A Fifth of Coronavirus

[Zoraptor]

Yep, that's not a great study for actual practice, since it's just a mathematical model from mathematicians and they seem to... struggle with medical justifications and reasoning. The question is not whether you're safer at 6' or 60' as no one suggests social distancing of 60', it's whether 6' has the same risk as a closer distance like 3' or whatever.

You also cannot say much about outdoor transmission when you cannot trace exposure well- which is the case in most of the world where you may have, say, got covid from someone in the supermarket, or someones else at the supermarket, or got it from someone in the car park. No way to tell, you'd just presume it was someone inside the supermarket instead of outside. We've definitely had outside transmission here, with the most well documented case involving a border worker and shop worker/ student whose only contact was them walking past the same place at more or less the same time in November last year. We could only tell that though because there were so few community cases (ie 1) so there was only one possible source.

Edited April 24, 2021 by Zoraptor

[LadyCrimson]

If the vaccine becomes something like the "regular flu" vaccine where people need to get a booster every year or even every six months or something like that, I wonder how well the vaccination rate will be over several years. 

People tend to become more ... lax ... when something becomes an annual thingie, vs. thinking they can do it just once in their lifetime or maybe once every 5-10 years.

[rjshae]

1 hour ago, LadyCrimson said:

If the vaccine becomes something like the "regular flu" vaccine where people need to get a booster every year or even every six months or something like that, I wonder how well the vaccination rate will be over several years. 

People tend to become more ... lax ... when something becomes an annual thingie, vs. thinking they can do it just once in their lifetime or maybe once every 5-10 years.

Right now we have antiviral drugs for treating more extreme influenza cases. What I suspect the medical community will do over time is develop treatments that make most hospitalizations unnecessary. That will reduce if not eliminate the need for the more extreme quarantine measures we've been employing. We'll just get better at treating it.

[Gfted1]

3 hours ago, LadyCrimson said:

If the vaccine becomes something like the "regular flu" vaccine where people need to get a booster every year or even every six months or something like that, I wonder how well the vaccination rate will be over several years. 

People tend to become more ... lax ... when something becomes an annual thingie, vs. thinking they can do it just once in their lifetime or maybe once every 5-10 years.

True dat. Ive LITERALLY never gotten the flu vaccine.

[Sarex]

Seems there will be a rollout of a third dose of the Sinofarm/Chinese vaccine, but it will be based on the immune response of the individual. How they will determine that I have no idea... Seems like a lot of work to test everyone for antibodies. Either way it looks like the latest research shows that the Chinese variant does gets to over 90% efficiency but it takes significantly more time to get there.

[213374U]

On 4/24/2021 at 11:23 PM, Zoraptor said:

Yep, that's not a great study for actual practice, since it's just a mathematical model from mathematicians and they seem to... struggle with medical justifications and reasoning. The question is not whether you're safer at 6' or 60' as no one suggests social distancing of 60', it's whether 6' has the same risk as a closer distance like 3' or whatever.

You also cannot say much about outdoor transmission when you cannot trace exposure well- which is the case in most of the world where you may have, say, got covid from someone in the supermarket, or someones else at the supermarket, or got it from someone in the car park. No way to tell, you'd just presume it was someone inside the supermarket instead of outside. We've definitely had outside transmission here, with the most well documented case involving a border worker and shop worker/ student whose only contact was them walking past the same place at more or less the same time in November last year. We could only tell that though because there were so few community cases (ie 1) so there was only one possible source.

Mathematical models from mathematicians, including the infamous Imperial College black box model (which, unlike the study in question, was never submitted for peer review) have been hailed as "SCIENCE!!1" ‑and more importantly, used as a basis for policy‑ for more than a year now. The >6' limit certainly does have a significance when establishing maximum occupancy limits, for example. The six-foot rule dates back to 1940s research that didn't account for masks or air circulation, as well. The implication is that small droplets are driving spread when people wear masks and so physical distancing isn't as important as exposure time, for instance.

I don't know, simply hand-waving one study away as just "mathematicians doing math" strikes me as... selective, given the course of the discussion, and more generally, the weight given to mathematical models in science as a whole.

As always, more research is needed, and I wouldn't consider one study the end-all be-all. But I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand either.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Sarex said:

Seems there will be a rollout of a third dose of the Sinofarm/Chinese vaccine, but it will be based on the immune response of the individual. How they will determine that I have no idea... Seems like a lot of work to test everyone for antibodies. Either way it looks like the latest research shows that the Chinese variant does gets to over 90% efficiency but it takes significantly more time to get there.

Sarex you seem to be pushing the Sinofarm vaccines ....can we trust this information from China? Its always something that has to be considered. But for me I believe that no vaccine would be publicly distributed to any country without correct testing and accurate data about test subjects 

However I will only take Sputnik and Sinofarm when the CDC or WHO officially endorses them ....I am not happy with the general Russian vaccine feedback for example  

[Sarex]

The information is from somewhere far more trustworthy, Saudi Arabia.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Sarex said:

The information is from somewhere far more trustworthy, Saudi Arabia.

Sarex I didnt realize that Serbia is not part of the EU yet, I am glad Zora pointed this out to me because I assumed that Serbia, like Croatia, was a member 

How are things in Serbia now about joining the EU, do people want to and what is the delay. Also I must recognize how the  prime minister of Serbia is a gay women which is not only progressive but a bold step for any country.  I am assuming she is doing a good job but its not something I would have expected to see so soon in any east European country as I realize most of these countries have some conservative views that take time to change 

 

[Gromnir]

HA! Good Fun!

[Sarex]

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Sarex I didnt realize that Serbia is not part of the EU yet, I am glad Zora pointed this out to me because I assumed that Serbia, like Croatia, was a member 

How are things in Serbia now about joining the EU, do people want to and what is the delay. Also I must recognize how the  prime minister of Serbia is a gay women which is not only progressive but a bold step for any country.  I am assuming she is doing a good job but its not something I would have expected to see so soon in any east European country as I realize most of these countries have some conservative views that take time to change

The delay is that the West wants us to recognize Kosovo, but they don't want to straight out say that is what is blocking our admission. The negotiations are dead in the water as Serbia fulfilled all of it's promises from the Brussels Agreements and the Albanians from Kosovo didn't honor any of theirs, so basically the talks are dead until they honor their part.

As for the Prime minister, she mostly does what the President tells her. Why he picked her I couldn't tell you...Maybe because he wanted to score some brownie points in the EU, maybe because he trusts her, or maybe both. The reaction was not that bad, people poked fun but that's as far as it went as far as I can remember.

[ShadySands]

 

8 hours ago, 213374U said:

As always, more research is needed, and I wouldn't consider one study the end-all be-all. But I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand either.

Sorry, I couldn't resist

I should be getting my first shot sometime in the next couple of weeks

[Raithe]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-florida-family-accused-of-selling-coronavirus-miracle-cure-which-turned-out-to-be-bleach-12287651

A Florida family has been accused of selling thousands of bottles of toxic industrial bleach by touting it as a miracle coronavirus cure.
Mark Grenon, 62, and his sons Jonathan, Jordan and Joseph allegedly made more than $1m (£719,725) selling their "Miracle Mineral Solution" and claiming it could cure illnesses including cancer, malaria and COVID-19.
Officials said the solution being sold was actually chlorine dioxide, which is typically used for industrial water treatment and can be deadly if ingested.
Authorities have not approved the substance for medical use and have said it is dangerous to ingest, warning people against using it for any reason.
****
According to court documents, the family manufactured the solution in a shed in Bradenton, south of Tampa.
After raiding the property, authorities found dozens of chemical drums, 10,000 pounds of sodium nitrate and thousands of bottles of the solution, the US attorneys office for southern Florida said.
The family had already sold more than 28,000 bottles and had seen a huge jump in revenue - from an average of $32,000 (£23,000) a month to $123,000 (£88,580) - court documents said.
The papers also allege that on a podcast released last year, Mark Grenon had referred to the 2nd Amendment and threatened a federal judge over a court order halting the sale of MMS and claiming she was committing "treason".

[Zoraptor]

9 hours ago, 213374U said:

Mathematical models from mathematicians, including the infamous Imperial College black box model (which, unlike the study in question, was never submitted for peer review) have been hailed as "SCIENCE!!1" ‑and more importantly, used as a basis for policy‑ for more than a year now. The >6' limit certainly does have a significance when establishing maximum occupancy limits, for example. The six-foot rule dates back to 1940s research that didn't account for masks or air circulation, as well. The implication is that small droplets are driving spread when people wear masks and so physical distancing isn't as important as exposure time, for instance.

I don't know, simply hand-waving one study away as just "mathematicians doing math" strikes me as... selective, given the course of the discussion, and more generally, the weight given to mathematical models in science as a whole.

As always, more research is needed, and I wouldn't consider one study the end-all be-all. But I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand either.

The 6' rule (or 2m rule here) does have a basis in terms of reduction, since it minimises larger droplet dispersal, accidental contact and does reduce direct exposure to smaller droplets somewhat too. The fact is that for something genuinely airborne and highly infectious- like measles- you are fundamentally very much in trouble if you're in an enclosed area with someone and don't have immunity, at almost any practical distance. Covid is a lot less- about 1/6 as- infectious than measles though.

As with most things covid related it's not about out and out prevention of spread. If you want that you do what we did here for 5 weeks and stop anyone going anywhere that isn't absolutely essential, a response in which social distancing is almost entirely irrelevant, and such virus as you have burns itself out inside individual houses. As with most measures like mask wearing or washing hands social distancing is about slowing/ minimising spread in a situation in which life in general has to go on.

I'm not excluding the model for being just maths though, I'm excluding it for not asking/ answering a relevant question with its model; to whit, it's irrelevant if 6' or 60' is better, the question is whether 6' is better than a closer distance or not. If it is, then it's a sensible mitigation factor  even if it's otherwise the same as 60', because 60' is obviously impractical anyway and the idea is to maximise prevention while minimising other impact. But they don't answer that question.

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Sarex said:

The delay is that the West wants us to recognize Kosovo, but they don't want to straight out say that is what is blocking our admission. The negotiations are dead in the water as Serbia fulfilled all of it's promises from the Brussels Agreements and the Albanians from Kosovo didn't honor any of theirs, so basically the talks are dead until they honor their part.

As for the Prime minister, she mostly does what the President tells her. Why he picked her I couldn't tell you...Maybe because he wanted to score some brownie points in the EU, maybe because he trusts her, or maybe both. The reaction was not that bad, people poked fun but that's as far as it went as far as I can remember.

Interesting, I understand the Kosovo issue. Its a pity the EU is asking for this but Serbia is not in the wrong to not recognize Kosovo. But economy of Serbia is doing well and ironically being part of the EU would have impacted your success in getting vaccines so like the UK this is one of the reasons not being part of the EU is beneficial 

But I do think Serbia is more than ready to join the EU if they want to but the Kosovo issue is about a valid principle and anywhere in the world certain historical issues define principles and you cannot just change those principles 

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Raithe said:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-florida-family-accused-of-selling-coronavirus-miracle-cure-which-turned-out-to-be-bleach-12287651

 

 

Should make them drink a gallon of it as punishment.

[Gromnir]

3 hours ago, Raithe said:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-florida-family-accused-of-selling-coronavirus-miracle-cure-which-turned-out-to-be-bleach-12287651

 

 

the us attorney's office for the southern district o' florida made their announcement regarding the grennons on a friday, which is atypical but hardly unique. unless there is some kinda motivation to avoid immediate media blowback, fridays is not the expected day of release for this kinda thing.

however, friday, april 23, 2021 were the one year anniversary o' trump's disinfectant and sunshine epiphanies. am gonna guess the timing were not coincidence. 

everybody gives birx heat for not contradicting trump, but the dhs science guy were active agreeing with trump. 

HA! Good Fun!

[213374U]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

But they don't answer that question.

Don't they? There is a section dedicated to the discussion of the importance of respiratory jets, which aren't an issue beyond close-range (<2m) interactions:

"We note that the use of face masks will have a marked effect on respiratory jets, with the fluxes of both exhaled pathogen and momentum being reduced substantially at their source. Indeed, Chen et al. (42) note that, when masks are worn, the primary respiratory flow may be described in terms of a rising thermal plume, which is of significantly less risk to neighbors. With a population of individuals wearing face masks, the risk posed by respiratory jets will thus be largely eliminated, while that of the well-mixed ambient will remain."

 

According to the study, closed, ventilated spaces become "well-mixed", resulting in an homogeneous dispersal of particles which are then filtered out or inhaled. The study then gives an estimate of how long it would be safe to remain in such a space, depending on several factors which are parameterized. Interestingly:

"Our analysis sounds the alarm for elderly homes and long-term care facilities, which account for a large fraction of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths (86⇓–88). In nursing homes in New York City, law requires a maximum occupancy of three and recommends a minimum area of 80 ft2 per person. In Fig. 3B, we plot the guideline for a tolerance of ϵ=0.01 transmission probability, chosen to reflect the vulnerability of the community. Once again, the effect of ventilation is striking. For natural ventilation (0.34 ACH), the Six-Foot Rule fails after only 3 min under quasi-steady conditions, or after 17 min for the transient response to the arrival of an infected person, in which case the Fifteen-Minute Rule is only marginally safe."

 

So from what I gather, the issue is that the 6' rule just isn't an adequate measure for safety. As it so often happens, it's a tad more complicated.

[Gorth]

44 minutes ago, 213374U said:

Don't they? There is a section dedicated to the discussion of the importance of respiratory jets, which aren't an issue beyond close-range (<2m) interactions:

"We note that the use of face masks will have a marked effect on respiratory jets, with the fluxes of both exhaled pathogen and momentum being reduced substantially at their source. Indeed, Chen et al. (42) note that, when masks are worn, the primary respiratory flow may be described in terms of a rising thermal plume, which is of significantly less risk to neighbors. With a population of individuals wearing face masks, the risk posed by respiratory jets will thus be largely eliminated, while that of the well-mixed ambient will remain."

 

According to the study, closed, ventilated spaces become "well-mixed", resulting in an homogeneous dispersal of particles which are then filtered out or inhaled. The study then gives an estimate of how long it would be safe to remain in such a space, depending on several factors which are parameterized. Interestingly:

"Our analysis sounds the alarm for elderly homes and long-term care facilities, which account for a large fraction of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths (86⇓–88). In nursing homes in New York City, law requires a maximum occupancy of three and recommends a minimum area of 80 ft2 per person. In Fig. 3B, we plot the guideline for a tolerance of ϵ=0.01 transmission probability, chosen to reflect the vulnerability of the community. Once again, the effect of ventilation is striking. For natural ventilation (0.34 ACH), the Six-Foot Rule fails after only 3 min under quasi-steady conditions, or after 17 min for the transient response to the arrival of an infected person, in which case the Fifteen-Minute Rule is only marginally safe."

 

So from what I gather, the issue is that the 6' rule just isn't an adequate measure for safety. As it so often happens, it's a tad more complicated.

Sort of related, one of the short term lockdowns in Australia (I think it was the Sydney one, where the virus managed to get out of the quarantine hotels and into the community) proved beyond any doubt that the virus is alive and well as an airborne agent. First the security guard was accused of not sticking to protocols when people in the neighbor hotel room got infected (and they were at the end of their quarantine period), but then they fast forwarded the CCTV from the hotel hallway and showed nobody ever left their rooms and the guard was never close to any of the doors (i.e. he followed protocols). They are still trying to work out how the airflows in the hotel could carry the infection from one room to another.

[Zoraptor]

Similar here, they've been retrofitting hotels to improve ventilation over the past few months. As the article says, they haven't absolutely proven airborne transmission, but it's certainly the most plausible method.

2 hours ago, 213374U said:

Don't they? There is a section dedicated to the discussion of the importance of respiratory jets, which aren't an issue beyond close-range (<2m) interactions

That's only one factor though, there are a lot of factors at work at close distance other than that, such as the ones I specifically mentioned. Mostly I find the no difference between 6' and 60' comparison to be kind of pointless and designed to generate headlines rather than say something important, so I'm not really disposed favourably to it from the start.

I'd fully accept that the virus is airborne, but that isn't the only way to transmit it. Kind of sucks if you're in a situation where you have to spend a work day in a poorly ventilated room with lots of people and in that case social distancing may be approaching pointless, much as it is if you were living with someone. But there are plenty of situations where that isn't the case.

[rjshae]

Even with an expanding cloud of aerosols, I have to think that the inverse square law still holds at low quantities -- you're going to get four times as much exposure at one meter as you do at two. Granted if an enclosed saturated with viral aerosols then distance isn't going to matter. But that's why ventilation is also important.

[Gromnir]

On 4/26/2021 at 12:46 PM, ShadySands said:

 

Sorry, I couldn't resist

I should be getting my first shot sometime in the next couple of weeks

reason provide for the school prohibiting the further employment o' those vaccinated: "until more is known, they are going to ere on the side of caution."

tuition runs from $16k per year for part-time pre schoolers to $30k for middle school. 

Miami private school says teachers who get coronavirus vaccine aren’t welcome, citing debunked misinformation

no! no, no, no, no, no!

HA! Good Fun!

ps worst part is, we would not be surprised if this move boosted their enrollment.

Edited April 27, 2021 by Gromnir

[Gorth]

Miami, huh?... an actual school run by Florida Man

 

[ShadySands]

Err on the side of caution... by NOT allowing vaccinations against a deadly virus. Okay then. 

[rjshae]

The school was founded by an anti-vaxxer, so... consistent. Funny thing about anti-vaxxers -- you probably get a lot worse injected into your body just from the bug bites. But that's "natural" so it's okay.