Finally some sales evidence

One thing to keep in mind about those numbers from Ars is that it doesn't include people who have purchased, but haven't played. The article below from 2014 indicates 37% of Steam games purchased are never played. Correlation between gog and Steam sales is more difficult, but there are a few publishers who've released information demonstrating that gog sales are roughly 15% of Steam sales (an example at the link below). Therefore, the numbers from Ars could be quite a bit off - for example, assuming no other sales source, the actual number of copies sold could be around 360k instead of 200k. So I would be careful directly interpreting these results.

 

https://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2456730,00.asp

 

https://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/186940/defenders_quest_by_the_numbers_.php

Yeah, there will always be a market for single player games. Deadfire is obviously more niche than most but there's always gonna be those lone wolf gamers like myself who prefer to just enjoy at their own pace and not have to worry about being online on a certain day/days at a certain time.

I wouldn't necessarily count on Bethesda's future output frankly, given their latest efforts *sigh*.

Yeah, let's ignore direct statements from Todd Howard, the head of BGS, that Fallout 76 is a spin-off and their main titles were, are, and will be focused on singleplayer.

One thing to keep in mind about those numbers from Ars is that it doesn't include people who have purchased, but haven't played. The article below from 2014 indicates 37% of Steam games purchased are never played. Correlation between gog and Steam sales is more difficult, but there are a few publishers who've released information demonstrating that gog sales are roughly 15% of Steam sales (an example at the link below). Therefore, the numbers from Ars could be quite a bit off - for example, assuming no other sales source, the actual number of copies sold could be around 360k instead of 200k. So I would be careful directly interpreting these results.

 

https://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2456730,00.asp

 

https://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/186940/defenders_quest_by_the_numbers_.php

If that 37% figure is true it would probably be because there are alot of free to play games on steam and really cheap games eg around $1-$5.

 

I cant see a whole lot of people spending $50 on deadfire and then just ignoring it

 

I wouldn't necessarily count on Bethesda's future output frankly, given their latest efforts *sigh*.

Yeah, let's ignore direct statements from Todd Howard, the head of BGS, that Fallout 76 is a spin-off and their main titles were, are, and will be focused on singleplayer.

 

 

Indeed, let's instead blindly trust that the company that decides to come out with a multiplayer half a year after their "save player one" campaign isn't going to change it's mind on that. Especially if Fallout 76 turns out to make them a stupid amount of money, for what seems to be comparatively rather less work than they'd have needed for a single player game. They would hardly be the first traditionally single player gaming developer to make that switch. Besides, there is still also a difference between focused on single player and single player only; they might still end up throwing multiplayer elements into it as well, which would require compromises in the game design (eg. VATS and jet can't work as in Fallout 4 if there's potentially more than one player).

 

I'm hardly claiming that they definitely will shift their focus towards multiplayer, but I also wouldn't be too quick to believe they won't just because Todd Howard is saying so now. 

Deadfire's sales numbers since release have actually been pretty similar to those of BG2 and NWN1 in the same time frame. Worth noting.

ah thats ok i found it

 

its on that spreadsheet they provide

 

so 2003000 sales hey

 

its only been out for 2-3 months but still thats low 

 

wonder why not selling so good?

I'ts not hard to see that both this forum and reddit are filled with people disappointed in the game. And Obsidian, instead of holding its ground and focusing on minor changes and bug fixing, keeps overhauling it to try to cater to everyone. Completely randomly, not by releasing big changes with e.g. a DLC or an expansion pack. This is the result, and it's something I've said elsewhere some time ago: games like these are not meant to be balanced for months after the release, because it makes their sales suffer. I'm guessing if actual sales number don't convince them, nothing will.

 

Pillars got through this phase by being something fresh. cRPG genre was a wateland at that point and Pillars 1 filled it, so it sold pretty well despite the developer's approach. However, as you can see, you only get one chance to get away with this kind of design philosophy.

 

All I hope for at this point is that they manage to scrape enough to get POE3 going.

 

And that they finally create an MMO game, where they can go bonkers with all the balance they want!

 

ah thats ok i found it

 

its on that spreadsheet they provide

 

so 2003000 sales hey

 

its only been out for 2-3 months but still thats low 

 

wonder why not selling so good?

I'ts not hard to see that both this forum and reddit are filled with people disappointed in the game. And Obsidian, instead of holding its ground and focusing on minor changes and bug fixing, keeps overhauling it to try to cater to everyone. Completely randomly, not by releasing big changes with e.g. a DLC or an expansion pack. This is the result, and it's something I've said elsewhere some time ago: games like these are not meant to be balanced for months after the release, because it makes their sales suffer. I'm guessing if actual sales number don't convince them, nothing will.

 

Pillars got through this phase by being something fresh. cRPG genre was a wateland at that point and Pillars 1 filled it, so it sold pretty well despite the developer's approach. However, as you can see, you only get one chance to get away with this kind of design philosophy.

 

All I hope for at this point is that they manage to scrape enough to get POE3 going.

 

And that they finally create an MMO game, where they can go bonkers with all the balance they want!

 

 

Maybe I am as thick as Obsidian but I am still not convinced that this is the reason for the underwhelming sale numbers. There are so many possible causes, how are you sure this is the exact reason? And I don't think Obsidian is overhauling their design, maybe they are just trying to bring the game even closer to their original vision while at the same time reacting to the feedback.

If a game screws you over when you play it, how likely are you to recommend it to your friends?

 

Yes, that's like I said. They're trying to cater to everyone all at once and it backfires. Too impatient. Do big changes in DLC, do not force them down the player's throat a month after the release!

 

It is of course not the only reason for worse sales, but a significant one.

 

They released the game at the best possible moment, a few months before the market gets flooded with new, hot releases (this happens pretty much every year before Winter). If they have poor sales during that window, I don't expect them to come back up anytime soon.

Edited July 9, 2018 by Manveru123

Valve is supposedly working on a replacement for Steam Spy, so we'll find out at some point.

 

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2018/07/valve-working-on-more-accurate-replacement-for-steam-spys-sales-data/

Valve supposedly working how to disable any form of sales statistics.

Bought and disabled Steam Spy stats.

See also recent quiet disabling another external tool.

Edited July 9, 2018 by gGeorg

Open Deadfire's Steam store page (link). Scroll to reviews. Click Data Range, click the red bar under 8 may. 

There's your answer. 

I still don't see how Deadfire's sales are "bad". Its looking pretty successful to me. Is this just a symptom of the internet's hyperbole? SOmething is either the best game ever realeased or its complete garbage.

I still don't see how Deadfire's sales are "bad". Its looking pretty successful to me. Is this just a symptom of the internet's hyperbole? SOmething is either the best game ever realeased or its complete garbage.

Pretty much. 

To be honest - I guess I can understand why Deadfire is presumably underperforming. (Although for an medium-sized indie developer 200k sale number is not the end of the world IMO. Still, I think Obsidian was unofficialy banking on a breaktrough in style of DO:S 2. Good luck with that, if that was the case.)

Honest question - what is Deadfire's main selling point? Is it a gripping story, deep companion interaction, innovative gameplay mechanics, open world? Beacuse it definately tries to do all of that - it just doesn't commit. In pretty much every aspect, this game is at best "good enough". And in heavily competitive nostalgia-based RPG market that's just not good enough. The PoE franchise brand is not strong enough to guarantee sales all by itself. And for me Deadfire really doesn't have any aspect of the game that you can point at and say - "this part is amazing/well done". Mechanically/combat-wise there are absolutely no innovations, this heavily-touted ship mechanic gets tedious rather fast, story-wise the game is unfocused and underdeveloped, writing is hit or miss, companion system/romance is superficial and unsatisfying, companions are run-on-the-mill and forgettable (incidentally, I had a kick out of reading a whole bunch of Steam reviews that pretty much went: "After 20 hours, I finally found a cool and memorable companion. Turns out she's a sidekick. Not recommended.", which is a *very* valid criticism IMO.) And "word-of-mouth" is a powerful tool. So, logically, why would the Random Joe with limited income want to buy this game for 45 bucks? Especially the "free-thinker" one that doesn't treat a pre-release reviews as a gospel. The market is already oversaturated with nostalgic RPGs. If I didn't back this game myself for a ridiculous amount of money (out of strange loyalty to Obsidian, also I *really* wanted sea monsters and Ydwin realized ), I sadly probably wouldn't be interested in anything this game has to offer.

Again, I don't know much about marketing strategies, sales, and so on, so don't take this post too seriously. Those are just my random musings/observations based on opinions from me and a bunch of my friends.

Edited July 9, 2018 by aksrasjel

Holy moley, look at the BGEE and BG2EE numbers. That franchise is like a money press that wont stop churning out profit. That's amazing after all these years and unpopular ruleset.

Holy moley, look at the BGEE and BG2EE numbers. That franchise is like a money press that wont stop churning out profit. That's amazing after all these years and unpopular ruleset.

 

I know what you're saying, but given the sales, the ruleset is sort of by definition not unpopular.

I know what you're saying, but given the sales, the ruleset is sort of by definition not unpopular.

 

Maybe like others have postulated, they are a success despite the ruleset? I mean, just uttering the word THAC0 seems to confuse people who are unfamiliar with the older systems. Actually, I haven't played the EE's, do they even still use THAC0?

Dude, THAC0 is great. Don't touch my THAC0.

 

EDIT: Yup, the EEs still use THAC0. Then again, everyone should use THAC0 for everything. I use THAC0 to tie my shoelaces, FFS.

 

 

 

Yeah, yeah, I really like AD&D

Edited July 9, 2018 by AndreaColombo

I'll be more interested to see what Deadfire's total sales are a half to full year after all DLC is out, the console / switch versions are out.

Its interesting to me about how I "imprinted" on the ruleset that I came up on. To me, D&D 2E/2.5E is perfectly clear and understandable, while wrt PoE, Im 10 pounds of stupid in a 5 pound bag. I just cant get it!

 

I know what you're saying, but given the sales, the ruleset is sort of by definition not unpopular.

Maybe like others have postulated, they are a success despite the ruleset? I mean, just uttering the word THAC0 seems to confuse people who are unfamiliar with the older systems. Actually, I haven't played the EE's, do they even still use THAC0?

What is THAC0?

To Hit Armor Class 0 (zero)

 

It was used to determine hit / miss, back in the day.

To Hit Armor Class 0 (zero)

 

It was used to determine hit / miss, back in the day.

Oh weird! So the chance to hit is subtracted by the armor class? That seems so backward to my brain.

 

Thank you for explanation!

Its interesting to me about how I "imprinted" on the ruleset that I came up on. To me, D&D 2E/2.5E is perfectly clear and understandable, while wrt PoE, Im 10 pounds of stupid in a 5 pound bag. I just cant get it!

 

Coming this fall,

 

Are You Smarter Than A 5E'er?!

 

To Hit Armor Class 0 (zero)

 

It was used to determine hit / miss, back in the day.

Oh weird! So the chance to hit is subtracted by the armor class? That seems so backward to my brain.

 

Thank you for explanation!

 

Not quite. It's basically d20 + target's AC vs. attacker's THAC0. You have a number you need to roll in order to hit, and your d20 is adjusted by the difference between your target's AC and 0. What makes it really bad is that AC starts at 10 and goes down - the whole system would be a lot more straightforward if AC started at 0.

 

It's one of the most hated features of the older editions, in part because it would be so easy to convert into the more intuitive "d20 + attacker's offense vs. target's defense" system that would be used later on. To understand why it exists at all, you have to bear in mind that D&D started with miniatures wargaming. In that milieu, THAC0 was something you were looking up on a table, which ... is still super cumbersome, but until very recently being super cumbersome was miniatures wargaming's whole thing.