Military Thread: Humanity Hanging from a Cross of Iron

[kanisatha]

18 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

*It also has to be said, we've heard that China has peaked about as long as that too. That will be true at some point, inevitably, but it's been the geopol equivalent of working nuclear fusion for the past twenty years; always coming, never arriving. To be fair, plenty of people talk up US government debt as a similar ticking time bomb, and it hasn't gone off yet either.

This is simply not true, at least within academic circles. In academic writings the story has consistently been of continuing Chinese growth including their overtaking the US in absolute economic size. Brands and Beckley are the first to publish academic analysis showing China has peaked. And they are not just  saying this in words. Beckley has another book recently which is entirely filled with numerical data (economic and social) demonstrating this conclusion.

Also, Xi personally has demonstrated repeatedly, including in his handling of his power within the party, that he is extremely risk accepting and operates in the domain of gains (a fundamental change from previous PRC leaders post-Mao who were risk averse). And he has also personally staked his legacy on the reunification issue.

[Guard Dog]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

This is simply not true, at least within academic circles. In academic writings the story has consistently been of continuing Chinese growth including their overtaking the US in absolute economic size. Brands and Beckley are the first to publish academic analysis showing China has peaked. And they are not just  saying this in words. Beckley has another book recently which is entirely filled with numerical data (economic and social) demonstrating this conclusion.

Also, Xi personally has demonstrated repeatedly, including in his handling of his power within the party, that he is extremely risk accepting and operates in the domain of gains (a fundamental change from previous PRC leaders post-Mao who were risk averse). And he has also personally staked his legacy on the reunification issue.

A few years ago I might have agreed with you. But over the last few years Xi and the CCP are actively reversing a lot of the actions over the last 30 years that made China economically successful. 

[Zoraptor]

4 hours ago, kanisatha said:

This is simply not true, at least within academic circles. In academic writings the story has consistently been of continuing Chinese growth including their overtaking the US in absolute economic size. Brands and Beckley are the first to publish academic analysis showing China has peaked. And they are not just  saying this in words. Beckley has another book recently which is entirely filled with numerical data (economic and social) demonstrating this conclusion.

Also, Xi personally has demonstrated repeatedly, including in his handling of his power within the party, that he is extremely risk accepting and operates in the domain of gains (a fundamental change from previous PRC leaders post-Mao who were risk averse). And he has also personally staked his legacy on the reunification issue.

For that academic level is well outside any pretension of expertise I might have. I've seen plenty of popular media up to think tank level articles claiming that China has peaked or is peaking over the past 20 years though. Mostly focusing on demographics, 'middle income trap'/ not enough internal market type stuff and claims that Chinese manufacturing was inevitably going to move to [place] as costs in China increased/ China was cooking the books, the growth wasn't real and it was all going to come crashing down. Of course, in that sort of analysis you don't really have to back anything up with proper data, and they're largely intended to be disposable, not be remembered specifically and say what the audience wants to hear because the author has to fill his weekly opinion piece with something.

I'd agree that Xi is less risk averse than recent previous leaders of China. That's largely predicated on him not wanting to quit gracefully as he was supposed to and wanting to neuter the parts of the party that could remove him. Invading Taiwan is a whole order of magnitude more risky than anything else though. I can see an invasion happening if Taiwan decided to proclaim independence, and that is to a large extent what the posturing is meant to head off because if that happened he would almost certainly feel compelled to act.

[InsaneCommander]

23 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Personally, I don't think China will invade Taiwan. Not because of any military deterrent though. The ultimate problem that Taiwan has is that while the Chinese have air superiority they'll be able to degrade AA and anti ship capabilities pretty cheaply using Artsakh like tactics. Sure, you can fire off missiles, but you'll lose the launcher and won't be able to replace them. You may also have to shoot at very low value targets- the Armenians shot down literally dozens of ancient biplanes; in the end they had the choice of not using their AA, in which case it might as well not exist, or using it and having it blown up.

Chinese leadership is risk averse, and the risks of invading Taiwan is one thing that could get Xi outright removed in the medium term and tarnish his legacy permanently. The legitimacy of the CCP is almost completely based on sustained economic improvement, and the results of a Taiwan invasion would see the Chinese economy implode. It wouldn't be great for near everyone else either, but a lot of societal domestic issues are ratcheted down by ~10% growth (even if nominal) within China and a whole generation+ has known nothing but such growth*. The counter balance to that is Xi wanting to leave a permanent legacy, and the big short term nationalist boost that a successful 'reunification' would garner. But in that Erdogan makes a good comparison- nationalist boosts to popularity wear out pretty quickly, and you need more and more of them more and more quickly to get the same effect. They aren't an answer to potential longer term economic woes.

*It also has to be said, we've heard that China has peaked about as long as that too. That will be true at some point, inevitably, but it's been the geopol equivalent of working nuclear fusion for the past twenty years; always coming, never arriving. To be fair, plenty of people talk up US government debt as a similar ticking time bomb, and it hasn't gone off yet either.

This is more or less what I believe too. Not that I'm even close to being a specialist in any of this.

I imagine that, peaking or not, China's influence, at least in its neighbourhood, will increase and eventually they will have Taiwan without a war.

Edited October 11, 2021 by InsaneCommander

[kanisatha]

On 10/11/2021 at 11:31 AM, Guard Dog said:

A few years ago I might have agreed with you. But over the last few years Xi and the CCP are actively reversing a lot of the actions over the last 30 years that made China economically successful. 

Yes, correct, which serves to support what I'm saying.

 

21 hours ago, InsaneCommander said:

This is more or less what I believe too. Not that I'm even close to being a specialist in any of this.

I imagine that, peaking or not, China's influence, at least in its neighbourhood, will increase and eventually they will have Taiwan without a war.

No, China's influence is waning, especially among the more "normal" regional states like RoK, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, and Singapore (and where it already did not have any influence in Japan and India). These states are increasingly actively working to counter Chinese ambitions. And in Taiwan itself, anti-PRC sentiments have steadily increased with each generation. I believe the Chinese leadership was willing to wait out the Taiwanese people in the past because they too believed, then, that the Taiwanese people will become more pro-China as their memories of the civil war fade and China becomes more attractive as it rises in wealth and power. But now they see this is not happening, and especially young Taiwanese are more estranged from the PRC and, if anything, increasingly identifying as Taiwanese and not Chinese.

Xi is getting desperate. He knows he's never going to get unification without a fight. But yes, he is also very nervous about launching a war that the world blames him for. That's why he is pursuing a policy currently of trying to intimidate and scare and rattle Taiwan, with all the airpower incursions and missile firings. He needs Taiwan to mess up and do something stupid (in reaction to these PRC provocations) that he can then use to justify the invasion, so that there is at least division within the international community about who is to blame.

[Gfted1]

Robot Dogs Now Have Assault Rifles Mounted On Their Backs.

Aww yeah!

[ShadySands]

Give it EP 607 drones that launch from it and I'll take a dozen to go with my Delta Force motorcycle (Chuck Norris not included).

[Amentep]

Sounds more Megaforce than Delta Force...

 

[ShadySands]

I wonder if they got the idea from that since it came out a few years earlier

I only threw in the Echo Papa drones because I haven't made a Trek reference in a while

[Malcador]

6 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

Robot Dogs Now Have Assault Rifles Mounted On Their Backs.

Aww yeah!

US cops already lusting for them.

[Gfted1]

Im disappointed that the turret cant slew, but I guess that would knock the platform over if it fired while pointing to the left or right side. Something to work towards on v2. Should probably add a grenade launcher to it too. 

[Gfted1]

First Live Hypersonic Missile Rounds To Be Delivered to Army Unit Next Year.

[Raithe]

Telegraph - Royal Marines force US troops to surrender just days into training exercise

Royal Marines have forced US troops to surrender just days into a training exercise after eliminating almost the entire unit.

The British commandos “dominated” US forces during a training exercise in California, using a new battle structure.

The Telegraph understands the US forces asked for a “reset” half way into the five-day war fighting exercise, having suffered significant simulated casualties.

At one point in the battle, the commandos’ “kill board”, an intelligence assessment of the level of damage inflicted upon enemy equipment and units, had a tick against almost every American asset, indicating it had been deemed destroyed or rendered inoperable.

[Guard Dog]

15 hours ago, Raithe said:

Telegraph - Royal Marines force US troops to surrender just days into training exercise

 

 

Dammit there’s never an Andrew Jackson around when you need one!

[kanisatha]

On 11/2/2021 at 7:18 PM, Raithe said:

Telegraph - Royal Marines force US troops to surrender just days into training exercise

 

 

Not that surprised. If the exercise had been about wokeism our guys would've dominated. But this clearly was about warfighting, which is the one thing our troops are not trained in these days.

We will soon be getting our ass handed to us when Xi and Putin coordinate their simultaneous moves into Taiwan and Ukraine respectively. It will be very sad that our rank and file troops will be the ones paying the ultimate price even as our worthless political and military elites will yet again escape with no costs to them.

[Malcador]

16 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Not that surprised. If the exercise had been about wokeism our guys would've dominated. But this clearly was about warfighting, which is the one thing our troops are not trained in these days.

You're serious ?

In any event, seems the Royal Marines were attached to another formation that included US troops as well. So. https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/royal-marines-victorious-in-fight-against-u-s-marines/

UAE troops as well. Interesting

Edited November 4, 2021 by Malcador

[kanisatha]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

You're serious ?

In any event, seems the Royal Marines were attached to another formation that included US troops as well. So. https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/royal-marines-victorious-in-fight-against-u-s-marines/

UAE troops as well. Interesting

Okay, some exaggeration, as our military does still have fighting capability obviously (it should for the incredible amount of money we spend on it). But in general, yes, I am serious. Our readiness and combat capability are at alarmingly low rates these days, our accidents and screw-ups rates are at alarmingly high levels, and troops themselves are reporting they spend more time on "sensitivity" training than anything else.

[Zoraptor]

I'm not sure I'd take soldiers' complaint about that too seriously. I've heard pretty much exactly the same complaints... from people in the UK military. And New Zealand for that matter, though that's usually submerged by complaints about not having the latest and most expensive kit and only defending 200 km^2 around Waiouru while being stuck out in a volcanic desert- or worse, Palmerston North- for a year.

UAE troops actually have a very good reputation, and not just compared to other Gulf troops. Lots of external training, paid well and mostly come from Fujairah which has no oil rather than the more decadent emirates. That does come with some baggage though, the UAE drawback from Yemen was in part because a large proportion of casualties were coming from one city.

[kanisatha]

19 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

That does come with some baggage though, the UAE drawback from Yemen was in part because a large proportion of casualties were coming from one city.

Plus that the Saudi troops who were supposed to be helping them were completely useless.

[Raithe]

 

[Gfted1]

USS Portland Uses Its Experimental Laser To Fry A Floating Target In The Middle East.

150 kilowatt class! Things are coming along nicely.

[kanisatha]

21 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

USS Portland Uses Its Experimental Laser To Fry A Floating Target In The Middle East.

150 kilowatt class! Things are coming along nicely.

What's priceless is that you can stick this on to any vessel so long as it has the power output to support it.

[Gfted1]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

What's priceless is that you can stick this on to any vessel so long as it has the power output to support it.

I think it needs to get to ~300+ kW to be an effective defense against anti-ship missiles, but I like the progress Im seeing.

[Sarex]

Interesting read

https://warontherocks.com/2019/12/why-russian-military-expenditure-is-much-higher-than-commonly-understood-as-is-chinas/

[ComradeYellow]

2 hours ago, Sarex said:

Interesting read

https://warontherocks.com/2019/12/why-russian-military-expenditure-is-much-higher-than-commonly-understood-as-is-chinas/

You'd be amazed what the determined can procure on a tight budget, as opposed to the U.S. congress who just kinda blow billions on the military budget without any kind of plan.  Just keep printing those bills and tossing them around and it'll all be fine.  Dolla dolla bill y'all.

 

However though, the Russian government itself isn't nearly as strong as some would believe, corruption remains quite rampant and it's population is getting kind of fed up with its lack of concrete results.  They see Stalin as a bad person in their history BUT. AT LEAST. HE GOT THINGS. DONE (How familiar!)

Edited December 26, 2021 by ComradeYellow