Ukraine Conflict - war continues on

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, Lexx said:

From where do you get that information?

That is obviously doomposting. The situation isn't that bad, though it is bad.

Ukraine clearly isn't going to accept just any old deal just from the events of the last few days even if they've shifted significantly in terms of what they will accept over the last few months. Europe also clearly doesn't really care that much about the current corruption scandal given who they just welcomed with open arms- Yermak, probably the second most important guy who has been implicated; and the chief negotiator with Rubio and the Euros. Which, one suspects, was Zelensky calling their bluff as much as anything, making sure there's lots of footage of Euro politicos shaking hands with him in case of more pressure to sack him.

The collapses are strictly localised, at the moment. The problem is that while Ukraine can still stop the really critical ones they just shift elsewhere, which then eventually become critical themselves, and the timeframe for the collapses is accelerating. They are at real risk of losing three very important towns inside a month which hasn't happened since the start of the war; one of which people would have thought you mad suggesting it was in play a month ago (Huliapole; for all that people make fun of Russia not learning you'd think Ukraine would have some defences facing north for a major defensive city after 40 months...). 

The desertions are a big problem though, that isn't overstated. Getting actual figures is difficult, since there are at least three classifications for desertion adjacent absence from service (~awol, 'missing*', and criminal desertion) and the whole thing is highly politicised. Best estimate seems to be at least a 5 figure number deserting every month and something like a quarter of a million total. The interesting recruitment method videos are also so ubiquitous now that only the most die hard of Ukraine supporters think they're just Russian propaganda.

*though more usually that's dead rather than deserted, and used to avoid paying widow pensions/ compensation it's also for those who desert under combat conditions or surrender without a fight and don't want to register with the RC for fear they'll be traded back.

Edited November 24 by Zoraptor

[Amentep]

Old thread -

 

[BruceVC]

12 hours ago, Malcador said:

Well not sure the front is collapsing, but Ukraine's on the backfoot now and has been for some time.  They have troop shortages and that's making things worse as people on the front are going to break.   Russia's not stellar by comparison, but this a rate fight, so to speak.

Quite true.

Educate me, how did Ukraine serve its purpose and who did they serve?

I have followed this type of opinion before and it always has holes in logic and historical consistency and of course generally ignores the reason Ukraine is getting support from the West, Russia invaded a sovereign country that is on border of the EU and this country has direct cultural ties to several East European countries with a history of Soviet occupation. So a Russian invasion of Chechnya would not get  the same interest or support  for understandable reasons 

But go into details?

[BruceVC]

13 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Well, all of this seems moot now, because apparently yesterday in Geneva very good progress was made on amending the document on all points, such that everyone--the US, the Europeans, and most importantly the Ukrainians--are now satisfied and on the same page. It seems that the Ukrainians are willing to accept the painful territorial concessions, just as I expected and predicted, in exchange for very strong security guarantees, protection of their sovereignty, and a good reconstruction plan. But that is all the more reason to expect that Putin will very likely reject it. It will at least serve to put more pressure on the Russians, though, and hopefully also will re-isolate them internationally if we can get other major states around the world to accept the modified plan as a good plan that is reasonable and fair to both sides.

But as I mentioned what surprised me was the reaction to this first " peace plan " as if it was a done deal 

And we have been through this before so its not unprecedented. I have stopped quoting Trump on Ukraine because of how many times he has said things and then backtracked, I got tired of being interested in something that didn't materialize  (like the long range missiles )

The EU and Ukraine will always need to accept the terms and then it goes back to Russia. 

After those steps then we can objectively commenting on the terms 

[Malcador]

7 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Educate me, how did Ukraine serve its purpose and who did they serve?

I have followed this type of opinion before and it always has holes in logic and historical consistency and of course generally ignores the reason Ukraine is getting support from the West, Russia invaded a sovereign country that is on border of the EU and this country has direct cultural ties to several East European countries with a history of Soviet occupation. So a Russian invasion of Chechnya would not get  the same interest or support  for understandable reasons 

But go into details?

Is a proxy war of sorts, maybe not purpose but they have been useful, at least for the countries that matter.  

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-peace-deal-trump-driscoll-abu-dhabi-talks-latest/

Ukraine agrees to a set.

Edited November 25 by Malcador

[rjshae]

Haven't we seen this movie before? Putin will decline the peace deal; Trump will rant and rage.

[kanisatha]

Yes, exactly. Putin has already rejected the European version of the plan. The US is still pushing its original version, with some small modifications, on the Ukrainians, but they're sure to reject that.

The problem now is very obvious. Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield, so Putin has zero incentive to accept something *less* than what he (very realistically) can get from fighting on. And he is not just in it for land anymore. Now, he wants a post-partition Ukraine that is effectively subjugated to Russia, where Russia calls the shots in Kiev. Hence, small Ukrainian army size, no military agreements of any kind with anyone unless approved by Russia, Russian language sanctified in the Ukrainian constitution, and an election that Putin can manipulate and get an at least open to deal-making with Russia figure as the new Ukrainian leader. And why not? Putin does hold (almost) all the cards.

But of course the worst actors here are Macron and Merz. They went to Geneva on Sunday and told the Ukrainians to reject everything by selling Zelenskiy false hope. False hope that they will help to save Ukraine from Russia, including even if Trump walks away from the Ukrainians. Macron and Merz are using the Ukrainians as a pawn to be sacrificed to Putin to buy themselves some time to get their heads out of their asses.

Mark my words. If the war drags on, expect Ukraine to be fighting to hold on to Kiev by July or August '26.

[kanisatha]

Well, seems like the Ukrainians have accepted the US plan, "with only a few small details to be worked out." The meetings today between the US and Russian sides in Abu Dhabi appear to have been very productive. Apparently the Ukrainians were there as well and the US mediated between them and the Russians to hammer out agreement on details. I also saw a report that said Zelenskiy has been in agreement on the need to end the war now because the longer it goes on the worse Ukraine's bargaining position will get. But he was very concerned how nationalist hardliners in Ukraine would react if he gave away "too much." So, he wanted Trump to play "bad cop" and push a deal on him so he could tell the hardliners he had "no choice" but to accept the deal. I can actually see that being true. The battlefield situation for Ukraine is not good at all. As VP Vance recently put it, looking at it as Ukraine is being forced to give up 20% of its territory is not the proper way to look at it. The proper way to look at it is that Ukraine gets to keep 80% of its territory, has its sovereignty recognized and accepted, and can now focus on its economic reconstruction and development. That's a win, not a loss. And frankly, I generally agree with this assesment. Taking a weak 'W' *is* better than taking a bad 'L'.

[BruceVC]

We already know how people are trained and prepared when they engage with Trump but its always weird to see it in action. This leak is from Witkoff to the Russians and what they need to say to him

Two key points, its embarrassing how insincere  and expected this type of engagement with Trump is but it creates results. Witkoff seems very close to the Russians but you could argue he just wants to get agreement on the latest deal and he knows how mercurial Trump can be and how you need to engage with him 

 

[Chilloutman]

well, I am not going to pretend I thought others would try to sell it different way. Now its just 'uncovered'

[Sarex]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/9/record-numbers-of-ukrainians-desert-army-amid-losses-to-russia

[Zoraptor]

The most surprising thing is the low incidence of violence towards recruiters. You'd think that a lot of the deserters at least would be armed even if the ones who were 'just' draft dodgers weren't. Similarly, only heard of one incident of fragging at a training center. Though I guess in both cases it'd be the sort of thing people would want to keep under wraps.

[uuuhhii]

wasn't eu considering expel refugee back to ukraine to fill the trench

are they still considering

[pmp10]

6 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

The most surprising thing is the low incidence of violence towards recruiters. You'd think that a lot of the deserters at least would be armed even if the ones who were 'just' draft dodgers weren't. Similarly, only heard of one incident of fragging at a training center. Though I guess in both cases it'd be the sort of thing people would want to keep under wraps.

By most accounts Ukraine is rarely forcing soldiers into the actual frontline trenches. 
Majority of AWOLs and shirkers won't turn violent if not forced to. 

How long they can keep up this approach is another matter. 

[Zoraptor]

Can't agree with that. There have been a lot of complaints- including in that article- about people being forced to go straight into combat after short training and the low life expectancy that brings.

Or at least, there is the strong perception that that happens, which is probably more important than the objective reality in this case. And a fair few complaints at various times that even skilled/ specialist personnel are being forced into front line positions due to manpower shortages.

End of the day if the majority were going into drone units or logistics or other 'cushy' jobs- or if that were the perception- they'd have a lot less problem with desertion in the first place.

6 hours ago, uuuhhii said:

wasn't eu considering expel refugee back to ukraine to fill the trench

are they still considering

Not sure they can legally. Or if it was ever intended as a practical suggestion as opposed to a sort of 'aspirational' idea intended to put pressure on Russia and pander to anti immigration types. Don't think it really worked at all in either respect if it was.

[Gfted1]

In a first, Ukraine says it struck Russian submarine in Black Sea port with underwater drones | CNN

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-welcomes-90-billion-euro-eu-loan-despite-lack-deal-russian-assets-2025-12-19/

Ukraine got their money, so they're still in the fight for a while (assuming all the fear mongering about the funding was true).

[Zoraptor]

That will buy a lot of gold toilets.

Really though, doubt there could be anything which epitomised the EU leadership more than that funding saga. Weeks of being told that the sky would fall in if Belgium didn't unilaterally seize Russian money, with no guarantees from the EU or anyone else against the consequences of it*. Inevitably leading to fricking Belgium being compared to Hungary and Slovakia and what should be an embarrassing climbdown by the leadership labelled as yet another great victory. Now we can start the next cycle: how the 20th round of sanctions will bring Russia to her knees and how it's really really necessary to allow the executive to levy and maintain sanctions without having to have unanimity to protect against the unfettered radicalism and selfishness of those perfidious Belgians. Sorry, Hungarians and Slovaks. So easy to confuse the three.

*which of course never happened even for literal literal Nazi Germany because seizing state funds is very obviously capital I Illegal under multiple agreements. That neither von der Leyen's EU itself nor any of its equally shouty constituents would do so when invited illustrates that they also knew perfectly well that was the case, and it was all performative. Because they want an excuse for yet more unpopular 'loans' that they must by this time suspect is never ever going to get repaid. In this case they couldn't blame Orban so instead blame Belgium. Literally literally one of the protoEU's first three members, lest we forget.

[PaleElfPsion]

3 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

*which of course never happened even for literal literal Nazi Germany because seizing state funds is very obviously capital I Illegal under multiple agreements

 

Yes and no. Russia also confiscated a lot of stuff from the west. Besides, RU invasion also is illegal and violated multiple agreements. That said, the main argument against it is not legality. IS that 1 - It is probably the unique thing dissuading RU from attacking more European countries. 2 - It is a huge leverage in peaceful negotiations, if RU is sent into negotiations, not continue sending the same ultimatum. 3 - Can create a "bank run" and others cna believe to be the next and withdraw the funds. 

 

On 11/24/2025 at 7:41 AM, Chilloutman said:

Ukraine is over, they will accept any plan at this point, front is collapsing, soldiers are deserting at mass and latest corruption scandal will deal final blow to EU support. Better to accept whatever they can get now than later

Can you please give me your sources? Preferentially not sources claiming that Ukraine lost entire Azov batallion six times in 2022. And a time where UA will collapse and accept whatever they can get? 

 

__________________________

Anyway, war update from Sinitar gaming discord. A Ukrainian gamer. 
 

Quote

 

  Ukraine update, December 18, is up

War update:

• Ukrainian underwater drones destroyed a half-billion worth submarine in russian port city of Novorossiysk
• The AFU performed a successful counter-offensive at at the city Kupians'k in Kharkiv oblast, encircling the russian invaders, as well as having returned control over ~16 sq. km. near Pokrovs'k
• At the same time, russian invaders are advancing near Huliaipole and Sivers'k cities
• Total casualties of russian invaders up to December 18 are on the attached infographics
• Notable Ukrainian hits at russian military objects and bases, since the last update post: oil refineries & storage facilities in: Moscow, Krasnodar (x5), Rostov (x3), Orlov, Tambov, Ryazyan, Saratov, Yaroslavl, Tver, Orenburg, Volgograd, Astrahan regions, as well as in Chechnya autonomic region of russia, as well as missile and drone attacks that destroyed MIG-29 jet & AN-26 cargo plane, damaged several jets and air defence systems in occupied Crimea and "Pantsir" air defence system in ocupied Donets'k
• Ukraine does no have any more limitations to attacks on russian oil and gas facilities, even around the globe - and the US is supporting this strategy. The Trump administration has effectively given Ukraine the green light to strike at russia’s “shadow fleet”, while US provides the needed intelligence data

 

Edited Friday at 08:52 PM by PaleElfPsion

[Malcador]

A Ukrainian gamer is better than Sushko, I guess.

[Zoraptor]

Random gamers are probably about as accurate as Syrsky or Gerasimov to be honest.

5 hours ago, PaleElfPsion said:

Yes and no. Russia also confiscated a lot of stuff from the west. 

Yes, but that was all privately owned/ state company stuff. And was done reciprocally; eg the rather orwellian named company 'Securing Energy For Europe' was previously Gazprom Germany, seized by Germany, and nationalised. No one has seized actual governmental money- bonds and the like- and no one will. Indeed, while talking big about it, the UK has confirmed today that they won't either, and the amount they'd be risking is something like 1/10th what Belgium would be. 

Quote

1 - It is probably the unique thing dissuading RU from attacking more European countries. 2 - It is a huge leverage in peaceful negotiations, if RU is sent into negotiations, not continue sending the same ultimatum. 3 - Can create a "bank run" and others cna believe to be the next and withdraw the funds. 

The problem with 1 & 2 is that they really cannot work that way. You cannot legally seize the money; you can just freeze it. If you do seize it it will have to be returned, and with penalties.

If they could, they'd do it, and all the hawkish people like Merz and von der Leyen would be willing to write out actual guarantees. That they won't guarantee it speaks volumes: they're keen on it, but only so long as someone else takes all the risk. It's not like Belgium is 'pro Russian' in any other respect; they don't want to do it because they know they'd be the on the hook for a hundred+ billion- and the EU, Germany, the UK and the Baltics wouldn't.

The only place likely to have runs on their banks would be Belgium, when they inevitably have to find something like 25% of their entire GDP (plus penalties) to pay Russia back.

[uuuhhii]

didn't nato expansion also break some old agreement

but who care at this point

war is a racket and 100 billion more just throw into it

[PaleElfPsion]

 

14 hours ago, uuuhhii said:

didn't nato expansion also break some old agreement

False.  Gorby himself saying that it was not even discussed. Even if was discussed and promised. This don't give the right to Russia to invade a country, mainly a country which they promised to leave alone in 1991. And in 1994, when Ukraine was pressured to be denuclearized. And recognized Ukraine borders multiple times. Here is a video of Gorby himself about NATO : 

That said, thanks to Putin, Sweden and Finland are now on NATO.

 

KGB Dwarf is the best NATO Salesman ever. 

_____________________________

 

 

[Sarex]

With that amount of money they can get AI to fight the war now...

I'm not sure what exactly that 90b is supposed to change. No one in Europe is willing to part with more of their arsenal without replacing it and money can't buy manpower. Realistically that money ensures that the Ukraine doesn't collapse due to lack of ammunition but even that is capped by production.

[Zoraptor]

Their defence budget alone is meant to be ~60$bn, annually.

Which sounds ridiculous and is, but may actually be an underestimate of the true cost. A 4 unit Patriot battery has around 400$mn (!) worth of pac-3s loaded (16 units/ launcher, 6mn per rocket. Not quite as bad as it sounds, it's 10 million for the old pac-2s, if you're Saudi Arabia). Firing them off once a week would be 20bn, alone; and Ukraine has more than one battery. Even if you go back to the cheapest pac-3 cost listed it's still ~13bn to fire one battery off weekly. That's partly why Europe has been so awful at ramping up actual production: it costs monumental amounts of money to make and run the fancy gear which everyone in the west has been conditioned to think is necessary. Then your 30mn euro shiny new Leo2 gets popped by a $300 drone using a $50 cold war era rpg warhead for everyone to see.

The money overall pays everything from salaries for teachers- and soldiers- to generators to keep the lights running. The 'funny' thing is that 45bn p/a isn't even close to enough. It covers the theoretical budget deficit, but is only about 2/3 of the amount actually needed. And of course it's for two years. In two years time they'll need another 90bn.