Dungeons & Dragons is back with record sales

[no1fanboy]

http://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dungeons-dragons-biggest-sales-year-2017

 

Obsidian you need to make some D&D games with D&D Lore using your new POE Technology

 

Pretty please

Edited July 8, 2018 by no1fanboy

[gkathellar]

So this is actually a business discussion, not an, "Obsidian you would make me happy if you did this," discussion. I'm just gonna bullet point this.

• "D&D video games" is an IP license, and iirc, it is either still owned by Atari or else has defaulted back to Hasbro. This was actually a whole big thing in PoE1's development, and is perhaps Obsidian's strongest reason to stay the hell away from something like this: PoE is their IP, which they can develop at their leisure and maintain full control of. A new D&D game would bring money and resources, but there's a reasonably compelling argument to be made that Obsidian pursued that business model for over a decade with little to show for it beyond a good reputation.
• If the current IP owner wants to make a new D&D game, they will reach out to people of their choice. History indicates that would be Bioware, but I doubt EA would be interested. Obsidian would probably not be on the short list unless the publisher specifically wanted a BG2-style isometric. Personally, Larian would be my first pick even in that case.
• However, I say "if" because the last D&D game to do fantastically was NWN, or maybe NWN2 or DDO if you squint. Shameful as it is that there was never a successful adaptation of 4E, which would have been a great fit, D&D games have not been a lucrative venture recently, and 5E is poorly suited to computer conversion for a number of reasons. This brings us to ...
• Hasbro's marketing strategy for D&D since the beginning of fifth edition has been interesting, and has involved heavy cutbacks on the creation of actual content as well as quality investment (by this I mean that 5e has had visible reductions in printing quality, art direction, staff size, digital support, etc), and an emphasis on streaming and "D&D as lifestyle" marketing. Consider, also, Hasbro's failure to capitalize on key aspects of the TTRPG market, namely PDF distribution, OGL and equivalents, and online community building. This suggests that the main goal for D&D at this point in time is to make it saleable, which makes a kind of sense - even now, D&D is one of Hasbro's weakest returns-on-investment, and in spite of being godawful Pathfinder continues to eat a large portion of the market that D&D tends to cultivate.
• tl;dr Obsidian could only make a D&D game if the current license owner let them, and there are ample reasons not to expect anything of the sort.

Edited July 8, 2018 by gkathellar

[no1fanboy]

That is a serious amount of talk and opinion.

 

That link i just posted kind of contradicts what you are saying about d&d not performing. They have turned it around it is selling well agian after a long down turn. Record breaking well.

 

I would love for them to make a crpg like bg2.

 

Bg2 sold 5 million copies.

 

POE1 sold 1.2 million

 

Deadfire so far 250,000

 

Thats a pretty big carrot

Edited July 8, 2018 by no1fanboy

[Boeroer]

If I understood it correctly he was talking about "D&D Video Games" and not the Pen & Paper version (only int the last part). Those are two different licenses with two different license owners (atm Atari?). What you linked is about the Pen & Paper version. But even if it sells better than ever that doesn't mean that it's not still a weak return on investment.

 

I have no idea about return on investment when it comes to D&D though. I like that they sell more because that also means that this hobby is not dying out too soon which also means we will see more CRPGs - I guess.

Edited July 8, 2018 by Boeroer

[no1fanboy]

Yes clearly.

 

That momentum gained in that area is promising for future prospects for a new big budget video game. This is what i meant.

 

I thought d&d was done and in ruin. I had no idea they where doing record sales.

 

Hence why i am optimistic about a new big budget viseo game now

[Takkik]

I would love a new Neverwinter Nights game/toolset with d&d5. But using other IP is always tricky.

 

Obsidian have 2 major flaws in my opinion :

 

- Pillars lore is still new, and heavly influenced by D&D. So it's new without be that new. The flaw is that Obsidian don't build enought their world/IP. Tyranny & Pillars should share the same world. If they build the lore trhough differents games that could settle it in the mind of the player, give it more weight like the good old forgotten realms (or even planescape since lot of content of FR games rely on planes things).

Expanding existing lore/world through different games that explore different gameplay/facet of it would be great.

 

- Game ruleset : Each game they reinvent the wheel. Each game is the same loop/process of balancing etc... until the game feel right. And then they launch a new game with different rules that is completly unbalanced... They should take the time to create a RPG system, modulable enough to be adapted to different univers if they want and only tough it a little when needed. That would save TONE of time to both dev & players.

 

 

On a side note, I would love if one day cRPG stop separating combat encounter from social&exploration. I would love to be able to charm someone, or use my rogue invisibility/escape to infiltrate (Dishonored style). DOS2, in my memory is stuck in a middle ground, because you can use your movement ability for exploration but active abilities are still 100% tailored for combat in mind.

An unified gameplay will be a great advancement for RPG. Active abilities as in DOS or PoE is more attractive in a game, using an ability to charm/persuade feel more active than a passive check of a skill value. And you can apply combat rules, like defense, resistance etc...

[no1fanboy]

I am certian if obsidian did a new game using deadfire technology with forgotten realms and d&d lore it would easily do millions of copies with the right marketing.

[Night Stalker]

Bg2 sold 5 million copies.

 

Where do you have that number from? Do you know over what period it sold 5 million copies? Because, irrespective of BG2 qualities, it was released around 18 years ago, and there have been numerous rereleases of it since then.

 

 

Tyranny & Pillars should share the same world.

 

PoE as an IP is owned by Obsidian, while Tyranny is owned by Paradox, so that is not going to happen (and honestly I would prefer for them to be seperate).

Edited July 8, 2018 by Night Stalker

[gkathellar]

That link i just posted kind of contradicts what you are saying about d&d not performing. They have turned it around it is selling well agian after a long down turn. Record breaking well.

 

I didn't say it's not performing, I said it's not performing relative to Hasbro's other products. Take a moment to think about Hasbro's other IP: Nerf, My Little Pony, Transformers, a ton of classic board games like Monopoly and Axis and Allies, a huge cross-section of kids' brands including Tonka, and the king of all nerd culture franchises, Magic: the Gathering.

 

D&D is a drop in a very, very large bucket. WotC only bought it in the first place because the company president at the time wanted to, personally, and it was generally seen as a poor decision. WotC did an amazing job of turning a dying game into an incredibly healthy and robust one by adding high production values (I have a professional book designer in my family who has called my 3.5 books "beautiful"), a well-curated forum community, digital distribution, and above all the OGL. Certainly it wasn't a giant cash cow, but it was making money consistently and well. Also, you know, NWN and NWN2 and DDO, all of which did pretty well.

 

Even so, 4th edition happened largely as an attempt to centralize the brand, institute a subscription model, and shake off what corporate perceived as the hangers-on of OGL, because while D&D 3.5 was an amazing success with respect to TTRPGs, it was not an amazing success as a Hasbro property. Note that during this period, Hasbro made a real effort to make 4E the "correct" edition of D&D, and stopped marketing just about anything tied to earlier versions. This was them attempting to build the game into something more comparable to MtG.

 

After patience with 4E ran out for reasons too complex for the scope of this post, 5th happened, and there is ample evidence that 5th has been an effort first and foremost to build the brand. This is why a significant portion of the article you linked is them talking about TV spots and streamers and celebrities, while the book quality continues to be trash, WotC still has no official D&D forums, and the number of permanent employees working on D&D is, afaik, still less than 20.

 

Bg2 sold 5 million copies.

 

POE1 sold 1.2 million

 

Deadfire so far 250,000

 

Uh ... so BG2 has been out for 18 years and was the followup to an absolutely enormous sleeper hit. That kind of makes comparisons meaningless without placing them on a timeline. In the first three months after release, it moved 200,000 units. In the first two years after release it moved 1.5m. By five years it manged 2m. This is roughly comparable with NWN1, down to the length of time it took to establish the sales. IIRC, the computer gaming market grew in between BG2 and NWN1, so the fact that NWN1 didn't outperform its predecessor could itself be seen as a bad sign. It would be absurd to do so, mind, but absurd in a distinctly, "I have an MBA, of course I know how to business!" sort of way. (The biggest counterpoint is that NWN1's sales only started to drop following the release of Warcraft 3, and really what happens when you compete with Blizzard? You lose, that's what happens.)

 

Incidentally, that actually means that Deadfire has been doing about as well as BG2 and NWN1 so far!

 

Now compare the more recent D&D games: Daggerdale, Neverwinter, and Sword Coast Legends. None of these have performed well, and so it's easy (if stupid), to conclude that D&D video games simply don't sell these days. Truisms like that are easy to overcome in a genre, these days, due to crowdfunding. They are considerably harder to overcome with respects to IP, and that's why we're getting Bloodstained, and not another proper Castlevania.

 

My first point here is not that a modern D&D isometric couldn't be successful (although personally I think 5e is the worst edition of D&D in terms of making adaptations to the digital format), it's that Hasbro has no reason to think it would be. My second point is that Hasbro is simply not committed to developing anything about D&D other than its brand visibility. Remember, this is the company that is so afraid of their product looking easy to pirate that they initially refused to distribute PDFs of their games (which, incidentally, meant piracy was the only was to get PDFs, almost certainly costing them sales), and after years of complaints only finally concluded that they would distribute their gamebooks over Steam.

 

Steam.

 

If I understood it correctly he was talking about "D&D Video Games" and not the Pen & Paper version. Those are two different licenses with two different license owners (atm). What you linked is about the Pen & Paper version.

 

To some degree. The two are connected, in practice - the Pen & Paper version is doing well, but the nature of its success combined with the general failures of non-retro-D&D games over the last decade means that no one has a particular incentive to produce NWN3.

Edited July 8, 2018 by gkathellar

[Night Stalker]

Remember, this is the company that is so afraid of their product looking easy to pirate that they initially refused to distribute PDFs of their games (which, incidentally, meant piracy was the only was to get PDFs, almost certainly costing them sales), and after years of complaints only finally concluded that they would distribute their gamebooks over Steam.

 

Steam.

 

Wat.

 

Seriously? This is so stupid a choice that I am at a loss for words.

[gkathellar]

 

Remember, this is the company that is so afraid of their product looking easy to pirate that they initially refused to distribute PDFs of their games (which, incidentally, meant piracy was the only was to get PDFs, almost certainly costing them sales), and after years of complaints only finally concluded that they would distribute their gamebooks over Steam.

 

Steam.

 

Wat.

 

Seriously? This is so stupid a choice that I am at a loss for words.

 

Yeah. The funny thing is that they're still selling the first through fourth edition PDFs on DriveThruRPG, just not 5th.

 

Again, my theory is that they're trying to get the brand into good enough shape that they can sell it. I'm not sure who would buy it, though.

[SonicMage117]

It makes sense...

 

Steam is a great sales platform for anything digital. Many people here on this forum don't yet realize that Steam sells all kinds of digital product and not just games. Soundtracks, sound editing apps, audio books, Steam has done very well with all these and more. Wouldn't make much sense to release such a thing on GoG or Wal-Mart. Maybe someone who doesn't know much about these things will disagree with me by some crazy excuse, who knows.

[Zelse]

A perfect adaptation of D&D is weird... besides the licensing issue there are so many things that are annoying to do in video games.

Youd have to let characters start at around level 3-5 so they dont get randomly 1 shot, high end DnD is a joke where whoever brings more cheese wins.. life drain, instant death, petrification so many annoying mechanics. Not sure how the latest version handles those bur realistically there is no reason to create a identical copy of DnD just to call it DnD if you can do basically the same thing with your own system while cutting all the annoying crap that every sane party cuts out anyway.

 

Most of what makes Pen and Paper great is not the system itself but the people you play with. The DnD system itself doesnt translate all that well to video games. Combat in BG2 past the early/midgame was just stupid. Instakill liches, reflect beholders, stacking immunities against life drain / stat drain... boring, cheesy and mandatory. Stacking your invulnerabilities and piercing the enemies mantle, super duper armor , antispellreflect bubbles..

 

The only thing a "DnD" game would bring is brand recognition, other than that youd have to apply "house rules" to make the game actually fun.

Edited July 8, 2018 by Zelse

[Incendax]

Sadly, it would probably be Larian. They have already cooperated with Wizards/Hasbro to make Lost Mines of the Phaldelver using the Original Sin 2 engine.

[Zelse]

Sadly, it would probably be Larian. They have already cooperated with Wizards/Hasbro to make Lost Mines of the Phaldelver using the Original Sin 2 engine.

I just googled that but as it seems it never came to be? Ist that a solo adventure type DM mode thing or is it only MP with the DM micromanaging stuff?

 

Does it actually exist? Where did you find it?

[gkathellar]

Sadly, it would probably be Larian. They have already cooperated with Wizards/Hasbro to make Lost Mines of the Phaldelver using the Original Sin 2 engine.

 

They're a logical pick. They've worked extensively on multiplayer with DM support, and they've been working gradually on their campaign editor technology. In terms of skill set, they bring a lot to the table for what you'd probably want, which is honestly less BG2 and more NWN.

 

Obsidian has, of course, the writing and worldbuilding chops, and those matter more to me, personally. But if I were a business bigwig? Larian would definitely be my first pick.

 

It makes sense...

 

Steam is a great sales platform for anything digital. Many people here on this forum don't yet realize that Steam sells all kinds of digital product and not just games. Soundtracks, sound editing apps, audio books, Steam has done very well with all these and more. Wouldn't make much sense to release such a thing on GoG or Wal-Mart. Maybe someone who doesn't know much about these things will disagree with me by some crazy excuse, who knows.

 

It makes to sell PDFs on Steam, sure. It's a platform like any other, even if it's a poorly-curated mess that sells licenses rather than property.

 

It makes considerably less sense to only sell PDFs on Steam, while failing to put 5e up on DriveThruRPG, or hell, having their own digital storefront (like plenty of mid-sized TTRPG companies, like Pelgrane or Evil Hat). And it makes even less sense to have PDFs of 1e-4e up on DriveThruRPG while failing to put 5e up on it.

 

But what do I know? As someone who disagrees with you, I've been automatically relegated to the category of someone who doesn't know much about these things.

Edited July 8, 2018 by gkathellar

[kanisatha]

The D&D and Forgotten Realms digital licenses are now completely back under Wizards of the Coast's control. Atari has nothing to do with anything D&D anymore. And WotC has said they will never again repeat the mistake of what they did with Atari in terms of losing their control of the license.

 

An article interviewing Chris Cox (new head of WotC) back in December 2017 (I believe) had him saying that between now and 2023 WotC has plans for over a dozen new digital games using the D&D license. I can't recall the exact details, but their focus appeared to be on mobile platforms and consoles and not the PC.

[Manveru123]

I'm not expecting any decent cRPG. I feel like some kind of console slasher is more likely, because those sell better.

[gkathellar]

I'm not expecting any decent cRPG. I feel like some kind of console slasher is more likely, because those sell better.

 

I'm not convinced they actually do, but certainly that's the conventional wisdom.

[SonicMage117]

It makes to sell PDFs on Steam, sure. It's a platform like any other, even if it's a poorly-curated mess that sells licenses rather than property.

 

It makes considerably less sense to only sell PDFs on Steam, while failing to put 5e up on DriveThruRPG, or hell, having their own digital storefront (like plenty of mid-sized TTRPG companies, like Pelgrane or Evil Hat). And it makes even less sense to have PDFs of 1e-4e up on DriveThruRPG while failing to put 5e up on it.

 

But what do I know? As someone who disagrees with you, I've been automatically relegated to the category of someone who doesn't know much about these things.

Not really.

 

You're not looking at the bigger picture, you're focusing on something small that you don't like just because you have an issue with it. You're really over exaggerating it as people on the net tend to do.

 

Steam would be perfect for it, obviously these people aren't stupid and I know you're not smarter than them. They're going to do where bussiness is best fir them. Where in the world wouod you rather have them sell it on? Google play? Barnes and Nobles digital? You obviously have no idea of how things wrong for these formats, nor the marketing and how to drive sales for it.

[Thibax]

Obsidian could make games of: D&D, X-Men, Justice League, Saint Seiya, Yu Yu Hakusho, Sailor Moon, Magic Knight Rayearth and more.   

 

If Obsidian could bring Breath of Fire back? 

 

Well, a D&D souls type game, I would like to see too. All classes, races, feats and spells. 

 

Obsidian, talk with Marvel, DC, Wizard, Capcom and  Bandai Namco!

 

Dreaming is free. 

Edited July 8, 2018 by Thibax

[Night Stalker]

Where in the world wouod you rather have them sell it on?

DriveThruRPG as they are a site whose primary purpose is to sell PDFs of Pen and Paper role-playing game?

 

They are my go-to place for RPG PDF's, and the same for my gaming group.

[Manveru123]

 

I'm not expecting any decent cRPG. I feel like some kind of console slasher is more likely, because those sell better.

 

I'm not convinced they actually do, but certainly that's the conventional wisdom.

 

Dragon Age is a good example. Went from a brilliant cRPG to hot garbage just to cater to console audience.

 

Also even bad games sell like hot potatoes on Switch and no one makes cRPG games on that.

[Zelse]

Dragon Age is a good example. Went from a brilliant cRPG to hot garbage just to cater to console audience.

 

 

Also even bad games sell like hot potatoes on Switch and no one makes cRPG games on that.

 

Here is what happened with DA:

 

1. Outstanding story, solid combat for its time.

 

2. Big step forward in the combat gameplay (less passives, more actives, cross class combos) but moderate fail on story and HUGE fail on character design in particular (basically foreshadowing Mass Effect 3). Literally the entire cast of companions is fairly unlikeable (except Varric, guess who got to come back in the sequel.. exactly).

 

Lots of very valid complaints about reuse of the same assets over and over (dungeons) and a fairly bland city.

 

3. Extremely butthurt developers went full ape**** on world building while neglecting pretty much everything else. Full open world MMO disaster. Companion AI was supposed to be replaced to be easier to use by stupid people but unfortunately, not only did they remove the custom AI sets but they also forgot to replace the companion AI entirely (because as mentioned above the only people working on DA3 were doing only world building all the time because of how butthurt they were), instead they coded 3 lines for it and created the stupidest, lowest IQ companions in the history of video games.

Edited July 9, 2018 by Zelse

[AFA]

I'm not expecting any decent cRPG. I feel like some kind of console slasher is more likely, because those sell better.

 

Probably an open-world Witcher 3 knockoff is more likely, as devs always follow trends.

 

Any game that is worth anything is going to come out on both PC and consoles, a dev isn't going to cut their potential audience in half because of the PC Master Race.

 

Now, a D&D flavored Dragon's Dogma would be freaking awesome