Jump to content

Welcome to Obsidian Forum Community
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!
Photo

Finally some sales evidence


  • Please log in to reply
455 replies to this topic

#41
Tagaziel

Tagaziel

    (6) Magician

  • Members
  • 744 posts
  • Location:Pseudo-state of Poland
  • Pillars of Eternity Backer
  • Kickstarter Backer
  • Deadfire Silver Backer
  • Fig Backer

I imagine this will mean that even small-to-medium sized RPG developers (Obsidian, inXile, etc.) will now move to multiplayer games and abandon creating single player only games.


What makes you think that? There's precisely zero reason for either to abandon single-player games.
  • Suen, rjshae, Tick and 4 others like this

#42
SonicMage117

SonicMage117

    Arch-Mage

  • Members
  • 3237 posts
  • Location:Texas, United States
  • Deadfire Backer
  • Fig Backer
I said it before and I'll say it again, being in the top-sellers means nothing when no other big name games came out during the window that was even in the top sellers.

One could argue that since it was on sale during the Summer Sale (not too long after release) that sales were poor.

You're literally better off gauging Steam sales by looking at the most common achievements.
  • Tick likes this

#43
anameforobsidian

anameforobsidian

    (8) Warlock

  • Members
  • 1175 posts
  • Pillars of Eternity Backer
  • Kickstarter Backer
  • Deadfire Backer
  • Fig Backer

Ninjad by a lot.  I should read.


Edited by anameforobsidian, 08 July 2018 - 08:04 AM.

  • Tick likes this

#44
anameforobsidian

anameforobsidian

    (8) Warlock

  • Members
  • 1175 posts
  • Pillars of Eternity Backer
  • Kickstarter Backer
  • Deadfire Backer
  • Fig Backer

Since Deadfire hasn't had a wide range of sales it's even easier to see how much it made. 171k people bought it new or barely discounted on steam.  Steam takes it's 30%.  So in revenue it got at least ($42.5*171k*.7) - (whatever they paid to critical role).  So that's $5m in revenue not counting critical role or taxes.  If no copies were bought during the sale, that goes up to $6M.  You can add that to $4.4m from Fig.


Edited by anameforobsidian, 08 July 2018 - 08:02 AM.


#45
kanisatha

kanisatha

    (4) Theurgist

  • Members
  • 349 posts
  • Location:Massachusetts
  • Pillars of Eternity Backer
  • Kickstarter Backer
  • Deadfire Backer
  • Fig Backer
  • Black Isle Bastard!

 

I imagine this will mean that even small-to-medium sized RPG developers (Obsidian, inXile, etc.) will now move to multiplayer games and abandon creating single player only games.


What makes you think that? There's precisely zero reason for either to abandon single-player games.

Except for the "not making enough money from it" reason. If you do a quick Google search you'll come across quite a number of articles from the past year or so with direct quotes from game developer company executives saying there's not enough money to be made from single player games anymore. inXile itself has said (in a recent Brian Fargo interview) that their next new game (after Wasteland 3) will be multiplayer (and consoles) focused.


  • Tick likes this

#46
Michael_Galt

Michael_Galt

    (4) Theurgist

  • Members
  • 307 posts
  • Location:Texas
  • Pillars of Eternity Silver Backer
  • Kickstarter Backer

 

 

I imagine this will mean that even small-to-medium sized RPG developers (Obsidian, inXile, etc.) will now move to multiplayer games and abandon creating single player only games.


What makes you think that? There's precisely zero reason for either to abandon single-player games.

Except for the "not making enough money from it" reason. If you do a quick Google search you'll come across quite a number of articles from the past year or so with direct quotes from game developer company executives saying there's not enough money to be made from single player games anymore. inXile itself has said (in a recent Brian Fargo interview) that their next new game (after Wasteland 3) will be multiplayer (and consoles) focused.

 

 

Dislike.  I mean, I hardly play videogames anymore, since I only play cRPGs... but, sounds like Cyberpunk 2077 and Wasteland 3 might be some of the last games I play (admittedly, I think that will be to "go out on a high note").  Hopefully Obsidian doesn't cave to that pressure, and can still be economically viable doing great single player cRPGs.


  • Tick likes this

#47
Tagaziel

Tagaziel

    (6) Magician

  • Members
  • 744 posts
  • Location:Pseudo-state of Poland
  • Pillars of Eternity Backer
  • Kickstarter Backer
  • Deadfire Silver Backer
  • Fig Backer

Except for the "not making enough money from it" reason. If you do a quick Google search you'll come across quite a number of articles from the past year or so with direct quotes from game developer company executives saying there's not enough money to be made from single player games anymore. inXile itself has said (in a recent Brian Fargo interview) that their next new game (after Wasteland 3) will be multiplayer (and consoles) focused.


They've been saying that since the late nineties and yet we still have singleplayer games. Hell, Witcher, PoE1, Wasteland 2, Fallout 4 (the ENTIRE Bethesda catalogue now and in the future*), HBS' catalogue (Battletech has an MP component, but it doesn't take priority over the robust main campaign), Total War series, Paradox games... That claim doesn't survive confrontation with reality.

It's understandable that games that don't require you to dive into deep lore and riveting stories are more popular than those that do. Some games focus on the gameplay experience and that's perfectly fine. They have much bigger audiences specifically because they're easy to pick up, enjoy, and then drop when you need to do something else. This was the case for, what, two decades now?

Despite that we still get quality SP games. In the same way that burger joints did not wipe out regular restaurants, MP won't wipe out SP.
  • rjshae, Aotrs Commander, Tick and 3 others like this

#48
Loren Tyr

Loren Tyr

    (7) Enchanter

  • Members
  • 858 posts

I wouldn't necessarily count on Bethesda's future output frankly, given their latest efforts *sigh*. But indeed Fallout 4 is a clear example that there's plenty of interest in single player games. And in general, the whole notion that single player games will die out because there would be no money in it seems deeply implausible. I can certainly see how (specific types of) multiplayer game are probably much easier to make in many respects, and have the whole microtransaction / subscription / etc. array of post-purchase monetization options going for them.

 

That can certainly be very tempting for many developers. But the more that get tempted to do that, the less profitable that is likely to become (and/or the less reliable it will be as an investment), because there will be more games and developers competing for the same, ultimately limited, pool of players (and their limited time and money to sink into gaming). While at the same time, it would result in increasingly less competition in the single player market, in turn making that a more profitable and reliable investment. Obviously there is all sorts of developments in gaming trends over time, and an ebb and flow of popularity of different kinds of game. But for a particular genre to just die out, especially something as general as "single-player", for purely economic reasons alone I just can't see that happening. I mean, even the isometric cRPG genre once thought thoroughly dead and buried has been resurrected, and that is far more niche than 'single player'. 


  • wih likes this

#49
no1fanboy

no1fanboy

    (4) Theurgist

  • Members
  • 264 posts

I said it before and I'll say it again, being in the top-sellers means nothing when no other big name games came out during the window that was even in the top sellers.

One could argue that since it was on sale during the Summer Sale (not too long after release) that sales were poor.

You're literally better off gauging Steam sales by looking at the most common achievements.

Kingdom come deliverance made platinum and it was released at the same time



#50
Boeroer

Boeroer

    Arch-Mage

  • Members
  • 14862 posts
  • Location:Bucharest, Romania
  • Lords of the Eastern Reach Backer
  • Deadfire Backer
  • Fig Backer
  • Black Isle Bastard!
There is a market for single player games. If it's smaller than the market for multiplayer games then perhaps produce less expensive single player games, eh? ;)
  • Tick, Daled, Sanjid099 and 2 others like this

#51
mychal26

mychal26

    (2) Evoker

  • Members
  • 82 posts
  • Pillars of Eternity Silver Backer
  • Kickstarter Backer
  • Deadfire Backer
  • Fig Backer

One thing to keep in mind about those numbers from Ars is that it doesn't include people who have purchased, but haven't played. The article below from 2014 indicates 37% of Steam games purchased are never played. Correlation between gog and Steam sales is more difficult, but there are a few publishers who've released information demonstrating that gog sales are roughly 15% of Steam sales (an example at the link below). Therefore, the numbers from Ars could be quite a bit off - for example, assuming no other sales source, the actual number of copies sold could be around 360k instead of 200k. So I would be careful directly interpreting these results.

 

https://www.pcmag.co...,2456730,00.asp

 

https://www.gamasutr...he_numbers_.php


  • Tick, illathid and ronaldo like this

#52
SonicMage117

SonicMage117

    Arch-Mage

  • Members
  • 3237 posts
  • Location:Texas, United States
  • Deadfire Backer
  • Fig Backer
Yeah, there will always be a market for single player games. Deadfire is obviously more niche than most but there's always gonna be those lone wolf gamers like myself who prefer to just enjoy at their own pace and not have to worry about being online on a certain day/days at a certain time.
  • Aotrs Commander, Tick, ronaldo and 1 other like this

#53
Tagaziel

Tagaziel

    (6) Magician

  • Members
  • 744 posts
  • Location:Pseudo-state of Poland
  • Pillars of Eternity Backer
  • Kickstarter Backer
  • Deadfire Silver Backer
  • Fig Backer

I wouldn't necessarily count on Bethesda's future output frankly, given their latest efforts *sigh*.

Yeah, let's ignore direct statements from Todd Howard, the head of BGS, that Fallout 76 is a spin-off and their main titles were, are, and will be focused on singleplayer.



#54
no1fanboy

no1fanboy

    (4) Theurgist

  • Members
  • 264 posts

One thing to keep in mind about those numbers from Ars is that it doesn't include people who have purchased, but haven't played. The article below from 2014 indicates 37% of Steam games purchased are never played. Correlation between gog and Steam sales is more difficult, but there are a few publishers who've released information demonstrating that gog sales are roughly 15% of Steam sales (an example at the link below). Therefore, the numbers from Ars could be quite a bit off - for example, assuming no other sales source, the actual number of copies sold could be around 360k instead of 200k. So I would be careful directly interpreting these results.
 
https://www.pcmag.co...,2456730,00.asp
 
https://www.gamasutr...he_numbers_.php


If that 37% figure is true it would probably be because there are alot of free to play games on steam and really cheap games eg around $1-$5.

I cant see a whole lot of people spending $50 on deadfire and then just ignoring it

#55
Loren Tyr

Loren Tyr

    (7) Enchanter

  • Members
  • 858 posts

 

I wouldn't necessarily count on Bethesda's future output frankly, given their latest efforts *sigh*.

Yeah, let's ignore direct statements from Todd Howard, the head of BGS, that Fallout 76 is a spin-off and their main titles were, are, and will be focused on singleplayer.

 

 

Indeed, let's instead blindly trust that the company that decides to come out with a multiplayer half a year after their "save player one" campaign isn't going to change it's mind on that. Especially if Fallout 76 turns out to make them a stupid amount of money, for what seems to be comparatively rather less work than they'd have needed for a single player game. They would hardly be the first traditionally single player gaming developer to make that switch. Besides, there is still also a difference between focused on single player and single player only; they might still end up throwing multiplayer elements into it as well, which would require compromises in the game design (eg. VATS and jet can't work as in Fallout 4 if there's potentially more than one player).

 

I'm hardly claiming that they definitely will shift their focus towards multiplayer, but I also wouldn't be too quick to believe they won't just because Todd Howard is saying so now. 



#56
gkathellar

gkathellar

    Arch-Mage

  • Members
  • 2007 posts
  • Location:Region of Erroneous Complaint
  • Pillars of Eternity Silver Backer
  • Kickstarter Backer
  • Deadfire Backer
  • Fig Backer

Deadfire's sales numbers since release have actually been pretty similar to those of BG2 and NWN1 in the same time frame. Worth noting.


  • Tick, illathid, InsaneCommander and 2 others like this

#57
Manveru123

Manveru123

    (7) Enchanter

  • Members
  • 841 posts

ah thats ok i found it
 

its on that spreadsheet they provide

 

so 2003000 sales hey

 

its only been out for 2-3 months but still thats low 

 

wonder why not selling so good?

I'ts not hard to see that both this forum and reddit are filled with people disappointed in the game. And Obsidian, instead of holding its ground and focusing on minor changes and bug fixing, keeps overhauling it to try to cater to everyone. Completely randomly, not by releasing big changes with e.g. a DLC or an expansion pack. This is the result, and it's something I've said elsewhere some time ago: games like these are not meant to be balanced for months after the release, because it makes their sales suffer. I'm guessing if actual sales number don't convince them, nothing will.

 

Pillars got through this phase by being something fresh. cRPG genre was a wateland at that point and Pillars 1 filled it, so it sold pretty well despite the developer's approach. However, as you can see, you only get one chance to get away with this kind of design philosophy.

 

All I hope for at this point is that they manage to scrape enough to get POE3 going.

 

And that they finally create an MMO game, where they can go bonkers with all the balance they want!



#58
wih

wih

    (4) Theurgist

  • Members
  • 205 posts
  • Deadfire Backer
  • Fig Backer

 

ah thats ok i found it
 

its on that spreadsheet they provide

 

so 2003000 sales hey

 

its only been out for 2-3 months but still thats low 

 

wonder why not selling so good?

I'ts not hard to see that both this forum and reddit are filled with people disappointed in the game. And Obsidian, instead of holding its ground and focusing on minor changes and bug fixing, keeps overhauling it to try to cater to everyone. Completely randomly, not by releasing big changes with e.g. a DLC or an expansion pack. This is the result, and it's something I've said elsewhere some time ago: games like these are not meant to be balanced for months after the release, because it makes their sales suffer. I'm guessing if actual sales number don't convince them, nothing will.

 

Pillars got through this phase by being something fresh. cRPG genre was a wateland at that point and Pillars 1 filled it, so it sold pretty well despite the developer's approach. However, as you can see, you only get one chance to get away with this kind of design philosophy.

 

All I hope for at this point is that they manage to scrape enough to get POE3 going.

 

And that they finally create an MMO game, where they can go bonkers with all the balance they want!

 

 

Maybe I am as thick as Obsidian but I am still not convinced that this is the reason for the underwhelming sale numbers. There are so many possible causes, how are you sure this is the exact reason? And I don't think Obsidian is overhauling their design, maybe they are just trying to bring the game even closer to their original vision while at the same time reacting to the feedback.


  • peko, Loren Tyr, Sanjid099 and 1 other like this

#59
Manveru123

Manveru123

    (7) Enchanter

  • Members
  • 841 posts

If a game screws you over when you play it, how likely are you to recommend it to your friends?

 

Yes, that's like I said. They're trying to cater to everyone all at once and it backfires. Too impatient. Do big changes in DLC, do not force them down the player's throat a month after the release!

 

It is of course not the only reason for worse sales, but a significant one.

 

They released the game at the best possible moment, a few months before the market gets flooded with new, hot releases (this happens pretty much every year before Winter). If they have poor sales during that window, I don't expect them to come back up anytime soon.


Edited by Manveru123, 09 July 2018 - 05:43 AM.


#60
gGeorg

gGeorg

    (2) Evoker

  • Members
  • 72 posts

Valve is supposedly working on a replacement for Steam Spy, so we'll find out at some point.

 

https://arstechnica....pys-sales-data/

Valve supposedly working how to disable any form of sales statistics.

Bought and disabled Steam Spy stats.

See also recent quiet disabling another external tool.


Edited by gGeorg, 09 July 2018 - 06:43 AM.





0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users