# What you've done today - The Edge of Night

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I was in Brownsville for business today. Stopped at the garden store over there to get some stuff for the greenhouse. I brought Sunmy in the store with me because it’s a small hick town and you get to do things like that. Anyway, I would had my hands full. Liquid plant food bag of potting soil was that kind of thing. Get up to the cash register and somebody gestured at Sunny and asked me if she was a service dog. I didn’t realize it but for reasons known only to her she picked up a bag of bird seed and was caring it in her mouth. I laughed and said nope it’s probably more accurate to say it’s the other way around.

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"What can't be changed must be endured"

Robert Jordan

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Ok guys quick math question, this has really been bugging me.

Say you're playing a turn based game and you have two attacks in a sequence, the 1st strike has an 80% chance of landing a hit and the 2nd strike has a 50% chance of landing a hit.

What is your overall chance of landing ONE hit?

I know it has to be at least 80% but how would you factor in 2nd hit into that equation?

Thanks in advance, I'm in pain here.

“If we are to have another contest in the near future of our national existence, I predict that the dividing line will not be Mason and Dixon's but between patriotism and intelligence on the one side, and superstition, ambition and ignorance on the other.”

-Ulysses S. Grant

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Ok guys quick math question, this has really been bugging me.

Say you're playing a turn based game and you have two attacks in a sequence, the 1st strike has an 80% chance of landing a hit and the 2nd strike has a 50% chance of landing a hit.

What is your overall chance of landing ONE hit?

I know it has to be at least 80% but how would you factor in 2nd hit into that equation?

Thanks in advance, I'm in pain here.

Its a difficult question for me to understand and I am sure I am misunderstanding something but you have to separate each attack because each attack will have separate damage metrics. So you cannot create a single overall chance because the chance rate will be separate, so its 80 % and 50 %

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

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6 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Its a difficult question for me to understand and I am sure I am misunderstanding something but you have to separate each attack because each attack will have separate damage metrics. So you cannot create a single overall chance because the chance rate will be separate, so its 80 % and 50 %

Ok let me try me make a simpler example...

You buy 4 lottery tickets, each ticket has a 25% chance of being a winner

What is your overall chance of winning?

“If we are to have another contest in the near future of our national existence, I predict that the dividing line will not be Mason and Dixon's but between patriotism and intelligence on the one side, and superstition, ambition and ignorance on the other.”

-Ulysses S. Grant

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i got a new case for my pc this Saturday because the old one was OLD... like 2005 old and it didn't fit the CPU cooler so i had it open for almost 2 years now. the new had 3 intake fans but no fan to push out the hot air. at first i thought to just move an intake fan to the back but then i decided it will ruin the looks so i ordered a new fan for the back which was supposedly in stock but it took them till today to notify me to go get it. its impressive how much of a difference a good exhaust fan makes, something i had forgotten with the open case

The words freedom and liberty, are diminishing the true meaning of the abstract concept they try to explain. The true nature of freedom is such, that the human mind is unable to comprehend it, so we make a cage and name it freedom in order to give a tangible meaning to what we dont understand, just as our ancestors made gods like Thor or Zeus to explain thunder.

-Teknoman2-

What? You thought it was a quote from some well known wise guy from the past?

Stupidity leads to willful ignorance - willful ignorance leads to hope - hope leads to sex - and that is how a new generation of fools is born!

We are hardcore role players... When we go to bed with a girl, we roll a D20 to see if we hit the target and a D6 to see how much penetration damage we did.

Modern democracy is: the sheep voting for which dog will be the shepherd's right hand.

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What is your overall chance of winning?

25% for each ticket, but I guess what you actually want is the probability of not winning at all with 4 lottery tickets with a 1:4 chance, which is 0.75^4, so you have a roughly 31% (bit more) probability of having all four lottery draws come up as a bust.

On average, you'd win at least once in 69 out of 100 tries when having four lottery tickets.

The probability of winning with all four tickets in a row is 1 : 256 (1/4^4).

That means for your attack scenario, you'd miss the first hit in 20% of all cases, and the second hit in 50% of all cases. In the end, your total probability of missing both attacks is 10% - seems logical enough, right? You miss 2 in 10 on your first try, and on average have a 50% chance of hiting the second one.

Likewise the probabiltity for hitting with both attacks is only 40%.

This assumes perfect random number generation, of course.

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No mind to think. No will to break. No voice to cry suffering.

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Posted (edited)

Ok guys quick math question, this has really been bugging me.

Say you're playing a turn based game and you have two attacks in a sequence, the 1st strike has an 80% chance of landing a hit and the 2nd strike has a 50% chance of landing a hit.

What is your overall chance of landing ONE hit?

I know it has to be at least 80% but how would you factor in 2nd hit into that equation?

Thanks in advance, I'm in pain here.

For exactly one hit, two scenarios - 1st hit, 2nd miss and 1st miss, 2nd hit.   I am guessing these are independent events, so can just multiply to get the probabilities for both cases : (0.8*0.5) + (0.2*0.5) = 0.5.

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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Unless you are talking about Xcom, because an 80% hit chance will always miss.

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Posted (edited)

Past two weeks or so while in my pc room, off and on all day and early morn like 2am:  "What is that weird/freaky noise? Did the neighbors get sick geese? Or a turkey? Mutated cats? What what?"

*YouTube*  ...  Oh, it's those white herons/egrets nesting in the street trees  ... it's weird because I don't remember hearing their gobbles and calls last summer and they were in the same tree. I also didn't know they made that kind of noise.  I always see them from far away, wading in the bay outlets etc.

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“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
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Posted (edited)

I have pretty well blown my whole morning researching on the web if Hector was a real man or purely mythical. Agamemnon was real. Being the king of one of the few Greek states that would eventually survive the bronze age somewhat intact makes that one easy. Priam was real according to the Hittites. They would know. They described him as restless and war like. They also said his heir was named Alexsandur not Hector or Paris. Paris and Helen and likely Menelaus were all mythical. Odysseus as King of Ithaca was a real man. But the historical figure would have lived and died long after the Trojan war took place if it ever did. But Hector is a bit of a mystery. It seems there is a Mycenaean account in Linear B of Hektor of Hatti being buried in Thebes. Same guy? Who knows. That would mean Achilles didn’t kill him end drag his body around the walls of the city. But since there was no Achilles it’s a  pretty safe bet that didn’t happen anyway.

has anybody ever looked into this? Does anybody know? @Hurlshotdo you know a thing or two about history. Any insight? Very curious.

Edited by Guard Dog
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"What can't be changed must be endured"

Robert Jordan

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Dear Diary:

My vaccine appointment date draws very near. I haven't cancelled it, but I still want to.  Because while one could rationalize it all one wants, I'm basically just a chicken and I'd like to wait another year or three for more possible long-term reports, and/or newer versions of vaccine. Not like I'm traveling overseas/other countries anytime soon.

I know one person who hardly had any vaccine reaction at all.  Another who just had a pretty sore arm. Others who had the "run over by a truck"/stayed in bed like some of you.  Which led me to very idly wonder if people with a high reaction might also have a higher chance of being a "worse case" if they did get actual Covid.  Probably not.  Just my bored brain pestering me with illogical nonsense.

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“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
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opposite: may 10 and our second dose can't get here fast enough.

sure, am knowing is kinda our duty to our fellow human beings to get vaccinated asap as there is current a race 'tween % vaccinated and the emergence o' new variants, one o' which may prove to be vaccine resistant. the more people who is vaccinated, the less likely is the possibility o' a variant appearing to f everything up and erase so much o' the positive gains from widespread vaccinations... which is why getting the rest o' the world vaccinated should be no less important for americans than is getting americans vaccinated. personal vaccinated hardly ends the story.

that said, every time Gromnir needs spend significant time indoors with a group o' people, we get all twitchy. is no way to know how good is the ventilation in the hardware store or the dentist office waiting room. civic duty sounds like a fabulous reason to be motivated to get vaccinated, but real reason we can't hardly wait for may 10 is to give us a little peace o' mind 'cause am knowing there will be many times in the coming weeks and months am gonna find our self elbow to elbow and shoulder to shoulder with folks whom we know not at all and given our less than ideal health, such proximity is cause for concern even if the concern is not large enough to keep us in a proverbial bubble or anything remote similar.

may 10 (two weeks after actual) ain't gonna be some kinda freedom from covid-19 celebration. vaccine doesn't provide perfect immunity. heck, we got the flu vaccine last year and still managed to get the flu in spite o' being ultra careful in part 'cause o' covid. that said, particular given how prevalent is the covid is a hoax narrative in our part o' california, being vaccinated will give us a reasonable response every time our bored brain pesters us with the possibilities o' aerosolized spread o' the virus in confined spaces.

HA! Good Fun!

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"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Gromnir said:

opposite: may 10 and our second dose can't get here fast enough.

Yes, and that's all very sensible/rational as well and I wouldn't disagree with any of such thoughts. And a little of that type of stuff crosses my mind, which is why I haven't canceled the appointment even tho I want to.

---while I could easily live for six months at a time (I do have to do blood tests occasionally...) never leaving the house or being directly physically exposed to another human being outside of hubby (as long as Amazon and Amazon Fresh or similar, and pizza delivery exists/works, anyway), hubby couldn't and wouldn't. Not just occasional work - he likes to go to Home Depot/other such places, the liquor store, etc. He could bring it home.
---I'm not completely "elderly" yet ... but I'm not exactly 20 and in the prime of my life/best physical shape ever, either
---I have Type2 diabetes etc.

...I'm still a chicken, tho, and a cynical one to boot.

8 hours ago, Gromnir said:

vaccine doesn't provide perfect immunity. heck, we got the flu vaccine last year and still managed to get the flu in spite o' being ultra careful in part 'cause o' covid

...and this type of thing doesn't help - that it's not total immunity.  I figure the odds of me (personally) getting it it in the first place, while not absolute zero either, are probably about as low as the vaccine would help most "normal" people to reach.

“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
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Not an anti-vax'er per se, just a bit apprehensive. Australian roll-out is a complete disaster (thank you Scott Morrison for your ineptitude), so no appointments yet. As for being apprehensive, it's a sort of traumatic childhood experience where my small pox vaccine almost killed me and I ended up hospitalized. Makes me glower very suspiciously at any needle approaching my skin with the intent to penetrate said skin

“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

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I get my second shot in a little over a week. I guess it will move me from 80%-->90% resistant? Cool cool.

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7 hours ago, Gorth said:

Not an anti-vax'er per se, just a bit apprehensive. Australian roll-out is a complete disaster (thank you Scott Morrison for your ineptitude), so no appointments yet. As for being apprehensive, it's a sort of traumatic childhood experience where my small pox vaccine almost killed me and I ended up hospitalized. Makes me glower very suspiciously at any needle approaching my skin with the intent to penetrate said skin

Heh, Sweden moved it's vaccination goal forwards today to all adults having recieved one dose in September.

It's going great here

Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary. - H.L. Mencken

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1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:

I get my second shot in a little over a week. I guess it will move me from 80%-->90% resistant? Cool cool.

Look on the bright side. Even if you are the unlucky 10% one, being vaccinated means its very unlikely to kill you or give life long aftereffects. Your family might appreciate it

“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

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Well, I guess we can all have the shining example of India and that view of "oh we didn't need vaccinations, we are inherently healthy and have achieved herd immunity"....

"Cuius testiculos habeas, habeas cardia et cerebellum."

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1 minute ago, Raithe said:

Well, I guess we can all have the shining example of India and that view of "oh we didn't need vaccinations, we are inherently healthy and have achieved herd immunity"....

More like herd mentality, but I'm prejudiced against populist governments.

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“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

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9 minutes ago, Gorth said:

The whole fam already has their first shot. You can count on that, Jack.

At least the threat of some superspreader coughing into my mouth when Im yawning, penetrating my mask, and getting me sick is reduced. As is the possibility of my potentially asymptomatic oral and nasal mists infecting a high risk individual.

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They're handing out vaccines like they're condoms in a high school here in Murica. We should share some of our supply with countries that are lacking.

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10 minutes ago, Keyrock said:

They're handing out vaccines like they're condoms in a high school here in Murica.

Agreed. Seems like here in IL they have swarms of drones that will blowdart you with the vaccine if you walk outside.

I guess Ive just lucked out so far that they havent yet found any issues with the Moderna shot.

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Here in Ontario, it's a bit of a mess. They have pop up centres in areas with a lot of COVID cases but that turns into a mess with people lining up for hours.  My age group can start registering to get a shot in a couple of weeks though, I would like to get J&J but those are earmarked for hicks in rural areas

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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I have an 11 AM appointment at Bradford‘s to get my first shot. Of course I will still be socially distancing after the second shot but it will be because I just don’t like people rather than that I’m afraid of what they might have.

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"What can't be changed must be endured"

Robert Jordan