How have the investors in the $1,000 items done?

[Craig234]

I remember seeing they offered a product for $1,000 to invest in the game; I liked the creative idea on financing and considered getting one.

I'm curious, how have they done compared to the estimated return?

[no1fanboy]

They are sleeping under the Highway bridge in a cardboard box

[Urthor]

Game needs to ship I think it's 500-600k copies to break even.

 

 

Currently at 220k according to leaked steam numbers because of the math bug.

[Aleh1811]

I am also curious about it. I would like this game to do well since I do want more games like this to be made. And Tyranny already failed economically (even though I thought that story wise It was way better than POE). So I am a bit worried that this one doing badly will mean Obsidian wont consider this kind of games to be viable anymore.

 

Off topic: Tyranny is an underappreciated gem, despite the combat mechanics being worse that POE (Runs away to take cover）

Edited July 16, 2018 by Aleh1811

[HooAmEye]

Game needs to ship I think it's 500-600k copies to break even.

 

 

Currently at 220k according to leaked steam numbers because of the math bug.

 

****, thats, like....just wow. 

[Urthor]

Yeah Pillars 2 sold like a dog RIP.  Obsidian are probably going to make back their budget but only just, apparently both the level of press coverage was far lower and maybe the May release date.

 

Pillars 3 very unlikely.  

[algroth]

Game needs to ship I think it's 500-600k copies to break even.

 

Do you have a source for this? Far as I know we don't know the actual budget of the game, or how much did the crowdfunder actually cover. Not to mention the actual money those sold copies translate to.

[no1fanboy]

 

Game needs to ship I think it's 500-600k copies to break even.

 

Do you have a source for this? Far as I know we don't know the actual budget of the game, or how much did the crowdfunder actually cover. Not to mention the actual money those sold copies translate to.

 

By law they have to release this stuff to the investors. Thats why it would be good if anyone who invested in the game could let us know if Obsidain have released any sales information to them yet

[warhaven]

Computershare (holding company used for investment shares in PoE2) / Fig / Obsidian haven't yet released any sales data to investors.  Just have to wait and see.    Might not start seeing anything until the development cycle has completely finished and the game has been released on the consoles so that they have all revenue sources collated and accounted for.

[Urthor]

I looked at the original figstarter docs for investing the 1k, their original prospectus was based around the 500k-600k mark as the break even point in 2017.

 

 

The 200k figure is taken from the steam sales though, their overall returns will of course be higher because DLC, but Pillars 2 is definitely a marginal product financially, a very marginal product.  

Edited July 16, 2018 by Urthor

[no1fanboy]

Your kidding me. Is thay prospectus still up there or if anyone has a copy of it can they post a link.

 

Thats insane

[Purudaya]

Game needs to ship I think it's 500-600k copies to break even.

 

 

Currently at 220k according to leaked steam numbers because of the math bug.

 

PoE1 sold 500k copies after 5 months as a PC only release (steam, backers, and GoG combined), PoE2 sold 220k after less than 2 months (that's not including backers or GoG) and is also about to release on consoles. Based on these numbers and the fact that the PoE series has had tremendous sales longevity so far (PoE1 went on to more than double its sales by around 18 months after release), there is no reason to assume that PoE2 isn't on track to meet Obsidian's internal targets. All of this has been discussed to DEATH.

 

In the most recent dev stream, narrative designer Alex Scokel was talking about future games in the PoE universe without the watcher as the main character - that's games, plural. If Deadfire was the bomb that players with some July 1st steam sales numbers say it was, we wouldn't be seeing Obsidian devs speculating genuinely and enthusiastically about the future of the IP. 

 

Unless we hear differently from an actual game industry expert or someone from inside Obsidian (the way we eventually did with Tyranny), we should assume that things are going roughly as expected. 

 

Edited July 16, 2018 by Purudaya

[Vitalis]

 

Game needs to ship I think it's 500-600k copies to break even.

 

 

Currently at 220k according to leaked steam numbers because of the math bug.

****, thats, like....just wow.

The games doing fine compared to the first one at the same point in time. Edited July 16, 2018 by Vitalis

[no1fanboy]

 

Game needs to ship I think it's 500-600k copies to break even.

 

 

Currently at 220k according to leaked steam numbers because of the math bug.

 

PoE1 sold 500k copies after 5 months as a PC only release (steam, backers, and GoG combined), PoE2 sold 220k after less than 2 months (that's not including backers or GoG) and is also about to release on consoles. Based on these numbers and the fact that the PoE series has had tremendous sales longevity so far (PoE1 went on to more than double its sales by around 18 months after release), there is no reason to assume that PoE2 isn't on track to meet Obsidian's internal targets. All of this has been discussed to DEATH.

 

In the most recent dev stream, narrative designer Alex Scokel was talking about future games in the PoE universe without the watcher as the main character - that's games, plural. If Deadfire was the bomb that players with some July 1st steam sales numbers say it was, we wouldn't be seeing Obsidian devs speculating genuinely and enthusiastically about the future of the IP. 

 

Unless we hear differently from an actual game industry expert or someone from inside Obsidian (the way we eventually did with Tyranny), we should assume that things are going roughly as expected. 

 

 

Another way of seeing how it is going is comparing it to other games that have been released at the same time. This was another method i used to evaluate how Deadfie is performing. Its not hard to see it isnt selling well compared to other games.

[Urthor]

https://www.growly.io/investing-on-fig-insight-from-a-veteran-investor/

 

This has the details from the original FIG pitch.  Basically FIG stops paying back once Pillars 2 on Windows (not console) including DLC, returns 14 million dollars.  

 

 

There's a big ole breakeven at 580k copies.  A big ole breakeven.  

 

Now, keep in mind that this is at an average selling price of 24 dollars or thereabouts because of the storefront margin of 30%, steam sale discounting of the title, etc etc, so they assume on average each copy will be 24 dollars.  The original 200k is obviously much above that mark, although it has to be considered whether backer money is returned to FIG investors, as a number of those 200k total players are backers.  

 

Now idk where the 500k Pillars of Eternity 1 sales after 5 months figure came from, but that is VERY interesting because I'm not in the business of internet archiving steamspy numbers.  If that's true then that's an interesting mark for the Pillars 1 slowburn.

 

Long term I have zero doubt that Deadfire will hit the breakeven and make back the presumed 14 million budget mentioned in the FIG investment article, however keep in mind that for return on capital you need to make approx 10% per annum, compounded, so whilst the breakeven point is "breakeven," the actual commercial rate of return is higher than the breakeven point, and may take awhile to hit.

 

I have no doubt that in the slimy depths of the internet FIG communication with its 1k backers will eventually emerge into the public domain and we'll see whether this game actually shipped well, but until then I am a very interested bystanded in Deadfire's performance.

 

I highly expect many Deadfire developers to be shifted to Tim and Leon's Wonder Game™ in the medium term, as Obsidian ramps up their Unreal 4 engine powered shot at the big time, and I don't think we will see a Deadfire sequel too quickly, especially with Josh being potentially MIA as he's pretty burnt out after this game.  But who knows, maybe they'll keep the Adam Brenneke division of Obsidian open and move straight into Pillars 3 or somesuch even after this performance.  

 

In terms of comparable games, keep in mind TTON and Tyranny were in fact proper disasters, although Tyranny could be blamed on the release date.  Battletech hit 450k and is financially succesful, while likely to follow the Paradox model of endless expansion packs more than likely.  

 

Edit: $23.6 * 203,867 units = $4,811,261, although those are higher value units as Deadfire hasn't gone through the full discounting cycle yet.  Deadfire has however had a number of discounts, so I would absolutely say the total revenue is far below 10 million.  

Edited July 16, 2018 by Urthor

[no1fanboy]

Imagine if they devoted those resources from the two disasters that where Torment and tyranny into making a better deadfire

[Verde]

I'm wondering how much the new setting had to do with it. I mean it's a near 180 from the previous game.

[Purudaya]

The 500k number is from Obsidian's October 2015 sales report: https://www.gamespot.com/articles/pillars-of-eternity-reaches-new-sales-milestone/1100-6431677/

I'm not saying that Deadfire is a runaway success, but that with our only data point being steam-only sales at 1 month 22 days post release it's just too early to tell. It would be interesting to find out what percentage of PoE1 sales were on GoG so we can better estimate what the actual total sales are so far: if GoG only accounts for 10% of total sales then Obsidian might have something to worry about, but if the number is closer to 30% then it's probably well on track to meet its goals. And that's not including console sales projections - I have no idea how to estimate how many copies will sell on other platforms, but it's clearly projected to be enough to justify the effort.

That said, even if Deadfire only breaks even or a little better (if it has anywhere near the sales longevity of PoE1, I don't see how it wouldn't), there's no reason to assume that PoE3 is dead as a result. Well-developed IPs are worth a lot more than any single release and Obsidian appears to be investing a lot into expanding theirs - while future releases might focus on better marketing or set higher crowdfunding thresholds, it would be really odd to see the IP shelved over anything less than a total sales disaster, which this does not appear to be. The lead narrative designer is already talking about future PoE games.
 

 

Imagine if they devoted those resources from the two disasters that where Torment and tyranny into making a better deadfire

 

Are you referencing Tides of Numenara, which Obsidian didn't produce, or Planescape: Torment, which Josh Sawyer only built the web page for and which flopped 20 years ago in a video game market completely indistinguishable from today's?

As evidenced by reviews, the overwhelming majority of players really like Deadfire. As evidenced by sales data (of which we have very little and only for one of several current and planned platforms), there just isn't enough to make any kind of definitive determination re: performance. Once Obsidian releases its figures, we'll know. Give it a few months.

Edited July 16, 2018 by Purudaya

[JerekKruger]

Imagine if they devoted those resources from the two disasters that where Torment and tyranny into making a better deadfire

 

Is the number one fanboy aware that TToN isn't an Obsidian game?

[Tigranes]

Maybe not, all of his posts seem to be rapid-fire streams of consciousness.

 

I never expected POE2 to outsell POE1 regardless of its quality, but it's a bit sad to see it where it is at this point in time. I think Obsidian would really like to make POE3 if they can help it - having their own IP, and this kind of IP in particular, has always been important to them - but I'm not sure they could expect sales to rebound if long-term POE2 sales prove poor.

[Flouride]

I am also curious about it. I would like this game to do well since I do want more games like this to be made. And Tyranny already failed economically (even though I thought that story wise It was way better than POE). So I am a bit worried that this one doing badly will mean Obsidian wont consider this kind of games to be viable anymore.

 

Off topic: Tyranny is an underappreciated gem, despite the combat mechanics being worse that POE (Runs away to take cover）

 

Tyranny didn't fail economically. It didn't reach what Paradox expected it to sell at release. But 562k copies + GOG + whoever haven't even started the game yet is profitable for Paradox. The team wasn't huge and the game wasn't being worked on for years.

[Dr. Hieronymous Alloy]

All the information I've seen indicates that Deadfire is selling okay, about on par with where, say, D:OS 1 was at similar points post-release.

[gkathellar]

All the information I've seen indicates that Deadfire is selling okay, about on par with where, say, D:OS 1 was at similar points post-release.

 

Indeed, going by Steam figures alone (and while Steam is the largest distributor by far it is not the only one), Deadfire is selling pretty much exactly as well as isometric, mechanically intricate CRPGs tend to sell in the same span of time if they're even moderate successes.

 

The game's been out for 3 months, people. That's nothing. Relax.

 

 

I am also curious about it. I would like this game to do well since I do want more games like this to be made. And Tyranny already failed economically (even though I thought that story wise It was way better than POE). So I am a bit worried that this one doing badly will mean Obsidian wont consider this kind of games to be viable anymore.

 

Off topic: Tyranny is an underappreciated gem, despite the combat mechanics being worse that POE (Runs away to take cover）

 

Tyranny didn't fail economically. It didn't reach what Paradox expected it to sell at release. But 562k copies + GOG + whoever haven't even started the game yet is profitable for Paradox. The team wasn't huge and the game wasn't being worked on for years.

 

And it was frankly pretty stupid of Paradox to have expectations as high as they did. Putting aside the question of whether it was any good, Tyranny combined awful marketing and a premise that put a lot of people (including me) off from the first.

[Flouride]

 

And it was frankly pretty stupid of Paradox to have expectations as high as they did. Putting aside the question of whether it was any good, Tyranny combined awful marketing and a premise that put a lot of people (including me) off from the first.

 

 

Yep, they expected PoE numbers from the get go. Not realizing how much of a marketing push PoE had due to the Kickstarter campaign. Tyranny didn't have much marketing before the DLCs were released.

But with those numbers, there's just no way that Paradox ended up losing money with the project.

[xzar_monty]

 

All the information I've seen indicates that Deadfire is selling okay, about on par with where, say, D:OS 1 was at similar points post-release.

 

And it was frankly pretty stupid of Paradox to have expectations as high as they did. Putting aside the question of whether it was any good, Tyranny combined awful marketing and a premise that put a lot of people (including me) off from the first.

 

 

I can't make any comment on the marketing side of Tyranny, because I don't think I ever saw any marketing (heck, the only reason I know about PoE is that a friend of mine told me about it -- I absolutely don't follow any internet marketing, of anything). But your second point is spot on. When I heard that Tyranny was coming out, I checked what it was about... and immediately decided that the game was not interesting. The premise was completely off-putting.

 

Once it became available for cheap, I tried it, and decided within 15 minutes that it was just as uninteresting as it had seemed, so I took my chance of a refund (less than 1 hour of game-time) and that was it.