Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."

[BruceVC]

26 minutes ago, Elerond said:

I would point out that Zora claimed until last day that Russia will not invade Ukraine and there is no reason for them doing so. So I would not sigh for relief 

Elerond you must never forget Finland has been invaded by the USSR, so this Russian jingoism and belligerence cannot be ignored anymore 

Personally I feel much better and happier now that Finland and Sweden are going to be official NATO members. I am sure everyone feels the same ...now you really part of the family and we protect and support our family 

[HoonDing]

Captain Sweden will evaporate all NATO's enemies with rainbow-coloured laser beams shot from his eyes

[Elerond]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Elerond you must never forget Finland has been invaded by the USSR, so this Russian jingoism and belligerence cannot be ignored anymore 

Personally I feel much better and happier now that Finland and Sweden are going to be official NATO members. I am sure everyone feels the same ...now you really part of the family and we protect and support our family 

Finland's and Sweden's NATO membership isn't yet certain.

Turkey only dropped its opposition to start membership negotiations. There is still lot of opportunities for milking more stuff and delay the process

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, Elerond said:

I would point out that Zora claimed until last day that Russia will not invade Ukraine and there is no reason for them doing so.

The closest you'd get was me laughing at the prediction of a definite Feb 16th invasion date. Which was, well, incorrect.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

5 hours ago, majestic said:

Okay, 20 year old reference is old, but maybe it'll work.

Freedom never dies.

[Malcador]

5 hours ago, majestic said:

Why do you hate freedom?

Okay, 20 year old reference is old, but maybe it'll work.

Course it will work. Bruce is here.

[Darkpriest]

Btw, a commentary on a very anti-russian media, showing what many knowing hard data already knew for some time. 

It is in Polish, so @xzar_montycan translate if he wishes to do so.

 

https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/marcin-wyrwal-o-wojnie-w-ukrainie-oto-najwazniejsze-pytanie/xgwnz1s,79cfc278

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

The closest you'd get was me laughing at the prediction of a definite Feb 16th invasion date. Which was, well, incorrect.

Just some hours before Russia started their invasion, you thought that Russia recognised Lugansk and Donetsk in order to have leverage in negotiations but as we saw it was Russian way to get casus belli their invasion  

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, Elerond said:

Finland's and Sweden's NATO membership isn't yet certain.

Turkey only dropped its opposition to start membership negotiations. There is still lot of opportunities for milking more stuff and delay the process

What else do you think Turkey would want ?

[kanisatha]

2 hours ago, Elerond said:

Finland's and Sweden's NATO membership isn't yet certain.

Turkey only dropped its opposition to start membership negotiations. There is still lot of opportunities for milking more stuff and delay the process

The US govt has said they did not give any concessions or rewards to Turkey. I hope so, because I definitely do not want Turkey's return to the F-35 program as I do not trust them one bit.

[kanisatha]

We can all now breath a huge sigh of relief because France is finally fully onboard a common Western stance. Welcome to sanity, Manny!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-missile-strike-hits-crowded-shopping-mall-in-ukraine/2022/06/28/3141e28e-f6aa-11ec-81db-ac07a394a86b_story.html

[Malcador]

10 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

We can all now breath a huge sigh of relief because France is finally fully onboard a common Western stance. Welcome to sanity, Manny!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-missile-strike-hits-crowded-shopping-mall-in-ukraine/2022/06/28/3141e28e-f6aa-11ec-81db-ac07a394a86b_story.html

Compared to Bucha, a missile going off target getting this reaction is funny.  Maybe they are low on missiles finally (as we've been hearing since, March ?) if they used a Kh-22 - guess it locked on to the mall.

[Darkpriest]

17 hours ago, Elerond said:

Just some hours before Russia started their invasion, you thought that Russia recognised Lugansk and Donetsk in order to have leverage in negotiations but as we saw it was Russian way to get casus belli their invasion  

Truth to be told, I was sure that this was a more reasonable solution. Use diplo leverage from the EU on UA to get back to Minsk accord and assign the autonomy of those regions plus make sure that UA will never be in NATO. 

Even as the conflict seemed ineviatable, the most logical thing to do was to run a show of force and take over those two oblasts while making UA soldiers retreat under shock and awe. The strategic territorial gain would be also extending the land corridor to Crimea and lifting blockades from Crimea, so basically what they are doing now. 

 

I would had have never imagined RU was stupid enough to go for the big cities, including Kiev. I believe i mentioned right there, that Russia effectively made the war unwinnable when they attempted assault on Kiev. 

Edited June 30, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Darkpriest]

Was this shared here? 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/politics/white-house-ukraine-projection/index.html

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

Btw, a commentary on a very anti-russian media, showing what many knowing hard data already knew for some time. 

It is in Polish, so @xzar_montycan translate if he wishes to do so.

Can I? I had no idea I speak Polish. Trust me, I most certainly don't.

[pmp10]

Ukrainians reject peace at the cost of territory
80% won't even concede Crimea even at this point. 

[xzar_monty]

Well, most countries recognize Crimea as part of Ukraine so they do have a point.

[xzar_monty]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Compared to Bucha, a missile going off target getting this reaction is funny.

That's a fair point, but I think the reaction has something to do with the "last straw that breaks the camel's back" phenomenon, in the sense that when injustices or other such things accumulate, the point where folks go "I've had it, this is enough" is sort of arbitrary.

[Darkpriest]

2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Can I? I had no idea I speak Polish. Trust me, I most certainly don't.

Sorry, I was under impression you are from Poland

Must have mistaken with @pmp10

Edited June 29, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Darkpriest]

Let this sink in... 

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-has-lost-more-troops-than-there-are-in-the-british-army-expert-2022-6

[Gfted1]

Keyword being "infantry". The British Army has ~82k personnel: • British armed forces size 2022 | Statista

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, Elerond said:

Just some hours before Russia started their invasion, you thought that Russia recognised Lugansk and Donetsk in order to have leverage in negotiations but as we saw it was Russian way to get casus belli their invasion  

I was certainly wrong on the leverage part (though they still haven't joined/ been annexed by Russia, so right on that). And on balance of evidence didn't think the Russians would invade, which was also wrong.

It was explicitly on balance of evidence though, not stated as an absolute (eg 'unlikely' 'probably' and 'at this time', not 'will not'). Plenty of examples of me saying explicitly that they would not invade earlier though when they only had 100k troops, the shift was due to them having roughly the number I thought they needed for an invasion. Closest I got to an explicit will not later was when they didn't on the 16th.

Last clause is definitely a bit lol though- let's be honest, I'd probably done a better job of setting out why Russia did have reasons to invade than Russia herself in the lead up; even if I didn't think they'd do it.

[xzar_monty]

<heck, sorry, ignore. was not necessary. moderators can delete this.>

Edited June 30, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Darkpriest]

Seems EU is backing off from the confrontation over Kaliningrad. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-kaliningrad-row-eu-nears-compromise-deal-defuse-standoff-with-russia-2022-06-29/

[Mamoulian War]

22 hours ago, BruceVC said:

@Zoraptor Zora you did say that, Elerond is absolutely correct

Do you acknowledge you said that ? 

Well, a lot of people with a little bit more knowledge on Russia/Ukraine relations said that in a lot of different places, including myself, because no rational person would ever do this kind of action against country of 50 million with battle hardened army, with many allies, and would consider it as an easy and profitable task... Even the most powerful/rich oligarch in Russia Deripaska has released the statement few days ago at one of the schools, that destroying Ukraine is completely stupid idea, which would not bring anything to Russia, and that Russian has lost in 4 months every economic progress, which they achieved after the break-up of USSR...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/tycoon-deripaska-casts-doubt-russia-quest-victory-ukraine-2022-06-28/

Everyone sane in Russia except the ideological leaders and people deeply lost into their propaganda are seeing this from the beginning, and even before beginning of the war, that this conquest will bring Russia absolutely nothing...