is an excellent concrete example of a phenomenon that I've noticed in various ways throughout this war.)

So, today, for instance, Helsingin Sanomat (Finnish language, apparently still the biggest newspaper in Scandinavia / Nordic countries) carries an article describing three explanatory theories in decreasing order of likelihood. The article quotes military personnel from various countries. The article lists the truck bomb theory as the most likely one (which, being no expert as I'm sure you'll agree by now, I also consider the most likely one), and this explanation itself contains the possibilities of remote activation or suicide mission. There is no shirking whatsoever around the subject of suicide mission or the way it is worded.

I don't know where the BBC is going, but much of what I've seen in recent years makes me believe that it is one English-speaking media that gets very squeamish in precisely the way you describe, and it's impossible for me to see much good in it. I could say something contumelious about a culture that has more blind spots than it can even conceive of, but that wouldn't do much good, either.

Anyway, while the desperate attemps you describe are indeed silly, there are good media out there, too.

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On 10/10/2022 at 1:18 PM, Mamoulian War said:

Hmm, I just found this yesterdays tweet. 

One bill is from june, one from july, one from september. Is here anyone from US, who has an insight what is going on with these bills?

In the US Congress any individual member (in eother house) can submit a bill for consideration, even without the support of their party leadership. However, other than in some very narrow circumstances, all bills must go to their appropriate committee and pass in committee, and then be brought to a floor vote by the majority leader (senate) or speaker (house). So the vast majority of bills proposed simply die off and never see the light of day. But members propose them because during election time they can run ads saying they proposed X, Y, Z, and they would technically be telling the truth.

In the cases of designating Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, or officially labeling the carnage in Ukraine as genocide, there is quite a bit of support for those positions across both parties, especially in the senate. However, Biden has publicly stated he doesn't agree with those approaches, for exactly the reason some others have brought up, which is that it would likely result in a break of dimplomatic relations with Russia which of course the US foreign policy Establishment does not want or support. But those bills do put pressure on the Administration to get tougher and tougher with Russia, especially rhetorically and diplomatically.

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3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I don't know where the BBC is going, but much of what I've seen in recent years makes me believe that it is one English-speaking media that gets very squeamish in precisely the way you describe, and it's impossible for me to see much good in it. I could say something contumelious about a culture that has more blind spots than it can even conceive of, but that wouldn't do much good, either.

It's certainly not just the BBC*. We get a lot of US/ Brit/ Australian media as sources here and that reluctance has been notable in all of them. It is a reluctance/ pattern rather than an absolute though, it's not like I've literally literally seen no one in the media as a whole saying it was/ could be a suicide attack- there just hasn't been a single article on NZ TV or in the papers that I've seen saying it though. 'Truck bomb' seems to be as close as they can get themselves to it with a large dollop of 'but it could have been anything'.

The oddest thing is that those articles I've seen which do consider an overt suicide attack in those terms always seem to throw out the 'maybe the driver did not know' as a better alternative. Suicide bombing may offend the western palate, but turning someone into a 'suicide' bomber without them knowing ought to be regarded as far worse than that, not better. At least a suicide bomber would have known what they were getting themselves in for. That really shows how much the reluctance is about using the term 'suicide bomber' with its long history and associated emotional baggage rather than the method itself.

*functionally, that article is outright propaganda, whether it was intended as such or (almost certainly the case, to be fair) not. Which is why it was specifically singled out. In terms of conscious motivation the writer may well believe he's being objective but having said that, actually checking things like the payload of a ship drone took me about 2 minutes. And it could have taken them that long too, if they'd thought of it. That they didn't does not speak well for the writer(s), whatever the practicalities of the reasons.

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5 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

A tinfoil hat theory, which I've crafted as one of odd but not impossible scenarios... 

 

1) China keeps economy in a shut down mode due to the 'covid', even though nowhere else this strick measuers are in place, not even close. 

2) China has strict population movement and communication restrictions

3) China has been ramping up military activity

4) Xi is waiting for 'lifetime' election

5) US has been ignoring quite openly all the red lines that China put on the Taiwan issue

6) China observes impact on the Western economies of current RU-UA conflict

 

Theory is, that with all the shutdown of economh and population controls, once Xi gets re-elected and the full scope of the economic damage comes to play into view in the West (especially EU), they will move with Taiwan formal annexation back to the mainland. 

Not sure how the weather season is there, but I would assume they would pick a moment where ocean/sea conditions are regularly bad. 

 

 

Not tinfoil hat.

What you say has a lot of truth to it and Taiwan being annexed by the CCCP is a very highly likely scenario before this decade is done. The entire thing is being floated in the billionaire/foreign owned media again and again to get the plebs used to the idea, so it's more accepted by them when it happens.

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33 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

actually checking things like the payload of a ship drone took me about 2 minutes.

The only thing I checked, by the way, was some security camera footage from behind the vehicles on the bridge. I checked it twice, and both times the immediate impression / sense I got was that the explosion was in front of the truck, not precisely where the truck was. Probably not true, though -- just a faulty impression.

Another thought that crossed my mind was that boy, that one car surely was close and I hope they're all right. Probably can't hear very well, though.

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Well, I really wish our government could support UA more, but we have currently in the government even bigger clowns than the the British one... We are the last country in EU, which still has no plan how to get over winter, with elevated energy prices for small businesess and for low incom people... Our minister of finance is a plagiarist, who refused to step down, after he was convicted that he really did it... Oh and one of his most noteworthy quotes, before becoming Minister of Finance was "I do not care about family finances, everything at our home is sorted by my wife." 🤷‍♂️

Also, the lower funding by EU, is caused a lot due to need of preparing for the winter, and to cut off the EU from Russian blackmail. Which is understandable. But this week, Germany donated its first IRIS-T and they upped they offer from 2 to 4 IIRC. And that is hell lot of money... Which is probably not counted in the data above, yet.

Edited by Mamoulian War

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