Politics and Statesmenship: A Forum Special Report

[smjjames]

22 minutes ago, 213374U said:

Also in Bolton's. No matter what comes, Guaidó will always be the president of his heart.

Brucie, gdiaf.

No need for personal attacks at each other

Aside from saying 'all options are on the table' (which seems to be the go-to to avoid contradicting mercurial Trump), he's claiming that a few Maduro aides are working on some peaceful transfer thing. Only problem is that a Guaido spokesperson has said earlier that they aren't in any kind of talks with Maduro. So, one of them is lying.

 

 

[smjjames]

A bit more I missed, Bolton also claims that the same Maduro aides knew about the revolt. While sympathisers or even insiders are possible, it seems like it'd be a massive leak if some Maduro aides got wind of it, so, I'm calling BS on that because those aides would have to be doing it secretly and just mentioning that there are aides who got wind of it could possibly blow their cover.

tl;dr: If there are insiders, it'd make zero sense for Bolton to blow their cover.

[majestic]

2 hours ago, Volourn said:

Sanders is cute. I bet his party and his business don't pay all their empoloyees top dollar either.  Then again, this is a guy who bashes millionaires while being one himself. The guy is  anazi plain and simple. The sad part is Nazi sjws loathe him because he is an old white man.  I'm also guessing that the majority of Disney employees aren't exactly  paid 'living on the street wages' either.

 

Walt was a nazi, so that's fighting fire with fire or some such.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

1 minute ago, majestic said:

Walt was a nazi, so that's fighting fire with fire or some such.

The only thing that can beat a sjw nazi is a sjw nazi. 

[213374U]

4 hours ago, smjjames said:

No need for personal attacks at each other

I suspect you might think differently if someone was openly calling for your government to be overthrown, possibly by means of a foreign military intervention, which would in all likelihood plunge the country into a civil war.

Then again, considering who's sitting in the Oval Office these days, you might not.

Just for reference, the Lima Group is a bunch of countries that failed to get enough support in the OAS to drive their coup agenda forward, so they appointed themselves "arbiters" of the situation in Venezuela. They have zero international recognition (outside of the US and its lapdog Canada), and their declarations carry about as much weight -- except with neoliberal ****wads, School of the Americas fanboys, and assorted trolls.

In other news, Leopoldo López is now seeking asylum in Spain's embassy. When push comes to shove, it seems not even Chile (a proud member of the Lima Group) wants anything to do with that flustercuck.

[smjjames]

20 minutes ago, 213374U said:

I suspect you might think differently if someone was openly calling for your government to be overthrown, possibly by means of a foreign military intervention, which would in all likelihood plunge the country into a civil war.

Then again, considering who's sitting in the Oval Office these days, you might not.

Just for reference, the Lima Group is a bunch of countries that failed to get enough support in the OAS to drive their coup agenda forward, so they appointed themselves "arbiters" of the situation in Venezuela. They have zero international recognition (outside of the US and its lapdog Canada), and their declarations carry about as much weight -- except with neoliberal ****wads, School of the Americas fanboys, and assorted trolls.

In other news, Leopoldo López is now seeking asylum in Spain's embassy. When push comes to shove, it seems not even Chile (a proud member of the Lima Group) wants anything to do with that flustercuck.

I didn't know you're from Venezuela.

I've read a little about the Lima group (which Canada is also in, for some reason), but not the deeper background.

Anyways, gotta wonder where Bolton is getting his intel from...

[213374U]

2 minutes ago, smjjames said:

I didn't know you're from Venezuela.

Err, I'm not. Though I see how you could get that impression from what I posted. Poor choice of words.

"Bolton" and "intelligence" should never be used in the same sentence.

[Zoraptor]

6 hours ago, smjjames said:

A bit more I missed, Bolton also claims that the same Maduro aides knew about the revolt. While sympathisers or even insiders are possible, it seems like it'd be a massive leak if some Maduro aides got wind of it, so, I'm calling BS on that because those aides would have to be doing it secretly and just mentioning that there are aides who got wind of it could possibly blow their cover.

tl;dr: If there are insiders, it'd make zero sense for Bolton to blow their cover.

There are only really two ways the naming can work, (1) they had nothing to do with anything and Bolton wanted to stoke internal tension andor get Maduro to panic or (2) they actually did talk to Guaido or the US but didn't do what was agreed when the time came and he's trying to drop them in it in revenge. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if they agreed to act as a way to get Guaido to blow his load prematurely and also see who else might move that they've missed; especially if Maduro is getting Russian technical support. Guaido seemed pretty sure he'd have a lot more military support than he actually got, and him being strung along by the head of the armed forces would fit that pretty well, though so too would good old fashioned wishful thinking or scenario fulfillment.

1 hour ago, 213374U said:

In other news, Leopoldo López is now seeking asylum in Spain's embassy. When push comes to shove, it seems not even Chile (a proud member of the Lima Group) wants anything to do with that flustercuck.

Wonder if they'll get 140dB Van Halen on loop.

[smjjames]

It's certainly possible that Bolton was trying to play some mind games on Maduro, but still....

As for Guaido thinking he had a whole lot more support, according to a The Guardian liveblog post, he appears to actually have had more support, but due to his arrest being imminent (or there were rumors of it), they decided to do the plan earlier than they wanted and then most of that support balked at the plan being pushed early

[Zoraptor]

I'm not keen on the theory of the attempt being premature per that scenario- though it certainly appears well premature in practice. From the US perspective Guaido is not personally important as he has no personal power base to bring to the table; he's important because he is the 'legitimate' alternative to Maduro, and any Venezuelan can theoretically fill those shoes. From their perspective it doesn't really matter if Guaido is arrested or even killed, indeed him being killed would probably be a net positive in practice. Guaido's perspective would no doubt be different on his personal value though so I could see him launching an attempt early against US advice, if he felt personally threatened. But, and it's a big but, he's also got in and out of the country multiple times while under Maduro surveillance so he has alternatives, and contingency against arrest surely must have been planned for extensively. Indeed, despite basically launching a coup he has yet to be detained even now (so far as we yet know, I guess).

That's why I tend to favour the suggestion that he got conned into acting too soon. If he feared arrest over much he'd probably be in Colombia or Peru rather than Venezuela in the first place.

[Bartimaeus]

Q: Did Bob Mueller support your conclusion?
A: I don’t know whether Bob Mueller supported my conclusion.
Q: Reports have emerged recently, general, that members of the Special Counsel's team are frustrated at some level with the limited information included in your March 24th letter. Do you know what they are referencing with that?
A: No, I don't.

-Attorney General Barr's Congressional Testimony on 4/10

 

"Mueller reportedly wrote a letter to Attorney General Barr objecting to his conclusion that Trump did not obstruct justice in the Russia probe" on 3/27.

Whoops.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Bartimaeus

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, 213374U said:

 

Just for reference, the Lima Group is a bunch of countries that failed to get enough support in the OAS to drive their coup agenda forward, so they appointed themselves "arbiters" of the situation in Venezuela. They have zero international recognition (outside of the US and its lapdog Canada), and their declarations carry about as much weight -- except with neoliberal ****wads, School of the Americas fanboys, and assorted trolls.

 

Im sorry to seem like Im criticizing you again  but this post highlights  a studious misunderstanding of how to address the Venezuela crisis and who the Lima Group is , you cannot just " hand wave "  there significance and efforts 

Lets be logical and ask ourselves, "  surly the countries in South America are the best arbiters in this debate ", as I mentioned earlier they have a vested interest in seeing Venezuela succeed

Have you noticed the countries supporting Maduro? They aren't exactly  bastions of " Democracy and human rights " and include " Russia, China, Turkey, Syria and North Korea "....yes South Africa Im embarrassed to admit also supports him but we are a new Democracy and dont understand effective foreign policy, South Africa tries but we constantly make incorrect decisions like joining BRICS thinking "  they like us because of the Cold War ideological support from the Soviets during Apartheid  and want to help us grow our economy  "  

Anyway going back to the LIMA group, a final reason we should be taking them seriously is many countries around Venezuela have had to absorb million of Venezuelans who simply have no access to healthcare or any kind of economic opportunity. In other words its like a war zone where you have mass  immigration. For the neighbors they have limited resources and this is not sustainable  

It boggles the mind that anyone would support Maduro and  think the current illegitimate government is " doing a good job and we should leave it alone " ...no this is illogical and simply doesn't represent the reality on the ground. Change needs to occur in the interests of the majority of the Venezuelan people 

 

 

 

[Elerond]

It would probably work better in end if western countries would end all trade restrictions towards Venezuela and let them govern their country as they want. As current approach has not really achieved anything else than made things worse in Venezuela and pushed it to become dependant of Russia and China.

Trying to force countries to change their governments usually just leads rise of hardline support of said government. Which may often be actual goal of these operations instead of actually trying to do anything to help. Because enemies especially small and manageable are often seen as good way to distract from domestic policy issues.

[pmp10]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Change needs to occur in the interests of the majority of the Venezuelan people 

All well and good but what would you suggest? Pretty much every soft-power approach has been tried and Venezuela is still rushing to be the next Cuba.

Perhaps aside from outright assassination or invasion of course.

And these didn't work out so well in Cuba.

 

Edited May 1, 2019 by pmp10

[BruceVC]

41 minutes ago, Elerond said:

It would probably work better in end if western countries would end all trade restrictions towards Venezuela and let them govern their country as they want. As current approach has not really achieved anything else than made things worse in Venezuela and pushed it to become dependant of Russia and China.

Trying to force countries to change their governments usually just leads rise of hardline support of said government. Which may often be actual goal of these operations instead of actually trying to do anything to help. Because enemies especially small and manageable are often seen as good way to distract from domestic policy issues.

But you cant have an illegitimate government governing with credibility, the previous election was a farce and the outcome is Venezuela's continued  political and economic demise. See the link below similar to the one I posted earlier 

https://www.dw.com/en/lima-group-recalls-venezuela-ambassadors-condemns-vote/a-43869375

If millions of Venezuelans cant live in there own country how can you suggest " we need to let them govern as they want " , its not sustainable. This is why the country is in the mess its in. There is a series of steps that need to be followed to address this which  I will discuss  under pmp10 post

 

9 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

All well and good but what would you suggest? Pretty much every soft-power approach has been tried and Venezuela is still rushing to be the next Cuba.

Perhaps aside from outright assassination or invasion of course.

And these didn't work out so well in Cuba.

You right, the real conundrum is " how to get Maduro to step down ", personally I would support him being forced down through  a proper military coup supported by the army. We have seen this ends other dictatorships recently  like Sudan and Zimbabwe. So we have regime change but driven and perpetuated internally, the Lima Group and other countries can fund and support it  but this should be done covertly so the regime change is not overly  criticized 

 

[Elerond]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

But you cant have an illegitimate government governing with credibility, the previous election was a farce and the outcome is Venezuela's continued  political and economic demise. See the link below similar to the one I posted earlier 

https://www.dw.com/en/lima-group-recalls-venezuela-ambassadors-condemns-vote/a-43869375

If millions of Venezuelans cant live in there own country how can you suggest " we need to let them govern as they want " , its not sustainable. This is why the country is in the mess its in. There is a series of steps that need to be followed to address this which  I will discuss  under pmp10 post

Venezuela has had questionable government over 50 years, which is why Chavez was able to gain so much support 20 years ago when he promised change.

Chaves economic actions were bad, but trade sanctions against Venezuela after his revolution have also played big part on destruction of Venezuela's economy. 

Venezuela's elections may have been farce and their government may have questionable right to govern from standpoint of Venezuela's law, but revolutionary leaders have even less legitimate right to govern the country and other countries support revolution they by definition give support for illegitimate leader, which gives that original questionable leadership enemy to point out which they can say is trying to take power from Venezuelans and make them seem as the legitimate government in eyes of said Venezuelans.

Which means that even if revolution is successful  there would most likely be millions of Venezuelans who can't live in their own country, because said revolutionary leadership needs to uproot those who see them as illegitimate government or face constant civil unrest, which most likely will be violent.

In other hand if other countries accept their questionable government, drop trade sanctions from time of Chaves and if they want to sanction for them for farcical elections  go through UN process to give them sanction for such behaviour. But in times when we don't sanction countries like Saudi Arabia for murdering its own people and terrorizing its neighbours, I am not sure if there is any legitimacy to punish poor countries for behaviour which we accept from richer countries. But opening trade with Venezuela would make food and other necessities cheaper for ordinary Venezuelans which would lessen their need to seek better life from else where. Also by going route of trade and humanitarian help other countries would remove that outside enemy which Venezuela's questionable government uses to get people support them. Eventually government in Venezuela would change for more legitimate version, of course there is risk that more legitimate version will still not do what USA says they need to do, but sometimes you need to live with disappointment.   

[213374U]

Reminder that the reason the UN didn't supervise Venezuela's election -despite being invited to do so by the government- is because the coup-mongering plutocrats in the opposition knew they stood no chance so they called for a boycott instead, and requested the UN do the same.

In any case, I don't think even Bolton's boss is stupid enough to actually want a civil war scenario in Venezuela -- so the military option is likely not really on the table, saber-rattling notwithstanding. That's bound to cause a humanitarian situation comparable to what we had to deal with in the aftermath of Syria and Libya, and that's no good for anyone involved.

Or... maybe that's precisely Trump's strategy to finally get a proper "national emergency" to get his wall funded, and he *has* been playing 11D chess all along.

[smjjames]

28 minutes ago, 213374U said:

In any case, I don't think even Bolton's boss is stupid enough to actually want a civil war scenario in Venezuela -- so the military option is likely not really on the table, saber-rattling notwithstanding. That's bound to cause a humanitarian situation comparable to what we had to deal with in the aftermath of Syria and Libya, and that's no good for anyone involved.

Or... maybe that's precisely Trump's strategy to finally get a proper "national emergency" to get his wall funded, and he *has* been playing 11D chess all along.

'All options are on the table' has become the go-to in order to not contradict Trump the Mercurial, diplomatic consequences nonwithstanding.

[Malcador]

Pompeo now saying that Russia told Maduro to stay.  Can't say I find the source all that credible, heh. 

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

Well I guess Venesuela is gonna have to wait for another coup to give up their oil restore democracy and freedom.

[smjjames]

17 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Pompeo now saying that Russia told Maduro to stay.  Can't say I find the source all that credible, heh. 

Yeah, it reminded me a little of when some people were thinking Ghaddafi fled to Brazil or whatever and then he broadcasted saying 'Yo, I'm still here and ain't going anywhere, TYVM!'.

Edited May 1, 2019 by smjjames

[Gfted1]

I wonder what will be the go to qq for when we invade countries after we've switched over to renewables. "They got the good sunlight over there! The wind never stop blowing across their plains!!" 

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Elerond said:

Venezuela has had questionable government over 50 years, which is why Chavez was able to gain so much support 20 years ago when he promised change.

Chaves economic actions were bad, but trade sanctions against Venezuela after his revolution have also played big part on destruction of Venezuela's economy. 

Venezuela's elections may have been farce and their government may have questionable right to govern from standpoint of Venezuela's law, but revolutionary leaders have even less legitimate right to govern the country and other countries support revolution they by definition give support for illegitimate leader, which gives that original questionable leadership enemy to point out which they can say is trying to take power from Venezuelans and make them seem as the legitimate government in eyes of said Venezuelans.

Which means that even if revolution is successful  there would most likely be millions of Venezuelans who can't live in their own country, because said revolutionary leadership needs to uproot those who see them as illegitimate government or face constant civil unrest, which most likely will be violent.

In other hand if other countries accept their questionable government, drop trade sanctions from time of Chaves and if they want to sanction for them for farcical elections  go through UN process to give them sanction for such behaviour. But in times when we don't sanction countries like Saudi Arabia for murdering its own people and terrorizing its neighbours, I am not sure if there is any legitimacy to punish poor countries for behaviour which we accept from richer countries. But opening trade with Venezuela would make food and other necessities cheaper for ordinary Venezuelans which would lessen their need to seek better life from else where. Also by going route of trade and humanitarian help other countries would remove that outside enemy which Venezuela's questionable government uses to get people support them. Eventually government in Venezuela would change for more legitimate version, of course there is risk that more legitimate version will still not do what USA says they need to do, but sometimes you need to live with disappointment.   

Okay, I see what you getting at. I agree there may be a backlash from some of Maduro's supporters if he is removed  and there could possibly be some kind of civil war or at least periods of violence which could destabilize the country further 

But if the army is behind the coup this wont happen or be less likely, of course this is hypothetical because the army doesn't completely support Guido

However the sanctions or lack of real investment absolutely will not be dropped or reduced because of what Chavez did in 2007, this is fundamental to the collapse of the Venezuelan economy. Chavez nationalized the numerous oil companies that had been heavily invested in Venezuela for 80 years or so. No country can steal the assets and businesses of foreign investors and then expect foreign investment. If you don't diversify your economy and rely only on  oil exports and assumptions of a high oil price   for economic growth and sustainability , which is exactly what Chavez did and thought would work, then when the oil price started crashing from about 2014 there was no primary source of revenue...and no way anyone would make meaningful investments in a country where the rule of law and order isnt respected. My cousins who are investment bankers personally managed accounts of clients who lost millions because of the nationalization of the oil companies 

Here is an excellent link that summarizes this 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/05/07/how-venezuela-ruined-its-oil-industry/#4fb076cc7399

So to fix this you have remove Maduro who cannot be trusted and then you must reverse the nationalization of the oil companies, then you will start to restore confidence and trust and achieve  FDI ( foreign direct investment ) to grow and build the economy 

 

 

[Malcador]

2 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

I wonder what will be the go to qq for when we invade countries after we've switched over to renewables. "They got the good sunlight over there! The wind never stop blowing across their plains!!" 

Lots of other resources other than oil.  Does certainly follow a trend though, although I'd say the US' constant interference in Latin America over several decades is at play here more than oil. 

[HoonDing]