Politics and Statesmenship: A Forum Special Report

[Amentep]

start of old thread

end of old thread

 

New thread for all your political trash-talking needs.

[bringingyouthefuture]

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/poll-58-percent-voters-approve-president-trump-s-handling-economy-n992706

 

It is just one poll, but I agree this will be a major deciding factor in 2020, and Trump has a few things up his sleeve to make sure nothing goes too far South ... the first and foremost locking in trade deals in the next 2 years, fingers crossed.  Not sure it was smart of him to balloon the deficit though for where we are at now ...

[smjjames]

Increasing the deficit didn't stop Obama from being re-elected. Still, Trumps re-election, (or any other president in the past for that matter) rides a lot on the economy, which he is well aware of.

 

Anyways, I'm not convinced that his adminstration can handle a downturn well enough not to completely botch it. It's probably going to depend a lot on the cause behind the downturn and how severe it is.

Edited April 11, 2019 by smjjames

[bringingyouthefuture]

I mean as reasons go though:

 

1 - Obama - Great Recession and ACA

2 - Bush #2 - Tax Cuts, 9/11 and Iraq War

3 - Trump - tax cuts (he could potentially argue he boosted economy to shore it up for a better bargaining position on trade - but that seems like a long shot to me)

 

I don't know my point was not sure I would have grown the deficit just for a Tax Cut.  For all the talk why don't they ever cut the budget first then base the tax cuts on what they were able to save at least - I am gonna answer my own question - because that wouldn't sell politically.

[injurai]

While presidents can be responsible for things, often times they are an agent of the zeitgeist. Where the most valuable trait is in with whom they side with. While society is not a zero sum game, it's often far more expedient to try to win it all for yourself in the short term.

[Elerond]

Economy don't actually get boosted when deficits increases, even though it can feel like it, but it is just illusionary, because that boost that you feel in economy will cause in dent in economy in future.

[Gorth]

Who cares about politics anyway, there are more important things in life

 

From the BBC:

 

'The revolution can wait. Football comes first'

The mood in Sudan's capital, Khartoum, was different on Wednesday. Anti-government protesters put up huge screens to watch Barcelona beat Manchester United 1-0 in the Champions League quarter-final first leg.

"The revolution can wait," a journalist tweeted, summing up the mood of the crowd.

[Zoraptor]

One thing that can unite 95% of the planet: ManU losing.

 

Economy don't actually get boosted when deficits increases, even though it can feel like it, but it is just illusionary, because that boost that you feel in economy will cause in dent in economy in future.

 

In the long term sure, when someone gets the balls to actually call in unsustainable US debt- in the full knowledge that the US would likely tell you to FOAD and a demand would likely implode the world economy you rely on. That's the perk of being the world's reserve currency and why the US defends the dollars position as such so aggressively- can't call in the debt without making the debt worthless, can't even increase interest rates to what they should be without damaging the world's economy. China (or anyone else, but practically it near has to be China) refusing to roll over US government debt is the equivalent of nuking the US and the world's economy, and everyone knows it. Everything relies on economic confidence being a virtuous circle, when it starts going vicious it can go vicious and circle spectacularly.

[Gromnir]

is serious misunderstanding 'bout US debt, the vast majority o' which is owned by US entities.  china holding US debt is not something they can collect 'pon 'less they wanna lose big money. china, like many other foreign nations, invests heavily in t-bills, notes and bonds 'cause such has good roi and is extreme reliable.  2, 3, 5, 10 and even thirty year investments... along with short-term t-bills.  holder o' the security must retain for period on face or they lose the interest payoff. is not as if major players in US securities like china, japan, brazil and ireland (which may surprise folks) is global loan sharks extending greater amounts o' credit to a deadbeat who can barely afford to pay the juice. 

 

is nothing to "call-in."  the debt is in the form o' fixed-term securities and is popular in large part 'cause the roi is guaranteed. is other options for china, but isn't a call-in kinda thing and 'course china and japan, being so dependant on exports to the US, also wanna keep their currencies relative weak compared to the dollar.

 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited April 11, 2019 by Gromnir

[Katphood]

So the IRGC are now officially labled as terrorists: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/trump-irgc-us-iran-terrorism-sanctions-tehran-lebanon-hezbollah-a8862301.html%3famp

 

If war breaks out, I'll head straight for the U.S/Europe as a refugee. Anybody has a place for a guy with two cats?!

[Chilloutman]

So the IRGC are now officially labled as terrorists: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/trump-irgc-us-iran-terrorism-sanctions-tehran-lebanon-hezbollah-a8862301.html%3famp

 

If war breaks out, I'll head straight for the U.S/Europe as a refugee. Anybody has a place for a guy with two cats?!

 

pfff, all same story, why can't you send handsome girls with dog? I would have place for them :/

[ktchong]

A fascinating and humorous introductory video to Evangelicals and the "Religious Right":

 

Edited April 11, 2019 by ktchong

[Zoraptor]

So the IRGC are now officially labled as terrorists: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/trump-irgc-us-iran-terrorism-sanctions-tehran-lebanon-hezbollah-a8862301.html%3famp

 

As a connoisseur of passive aggressiveness I was amused by Iran naming US armed forces as terrorists in reciprocation.

 

is nothing to "call-in."  the debt is in the form o' fixed-term securities and is popular in large part 'cause the roi is guaranteed. is other options for china, but isn't a call-in kinda thing and 'course china and japan, being so dependant on exports to the US, also wanna keep their currencies relative weak compared to the dollar.

 

 

Refusing to roll over debt is the same as calling it in to all practical purposes since the system relies absolutely on Confidence and for constant deficit spending it ultimately relies on new loans to pay off old ones as they come due. Refusing to roll over makes other lenders less likely to lend, and if they do they want more interest on the loans. If a big enough player expresses No Confidence the system breaks. At this point the biggest player who could do that is China, but we're not close to that happening, yet.

 

If you have permanent deficits in the trillion dollar range p/a the loans will dry up eventually even if you are the reserve currency, and when they do principal actually has to be repaid rather than kicked down the road. It's the nuclear option and will be bad for everyone, but permanently increasing debt on that scale is fundamentally unsustainable and basically a pyramid scheme. At some point people realise they won't ever actually get repaid, then the race is on to make sure you're first in line to get what you can.

 

OTOH, if you can pay your loans and interest back from cash reserves you cannot be insolvent by definition. That's why it was so obvious that Russia would not go bankrupt in 2014 despite many 'experts' claiming they would, they could pay every rouble they owed off multiple times without borrowing a rouble more- indeed, they can still do the same in 2019.

[Katphood]

[Blarghagh]

Oh look, violation of international law.

 

"Justice!"

[BruceVC]

Excellent news and long overdue, the next step is to extradite him to the USA so he can hopefully spend a long period of time in a federal prison 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/uk/live-news/julian-assange-arrest-dle-gbr-intl/index.html

[Blarghagh]

Naturally Bruce applauds the violation of international law "for the greater good".

[Malcador]

 

 

His accusations against Mr Assange also included blocking security cameras at the embassy, accessing security files and confronting guards.

 

First and third is somewhat believable.

[injurai]

Naturally Bruce applauds the violation of international law "for the greater good".

 

[BruceVC]

Naturally Bruce applauds the violation of international law "for the greater good".

How is him being arrested for skipping bail for sexual assault charges in Sweden , years later these were dropped,  " breaking international law " ?

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/9519767/Julian-Assanges-backers-lose-200000-bail-money.html

 

He broke the law, not the other way around and now the USA can request extradition. This is not guaranteed he will be extradited as the law needs to be followed if there is a case for this but we can hope it does happen 

 

Also the Ecuadorian president  simply doesnt want Assange in there embassy for repeated violations of his refuge conditions 

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/assange-how-ecuador-finally-got-sick-of-wikileaks-founder-and-ended-his-refuge-at-the-embassy-in-london

Edited April 11, 2019 by BruceVC

[Katphood]

Next stop is probably Edward Snowden but yeah, good luck with that one...

[BruceVC]

Next stop is probably Edward Snowden but yeah, good luck with that one...

Absolutely, this would be another progressive development  but Russia has no interest in respecting any USA extradition request so unfortunately  this is unlikely to happen 

 

But Assange was always the primary instigator of  constant " cyber espionage"  crimes against the USA so this should send an important message that you cannot hide behind the Internet and assume you are untouchable when you break the law 

Edited April 11, 2019 by BruceVC

[Mannock]

Absolutely, this would be another progressive development  but Russia has no interest in respecting any USA extradition request so unfortunately  this is unlikely to happen 

 

But Assange was always the primary instigator of  constant " cyber espionage"  crimes against the USA so this should send an important message that you cannot hide behind the Internet and assume you are untouchable when you break the law

But why should Snowden face the law for "cyber espionage", when the US military murders countless civilian innocents, without ever having to face up to any sort of law?

 

Snowden broke the law, but he did the morally right thing, much like Daniel Ellsberg did for example.

[BruceVC]

 

Absolutely, this would be another progressive development  but Russia has no interest in respecting any USA extradition request so unfortunately  this is unlikely to happen 

 

But Assange was always the primary instigator of  constant " cyber espionage"  crimes against the USA so this should send an important message that you cannot hide behind the Internet and assume you are untouchable when you break the law

But why should Snowden face the law for "cyber espionage", when the US military murders countless civilian innocents, without ever having to face up to any sort of law?

 

Snowden broke the law, but he did the morally right thing, much like Daniel Ellsberg did for example.

 

 

Snowden wont face the same charges as Assange but he definitely broke the  law and betrayed his country, he worked for the NSA and what he did cannot be condoned 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/06/11/in-nsa-leak-case-a-whistle-blower-or-a-criminal/edward-snowden-broke-the-law-and-should-be-prosecuted

 

I have included a paragraph  of the link around  why he needs to face criminal charges 

 

 

" The U.S. government allowed Snowden to achieve a position of trust in an area of vital interest to national security. Anyone who has held a clearance, as I did a few decades ago, gets routinely briefed on the necessity for maintaining security. Cleared personnel are also briefed on ways to blow the whistle on illegality, unethical behavior and other wrongdoing – through company management, through the agency that grants the clearance or, if need be, by going to Congress. None of these paths involve passing sensitive materials to the press " 

Edited April 11, 2019 by BruceVC

[Mannock]

" The U.S. government allowed Snowden to achieve a position of trust in an area of vital interest to national security. Anyone who has held a clearance, as I did a few decades ago, gets routinely briefed on the necessity for maintaining security. Cleared personnel are also briefed on ways to blow the whistle on illegality, unethical behavior and other wrongdoing – through company management, through the agency that grants the clearance or, if need be, by going to Congress. None of these paths involve passing sensitive materials to the press " 

You didn't respond to my point. Snowden could show how innocent civilians got murdered by the US military. They face no charges for that, despite breaking the law. So why should Snowden?