Why is PoE2 not successful ?

[thelee]

Just now, Blunderboss said:

Keeep believing that

dude, with all due respect, between you and me, there's only one person actually trying to draw in actual evidence.

go get hired as a product manager for obsidian if you're so confident.

[Blunderboss]

Dude, without any respect to you : you are clueless you compare deadfire to mainstream bethesda titles like oblivion and fallout .

Edited November 12, 2019 by Blunderboss

[thelee]

10 minutes ago, Blunderboss said:

Dude, without any respect to you : you are clueless you compare deadfire to mainstream bethesda titles like oblivion and fallout .

Apparently you're unable to see the thrust of my argument and get caught up in irrelevant details, mistaking pedantry for insight.

Completion rates likely do not predict anything about the success of a game or its sequel.

You asked how people play successive games if they didn't complete prior games. I gave you anecdotal data where people (myself included) don't complete prior games but complete or jump into (yes, even direct) sequels (in another thread I mentioned mysefl not having played prior Mass Effects or Dragon Ages, but jumped into the third). This is the fundamental basis why sales expectations for sequels tend to be higher than prior games, because the mind share already exists. This is by all accounts the same assumption OBS was using for Deadfire going into Deadfire - they were expecting it to be a BG2-level hit (even then, BG2 wildly outsold BG), which colors some of the hugely expensive decisions they made (like full voice-over).

I also provided empirical data of wildly successful games (and one more "successful" game) with low completion rates.

edit - as mentioned many times, over and over, and even in backer beta updates, the fact that virtually all games have low completion rates (especially RPGs) is precisely why OBS designed their version of "new game+" the way they did [berath's blessings], where you don't actually have to beat the game to start unlocking its benefits.

From a logical perspective, it's up to the person making the claim to provide the evidence anyway, so I await you sharing  market research on how direct sequels and "non-direct" sequels are treated differently by consumers.

Edited November 12, 2019 by thelee

[Blunderboss]

You are talking about “sales predictions” when we are living in time post fact that deadfire did not sell well.

Just because you or someone else has jumped into direct sequel without playing the prequel does not mean anything, this is still off-putting to many customers. And this is just one example of issues people had with deadfire and there are plenty of those to go arround and they all add up and that results in lower sales overall, this is not that hard to understand.

[thelee]

10 minutes ago, Blunderboss said:

You are talking about “sales predictions” when we are living in time post fact that deadfire did not sell well.

I don't know if you're being willfully obtuse here. I am talking about "sales predictions" because I'm talking about the expected norm for sequels in the industry, which is in direct contravention of your argument.

 

Quote

Just because you or someone else has jumped into direct sequel without playing the prequel does not mean anything, this is still off-putting to many customers. And this is just one example of issues people had with deadfire and there are plenty of those to go arround and they all add up and that results in lower sales overall, this is not that hard to understand.

"Anecdote" is data that is not extremely meaningful (that is why I explicitly highlighted it as anecdote), but absent any other data a Bayesian can use to adjust their priors.

More relevantly, Baldur's Gate sold about 2.2 million lifetime copies. Baldur's Gate 2 sold about 3.5 million copies. Baldur's Gate 2 is basically almost as much of a direct sequel as Deadfire was. About 1.3 million players had no problem jumping into a direct sequel (and who knows what the completion rate for BG even was back then, pre-achievements).

Sales numbers are more closely guarded for modern games, but it seems that every successive entry in the main Mass Effect trilogy sold better than the previous entry.

Edited November 12, 2019 by thelee

[Blunderboss]

I get it , you played trough this game 50 or more times you think this is one of the best games ever made and everyone else who doesnt agree with you are just making things up and dont understand anything

Thats it for me keep believing whatever you want to believe

Edited November 12, 2019 by Blunderboss

[thelee]

7 minutes ago, Blunderboss said:

I get it , you played trough this game 50 or more times you think this is one of the best games ever made and everyone else who doesnt agree with you are just making things up and dont understand anything

Not 50. But yes, I do really enjoy Deadfire. But tell me, what fact am i denying that is colored by me liking this game? Please, go through this thread and any other thread discussing Deadfire sales and highlight any factual inaccuracies or logical fallacies. (Hell, I'm the one correcting people about just how low Deadfire sold--lower than they speculate.) I don't claim to know the answer of why Deadfire sold poorly, all I can do is offer my own theories, backed by whatever data I have access to. But if we're trying to explain why Deadfire sold poorly, it's going to have to be a major explanation to explain 600k+ drop (and that is only compared to PoE1 sales, like I mentioned before OBS likely expected to do even better so the drop is even larger). And sorry, as JE Sawyer pointed out, if the game's metacritic score is about as good as PoE1 (and far better than P:K, which sold much better) and audience reviews are good, nit-picky arguments about side quests or other small things are not going to answer that question about the huge sales drop.

All you've offered is conjecture that's trivial to verify as not being true. You're almost as bad as the dude chiming in "rage rage Chris Avellone rage rage"

Edited November 12, 2019 by thelee

[Blunderboss]

You do realise that all the issues with the game adds up and that causes low sales or not ? 

 

[thelee]

40 minutes ago, Blunderboss said:

You do realise that all the issues with the game adds up and that causes low sales or not ? 

feel free to put together a waterfall diagram of how all these random nit-picky things (including trivially verifiably false things) add up to 600k+ in lost sales.

 

my basic thesis is that a sales miss that large, despite glowing critical and positive audience reviews, indicates something more foundational or market-based at work.

edit - JE Sawyer and others at OBS are going to have more access to data anyway; if they can't figure it out I highly doubt anyone here will have the right answer. The recent stuff he shared also provided new info:

a) low market awareness leading up to launch
b) difficulty getting places to publish marketing pieces
c) 3x higher pre-sales rate compared to PoE1, but much lower launch day and after sales

To me that reads as "modern IE-style RtWP is too niche or too small a market" (the people who did buy were really excited and really liked it, but they weren't large enough of a market) and poe1 benefited too from being first out of the gate or having unfulfilled nostalgia sales. I like @Gromnir's take of avoiding blame on marketing because it's the easy way out (and apparently point B suggests that OBS tried, but the media just wasn't too interested in the story).

in this theory, P:K did well (despite lower critical and possibly audience scores) because it leaned harder into the nostalgia market (which Deadfire lost). D:OS2 did extremely well by being a cRPG without the baggage of RTwP (which may have been a short cultural phenomena when RTSes were also extremely popular)

Edited November 12, 2019 by thelee

[Wormerine]

2 hours ago, Blunderboss said:

Well Deadfire is direct sequel to PoE, so why people who did not finnish first game would buy the sequel , why would new player buy this game if at very intro of the game you have to choose your legacy from first game and this is not even optional, especially since this is obsidian game where story is big part of it 

ME2/3, Witcher3, Dragon Age2, Inquisiton are all story driven direct sequels asking you to import your safe if you have one. Perhaps, the import feature is a bit too indepth, but then again, someone would need to buy it to get to this point. 

I am sure there is a portion of players who played PoE1 and never finished, and decided it is not worth bothering with the sequel. I would imagine it would be more due to dislike of PoE1, rather then "Wow, PoE1 was awesome, but I never finished, so I will not try the new shiny sequel".

[primo82]

I loved PoE 1 and I thought PoE 2 was even better.  Shorter, but better.  It sucks that they may not make or may drastically change the nature of a potential sequel.

 

I grew up playing the D&D goldbox games.  And fell in love with the isometric D&D games from the late 90's and early 2000's.  I have always preferred turn based strategies over real time strategies.  I prefer the solid tactical gameplay that turn based offers.  PoE 2 had all that in spades.

 

The naval part of PoE 2 also brought back some nostalgia for the old Sid Meier's Pirates! game.  I probably spent months of my life overall playing that game and the cheesy re-release from the early 2000's because they were a blast.  It also significantly changed the typical gameplay style of these sorts of games.  BG1/2, Icewindale, PoE1, etc where you were exploring individual 'zones'.  This felt much more free almost.  More natural.

 

Anyways, probably not a chance a developer with Obsidian will see this.  I think they built the right and quite frankly an AWESOME game!  I would hate to see them throw the baby out with the bathwater...  I'm guessing there were other factors that impacted sales.  I purchased this for PC and have every intention of buying another copy for Switch so I can be a pirate on the go.  Good work with PoE2 Obsidian.  Regardless of what your analysis says...

[Hawke64]

I completed PoE1 and backed PoEII (as the badge confirms). My only issue with PoEII was the "Ultimate" update, which messed up the critical path and added Woedica's book (which I could not throw overboard). So I purchased the Obsidian Edition on GOG, because, unlike Steam, it does not force updates for single-player games when I try to launch them. And I am willing to back PoE3 when the development starts.

Though, my reasons don't anyhow explain 600k+ drop in sales. But I had not completed (or played) BG when PoE was released, so nostalgia did not affect my purchase decision, and I strongly detest DOS, because they were poorly-written (subjective opinion) multiplayer-focused sandboxes (fact) with tedious unavoidable combat (subjective opinion).

[Gromnir]

quick side note: 

am not believing obsidian were wrong to breakaway from bg2 mechanics, and in some respects, style. nostalgia were only gonna carry poe so far, particular as bg2 nostalgia were a deeply personal and fluid concept, at least it were 'mongst those providing feedback on the boards. those essential aspects o' bg2 which made bg2 liked were not uniform 'mongst consumers. worse, often times the things people liked 'bout bg2 were not necessarily part o' that title, but were nevertheless what folks remembered 'bout bg2.  as such am suspecting if obsidian recreated the ie engine as best they could, with updated graphics, and created a 2018 near clone o' bg2, many o' the bg2 fans woulda' complained 'bout the game being derivative and antiquated. an idealized bg2 were what many poe fans wanted, but am not sure what such a game would be, or if it would be successful. likes and dislikes not need be reasonable or rational. such feels is real nevertheless. 

our point is not that obsidian were wrong in their development scheme. am honest not certain how deadfire coulda' been created to have more broad appeal and reconnect with those fans who were disappointed with poe. regardless, am believing obsidian misjudged who were the likely purchasers o' deadfire.  during deadfire development, obsidian were focused on improving the gaming experience for those who purchased and enjoyed poe. the stuff obsidian worked to improve 'pon in deadfire were only gonna solidify the approval o' those who already liked poe and would further discourage those who were annoyed by poe's lack o' bg2 qualities. 

reviews were excellent for poe and sales were impressive, so am believing obsidian were reasonable in under estimatimating the number o' purchasers who were underwhelmed by poe. regardless, am believing there were a real misapprehension 'bout who wanted deadfire. 

HA! Good Fun!

[Jarmo]

Backed both of them, PoE1 for significantly more than PoE2, which I barely prepurchased.
And it took me until last week to actually start playing.

I did like PoE, but didn't love it.
Seemed to me, the differences from D&D mechanics were mostly there to be different.
The combat system, a big unintuitive confusing pile of depth, that required more investment in time to master than I was really willing to spend on it.
Kind of learned it for PoE1, but not bothering in PoE2, this time I'm just lowering the difficulty.
And all the "grants dweeel, if surrounded by enemies and bleeding from an ankle wound" magic items just add to the complexity.

A simpler intuitive system would have served me much better, and I'm betting most of the audience as well.
Might be a minority opinion amongst those who read this, but that's the majority of the minority who bought the game.

That said, I'm liking PoE2, actually more than PoE1.

[thelee]

2 hours ago, Jarmo said:

Backed both of them, PoE1 for significantly more than PoE2, which I barely prepurchased.
And it took me until last week to actually start playing.

I did like PoE, but didn't love it.
Seemed to me, the differences from D&D mechanics were mostly there to be different.
The combat system, a big unintuitive confusing pile of depth, that required more investment in time to master than I was really willing to spend on it.
Kind of learned it for PoE1, but not bothering in PoE2, this time I'm just lowering the difficulty.
And all the "grants dweeel, if surrounded by enemies and bleeding from an ankle wound" magic items just add to the complexity.

A simpler intuitive system would have served me much better, and I'm betting most of the audience as well.
Might be a minority opinion amongst those who read this, but that's the majority of the minority who bought the game.

That said, I'm liking PoE2, actually more than PoE1.

As a person who wasn't love PoE, what does Deadfire do better? Honestly curious, since before I thought Deadfire was the best crpg, I thought PoE was the best crpg, so I am Keen on other perspectives. Especially from someone whose opinion of the series improves.

[Zelse]

- absurdly poor optimization (never seen a crpg run this bad - NEVER) massive frameskipping completely ruin the "new improved animations". At times frameskipping at the start of combat is so awful i just restart because it ruined the engage. Massive frameratedecrease when playing for extended periods of time

- terrible ship - everything! Your gamelogo is the characters fighting on a ship, but everything related to the ship sucks! A LOT! The normal combat on ships is the highpoint of ****poor perfomance. Fighting on ships makes the game run at below 20 fps. I can run recent games at max settings - What. The. ****?

- The armor system is still terrible. Absolutely inexcusable. By far the worst implementation of armor i have ever seen anywhere.

- Too much "statboost/debuff bloat". Statboost talents/skills/spells are not fun. In DOS2 you slam ice on top of a guy on which he slips and falls and then shatter the ice for more damage. Dragon Age 2/3s combo system. Here you give a guy -20 to hit or boost your penetration by 2 so you can at least touch the guy at all.  What is more fun?

- Extremely weak (and short) main story. Honestly the pirate arc is written more interesting and has better quests than the adra colossus. (What happened here? All the good writers were working on tyranny?)

- Open world game with all open world problems.

- Fighting doesnt reward xp (past the first few mobs). That is a HUGE demotivational factor right there. I remember doing that one quest that starts in the tavern in the main city - a guy is missing and you get his journal from a chick upstairs. The dungeon that follows is 100% useless. None of the fights reward xp. There was not a single unique or otherwise interesting item i found during it and the quest itself rewards almost no xp as well. open world game << >> doesnt reward exploration - big yikes.

- During the early midgame there is a huge portion where the optimal way to play is to only do "go here talk to person go there quests" for like 3-5 levels. (Basically a huge portion of the game right after port maje). This entire thing has 0 replay value and there is no alternative because^ fighting and exploring doesnt reward jack**** so youre stuck doing these samey quests everytime. That alone is one of the main reasons i really dont want to replay the game. I just cba to go thru that again.

- The implementation of the bounty system is dudu. Why are there 50 different people giving bounties. Nono i get it - lore wise it makes more sense. But gameplay wise its a DISASTER! Why does something as simplistic as bounties require SOO many loading screens and walking form a to b. Booooring. 

 

Youre welcome.

Edited November 13, 2019 by Zelse

[Zelse]

17 hours ago, Wormerine said:

Any of those points though (I agree with some, and strongly disagree with others), are relevant only to people who bought And played the game. 

none of the things you mentionEd a person who didn’t play the game could have an opinion about. 

there is also another thread on precisely the same topic already

Think about it... a lot of people bought PoE1 because of the hypetrain/enjoyment they "heard" other players were having. You know if all previous buyers enjoy something THAT is the best marketing. If your buddy tells you about this amazing game that you HAVE to play - thats the best marketing.

 

There is something to be said here about the people who bought PoE1 based on the hypetrain - and who ended up not enjoying it (since PoE1 already had some of those problems like no combat xp and statboost bloat) - not coming back for PoE2 based on the name.

But yea.. if the game were better received - more people would buy it based on recommendations of peers.

PS: Critics dont know shiet. Game journalism in general is a joke these days. Including all the non-professional youtubers.

Edited November 13, 2019 by Zelse

[Boeroer]

29 minutes ago, Zelse said:

- absurdly poor optimization (never seen a crpg run this bad - NEVER) massive frameskipping completely ruin the "new improved animations". At times frameskipping at the start of combat is so awful i just restart because it ruined the engage. Massive frameratedecrease when playing for extended periods of time

- terrible ship - everything! Your gamelogo is the characters fighting on a ship, but everything related to the ship sucks! A LOT! The normal combat on ships is the highpoint of ****poor perfomance. Fighting on ships makes the game run at below 20 fps. I can run recent games at max settings - What. The. ****?

- The armor system is still terrible. Absolutely inexcusable. By far the worst implementation of armor i have ever seen anywhere.

- Too much "statboost/debuff bloat". Statboost talents/skills/spells are not fun. In DOS2 you slam ice on top of a guy on which he slips and falls and then shatter the ice for more damage. Dragon Age 2/3s combo system. Here you give a guy -20 to hit or boost your penetration by 2 so you can at least touch the guy at all.  What is more fun?

- Extremely weak (and short) main story. Honestly the pirate arc is written more interesting and has better quests than the adra colossus. (What happened here? All the good writers were working on tyranny?)

- Open world game with all open world problems.

- Fighting doesnt reward xp (past the first few mobs). That is a HUGE demotivational factor right there. I remember doing that one quest that starts in the tavern in the main city - a guy is missing and you get his journal from a chick upstairs. The dungeon that follows is 100% useless. None of the fights reward xp. There was not a single unique or otherwise interesting item i found during it and the quest itself rewards almost no xp as well. open world game << >> doesnt reward exploration - big yikes.

- During the early midgame there is a huge portion where the optimal way to play is to only do "go here talk to person go there quests" for like 3-5 levels. (Basically a huge portion of the game right after port maje). This entire thing has 0 replay value and there is no alternative because^ fighting and exploring doesnt reward jack**** so youre stuck doing these samey quests everytime. That alone is one of the main reasons i really dont want to replay the game. I just cba to go thru that again.

- The implementation of the bounty system is dudu. Why are there 50 different people giving bounties. Nono i get it - lore wise it makes more sense. But gameplay wise its a DISASTER! Why does something as simplistic as bounties require SOO many loading screens and walking form a to b. Booooring. 

 

Youre welcome.

[Blunderboss]

There are 2 opinions on this forum that does not matter at all thats Boeroer and Thelee’s these guys clearly have **** taste since they keep playing average deadfire game for 55 times, and they keep derailing every topic with their ilussionary world beliefs where deadfire is the best game ever created. It isnt wake the **** up. Im glad you two loved this game so much that people saying truth about what this game did wrong butthurts you two so deeply. However it is clear that excluding 50 fanboys on this forum majority of players thinks deadfire is average or below average and sales represent it perfectly. I bet obsidian is happy that thelee and boeroer love this game so much sadly they cant buy another half of million coppies so there wont be deadfire 3

[bugarup]

13 minutes ago, Blunderboss said:

Yak yak yuk

"Dude argues numbers and calculations with Thelee and Boeroer, congratulates himself for winning all the arguments" 

[Boeroer]

15 hours ago, Blunderboss said:

There are 2 opinions on this forum that does not matter at all thats Boeroer and Thelee’s these guys clearly have **** taste since they keep playing average deadfire game for 55 times, and they keep derailing every topic with their ilussionary world beliefs where deadfire is the best game ever created. It isnt wake the **** up. Im glad you two loved this game so much that people saying truth about what this game did wrong butthurts you two so deeply. However it is clear that excluding 50 fanboys on this forum majority of players thinks deadfire is average or below average and sales represent it perfectly. I bet obsidian is happy that thelee and boeroer love this game so much sadly they cant buy another half of million coppies so there wont be deadfire 3

You seem to have problems with reading comprehension or you are making stuff up in your mind.

Never did I say or even think that Deadfire is the greatest game ever created (that's obviously FTL). I also don't think that I (nor @thelee) am derailing any topic which sincerely wishes to discuss things in a decent manner. What @thelee and I (and others) are constantly trying to do is to separate strong subjective opinions from actual facts and reasonable arguments. You can see me agreeing on certain things that critical voices post here. I'm not a blind fanatic that defends every design decision that was made with Deadfire or PoE.

What I don't agree on is ranting like a 5-year-old  and presenting ones tastes and opinions as facts or the will of the majority (unless you have proof of that - then it's fine). If I see a totally exaggerated statement in this forums or some opinions presented as facts I feel the need to object. Because I think about new players coming in, reading all that hysterical whining, teeth gnashing and loathing crap and then getting the wrong impression. Why would people want to ruin the experience of others with their toxic views and child-rages-in-candy-shop-because-there's-no-popcorn communication?

I even was one of the most harsh critics of Deadfire when its beta came out (I can necro some threads for you if you wish). I voted ship combat down so hard at release it sank all your sloops immediately. I said the pirate theme will not be for everybody and I state until today that the in-game explanations are bad. But at the same time I always try to deliver sound arguments and constructive criticism - not only mimimi and ranting. I'm trying to seperate the valid criticism from the nonsense. Not only for me, but for other readers as well. Does that always turn out perfectly well and resonable? Maybe not, I'm only orlan after all...

For example the post from Zelse above contains some valid (yet exaggerated) points (like Neketaka quest running, armor system) and some nonsense (like fights not giving XP is a problem) - but since it's brought forth in such an immature manner it's hard to take it seriously - except by guys who also feel that hot burning rage inside them because Deadfire wasn't likeable for them (and we can't let Obsidian get away with this it seems).

Like your post basically. You seem to get angry because we argue and discuss but I won't be convinced by your self-perceived "truth"- even if you use foul language? I mean how dare I? Boeroer's objecting me despite me saying f*ck and sh*t all the time, that evil devil! Or what's the point exactly?

Present your arguments in a reasonable manner and seperate your taste and opinions from facts. It's not that hard. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't voice your taste and opinon, it only means you shouldn't present them as truth or fact.

All of what you said above is silly and untrue. Everybody else's taste is obviously always sh!tty (rule of nature), I def. played Deadfie more than 55 times (you noob), I don't derail topics because I answer to posts in the most fitting manner (like - without exception, every time), I only get butthurt when I eat no fibres for a looong period of time... and I guess Obsidian doesn't even know that I exist. @thelee I'm not so sure about - since he send in his ultimate run for revision... he's on their radar now.

Edited November 13, 2019 by Boeroer

[wih]

10 minutes ago, Boeroer said:

... and I guess Obsidian doesn't even know that I exist.

Haha. Obsidian not reading their forums could probably explain why they don't know what was wrong with Deadfire

Edited November 13, 2019 by wih

[Boeroer]

It is true: it feels a bit awkward that so few of them are participating here. But as I explained earlier this used to be a very toxic place for devs to be.

Another reason why I think that objecting nonsense and bad behavior is important.

At the same time I think it's impossible to really factually determine why Deadfire failed. Reading this forum or not. We all have our theories and maybe every one of those does apply and it was a combination - who knows. Difficult to react to that as a company.

Edited November 13, 2019 by Boeroer

[wih]

That was a joke. The only way for them to not know that you exist, is if they don't read their forums at all.

[Boeroer]

2 hours ago, Zelse said:

- terrible ship - everything! [...]

- The armor system is still terrible. [...]

- Extremely weak (and short) main story. Honestly the pirate arc is written more interesting and has better quests than the adra colossus. [...]

- Open world game with all open world problems.

- During the early midgame there is a huge portion where the optimal way to play is to only do "go here talk to person go there quests" for like 3-5 levels. [...]

- The implementation of the bounty system [...]

Take away the outbursts of angry Kevin Highperbowl and I can agree on some of the statements made.