Ukraine Conflict - "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare"

[Malcador]

2 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Or maybe there wont be corruption or much less, lets be positive Malc 

Yes, avarice will evaporate before the glorious light of the dawn of democracy.

[Elerond]

16 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

I assume they mean the end-user price?
The current market price has over 250% YoY increase.

4.9140 * 3.5 = 17.199 (250% increase means 3.5 times higher price)

Current price (7.9469 at moment I took screen shot) has seen ~62% increase to last year (~1.62 times higher) or last year prices was ~38%  lower than current price (multiplier ~0.62) when price was 4.9140

But as above graphic shows price has been quite volatile so yoy difference changes quite lot from day to day

[pmp10]

Ah I see the problem.
*insert obligatory world-doesn't-revolve-around-US joke 

Us poor continentals trade our gas in the Netherlands:

[Sarex]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

I am still unsure of what Russia's victory condition is.

At this point, I think the ending of the conflict with the territory they gained, would be the bare minimum.

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

If Ukraine wins, I don't think they'll be rebuilding on their own, should get a lot of money pouring in.  Granted, great opportunity for corruption then.

That is very optimistic if you, what makes you think that? Even now people are starting to be against sending anymore financial support for this war. All it takes is for the world economy to start spiraling downwards (and it has already started on that path) and they would lose even the support they are getting now. Besides I can't think of any example of a country getting money poured in to it after a war.

[Malcador]

1 minute ago, Sarex said:

That is very optimistic if you, what makes you think that? Even now people are starting to be against sending anymore financial support for this war. All it takes is for the world economy to start spiraling downwards (and it has already started on that path) and they would lose even the support they are getting now. Besides I can't think of any example of a country getting money poured in to it after a war.

Well a bit optimistic yes, but can see the US sticking with them just as part of the game versus Russia.  That and well the money going in isn't going to be aid, it's going to be "aid".

[ShadySands]

I'm inclined to agree with Malc. I don't think it's optimistic though but rather a pretty easy way to launder money and make them a vassal state.

[Elerond]

Sending arms to aid Ukraine cause quite little economical stress for countries, as they are sending their old arsenal, which has already been stored to be disposed and countries regardless of what happens will spent billions and billions euros/dollars to acquire new armaments. Meaning that every year there are new stuff that would go to dispose that could be send to Ukraine.

Most of the stuff that so far has been send to Ukraine has been 50-20 years old.

[Malcador]

14 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Sending arms to aid Ukraine cause quite little economical stress for countries, as they are sending their old arsenal, which has already been stored to be disposed and countries regardless of what happens will spent billions and billions euros/dollars to acquire new armaments. Meaning that every year there are new stuff that would go to dispose that could be send to Ukraine.

Most of the stuff that so far has been send to Ukraine has been 50-20 years old.

Talking about aid to rebuild, not weapons, though.

[Sarex]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Well a bit optimistic yes, but can see the US sticking with them just as part of the game versus Russia.  That and well the money going in isn't going to be aid, it's going to be "aid".

Ok, but if Ukraine wins then one would assume the total collapse of the Russian federation and as such there is no more versus Russia. Again if you are saying "aid", that to me just sounds as people are going to be on their own.

45 minutes ago, ShadySands said:

I'm inclined to agree with Malc. I don't think it's optimistic though but rather a pretty easy way to launder money and make them a vassal state.

Again, what you guys are saying doesn't sound like much help to the regular folks.

I don't mean this as an insult, so please don't take it as such, but I think you guys are coming from a place of ignorance. I will give you an example that I think is pretty similar to what is happening in Ukraine. Kosovo is a definition of a vassal state, they "fought" against Serbia and "won", they also worship the ground the US walks on (Clinton has a statue there). Nowadays the standard of living is probably worse then when Kosovo and Metohija was under Serbian administration. They get no help to improve their standard of living, the only help they get is military and even that is pitiful. EDIT: They are also such a small territory, that giving them help would be such a small effort. It would also help bring the Serbian populace in to the fold, but they don't care.

I can think of a few more examples, but they don't exactly translate well. Point being that I know of a lot of vassal states (to varying degrees) and I am not impressed with the rewards they got.

27 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Sending arms to aid Ukraine cause quite little economical stress for countries, as they are sending their old arsenal, which has already been stored to be disposed and countries regardless of what happens will spent billions and billions euros/dollars to acquire new armaments. Meaning that every year there are new stuff that would go to dispose that could be send to Ukraine.

Most of the stuff that so far has been send to Ukraine has been 50-20 years old.

Do you think the regular citizen who reads the news and sees "10 Billion package of aid on it's way to Ukraine" is going to make that connection when the lights start flickering?

  

11 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Talking about aid to rebuild, not weapons, though.

He is addressing my comment regarding current help being stopped. I think

Edited September 8, 2022 by Sarex

[rjshae]

13 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Does Ukraine have proper rasputitsa in the fall? I really don't know. There are areas where it happens both in the spring and in the fall, but I am not sure about Ukraine. Of course, it is much more common in the spring.

The return of 'rasputitsa' and what it means for Russia's war in Ukraine

Quote

 

“Right now, the Russians and Ukrainians are likely competing for territory in the belief that any ground they take before the end of summer will be safe from recapture throughout the winter as the war bogs down further,” the Janes analyst said.

“Once autumn arrives, life for infantry will get harder, last-mile resupply will become more difficult in the more rural fronts and artillery will find it harder to move around to employ ‘shoot and scoot’ tactics. This will make the use of artillery more dangerous for both sides.”

 

 

[Elerond]

14 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Talking about aid to rebuild, not weapons, though.

Ukraine needs to first win, before that there will not be much of talk about it

[Malcador]

15 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Ok, but if Ukraine wins then one would assume the total collapse of the Russian federation and as such there is no more versus Russia. Again if you are saying "aid", that to me just sounds as people are going to be on their own.

Well not sure Ukraine's win condition is that, hah. Or at least I hope not - Yugoslavia's dissolution was fun and all but the RF's hypothetical one is going be fun, as well...but with nukes around.   I can see their condition as retaking land - maybe not Crimea - but at least everything before this year.  

Definitely not the situation like you'll see a lot of people speaking of, a Marshall plan type situation where the forces of the Light Western countries rebuild Ukraine to glory, etc.

3 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Ukraine needs to first win, before that there will not be much of talk about it

Yah, as Sarex noted, I mistook you.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Malcador

[Elerond]

13 minutes ago, Sarex said:

 

Do you think the regular citizen who reads the news and sees "10 Billion package of aid on it's way to Ukraine" is going to make that connection when the lights start flickering?

 

It depends mostly how they feel about governing party.

If they support opposition parties they will see anything that government does as bad and if their party comes in power same thing will be good. Same goes to people who support governing party/ies.

Most of the people don't really have time to understand budget so their feeling come mostly from politicians and political commentators that support their party.

[ShadySands]

21 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Again, what you guys are saying doesn't sound like much help to the regular folks.

It's not really meant to. See below.

21 minutes ago, Sarex said:

I don't mean this as an insult, so please don't take it as such. But I think you guys are coming from a place of ignorance.

No offense taken. Also basing this somewhat on experience with Iraq and Afghanistan where we threw so much money at lucrative contracts that made a lot of people a lot of money but didn't amount to much in the end. I also think the fact that Ukraine is white and Christian and a democracy will help them more than it did those other countries. I can't speak to Kosovo so I'll defer to you there.

Of course, I'm super pessimistic about all this stuff but I do think Ukraine will be better off if they "win" but I don't know what a Ukrainian victory would look like or if it's even possible. I think it's unlikely they push Russia out of Ukraine entirely and even if they get close to completely turning the tide then I'm afraid of what Russia would do to prevent such a humiliating defeat.

Edited September 8, 2022 by ShadySands

[Sarex]

33 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Well not sure Ukraine's win condition is that, hah. Or at least I hope not - Yugoslavia's dissolution was fun and all but the RF's hypothetical one is going be fun, as well...but with nukes around.   I can see their condition as retaking land - maybe not Crimea - but at least everything before this year.  

Definitely not the situation like you'll see a lot of people speaking of, a Marshall plan type situation where the forces of the Light Western countries rebuild Ukraine to glory, etc.

In that scenario I think they will become a NATO country (not even part of the EU) and will get a few NATO bases on the east front.

28 minutes ago, ShadySands said:

No offense taken. Also basing this somewhat on experience with Iraq and Afghanistan where we threw so much money at lucrative contracts that made a lot of people a lot of money but didn't amount to much in the end. I also think the fact that Ukraine is white and Christian and a democracy will help them more than it did those other countries. I can't speak to Kosovo so I'll defer to you there.

Oh I 100% agree that will happen, I even said as much.

4 hours ago, Sarex said:

but they will have ready jobs to extract gas and any other natural resource they can provide.

I just do not know of how much help that will be for them.

28 minutes ago, ShadySands said:

Of course, I'm super pessimistic about all this stuff but I do think Ukraine will be better off if they "win" but I don't know what a Ukrainian victory would look like or if it's even possible.

In the practical sense I don't think so, they will just exchange the boot for a leash. I mean yeah, the doors of capitalism and democracy will be opened to them, but I very much doubt that their corruption and mentality is going to change. (See Bulgaria and Croatia)

One big question in case of an Ukrainian victory is what is going to happen to the Russian populace. I image it's going to be another ethnic cleansing like it happened in Croatia with the Serbian population, only that it will spill over to the surrounding states. Also what would happen to Kaliningrad.

31 minutes ago, Elerond said:

It depends mostly how they feel about governing party.

If they support opposition parties they will see anything that government does as bad and if their party comes in power same thing will be good. Same goes to people who support governing party/ies.

Most of the people don't really have time to understand budget so their feeling come mostly from politicians and political commentators that support their party.

When it starts affecting their everyday lives, they will not care about political parties, only about the solution. People in the west are too used to comfort.

 

@Elerond https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-08/most-accurate-us-artillery-shell-is-quietly-added-to-ukraine-aid To your point regarding only sending old weapons.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Sarex

[Chilloutman]

and so it begins:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/st-petersburg-officials-demand-vladimir-putin-be-tried-for-treason-in-letter

[Elerond]

21 minutes ago, Sarex said:

When it starts affecting their everyday lives, they will not care about political parties, only about the solution. People in the west are too used to comfort.

 

When there was depression in Finland in 1990 and hundreds of thousands people lots their jobs, thousand companies went in bankrupt and thousands people committed suicide because they lost all hope. You would think that people would have seek change in leadership, but people voted in power same people that lead Finland to depression.

[Mamoulian War]

50 minutes ago, ShadySands said:

It's not really meant to. See below.

No offense taken. Also basing this somewhat on experience with Iraq and Afghanistan where we threw so much money at lucrative contracts that made a lot of people a lot of money but didn't amount to much in the end. I also think the fact that Ukraine is white and Christian and a democracy will help them more than it did those other countries. I can't speak to Kosovo so I'll defer to you there.

Of course, I'm super pessimistic about all this stuff but I do think Ukraine will be better off if they "win" but I don't know what a Ukrainian victory would look like or if it's even possible. I think it's unlikely they push Russia out of Ukraine entirely and even if they get close to completely turning the tide then I'm afraid of what Russia would do to prevent such a humiliating defeat.

Chilloutman already linked the article, which I found few minutes ago. There is still chance, although miniscule, that the Ukraine would not need to push them out at all. We’ll probably see very soon, if this gains any traction, or there will be a big tea party in St. Petersburg…

3 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

and so it begins:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/st-petersburg-officials-demand-vladimir-putin-be-tried-for-treason-in-letter

 

[Mamoulian War]

31 minutes ago, Sarex said:

One big question in case of an Ukrainian victory is what is going to happen to the Russian populace. I image it's going to be another ethnic cleansing like it happened in Croatia with the Serbian population, only that it will spill over to the surrounding states. Also what would happen to Kaliningrad.

I see a big difference between situation in Yugoslavia and Ukraine. Russia has been most of the time killing civilians in a cities with dominant Russian population, which was not the case for Serbia. Mariupol and Kharkiv being a prime examples of that. Then you have all of the reports, how Russians and especially Wagnerites recruited in Russian prisons are behaving towards civilians in occupied cities. A lot of ethnic Russians are because of that hating on Putin’sRussia, and are fighting on the side of Ukraine against Russia, or are just rooting for Ukraine to win. All of that just because they have experienced the “Russian World” firsthand.

The Ukrainian boy, which we have “addopted” with my wife is from this cathegory, he was Russian speaking boy, from Russian speaking family from Kiyv. After he spent with his family a week in underground shelter and emigrated with his mother (which is already back in Kiyv), he does not want to have anything with Russia anymore.

The most interesting thing is, that same is happening in Kazakhstan. Most of the Russian speaking Kazakhs have started to learn Kazakh language en masse after February 24th, so they can distance from Putin’s Russia as far as possible, and hope that this will help them to not end up “liberated” in the future.

[kanisatha]

On 9/7/2022 at 12:41 AM, xzar_monty said:

there are so many variables and unknowns that it's fair to ask whether psychology is a science at all.

This is the fundamental problem with all social and behavioral sciences, and I have begun to question the science of social/behavioral research. And I say this as a social/behavioral scientist myself.

[Zoraptor]

3 hours ago, Elerond said:

Sending arms to aid Ukraine cause quite little economical stress for countries, as they are sending their old arsenal, which has already been stored to be disposed and countries regardless of what happens will spent billions and billions euros/dollars to acquire new armaments. Meaning that every year there are new stuff that would go to dispose that could be send to Ukraine.

There are already other costs than just those of arms though.

The British energy subsidy scheme Truss announced today has costs 'up to £150bn', which is a cool 6% of the UK's GDP and +6% onto debt to GDP- and that's assuming there's no recession and the denominator doesn't reduce. That's... around £2300 cost, per person. Even if kept to the more conservative (heh) estimate of £100bn that was made last week it's still ~1500 quid per person.

Of course some of that isn't related to events in Ukraine and would have happened anyway, and it's being put on the metaphorical credit card so the bill won't come due any time soon and can be easily ignored (at least, up to a point); but it's also due to far- far- higher price appreciation than the UK's already high 10% general inflation rate, and does have to be repaid sometime.

[kanisatha]

On 9/7/2022 at 4:02 AM, BruceVC said:

My isssue with ZH is how its consistently wrong with its predictions, they predicted oil price would get to  $140 and how the US and EU economies would have collapsed by now

And all they do is look at known issues, like the energy price and global inflation, and use that to justify there own ideological views and biases

Sure. And I agree. Not a fan of ZH myself (hadn't even ever heard of them until this thread). My point was entirely about Wikipedia's complete lack of credibility in talking about anyone else's ideology.

[Agiel]

Perhaps one of the biggest surprises of the conflict was the use of AGM-88 HARMs by Ukrainian MiG-29s, more specifically was how those MiG-29s were re-engineered so quickly to be able to "talk" to the missile and employ them, something that stumped a great many serious defence watchers. This video provides perhaps the most plausible explanation of how this was done:

 

[Lexx]

3 hours ago, Chilloutman said:

and so it begins:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/st-petersburg-officials-demand-vladimir-putin-be-tried-for-treason-in-letter

I was told those are just some generic putin aproved opposition politicians who's words carry no weight.

[Mamoulian War]

7 hours ago, Lexx said:

I was told those are just some generic putin aproved opposition politicians who's words carry no weight.

Since the start of “covert” mobilization in St. Petersburg, the relationship between Kremlin and local municipiality spiraled a lot downwards. Putin had some not so nice words against the mayor, for “undermining” the recruitment efforts few weeks ago.