Ukraine Conflict - Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit

[Mamoulian War]

After more than a week of Ukrainian silence from Mariupol, they shared another anti-orc counter attack. Looks like their situation is still not completely ****ed, if they are still able to do what they have shown in the video... (It pretty much shows why the Ukraine vs Russia casualties are 1:5 or greater)...

It is heavily edited, but not gonna link it here. Again courtesy of Українська правда

If you are really sure, what you are doing, you can try to search for it by yourself (1:39s long video), cyrillics affiliated with it under the spoiler tag...

Spoiler

Азов показав успішну контратаку живої сили в Маріуполі

 

[kanisatha]

3 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Not all Chinese companies are operating in China. A lot of them, especially if they are in business with components, which can be used for weapon building, has ceased the operation in Russia, due to them, not willing to risk secondary sanctions against them. Same with a few biggest Chinese Banks and Chinese companies in energy business. China might be acting like a friend on the outside, but Russian defeat would open much of Russian industry for them to take.

This is it exactly. China is angry at the "arrogance" of the West, but ultimately understands that if it has to choose between doing business with Russia or the West but not both, there is no real choice there at all. This is especially true right now when China itself is going through some very tough economic and fiscal problems at home. Furthermore, as the world continues to de-globalize as a result of Covid, China stands to be the biggest loser under de-globalization. So China's strategy here is to "help" their Russian ally as much as they can but only while staying well outside the sanctions lines the West has drawn around Russia. They will never flagrantly cross those sanctions lines, even while publicly loudly talking a good talk about how they don't and won't accept or recognize those Western sanctions (just like they have done with Iran and North Korea for years).

[Malcador]

Well, on bright side maybe they did manage to save more than the ~50 I keep seeing about.

[BruceVC]

16 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

This is it exactly. China is angry at the "arrogance" of the West, but ultimately understands that if it has to choose between doing business with Russia or the West but not both, there is no real choice there at all. This is especially true right now when China itself is going through some very tough economic and fiscal problems at home. Furthermore, as the world continues to de-globalize as a result of Covid, China stands to be the biggest loser under de-globalization. So China's strategy here is to "help" their Russian ally as much as they can but only while staying well outside the sanctions lines the West has drawn around Russia. They will never flagrantly cross those sanctions lines, even while publicly loudly talking a good talk about how they don't and won't accept or recognize those Western sanctions (just like they have done with Iran and North Korea for years).

 I am still truly stupefied by the Chinese response to the virus in Shanghai ...its so counter productive trying to control this variant like they going about it. Its almost impossible to achieve a " zero Covid " policy when people need to travel and work in your country

One of my UK family members  works for a US hedge fund that has a very lucrative Shanghai investment presence . I think he has lived their for about 15 years or so. We not close but we get updates sometimes and he was saying how much this lockdown is hurting all businesses in Shanghai. He never talks politics or ever criticizes the CCP because they are contractually bound not to do that because of the possible response from the CCP towards foreign companies which I understand 

But he did mention how frustrated Chinese and foreign business people are with these lockdowns 

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Well, on bright side maybe they did manage to save more than the ~50 I keep seeing about.

The after parade at Sevastopol was counted to be 240 crewman strong.
There was also rumor from one of the survivors of another 200 being hospitalized.
Numbers might be exaggerated but I seriously doubt most of the crew would be lost without the ship going immediately down. 

[kanisatha]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

 I am still truly stupefied by the Chinese response to the virus in Shanghai ...its so counter productive trying to control this variant like they going about it. Its almost impossible to achieve a " zero Covid " policy when people need to travel and work in your country

One of my UK family members  works for a US hedge fund that has a very lucrative Shanghai investment presence . I think he has lived their for about 15 years or so. We not close but we get updates sometimes and he was saying how much this lockdown is hurting all businesses in Shanghai. He never talks politics or ever criticizes the CCP because they are contractually bound not to do that because of the possible response from the CCP towards foreign companies which I understand 

But he did mention how frustrated Chinese and foreign business people are with these lockdowns 

Yup, lockdowns never made any scientific sense anyway and were all political decisions. What the Chinese are doing now is staggeringly stupid. But I'm good with countries like China and Russia doing stupid things, because why should it only be my country (which I love) suffering the consequences of doing stupid things. Our stupid policymaking needs to be offset my stupider policymaking in rival countries.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

The after parade at Sevastopol was counted to be 240 crewman strong.
There was also rumor from one of the survivors of another 200 being hospitalized.
Numbers might be exaggerated but I seriously doubt most of the crew would be lost without the ship going immediately down. 

Here is the video from the parade, I did not count it, but they are saying maximum 100 people present at the parade... And Russia being Russia, you never know, if this are real soldiers from Moskva or some propaganda muppets I would bet most of them are just muppets, because Putler was never before humiliated as much as with the loss of this ship, and they would never admit that Ukraine destroyed one of their crown jewels of navy and any casualty on board connected to it. Especially if the crown jewel is named after the capital of Russia.

The ship was packed with dozens of rockets, so if hit at the correct place, the aftermath and cooking off could destroy a lot of people on the ship.

And in other news, there was probably a tea party in Moscow Gazprombank offices

Aaaand another interesting news. Remember the other ship blown up in Berdyansk port? There were two more ships running away from explosion and at least one of them burning. And today, the captain of one of these ships has been "relieved" from duty and joined the captain of Moskva.

 

Edited April 18, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[pmp10]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Here is the video from the parade, I did not count it, but they are saying maximum 100 people present at the parade... And Russia being Russia, you never know, if this are real soldiers from Moskva or some propaganda muppets I would bet most of them are just muppets, because Putler was never before humiliated as much as with the loss of this ship, and they would never admit that Ukraine destroyed one of their crown jewels of navy and any casualty on board connected to it. Especially if the crown jewel is named after the capital of Russia.

The ship was packed with dozens of rockets, so if hit at the correct place, the aftermath and cooking off could destroy a lot of people on the ship.

The thing was caught by commercial satellite (or at least an eerily similar parade was) and analyzed.
But with ship obviously gone I'm not sure it matters that much.

And in more important news: Zelensky just announced that Russian Donbass offensive is now ongoing.
Most likely the second most important battle of this war.

Edited April 18, 2022 by pmp10

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, Malcador said:

Well, on bright side maybe they did manage to save more than the ~50 I keep seeing about.

Don't think there's much doubt of that, plain not enough damage- and none aft- and all the lifeboats have been deployed. Most of the pro Ukrainians have switched to '100 survivors' now anyway. At this point the 50 survivor die hards can join the Snake Island Martyrs and Ghost of Kiev aficionados. They'll have lost a fair few though.

(For similar incidents in the Falklands or the Stark losses dead and injured were up to ~30%, which would be ~170 for the Moskva if it was fully manned)

[kanisatha]

Here's the beginning of the long-term damage to Russia:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/13/technology/russia-tech-workers.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/russias-brain-drain-hundreds-of-thousands-of-professionals-and-highly-skilled-workers-have-left-country-since-putins-invasion-of-ukraine-11649688506

[kanisatha]

And here's an update on the lessons of Russia's Ukraine misadventure for Taiwan. Another excellent read, @BruceVC. And every item on their list is something I've been talking about for years, but Taiwanese politicians and generals stupidly waste their defense budget on flashy hardware for political PR benefits over practical defense needs, as do other countries I suppose (India being another good example of this phenomenon).

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/eight-new-points-on-the-porcupine-more-ukrainian-lessons-for-taiwan/

[Zoraptor]

Always love those sort of articles, though I suspect not for the same reasons.

(Patriot zealots are always amusing. Yeah write a big article on the lessons of Ukraine where one entire point is ballistic missile defence while completely ignoring the lessons of Yemen. Saudi Arabia has to fire off an entire launcher to reliably hit an antique Scud, and the Houthis veritable 1.2 drones/ missiles per day had Saudi requesting hundreds of resupply missiles. What the literal asterisks is Taiwan going to do against China who can probably fire off that number per minute on a fairly sustained basis if they wanted? They're not even very effective against ~half the most impoverished nation in the ME, one that has been bombed and under blockade for 6 years and whose armaments are mostly machined in a Saada shed by people hopped up on Qat. Though of course to be fair a lot of the well published failures in Saudi's air defences have been against things Patriots aren't really designed for, but they haven't done brilliantly at the things they were designed for either. Oh yeah, and no mention of the  oft cited 'airforce in being' that Ukraine has managed to maintain when implying more Patriots would be better than F-16s.

Really though, every single lesson when it comes to hardware has to be filtered through Ukraine having a land border with multiple friendly countries where you can literally send supplies in by truck or train and they arrive the same day; something Taiwan lacks entirely. Once you've fired off your supply of missiles those Patriots might as well be paperweights, and if you're going to try and use them for missile defence they're going to be firing a Very Great Deal)

[Gorth]

8 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

The ship was packed with dozens of rockets, so if hit at the correct place, the aftermath and cooking off could destroy a lot of people on the ship.

Tangentially related, but I saw an interesting video a couple of days ago explaining why the Russian tanks seems to blow up with the same eagerness as English WWI battlecruisers at Jutland... All the ammo is stored in the same compartment as the crew, whereas western tanks (he used the Abrams as an example) has an armoured separation between crew and ammo, and the ammo room is designed to allow explosions to be dissipated away from the crew. The tank may still be a total loss, but the crew survival rates are just a lot higher. If a T72 takes a hit, the explosion is contained within the crew compartment, no survival chance for the crew.

 

Edit: Notice in one of the early videos shown, how the crews are willing to run through and get gunned down by machine gun fire, rather than stay inside their tanks.

[Malcador]

Well, to be fair if your tank's going to get hit by an ATGM and there are enemy infantry, you're going to have to chance it and run before said MGs regardless of how well your tank manages the hit.  

Soviet philosophy for ship design is something else though, the "more dakka" approach.

[Gorth]

47 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Well, to be fair if your tank's going to get hit by an ATGM and there are enemy infantry, you're going to have to chance it and run before said MGs regardless of how well your tank manages the hit.  

Soviet philosophy for ship design is something else though, the "more dakka" approach.

"Glass Cannon"? Mind you, I don't know much about Soviet ship design other than their subs tend to either implode and sink without outside interference or get stuck on Swedish coastal reefs (Whisky on the Rocks) or that aircraft carrier that got sold to China as "floating casino"

 

 

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

Tangentially related, but I saw an interesting video a couple of days ago explaining why the Russian tanks seems to blow up with the same eagerness as English WWI battlecruisers at Jutland... All the ammo is stored in the same compartment as the crew, whereas western tanks (he used the Abrams as an example) has an armoured separation between crew and ammo, and the ammo room is designed to allow explosions to be dissipated away from the crew. The tank may still be a total loss, but the crew survival rates are just a lot higher. If a T72 takes a hit, the explosion is contained within the crew compartment, no survival chance for the crew.

Funnily enough the Russians did retrodesign separate/ blow out ammo storage on at least one model of T-80. It didn't proceed to production though and the prototype was (supposedly) destroyed in Ukraine.

As with all things it's a matter of balance. You can buy 4 T-72s for the price of an Abrams, they're smaller and lighter and the autoloader means one less crew. The balancing factor is definitely survivability, though blow out panels are not 100% either. I kind of presume that the unmanned turret in the T-14 would give better survivability, but I don't think we know enough about that tank to be sure.

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Here's the beginning of the long-term damage to Russia:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/13/technology/russia-tech-workers.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/russias-brain-drain-hundreds-of-thousands-of-professionals-and-highly-skilled-workers-have-left-country-since-putins-invasion-of-ukraine-11649688506

When Putins War is over this will be one of the most damaging and long term  economic consequences. This type of brain drain cant be replaced easily

This is actually the perfect time for all those who dislike and mistrust the West and its ideology to immigrate to Russia. Russia will need committed people and I can imagine getting a work visa and citizenship should be easier than anytime before? And you can learn Russia, I wouldnt see that as an obstacle ?

Their is absolutely no reason for anyone living in a Western country to be forced to  be part of that type of corrupt, Colonial, Imperialist and Capitalist system? 

Strike while the iron is hot I say 

[Mamoulian War]

@pmp10@Zoraptor@Gorth

One more video about Moskva, this time from impartial source based on leaked pictures and videos. They come to an outcome, that the damage on the ship was definitely much higher than on the first sight. There are a lot of areas on the whole ship, which shows significant cook off inside the ship. Also it was said somewhere in the comments, that this ship had their officer quarter just above the storage of munition (can someone confirm that this is true?). Therefore both of these indices are showing the possibility for a lot of casualties (mostly in the ranks of officers), even though all of the rescue boats has been deployed.

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

Oh, and I forgot to mention, Shoigu died. Again. Probably. After 27th heatstroke and a cup of tea with Putin. Maybe. While falling over the balcony. Allegedly.

 

I am really curious, if this turns out true or false in few days...

[Zoraptor]

45 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

One more video about Moskva, this time from impartial source based on leaked pictures and videos. They come to an outcome, that the damage on the ship was definitely much higher than on the first sight. There are a lot of areas on the whole ship, which shows significant cook off inside the ship. Also it was said somewhere in the comments, that this ship had their officer quarter just above the storage of munition (can someone confirm that this is true?). Therefore both of these indices are showing the possibility for a lot of casualties (mostly in the ranks of officers), even though all of the rescue boats has been deployed.

There's certainly been smoke escaping (except maybe the aft most circled area in the thumbnail; there's a big hatch there which seems to be open and the 'smoke damage' is suspiciously rectangular). It's not indicative of all those areas themselves being on fire though, as that damage is usually different. 

That's HMS Sheffield after burning out uncontrollably in the Falklands War- the damage is pretty distinctive.

There's definitely some similar damage forward under the superstructure, but none visible aft.

[Lexx]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Oh, and I forgot to mention, Shoigu died. Again. Probably. After 27th heatstroke and a cup of tea with Putin. Maybe. While falling over the balcony. Allegedly.

 

I am really curious, if this turns out true or false in few days...

Would be kinda sad. He managed to play the game for so long and dodged all the time. It's quite an achievement.

Edited April 19, 2022 by Lexx

[Katphood]

Dang, stuff you never thought you'd see in the 21st century. 

[xzar_monty]

Putin awards precisely those troops accused of war crimes in Bucha. Let no one anywhere be in doubt as to whether the wholesale slaughter of civilians is intentional or not. It is a priority. This is also Putin's way of giving the finger to the west.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/19/ukraine-russia-war-bucha-brigade-award/

[rjshae]

20 hours ago, BruceVC said:

 I am still truly stupefied by the Chinese response to the virus in Shanghai ...its so counter productive trying to control this variant like they going about it. Its almost impossible to achieve a " zero Covid " policy when people need to travel and work in your country

One of my UK family members  works for a US hedge fund that has a very lucrative Shanghai investment presence . I think he has lived their for about 15 years or so. We not close but we get updates sometimes and he was saying how much this lockdown is hurting all businesses in Shanghai. He never talks politics or ever criticizes the CCP because they are contractually bound not to do that because of the possible response from the CCP towards foreign companies which I understand 

But he did mention how frustrated Chinese and foreign business people are with these lockdowns 

When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

[Gfted1]

9 hours ago, Gorth said:

Tangentially related, but I saw an interesting video a couple of days ago explaining why the Russian tanks seems to blow up with the same eagerness as English WWI battlecruisers at Jutland...

Whats really surprised me about the Russian tanks is the seeming ineffectiveness of the explosive reactive armor panels. I honestly thought they would do a better job defeating ATGM's.