Ukraine Conflict - Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit

[Malcador]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/bill-clinton-nato-expansion-ukraine/629499/

Clinton on NATO expansion

[Gorth]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61028380

 

I don't know how reliable Der Spiegel is as a source, but according to them, The BND (German Intelligence Service I think, Bundesnachrichtendienst or some such) intercepted radio communication between the Russian troops in Bucha, leading up to massacre of the civilians.

 

According to Spiegel, the intercepts also appeared to indicate that mercenaries from Russia's private Wagner group played a key role in the Bucha killings.

 

Wagner is known for callous brutality in previous theatres of war...

[Zoraptor]

Doubt it was Wagner. Certainly not because they're incapable of atrocities though, they most certainly are. Mostly because they seem to only pop up in Ukraine when a boogie man is needed and all the intelligence on them is mutually contradictory.

eg I think someone else linked Wagner casualties as being 4000 dead weeks ago, which is more than they even have employed. Indeed British Intelligence has them only deploying about 10 days ago, and to eastern Ukraine. That's not the only report of them deploying though, to be fair.

[Gorth]

It just fits the MO of Wagner better than the regular Russian army. Not that the Russians don't kill civilians, they do, a lot. But it's usually more a "convenience" thing. Lets flatten those residential areas rather than fighting block to black and door to door kind of way. Bucha was atrocities for atrocities sake, somebody who wanted it to be seen and known.

[Zoraptor]

That doesn't really fit what happened though. If they wanted it publicised to frighten others into submission or whatever they'd have, well, publicised it. As it is it's only come out after they've withdrawn.

Wagner's certainly more of a "let's do something monumentally stupid, and let's film ourselves doing it so we get a reputation" sort of group when it comes to violence given some of their conduct in Syria and CAR. But that doesn't fit Bucha well at all.

[xzar_monty]

5 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

The depression in winter thing has a proper medical term: Seasonal Affective Disorder. Though technically it applies if a mental illness is regularly/ cyclically worse in any season, not just winter.

Spring is the worst season for suicides and less obviously the worst season for anxiety. Possibly because of the symbolism ("the world is waking up but I am not"), possibly because of what the increased amount of light and warmth does to us. Hard to get to the bottom of it.

But "flowers bloom like madness in the spring" (Jethro Tull).

Edited April 8, 2022 by xzar_monty

[HoonDing]

All this posturing, grandstanding and fake news almost makes you wish for a nuclear winter.

[ComradeYellow]

I'm starting to believe the crazies when they say only an alien invasion could save the human species.

[Chilloutman]

I mean I know Russians are ... confused ... but this? xD

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-lavrov-says-belarus-should-become-security-guarantor-ukraine-2022-04-08/

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, Chilloutman said:

I mean I know Russians are ... confused ... but this? xD

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-lavrov-says-belarus-should-become-security-guarantor-ukraine-2022-04-08/

Which would no doubt involve the stationing of a large contingent of Belarussian troops in Ukraine?

[Malcador]

Lavrov is a troll.

[kanisatha]

11 hours ago, Gorth said:

It just fits the MO of Wagner better than the regular Russian army. Not that the Russians don't kill civilians, they do, a lot. But it's usually more a "convenience" thing. Lets flatten those residential areas rather than fighting block to black and door to door kind of way. Bucha was atrocities for atrocities sake, somebody who wanted it to be seen and known.

A lot of the civilians murdered in Bucha were decapitated. Many had been tortured first before being killed. Sounds very much like Wagner and/or Kadyrov's thugs to me.

But what's now happening in Mariupol and surrounding smaller towns is several orders of magnitude worse than Bucha. Estimates are that over 5,000 civilians have been killed thus far (just in the Mariupol area), with some 100,000 trapped and facing starvation.

Edited April 8, 2022 by kanisatha

[Lexx]

Haven't seen any decapitation reports.

[kanisatha]

35 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Haven't seen any decapitation reports.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/06/bucha-barbarism-atrocities-russian-soldiers/

https://www.tweet247.net/news/world/in-bucha-ukraine-evidence-of-torture-beheadings-by-russian-soldiers

https://twitter.com/maxbearak/status/1511947644788170756

[BruceVC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-would-have-rebalance-if-finland-sweden-join-nato-2022-04-07/

The negotiations for both Sweden and Finland to join NATO are under way and Putins threats are ironic considering Putins War is responsible for this possible outcome 

But more important @Elerond, @Azdeus, @Pidesco what do you guys personally think and what is the general sentiment from people you know about joining NATO?

Edited April 9, 2022 by BruceVC

[Azdeus]

Hard pass on NATO.

Had USA not invoked article 5 on 9/11 I might've had a different view.

[Katphood]

 

 

Spot on.

[BruceVC]

40 minutes ago, Azdeus said:

Hard pass on NATO.

Had USA not invoked article 5 on 9/11 I might've had a different view.

Yes I can understand this view, Codex Swedish members are saying the same thing

I also cant imagine Sweden going to war in a NATO campaign? I can see Denmark and Finland but not you guys 

[BruceVC]

35 minutes ago, Katphood said:

 

 

Spot on.

That was really cute, shame that poor bear 

[pmp10]

Russia is rumored to be mobilizing reservists.
Also reworking the command structure.

Pretty much buries all peace hopes at least until next Russian offensive plays-out. 

 

[kanisatha]

6 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-would-have-rebalance-if-finland-sweden-join-nato-2022-04-07/

The negotiations for both Sweden and Finland to join NATO are under way and Putins threats are ironic considering Putins War is responsible for this possible outcome 

But more important @Elerond, @Azdeus, @Pidesco what do you guys personally think and what is the general sentiment from people you know about joining NATO?

Russia's position now is a very sharp contrast with its position a couple of months ago, when it explicitly threatened a military response to these countries joining NATO.

[kanisatha]

6 hours ago, Azdeus said:

Hard pass on NATO.

Had USA not invoked article 5 on 9/11 I might've had a different view.

So then would you say there should be no Article 5 response in case of a 9/11-style attack on any other NATO member (including potentially Sweden)? Or is this just for the US? I'm trying to understand your logic here because the 9/11 attack fully satisfied Article 5 conditions.

Also, I vaguely recall that it was NATO, led by France, that invoked Article 5 after 9/11, and not the US.

[Totally not Gorgon]

mmm. NATO responded more out of a sense of gratitude towards the US for the resources it had poured into the alliance, as well as in realization that it was the first time anyone had ever activated the "musketeer oath". If it didn't respond the one time it was actually needed, that might pose some serious questions as to its future usefulness.  

But, it's actually pretty dubious whether there was any threat to US territory. Which was always the situation imagined.

  It was a case of "close enough". I suppose.  Article 5 is the fire alarm, you can't have it not work, it has to work. 

[rjshae]

Yes, most NATO members called for invocation of Article 5 immediately after 9/11. However, there's a certain flexibility in the level of support required to satisfy Article 5, and many countries supplied only token troops to Afghanistan.

NATO is still living with the consequences of a historic decision it made hours after 9/11

Military alliances are always a challenge; it's often easier from a command perspective to go it alone.

[Mamoulian War]

On 4/6/2022 at 8:03 AM, BruceVC said:

You funny Gorthfuscious  

By the way I was hoping the hotties from Juice Media would make a Russian " special military operation " video. Can you imagine how hilarious that would be but I dont think Juice Media does videos outside of Oz ?

they do