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Coronavirus : Country readiness


BruceVC

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5 hours ago, Volourn said:

P.S. That guy is a coward. He didn't care about anyone but himself. I feel bad for his family and friends, and feel pity for him but he was a coward who gave up - the definition of cowardice.

You could also flip it around. Cowardice is when fear prevents you from making a decision, but he went through with it. A coward wouldn't have the guts to kill themselves. But that's also a simplification.

Generally I don't believe it's either brave or cowardly, it's usually just a result of mental illness. People killing themselves often think they're doing the ones around them a favour, or that people won't care that they're gone. Can't speak for this case in particular as I didn't read the article.

--

Going to be interesting to see the results in Sweden. They seem to be hinging it all on Tegnell's strategy.

 

Edited by Maedhros
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https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

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Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

 

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- When he is best, he is a little worse than a man, and when he is worst, he is little better than a beast.

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Just for the other flip side of conspiracy elements..

MSN - Wuhan Covid19 deaths may be in tens of thousands based on data of cremation urns

 

A stack of urns at a funeral home in Wuhan, the city's official cremation rates, and reports of an overwhelmed health care system have prompted speculation that Wuhan's real COVID-19 death toll could be in the tens of thousands—despite the Chinese government reporting 2,535 deaths from just over 50,000 coronavirus infections.

The coronavirus outbreak was first identified in Wuhan, Hubei in December 2019, before it then spread around the world, killing more than 33,000 globally as of Sunday. China's aggressive containment methods have slowed the virus domestically, with official new cases reported plummeting in the past few weeks. So far, Beijing has confirmed roughly 81,000 cases and 3,300 deaths, mostly in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus' outbreak. But many people, including U.S. politicians have accused China of underplaying their real coronavirus death figure.

Their skepticism were sparked by Chinese officials' attempts to cover up the severity of the outbreak in the early stages—before the disease became widespread overseas—and the numerous revisions made to how domestic cases are counted. Wuhan's medical system was overwhelmed during the height of the outbreak in China, which further raises questions as to the officially reported 2,535 deaths.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, Wuhan also saw 56,007 cremations, a figure 1,583 higher than the fourth quarter of 2018, and 2,231 more than the fourth quarter of 2017, according to data released by the Wuhan civil affairs agency. In 2019, the Wuhan population grew by only 1.1 percent from 2018, according to a U.N. projection. These figures could indicate that the novel virus' emergence in December caused an increase in deaths—a trend that likely will have carried through to the first quarter of this year.

Photos began circulating across Chinese social media this week of urns arriving in the epicenter of the outbreak, after families who had lost loved ones to the novel coronavirus were instructed to pick up cremated ashes from one of the local funeral homes in the city. These images raised a fresh round of questions about the real coronavirus death toll in China, with domestic citizens and international critics using the number of urns to accuse the Chinese government of lying about their figures.

Newsweek reached out to the office of Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai via email for comment. The Chinese Foreign Ministry was also contacted for comment, but a response was not received in time for publication.

Trucks dropped off roughly 2,500 urns on both Wednesday and Thursday local time to one of the eight local funeral homes, a driver told Chinese media outlet Caixin. The news site also published another photo showing 3,500 urns stacked inside the facility. The number of urns that arrived in that one funeral home was far greater than the city's official overall death COVID-19 toll.

Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be 26,000, based on the amount of urns being delivered and distributed across the city. Citizens on Chinese social media users have said that seven Wuhan funeral homes will likely distribute 3,500 urns per day on average from March 23 to April 4, which marks Qing Ming, the traditional tomb-sweeping festival. By that estimate, 42,000 urns would be given out in the 12-day period.

By minusing the expected deaths of roughly 16,000 in Wuhan, based on China's annual death rate over two and a half months, they estimate that the urns show that the coronavirus outbreak could have resulted in approximately 26,000 deaths. It is currently unclear, however, how many of the urns have been used.

Math based on urns, assumptions and social media isn't anything to go by. But it offers one estimation of the city's real death figure and further lends credence to the skepticism held by many of the accuracy of the Chinese government's officially reported Wuhan COVID-19 death tally.

Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas cited the urn deliveries on Sunday to accuse China of misrepresenting the impact of the virus. "A *single mortuary* in Wuhan reportedly ordered more urns in two days than the Chinese Communist Party has reported total deaths in the whole country," he tweeted. "I'm sure you're shocked by evidence of Chinese lies."

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"Cuius testiculos habeas, habeas cardia et cerebellum."

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37 minutes ago, Raithe said:

Just for the other flip side of conspiracy elements..

MSN - Wuhan Covid19 deaths may be in tens of thousands based on data of cremation urns

 

 

 

I can almost guarantee you the Chinese lied about there total deaths, this is exactly the same problem as mentioned in the article where the Chinese have been cavalier and disingenuous about the reality of how dangerous this virus can be and how easily it can be spread....anyway its too late now to address  this so lets just focus on getting through this difficult period  and afterwards these questions will be asked 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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1 hour ago, Maedhros said:

Going to be interesting to see the results in Sweden. They seem to be hinging it all on Tegnell's strategy.

We're stable as of this moment, but we don't really know how many infected we have generally speaking either, since we don't have any widespread testing at all.

Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary. - H.L. Mencken

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4 minutes ago, Hiro Protagonist said:

It’s good for science that we have a base line with a country like Sweden to test herd immunity. The rest of the world watches in anticipation for the train wreck that is to come.

I don't know what I hope for to be honest...

Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary. - H.L. Mencken

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6 minutes ago, Hiro Protagonist said:

It’s good for science that we have a base line with a country like Sweden to test herd immunity. The rest of the world watches in anticipation for the train wreck that is to come.

We hope it wont be a train wreck, Sweden is indeed helping Science and our understanding of the virus  but I am  not sure if its worth the possible and real sickness and or  deaths of thousands of Swedish citizens...I wouldn't volunteer South Africa for that  type of " understanding "  . I was watching an interview on CNN about this  and the Swedes have some of there own science around this so hopefully everything works out well for our Swedish friends who we like a lot 💕

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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well sounds like Sweden is trying to get rid of their elderly, thats that Inuit blood in them i guess

I'm the enemy, 'cause I like to think, I like to read. I'm into freedom of speech, and freedom of choice. I'm the kinda guy that likes to sit in a greasy spoon and wonder, "Gee, should I have the T-bone steak or the jumbo rack of barbecue ribs with the side-order of gravy fries?" I want high cholesterol! I wanna eat bacon, and butter, and buckets of cheese, okay?! I wanna smoke a Cuban cigar the size of Cincinnati in the non-smoking section! I wanna run naked through the street, with green Jell-O all over my body, reading Playboy magazine. Why? Because I suddenly may feel the need to, okay, pal? I've SEEN the future. Do you know what it is? It's a 47-year-old virgin sitting around in his beige pajamas, drinking a banana-broccoli shake, singing "I'm an Oscar Meyer Wiene"

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The situation in Sweden seems to be kind of misreported. While they have refrained from declaring national state of emergency, the "recommendations" are still to work remotely if at all possible, to refrain from going out, and generally go for social isolation at all times.  And while people haven't been forced to do so, public places are much emptier than usual, and Swedes aren't exactly the most gregarious people in the world, to begin with. The one exception to this are middle schools. Those are being kept open, with which I have to say I don't agree, especially when they have already announced that national exams won't be held, and all schools are already pre-emptively prepared to move to online classes, at any moment.

It should be noted as well that people in Sweden are applying for unemployment benefits in record numbers, which of course, implies that plenty of businesses are closing/stopping.

My main point of comparison is Portugal, where people are living under state of emergency. However, going by my Facebook feed, where both Portuguese and Swedish images of the streets can be found. there doesn't seem to be that much of a difference between the two in practical terms. Just yesterday there were images of a traffic jam on Lisbon's main bridge, ostensibly because people went out to enjoy the weather.

As the best point of comparison there are currently 164 cases in intensive care in Portugal, while there are 306 in Sweden.

For myself, I'm on my third week working from home, and I will remain doing that until May at least. The same is true of everyone I know, apart from a couple of nurses and doctors.

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"My hovercraft is full of eels!" - Hungarian tourist
I am Dan Quayle of the Romans.
I want to tattoo a map of the Netherlands on my nether lands.
Heja Sverige!!
Everyone should cuffawkle more.
The wrench is your friend. :bat:

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4 hours ago, Gorgon said:

Sooo, that's going away again after corona is over.

Riiiight ?

Riiight..

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

We hope it wont be a train wreck, Sweden is indeed helping Science and our understanding of the virus  but I am  not sure if its worth the possible and real sickness and or  deaths of thousands of Swedish citizens...I wouldn't volunteer South Africa for that  type of " understanding "  . I was watching an interview on CNN about this  and the Swedes have some of there own science around this so hopefully everything works out well for our Swedish friends who we like a lot 💕

We do have the same science as everyone else, it's just that Sweden hasn't closed down everything because the public health agency said that it was no point, they did say the same in Denmark for instance but for political motivations they closed down anyway. If anything, the Swedish public health agency might have to much power in making decisions accoring to some people.

43 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

The situation in Sweden seems to be kind of misreported. While they have refrained from declaring national state of emergency, the "recommendations" are still to work remotely if at all possible, to refrain from going out, and generally go for social isolation at all times.  And while people haven't been forced to do so, public places are much emptier than usual, and Swedes aren't exactly the most gregarious people in the world, to begin with. The one exception to this are middle schools. Those are being kept open, with which I have to say I don't agree, especially when they have already announced that national exams won't be held, and all schools are already pre-emptively prepared to move to online classes, at any moment.

It should be noted as well that people in Sweden are applying for unemployment benefits in record numbers, which of course, implies that plenty of businesses are closing/stopping.

My main point of comparison is Portugal, where people are living under state of emergency. However, going by my Facebook feed, where both Portuguese and Swedish images of the streets can be found. there doesn't seem to be that much of a difference between the two in practical terms. Just yesterday there were images of a traffic jam on Lisbon's main bridge, ostensibly because people went out to enjoy the weather.

As the best point of comparison there are currently 164 cases in intensive care in Portugal, while there are 306 in Sweden.

For myself, I'm on my third week working from home, and I will remain doing that until May at least. The same is true of everyone I know, apart from a couple of nurses and doctors.

Very much this, our system is based on educating people and volountary actions, but for instance; the reason we went from allowing groups of 500 to groups of 50, was because some places skirted the law by only inviting 499 people. When this was found out politicians and public health officials went "Well, **** you then, no more than 50 people". If other recommendations aren't being followed they will start implementing more stringent actions.

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Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary. - H.L. Mencken

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I'm the one guy in the office that wasn't told to stay home. So it's just me and the cat.

Where I am we're basically on the honor system. I'm thankful that no one I personally know has been hit yet, but I fear if it gets severe enough that the odds of that drop, they'll have to rethink it. And be a couple weeks behind where they should be on controlling the situation.

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"Show me a man who "plays fair" and I'll show you a very talented cheater."
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Nurses Die, Doctors Fall Sick and Panic Rises on Virus Front Lines

Over 200 health workers at a single NYC hospital have fallen ill. Unlike China, we in the 'first world' don't have the equipment to do this.

 

Edited by Bartimaeus
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How I have existed fills me with horror. For I have failed in everything - spelling, arithmetic, riding, tennis, golf; dancing, singing, acting; wife, mistress, whore, friend. Even cooking. And I do not excuse myself with the usual escape of 'not trying'. I tried with all my heart.

In my dreams, I am not crippled. In my dreams, I dance.

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54 minutes ago, ComradeMaster said:

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2020/mar/30/john-oliver-last-week-tonight-coronavirus-trump

I've heavily criticized John Oliver in the past but this was a good take.

am recognizing how tough this must be. you enjoy when oliver exposes a wouldbe autocrat like trump, but am suspecting you were less appreciative when oliver went after more experienced autocrats such as putin and xi

story from march 14

'We are all infected with football and will die for Zenit'

march 19 

Sharp increase in Moscow pneumonia cases fuels fears over coronavirus statistics
 

march 20

Doctors in Russia are accusing the government of covering up its coronavirus outbreak and denying them protective equipment

march 25

Why Is Russia’s Coronavirus Case Count So Low?

 

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"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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5 hours ago, algroth said:

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/307741-patent-troll-sues-to-pull-covid-19-tests-off-market-over-alleged-infringement

WeWork people blocking coronavirus tests through a fake patent lawsuit. Some people...

That is two weeks old, and they did drop the suit and offered 'free licensing' instead. Which, hopefully, no one took them up on as that would just validate an utterly ludicrous patent that should never in a million years have been granted in the first place (US patent 8283155, don't think the USPTO allows direct linking but its easily accessible via PATFT).

The 'patent' they were trolling was literally for any portable system which could read samples of bodily fluids and communicate with a base unit. Unsurprisingly, such systems existed well before some abject gibbering moron in the USPTO granted them their patent while drooling onto his keyboard and being amused at the magic desk accessory that made night into day if you pushed a button. They existed before they filed the patent- I used a portable system in 2001 that was as described. I don't think anyone would particularly care if the US inflicted its own brand of IP stupidity solely on itself, but as with other infamous cases like Larry Proctor's Mexican yellow bean patent and Ricetec 'inventing' Basmati Rice the- deliberately- broken patent system is used to kill competition and extort rather than protect actual inventions. Then, the US has the temerity to lecture China about respecting IP...

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48 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

*Stuff*

Not sure how many times I have to stress the fact that western democracy/capitalism and eastern authoritarian communists should compliment each other rather than antagonize each other.  If these horrible terrible men in Russia and China can help us restore restore True Democracy and help us get rid of right wing extremism in the U.S.A., I'm down.

Just like WW2, Western Powers had to make a tough decision on where to align.

Far from over indeed.

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43 minutes ago, ComradeMaster said:

Not sure how many times I have to stress the fact that western democracy/capitalism and eastern authoritarian communists should compliment each other rather than antagonize each other. 

congrats. that is exact what trump wants. trump spends a great deal o' time and effort trying to compliment putin and others. not exact the way you mean, but complimentary nevertheless. aren't you lucky?

resist is another option. resist autocrats. resit lies. resist whataboutism.

632669648.jpg?w=525

Dr. Birx Predicts U.S. Will See 100,000 to 200,000 Coronavirus Deaths in ‘Best Case Scenario’

“If we do things together well, almost perfectly, we could get in the range of 100,000 to 200,000 fatalities,”

optimal = 100-200k deaths. 

am not sure how trump can keep reselling the two weeks schtick. next two weeks were the most important time ... two weeks ago. two weeks from now is when trump believes will be a peak in deaths, in spite o' fact much o' the country is just beginning to get to the point where ny was, two weeks ago.  

one estimate not bounded by two weeks is the 50k ventilators (as many as 100k) on the way from automakers: 100 days. am not quite sure the President realizes how much difference there is 'tween fourteen and one hundred.  if the fed had pushed at the end o' january for ramped up ventilator production, the 100-day estimate would be far less temporal remote.

HA! Good Fun!

ps

case/death numbers is doubling every 3-4 days. ~3000 deaths today. look to a month from now if there isn't a drastic drop in rates. is 'bout 8 doublings? so, 768,000 deaths projected? 

Edited by Gromnir
ps numbers

"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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