Loving all the feedback. Sorry it took so long to respond. I wanted time to read this properly with a good coffee.
I see a division between tech and politics in the feedback.
Tech:
1. Lemurs. Lots and lots of lemurs.
2. Non-oil energy
3. Wireless comms speed increases
Geopolitics:
1. China growing
2. Mideast shrinking in economic importance
3. Growth of democracy lite
4. Mideast reform
~
To me it seems there are clear interlinks between tech and some of these changes. Viz the Mideast changes and growth of non-oil tech. And I agree with most of what you've said.
However, there seem to be some missing links. I wonder if you agree.
1. Chinese growth is likely to come at a cost in the State's capacity to control itself. Many commentators think China is proving that autocracies are optimal capitalist systems, but rampant instability in the Chinese high capital markets suggests otherwise to me.
2. Chinese growth will be tied to information access. Will information speeds be mirrored by information control, or the reverse? This will be criticial to defining Chinese stability.
3. I agree that many nations are following China's autocratic 'potemkin' democracy model. However, if China shakes itself apart like a leprous bicyclist then what about those countries following it?
4. Non-oil technologies may generate changes in how we produce power, but what will happen to the petro-dollars accrued by these states in the meantime? Will they be invested in other power technologies?
5. No-one has mentioned population shifts. Africa could be facing a 40-60% death rate from HIV in the next ten years, which no-one seems to give a **** about. While the Mideast is looking at rapidly growing underclasses of Angry Young Men .