Lets Get Political

[Gfted1]

Hey, if the dems could lose Wisconsin for the first time since 1984, anything is possible.

[BruceVC]

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/hong-kong-protests-june-12-intl-hnk/index.html

The protests in Hong Kong are getting increasingly more violent, I feel very sorry for the protesters because even though the draconian Chinese extradition bill signing has been delayed it will still be passed. Another example of China clamping down on human rights and people having a free and transparent trial if they get extradited  

[Gromnir]

trump promises not to spy on kim jong un: "i wouldn't let that happen."

and

Trump: If Offered Dirt By Foreign Government On 2020 Rival, 'I Think I'd Take It'

perhaps even more insane is watching fox talking heads abase selves as they defend the increasing bizarre and comic indefensible from trump.

HA! Good Fun!  

[Malcador]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/reports-of-incident-in-gulf-of-oman-send-oil-prices-up-11560410373

Hmm.

 

Edited June 13, 2019 by Malcador

[Gfted1]

Prolly a narwhal attack, set into motion by the reptoids, to pin the blame on long suffering Iran.

[BruceVC]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sarah-sanders-raj-shah-planning-to-depart-the-white-house/

Sarah Sander is going to be leaving the Whitehouse, good. I never liked her. Maybe we will see less fabrications and absurd justifications for some of Trumps outlandish and controversial comments 

[213374U]

1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:

Prolly a narwhal attack, set into motion by the reptoids, to pin the blame on long suffering Iran.

Nah, not the reptoids (that's a hoax spread by Zeta Reticulans), but the ruskies. Even The Grauniad has reported that they have weaponized whales. Clearly they are up to their old tricks again.

 

[Hurlshort]

People are making the Sarah Sanders resignation into more proof of the revolving White House door, but I'd say she stuck it out for a pretty good amount of time. 

[Gromnir]

she has done a handful o' wh daily press briefings in the past six month and none in the last three. why even have a wh press secretary? that kinda slacker effort deserves only one response

more serious, the lying is not gonna decrease. sean spicer, on day one, equivocated 'bout crowd size at the inauguration. after getting an earful from the President, spicer came out the following day and adamant defended trump lies. nothing has changed since day 2. only difference is sanders were obvious more comfortable fabricating untruths on behalf o' the President. 'ccording to mueller report, she went so far as to concoct her own lies on the spot as 'posed to simple transmitting trump lies.

so, spicer were a reluctant but complicit co-conspirator and sanders were an active participant in wh efforts to mislead. if we see unnatural progression continue, then next wh press secretary will be bernie madoff... right after trump pardons him. 

HA! Good Fun!

[smjjames]

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump decides not to select a new press secretary, after all, he thinks the best press secretary is himself (along with being the center of infinity).

Really though, I wonder who would replace her, since the job involves surgically attaching your lips to Trumps ass, which it's not supposed to.

Edited June 14, 2019 by smjjames

[bringingyouthefuture]

so ... and things just keep getting worse:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/navy-aware-reports-incident-gulf-oman-n1017066

 

[smjjames]

If Iran were doing those, wouldn't it end up hurting itself? I mean, sure, the prices get spiked, but in the long ron it's just going to hurt them.

[BruceVC]

23 minutes ago, smjjames said:

If Iran were doing those, wouldn't it end up hurting itself? I mean, sure, the prices get spiked, but in the long ron it's just going to hurt them.

There is no question of "  is Iran involved "  obviously they involved. Its part of the  broader, historical  Shia/Sunni interminable conflict effectively represented by  Saudi Arabia and Iran 

Iran is fighting several proxy wars in the ME like supporting the Houthi rebels in Yemen, keeping Assad in Syria  and funding  Hezbollah in Lebanon. They have been a very destabilizing influence in the region which is why Im aligned with the Gulf Arab states. Iran has made several indirect  attacks on Saudi oil assets  this year. Even though it may seem counterproductive because of there own production of oil due to US  sanctions there own oil sales have been severely impacted  so within Iran there  exists an attitude from some   " if we can't sell oil, no one else can as well " ....so they will go out there way to impact all Saudi oil sales within there own region but not through direct and obvious attacks. They will operate surreptitiously through there various proxies and special forces like the Revolutionary Guard 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/iran-guards-says-can-stop-hormuz-oil-exports-after-u-s-threat

 

[Zoraptor]

Doing it to raise oil prices makes zero sense from Iran's perspective as their primary enemy- Saudi Arabia- sells about 3x as much oil as they do so would benefit 3x as much from raised prices.

It makes a bit of sense in the context of trying to disrupt Saudi's oil trade when taken with the attack on the Saudi oil pipeline last week, but it still doesn't make much sense.

There isn't much that can be said about it at the moment as there isn't even a coherent version of what happened yet. [Well, claims are now that it's limpet mines, supplied video is... not exactly convincing though]

 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

7 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Doing it to raise oil prices makes zero sense from Iran's perspective as their primary enemy- Saudi Arabia- sells about 3x as much oil as they do so would benefit 3x as much from raised prices.

It makes a bit of sense in the context of trying to disrupt Saudi's oil trade when taken with the attack on the Saudi oil pipeline last week, but it still doesn't make much sense.

There isn't much that can be said about it at the moment as there isn't even a coherent version of what happened yet.

Its perfectly coherent and part of there strategy to undermine and attack Saudi Arabia oil production 

[smjjames]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

There is no question of "  is Iran involved "  obviously they involved. Its part of the  broader, historical  Shia/Sunni interminable conflict effectively represented by  Saudi Arabia and Iran 

Iran is fighting several proxy wars in the ME like supporting the Houthi rebels in Yemen, keeping Assad in Syria  and funding  Hezbollah in Lebanon. They have been a very destabilizing influence in the region which is why Im aligned with the Gulf Arab states. Iran has made several indirect  attacks on Saudi oil assets  this year. Even though it may seem counterproductive because of there own production of oil due to US  sanctions there own oil sales have been severely impacted  so within Iran there  exists an attitude from some   " if we can't sell oil, no one else can as well " ....so they will go out there way to impact all Saudi oil sales within there own region but not through direct and obvious attacks. They will operate surreptitiously through there various proxies and special forces like the Revolutionary Guard 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/iran-guards-says-can-stop-hormuz-oil-exports-after-u-s-threat

 

It was sort of a semi-rhetorical question, sort of 'even if Iran were doing it, it seems rather counterintuitive', probably also a touch of skepticism because Trump admin. Anyways, they aren't exactly being subtle here, right off their coast and the Revolutionary Guards are really the only group that close with the capabilities. If I wanted to be subtle, I'd probably have still planted a mine, but timered it so that it exploded a ways off from the Iranian coast, enough to make it not so obvious.

 

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Its perfectly coherent and part of there strategy to undermine and attack Saudi Arabia oil production 

Even when it ends up also hurting themselves apparently.

[BruceVC]

4 minutes ago, smjjames said:

It was sort of a semi-rhetorical question, sort of 'even if Iran were doing it, it seems rather counterintuitive', probably also a touch of skepticism because Trump admin. Anyways, they aren't exactly being subtle here, right off their coast and the Revolutionary Guards are really the only group that close with the capabilities. If I wanted to be subtle, I'd probably have still planted a mine, but timered it so that it exploded a ways off from the Iranian coast, enough to make it not so obvious.

 

Even when it ends up also hurting themselves apparently.

Its  a good  observation you raising, its so blatant  why not try to be more covert ?

The only point I can raise is the general pattern of most events in the ME. Countries and sectarian groups dont seem to either understand or care about negative attention or being able to deny there actions....like the killing of Jamal Khashoggi by the Saudis and there pathetic initial attempts to deny it 

 

 

[Zoraptor]

43 minutes ago, smjjames said:

..Anyways, they aren't exactly being subtle here, right off their coast and the Revolutionary Guards are really the only group that close with the capabilities..

They're definitively not the only group that close with the capability, of the Gulf countries I'd expect literally every single one to be able to have done it. Limpet mines are really simple and just about everyone has them, they aren't 'naval' mines but broader usage. Ironically, one of their more famous uses is blowing up Iranian scientists but they're also used extensively by special forces and the like for covert ops, sabotage, demolition etc. Any regional or visiting power- even including New Zealand, if we had a frigate there- could attach limpet mines to a ship, especially since they're delayed action so you don't have to be anywhere nearby when they explode.

 

[smjjames]

15 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

They're definitively not the only group that close with the capability, of the Gulf countries I'd expect literally every single one to be able to have done it. Limpet mines are really simple and just about everyone has them, they aren't 'naval' mines but broader usage. Ironically, one of their more famous uses is blowing up Iranian scientists but they're also used extensively by special forces and the like for covert ops, sabotage, demolition etc. Any regional or visiting power- even including New Zealand, if we had a frigate there- could attach limpet mines to a ship, especially since they're delayed action so you don't have to be anywhere nearby when they explode.

 

As far as capabilities, yes, you’re right, but the article (well, Pompeo anyway) was making the point that there aren’t any proxy groups nearby (unless you maybe count the Revolutionary Guard, since they act like a rogue branch of the Iranian military) with the kind of sophistication and resources, maybe I could have been clearer on that. And on top of that, there’s motive. Unless NZ had some ulterior motive to make the US and Iran fight each other, it wouldn’t make sense to point the finger at NZ, right?

 

Same for pretty much every other country along the Persian Gulf. I suppose SA could have hatched some harebrained scheme to do something like this, but they have far less drastic ways of raising oil prices if they wanted to. The others either wouldn’t do it without SA’s okay or they’d risk losing too much if they tried and got caught. 

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

They're definitively not the only group that close with the capability, of the Gulf countries I'd expect literally every single one to be able to have done it. Limpet mines are really simple and just about everyone has them, they aren't 'naval' mines but broader usage. Ironically, one of their more famous uses is blowing up Iranian scientists but they're also used extensively by special forces and the like for covert ops, sabotage, demolition etc. Any regional or visiting power- even including New Zealand, if we had a frigate there- could attach limpet mines to a ship, especially since they're delayed action so you don't have to be anywhere nearby when they explode.

 

Why who do you think is behind it Zora, lets not equivocate ...lets speak plainly in the interest of robust debate 

[HoonDing]

(((who))) do you think

[Maedhros]

Shinzo Abe is currently in Teheran for diplomatic talks. Would be really strange if Iran decided it was a good idea to attack a japanese oil tanker amidst that. This smells more of Mossad/Saudis to me, sanctioned by Bolton/Pompeo/Trump. Manifactured crisis.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Maedhros

[Agiel]

As if the IRGC has never needlessly landed Iran in diplomatic hot water before, or that it's categorically impossible for the Iranian leadership's right hand to not know what its left hand is doing:

 

Quote

Nominally, Iran is ruled by a popularly-elected government and parliament. However, Iran’s constitution assigns exclusive sovereignty and right to legislate literally to God, and therefore dictates that all the democratic procedures and rights are subordinated to the Guardian Council and the Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei.

The latter is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, the provisional head of the three branches of government and the director of the country’s media. This does not mean that Khamenei is ruling the country as an all-mighty autocrat. His power depends on support from dozens of rival cliques, most of which are a part of or at least associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Confronted with the rising power of the cliques, Khamenei sought a solution in letting the various groups take over different segments of the Iranian economy, including banks and insurance, the judiciary, the construction industry, the real estate sector — and the defense sector.

The result is a completely dysfunctional chain of command and totally unworkable decision-making processes. Iran is ruled by an official government and parliament, but the final say always lies with the supreme leader, who in turn has to satisfy interests of too many different interest groups.

 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Agiel

[BruceVC]

41 minutes ago, Maedhros said:

Shinzo Abe is currently in Teheran for diplomatic talks. Would be really strange if Iran decided it was a good idea to attack a japanese oil tanker amidst that. This smells more of Mossad/Saudis to me, sanctioned by Bolton/Pompeo/Trump. Manifactured crisis.

Yes that makes sense......the Saudi's attacked  themselves,  glad you pointed that one out. I had completely missed that connection  

[213374U]

Coincidentally, Trump tweeted a few days ago that Russians have left Venezuela -which has been denied by Russia- and the border with Colombia has been partially reopened. Tensions decreasing in that region, it seems, after Guaidó's efforts to restore democracy by means of a military coup definitively failed in late April.

And then suddenly tankers start blowing up in Hormuz. Good thing that crises that threaten the vital interests of the US know to wait for the previous one to subside before happening!