Politics Thread: Silicon Valley Edition

[smjjames]

 

Birth rates and populations can decline century and then have sudden change of course and start rapidly increase for next century and then go back to decline and so on.

Births could start to massively increase but nothing indicates that they will.

Historically fertility rates that have fallen below replacement level are almost never coming back to that point.

 

Well, the massive baby boom is skewing the number a little as that chunk of the population is dying off and the growth isn't as fast as it used to be in developed countries.

 

As Elerond said, that population boom that we had over the past 200 years was unusual in historical terms and things will get to a point where things are unsustainable for that amount of population.

Edited December 29, 2017 by smjjames

[Zoraptor]

 

Population equilibrium is not constant..

 

 

A genuine population equilibrium is by definition a little c constant though- not in the same sense as some of the physics big C Constants of course, but it does mean that the population stays within a fairly narrow band and does not fluctuate significantly in the medium term, and barring significant outside interference into the system.

 

All the rest of the stuff is correct, but what it means is that we cannot readily apply terms like 'population equilibrium' to humans except in an abstract form. For most biological systems you could actually use it as a practical term as well but, as noted, humans' ability to alter the environment and make rational (or not) decisions as opposed to instinctual ones makes us a special case. We obviously can't ignore the rules permanently though, and that biologically speaking leads to one inevitable result: a population crash.

 

It's actually one of the more obvious logical fallacies when you have governments talking about both reducing pollution, human footprint and the like and wanting to keep permanent economic and population growth going. At some point you have to decide to stop population growth, and at that point a lot of the 'natural' economic growth from things such as house building and house price inflation goes as well.

[smjjames]

Well, I meant equilibrium as in reasonably stable, not increasing or decreasing at a rapid pace.

 

You also have the shift from larger families (which were neccesary due to survival rates) to smaller families, which definetly changes the population dynamics over time.

[smjjames]

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/12/30/berlin-set-women-safe-spaces-new-years-eve/

 

Funny. There is already a safe space for women near Berlin. It's called Poland.

 

Saw that one on the BBC site too actually.

 

Also sounds like they could benefit from some fireworks regulations because (according to the brietbart article) last year firefighters had to put out 400 fires caused by fireworks. If that's Berlin alone, that's just nuts.

[Volourn]

So.. what happens if  a man enters these 'no go' zones? Do they get arrested, murdered, and raped for daring to go there? Isn't this a clear case of seism? Of stereotyping all men as monstrous rapists? I have a funny feeling that this considred illegal in those countries.

 

LMAO

[Orogun01]

So.. what happens if  a man enters these 'no go' zones? Do they get arrested, murdered, and raped for daring to go there? Isn't this a clear case of seism? Of stereotyping all men as monstrous rapists? I have a funny feeling that this considred illegal in those countries.

 

LMAO

I just always get the sense that they can't be open about racial stuff; same deal as a lot of countries in the anglosphere, so they can't just make it a Muslim-free zone. I think that it fits the whole new diverse Europe, what with their Holiday zones surrounded by festive concrete Lego bricks and checkpoint entrances. It is just the price to pay to live in a diverse society.

[HoonDing]

[Volourn]

Shouldn't those women be happy with no men around? :D

[aluminiumtrioxid]

Shouldn't those women be happy with no men around? :D

 

...Did you ever see a happy person on public transit?

[Malcador]

 

Shouldn't those women be happy with no men around? :D

...Did you ever see a happy person on public transit?

All the time. They're mentally ill, but still..

[Volourn]

"Did you ever see a happy person on public transit?"

 

Actually, yes. Annoying creatures but they do exist.

[smjjames]

I don't think we have a dedicated MidEast politics thread (well, there was the liberation of Mosul one), so...

 

The protests in Iran have gone into the third day and now there are reports of violence. It started over economic issues and then it just spiralled out from there due to existing discontent. I've also seen comments that it seems bigger (in size and being a big deal) than the Green Revolution eight years ago.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/30/middleeast/iran-protests-intl/index.html

BBC: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42524610

 

I checked brietbart maybe an hour ago and they didn't have the reports of violence yet, which were very recent.

 

Whether this evolves into something remains to be seen, but it's sort of like a spark igniting a pool of flammable material, you don't get that level of protests without some underlying discontent.

 

According to The Guardian, there were also chants of reinstating a monarchy and the late shah, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/30/iran-protests-trump-tweets , but um, take that with a grain of salt if you will because the monarchy wasn't exactly popular back in the day.

Edited December 31, 2017 by smjjames

[Zoraptor]

Take everything with a massive grain of salt. Most in the media and many governments are absolutely desperate for it to be a big deal; but the protests are far, far smaller than the 'Green Revolution' ones- and that revolution failed outright. There's a huge number of fantasy fulfillment tweets and the like being fired off about what they wish were true rather than what is. That's why there are a lot of 'weird' things being reported. If you're a 1979 expat Iranian you may well want to believe that, deep down, real Iranians love their Shah still; if you're a Saudi shill you want to believe that brave 'rebels' have seized a 200k city and an army depot full of guns.

 

A lot of the information comes from unsourced twitter users. I've yet to see video of any crowd of even 10k people which the 2009 protests went way past from the beginning, except the pro government counter demos that seem to have 100ks. Don't read the full twitter thread of that link though, it will give you cancer just as much as the anti Iran tweet chains will.

[smjjames]

More that I have no idea how popular a monarchy would actually be in Iran and don't know how popular the old shah is. Members of the royal family are still around and the current 'crown prince' (at least the first person in line for the throne if the monarchy was re-established, th) is pretty popular apparently. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reza_Pahlavi,_Crown_Prince_of_Iran Although there is an older daughter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahnaz_Pahlavi if Iran decides to allow women to be in line for the throne.

[Lexx]

I hate how everyone from the outside wants to tell Iran what to do. Especially this revolution garbage. It won't work that way, it will just make everything worse and at best, prevent real reformation of the country. But I guess that's what outside forces want anyway.. just destabilize yet another middle eastern country for whatever reasons.

[smjjames]

I see it as a bit of a tug of war between wanting to say something because Iran is pretty repressive (not as much as Saudi Arabia however) and they are brutal towards protestors and between trying to support them but at the same time not give the Iranian government an excuse to label the protests as being caused by enemies (which they already have started saying).

 

I've even seen a few articles by Iranians who say that Trumps tweets (and others, but Trump in particular) are not helpful since it has nothing to do with Trump or anybody else and is purely an Iranian phenomenon and the protestors might not even want help from America or others.

 

That said, there have been observations that these protests arise from deeper discontent than the 2009 ones were and are coming from a different segment of the population. A few have said it's more akin to a civil rights movement than a revolution or revolt, but it's still too early to see where it might go.

[Ben No.3]

So the polish government decided it was a great idea to release the names, addresses, birthplaces, locations and photos of around 800 sex offenders.

 

http://m.dw.com/de/polnische-regierung-stellt-sexualstraftäter-datenbank-ins-netz/a-42001872

 

The data includes pedophiles and especially severe rapists.

Furthermore, any school employing one of these people is threatened with fines or prison.

 

 

So I guess Poland has entirely departed from anything resembling rule of law or respect for human dignity.

Edited January 2, 2018 by Ben No.3

[Hurlshort]

How is that a bad thing? Why would you want schools to employ people with that sort of background?

[Darkpriest]

So the polish government decided it was a great idea to release the names, addresses, birthplaces, locations and photos of around 800 sex offenders.

 

http://m.dw.com/de/polnische-regierung-stellt-sexualstraftäter-datenbank-ins-netz/a-42001872

 

The data includes pedophiles and especially severe rapists.

Furthermore, any school employing one of these people is threatened with fines or prison.

 

 

So I guess Poland has entirely departed from anything resembling rule of law or respect for human dignity.

 

There are many things I do not agree with these people, but when it comes to Criminals, especially sex offenders, I am all on board to make sure they are eliminated from the public life and shunned. The last thing I need is to have some creep, that who knows what thinks, be working with people I respect and care about.

 

Sad part is, they are doing nothing regarding street thugs and football hooligans. I wish they were as dedicated on this part, but sadly, these are their voters, so they will not touch them.

Edited January 2, 2018 by Darkpriest

[smjjames]

How is that a bad thing? Why would you want schools to employ people with that sort of background?

 

+1

 

Though the sexual offender list here in the US is kind of 'one punishment fits all', including cases of teenage dumbness.

[Darkpriest]

I guess Ben would rather have these kinds of people taking care of children:

 

http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/berliner-jugendamt-vermittelte-kinder-an-paedophile-a-1185461.html

[ShadySands]

I guess it may also depends on the circumstances of their crimes. I don't know how the law works in Poland but here are some odd things that could get you labelled a sex offender in different states of the US. I know I automatically think pedo or rapist and not public urinator or consensual sex between teens.

[Volourn]

That's the thing. the term 'sexual offender' is almost meaningless now because   what it implies 9and used to mean) was rapist/pedophile/evil scumbag. But, now it can mean teenagers who had sex,  someone sent a **** pick (or boobie pick) to their significant other, someone who pisses in public, etc., etc. It is ridiculous.

 

So, 'sexual offender' means nothing to mean unless I know the actual 'crime' commited.

 

Some guy who pissed in the back alley at 19 after drinking with his buds  or soem girl who had the GALL to send a nudie pick should NOT be  lumped in with actual rapists.

Edited January 2, 2018 by Volourn

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

I think Ben is assuming vigilante justice will happen with their names and addresses being leaked more than he's sad kiddie diddlers can't teach, essentially doxing by the government. I won't lose any sleep over some pedo getting killed, but the government releasing personal information is worrying enough.

[HoonDing]

"How is that a bad thing? Why would you want schools to employ people with that sort of background?"

 

old poachers become the best gamekeepers