Politics Thread: Edge of Seventeen

[Drowsy Emperor]

The whole poisoning story was poor from the start. Accusations were leveled before any serious inquiry, and that already casts serious doubt on any subsequently shown 'results'.

 

Its propaganda angle was weakas well. No one cares if the Russians truly killed a man who turned on his own country, in either the West or in Russia itself.

 

If Snowden chokes on a mushroom in a few years, you can't seriously expect the Russians to get riled up over it.

 

'CIA using biological weapons on our soil, this type of mushroom only grows in Arkansas!' grumble grumble Сука grumble

Edited April 5, 2018 by Drowsy Emperor

[Malcador]

Well, killing via mushroom is too subtle for the CIA, they'd probably bribe some Chechens to go level his entire block or something similar.

[213374U]

Its propaganda angle was weakas well. No one cares if the Russians truly killed a man who turned on his own country, in either the West or in Russia itself.

 

Eh, I don't know about that. Extrajudicial killings with total disregard for collateral damage are always a big hit. While most people probably have other things to worry about, just about anyone you ask is going to agree that publicly murdering your citizens—"traitorous" or not—via nerve agent is a big no-no.

[Chilloutman]

 

Its propaganda angle was weakas well. No one cares if the Russians truly killed a man who turned on his own country, in either the West or in Russia itself.

 

Eh, I don't know about that. Extrajudicial killings with total disregard for collateral damage are always a big hit. While most people probably have other things to worry about, just about anyone you ask is going to agree that publicly murdering your citizens—"traitorous" or not—via nerve agent is a big no-no.

 

 

[Drowsy Emperor]

 

Its propaganda angle was weakas well. No one cares if the Russians truly killed a man who turned on his own country, in either the West or in Russia itself.

 

Eh, I don't know about that. Extrajudicial killings with total disregard for collateral damage are always a big hit. While most people probably have other things to worry about, just about anyone you ask is going to agree that publicly murdering your citizens—"traitorous" or not—via nerve agent is a big no-no.

 

 

Oh I'm not saying anyone likes it (even if it could be conclusively proven), I'm just saying that most people tend to recognize that these games are played on a higher level, involve a lot of lying on everyone's part and that any accusations end up as pure politics, rather than a genuine attempt to handle things in a legally transparent manner. 

In that sense, it comes down to pure propaganda, and when truth is a matter of which team you're rooting for, a rational person is not likely to be swayed much by anyone's version of events -  hence it's not very good as propaganda, except as the daily 'five minutes of hate', or preaching to the choir.  

Edited April 5, 2018 by Drowsy Emperor

[Bartimaeus]

Weren't like 44 other people exposed to the agent as well?

[HoonDing]

Boris is a dolt.

[Zoraptor]

I think I saw something about them having difficulty identifying the specific chemical, or something. In any case, it's supposed to be something that only Russia would know how to make.

 

It definitely isn't something that only the Russians know how to make as (1) it was supposedly a soviet developed weapon, and the USSR is now a bunch of countries not just Russia and (2) that isn't really how chemical synthesis works- if you know someone synthesised a chemical structure then you know you can synthesise it too (near literally QED; someone has already made it) and if you're looking for a defence to a nerve agent there is a very high likelihood you will have made it, to test it. Admitting that is, of course, not something you want to do. Knowing what a compound is and does almost always makes it a lot easier to synthesise than the initial discovery and synthesis, that's one of the main reasons for drug patents, a chemical that might take a decade to develop can usually be made by a plant in India or China within months or even weeks of release. That's also why claims that nerve agents have to be governmental are difficult to support, may be true for novichoks but the sarins and vxs of the world are basically organophosphate fly sprays that kill people instead, so long as they don't have to keep effective for a long storage time (which as chemical weapons they have to, of course) they're 'easy' to make at least chemically speaking.

 

They likely know the exact chemical used, novichoks is their only name, they don't have short names like 'sarin' or 'vx' and the scientific names for complex chemicals may take 5 minutes to say so just saying novochok family doesn't imply they don't know the exact formula. It is possible though that they didn't get enough pure sample (since they seemed to take ages finding where it was applied) for MS etc, if they had to use samples from the victims they might not know the formula since the chemical would have been metabolised which involves the chemical being broken down into 'common' bits.

 

The whole poisoning story was poor from the start. Accusations were leveled before any serious inquiry, and that already casts serious doubt on any subsequently shown 'results'.

 

Its propaganda angle was weakas well.

The poisoning story is inherently quite strong, they haven't done a very good job of selling it convincingly at all though since reflex action is to exaggerate/ lie. Boris lying and covering it up was utterly moronic. Propaganda, well it isn't convincing to those who aren't already convinced and like most propaganda can easily be run in reverse to make it look like (sometimes suspicious) posturing. UK security council person saying that Russia should be excluded from investigations as they were an interested party that would prejudge innocence? Bye bye all UK, US and other experts from countries that prejudged guilt by expelling diplomats then, logically. Only 6 countries backed Russians experts to go on the OPCW mission? Well, you did little better since the majority abstained. 26 countries expelled diplomats? 170 odd didn't, that's a pathetic 12% backing you...

 

No one cares if the Russians truly killed a man who turned on his own country, in either the West or in Russia itself.

 

If Snowden chokes on a mushroom in a few years, you can't seriously expect the Russians to get riled up over it.

Lots of people care, some even 100% genuinely so, since other people were effected. But a lot of those people certainly would not care if the UK had whacked Kim Philby and some innocent Russians had died or been injured, that would have been realpolitik and getting a traitor. And a fair few would only care if it was done by the Russians to 'nice' people and wouldn't care about Israeli Mossad murdering innocent people in, say, Lillehammer, or the French DGSE murdering an innocent guy here.

[Guard Dog]

Nothing to worry over here right? https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/homeland-security-searchable-database_us_5ac7f41de4b07a3485e4bb1d

 

Every step towards tyranny seemed so small, so innocuous. George W Bush and the Republicans in Congress create the DHS to keep us "safe". Obama and the Democrats in Congress turn it into a weapon  against American citizens. Now Trump is taking to first steps into a full on Orwellian dystopia. The next President will not doubt start making people "disappear". If they are not already doing it.

[Zoraptor]

The poisoning story is inherently quite strong, they haven't done a very good job of selling it convincingly at all though since reflex action is to exaggerate/ lie.

Should also have mentioned that Sergei Skripal woke from his coma, coincidentally, a day after his daughter was recorded telling her cousin that he was resting comfortably instead of in a coma, and that recovery is inconsistent with the evidence of the US resident ex soviet expert (Mirzayanov) who claimed to have worked on novichoks and said the effects were permanent and recovery would not happen.

 

The cousin also said it was food poisoning, not a nerve agent. While I'd be skeptical of that claim coming from any 'proper' knowledge I do know of one recent case involving wild boar meat (presumed, never fully proven) which had very similar initial symptoms, presumed permanent effects then recovery over a similar time frame for which no cause has ever been identified. People involved were utterly random Indian immigrants to NZ, so no chance of it being any sort of state action. Food poisoning also would not be consistent with other people getting very sick just by contacting the Skripals, but that isn't exactly consistent with CW either*.

 

Said cousin has been blocked from visiting her, and presumably she isn't going to get another phone call any time soon. Shame the cousin didn't ask if she really didn't want consular assistance, to clear that issue up. Let's be frank though, if the situation were reversed it would definitively be stated as the dastardly Russians kidnapping a British citizen and denying access and communication to cover things up.

 

*to whit, a nerve agent smeared on a doorknob seems unlikely to effect dozens of people mostly around a park bench far away, if you have enough on the victims to cause that much effect to bystanders it seems extraordinary that they survived a presumably exponentially higher dose while pets survived at their house, and if you go back to footage of, say, the Khan Sheikoun aftermath pretty much every single first responder has no CW or other protection at all to the sarin yet were not effected. Last one might be a problem with the KS incident and similar ones (eg Douma** 2013) rather than with the Salisbury incident though, most of the accusations of staging those attacks were precisely because the responders showed no effects.

 

**Latest one being reported today is bollocks though, even SOHR says they suffocated because the building on top collapsed (imo more likely, a fire or thermobarics ate the oxygen) not chlorine. Still, a really crappy way to die either way.

Edited April 8, 2018 by Zoraptor

[Drowsy Emperor]

Chemical warfare is not all it's cracked up to be, apparently.

 

Either that or he's Rasputin.

 

Or, you know, they were bull****ting all along. What a joke. Wakes from a military grade nerve agent. 

 

Edited April 8, 2018 by Drowsy Emperor

[HoonDing]

ANIMAL ASSAD

 

Edited April 8, 2018 by HoonDing

[Zoraptor]

If anyone was going to post that video...

 

Chemical warfare is not all it's cracked up to be, apparently.

 

Dunno, it's wonderful for hysteria.

 

If i see one more acritical report today which says that you can mix chlorine and sarin then drop them in a barrel bomb from a sukhoi I will... melodramatically roll my eyes at the screen.

[Malcador]

Seems a bit weird for Assad to use gas now of all times.

[Agiel]

Seems a bit weird for Assad to use gas now of all times.

 

I don't think it's weird at all. It's difficult to imagine that when the dust starts to settle that the Assad regime will be any less repressive than it was prior to 2011, and plenty of reasons to believe it will be even more. Particularly when the response from the international community is fairly muted, the messaging of Assad's outward denials are not mutually exclusive to the implicit message for domestic consumption, that being something to the effect of: "In the future I will resort to overwhelming force to suppress anything that even begins to resemble a revolt. And if you think anyone will come to stop me, then you need only look to the international response thus far to dispel that notion."

Edited April 9, 2018 by Agiel

[Malcador]

Well, it got a Syrian airbase hit by some missiles (or at least the timing indicates). I guess that is probably ineffective fire but it did kill some personnel.

[Agiel]

It seems to have been for the most part a geopolitical Kabuki dance. The damage had largely been mitigated by giving the Russians advanced warning, who subsequently passed this to the Syrians so they could move anything of value from the pre-planned aimpoints, while giving the larger public the impression that Trump would be firm where Obama would not. The Russian MoD's claims of a 50%+ failure rate for the Tomahawks seem to have largely been for domestic consumption to further downplay the strike and give justification for not being particularly reciprocal to the US-led coalition (and not just because the balance of combat power in Syria is far less in Russia's favour than they'd like to admit). We saw the same effect when those Vagner mercenaries got beaten back by the coalition a few months ago (there was even whispers that their decision not to interfere with strikes against them may have been the top brass' way of taking the PMCs down a notch).

Edited April 9, 2018 by Agiel

[Zoraptor]

The Russian MoD's claims of a 50%+ failure rate for the Tomahawks seem to have largely been for domestic consumption to further downplay the strike and give justification for not being particularly reciprocal to the US-led coalition (and not just because the balance of combat power in Syria is far less in Russia's favour than they'd like to admit). We saw the same effect when those Vagner mercenaries got beaten back by the coalition a few months ago (there was even whispers that their decision not to interfere with strikes against them may have been the top brass' way of taking the PMCs down a notch).

 

Yeah, had that out last time. The satellite images released showed nowhere near 59 hits, and were a mix of decent resolution images showing definite hits and a zoomed out master image with circles drawn where you can't tell what is circled let alone whether it was damaged at the resolution supplied. The US military itself only cited those pics as proof, and they actually show ~23 hits on ~17 structures, consistent with the Russian claim. It was easy to prove the right number of hits by showing hi res images of the other claimed areas of damage instead of just three (one of which was a single building), but we never got them. It also didn't help that other US claims around it were inconsistent; Mattis claimed 20% of an air wing destroyed, then 20% of the whole Syrian airforce; the first was likely accurate, the second literally impossible- 20% of the SyAF ain't even stationed there- unless they counted derelict MiG17s, of which there are a lot around Shayrat. Plus of course the base was back in action literally the next day.

 

GPS spoofing or other ECM while over water could easily take out one destroyer's tomahawk quota, they have a known weakness when they cannot use terrain mapping.

 

The Wagner attack was too far from Russian assets to interfere effectively even if they wanted to, and didn't use cruise missiles which can be taken out with no consequences.

 

Well, it got a Syrian airbase hit by some missiles (or at least the timing indicates). I guess that is probably ineffective fire but it did kill some personnel.

 

The strike on T4 is near 100% Israel just like last time, corroborated by there being fire over Lebanese air space (Israeli jets usually hide behind E Qalamoun mountains for attacks. They would have been after the supposed Iranian facility there. Bit risky since the Russians definitely had personnel stationed there to fight ISIS, but they may be elsewhere now.

 

Amusing to hear the BBC say it's an airbase in Homs city though, after 7 years I would have thought they'd have learnt the difference between Homs City and Homs Governate, T4 is way outside Homs city, about half way between Homs and Palmyra.

 

Seems a bit weird for Assad to use gas now of all times.

 

It was very likely a thermobaric weapon removing the oxygen. Suffocations of that sort were very common in WW2 and other fire bombing campaigns in air raid shelters and basements even with conventional type weapons and incendiaries; thermobarics were developed and are particularly used against fortifications for exactly that reason- as well as having a stronger pressure wave they suck the oxygen out of (hardened) structures, suffocating those inside. If strong enough they'll suck the air straight out of your lungs.

 

The supposed attack method is also literally impossible, you can't combine sarin and chlorine without having no sarin at the end as chlorine is a very strong oxidiser; they have to be stored and implemented as CW differently; and you cannot drop a barrel bomb from any aircraft that lacks a loading ramp.

 

Chlorine also requires pretty ludicrously high concs to be fatal. To put it in perspective, given the death rate from the sarin attack in ghouta in 2013 and the relative lethality of chlorine you'd need 12.5 tons of chlorine liquid to get 50 deaths, and that's as a liquid which chlorine ain't at STP, so you'd need a pressure vessel...

 

The only reason there's any fighting at all in Douma is because some in the Jaish al Islam leadership are petrified of being sent to Idlib so there's been infighting between those willing to go and those who aren't. After 10 days the government got sick of waiting, less than a day later the deal is seemingly finalised.

[Agiel]

 

The Russian MoD's claims of a 50%+ failure rate for the Tomahawks seem to have largely been for domestic consumption to further downplay the strike and give justification for not being particularly reciprocal to the US-led coalition (and not just because the balance of combat power in Syria is far less in Russia's favour than they'd like to admit). We saw the same effect when those Vagner mercenaries got beaten back by the coalition a few months ago (there was even whispers that their decision not to interfere with strikes against them may have been the top brass' way of taking the PMCs down a notch).

 

Yeah, had that out last time. The satellite images released showed nowhere near 59 hits, and were a mix of decent resolution images showing definite hits and a zoomed out master image with circles drawn where you can't tell what is circled let alone whether it was damaged at the resolution supplied. The US military itself only cited those pics as proof, and they actually show ~23 hits on ~17 structures, consistent with the Russian claim. It was easy to prove the right number of hits by showing hi res images of the other claimed areas of damage instead of just three (one of which was a single building), but we never got them. It also didn't help that other US claims around it were inconsistent; Mattis claimed 20% of an air wing destroyed, then 20% of the whole Syrian airforce; the first was likely accurate, the second literally impossible- 20% of the SyAF ain't even stationed there- unless they counted derelict MiG17s, of which there are a lot around Shayrat. Plus of course the base was back in action literally the next day.

 

GPS spoofing or other ECM while over water could easily take out one destroyer's tomahawk quota, they have a known weakness when they cannot use terrain mapping.

 

 

Did you not read the part in that link that said this?

 

 

 

ISI very high resolution satellite imagery was able to reveal the results of the Tomahawk cruise missiles attack on the Al-Shayrat Air  Base. According to ISI experts, the total of 44 targets hit. Several targets may have hit twice.

 

Double targeting is very much common practice, particularly if one target is high priority, such as an ammo storage bunker that may or may not contain chemical weapons, in which case even more munitions may be allocated to guarantee total destruction. As for the inconclusive battle damage assessment as I've said before it was all a Kabuki dance; Trump wanted to appear decisive where Obama wasn't, but it would seems he doesn't want entangling the US much more in Syria, particularly if it could escalate into a full-scale shooting war that could turn ugly (uglier for some, but ugly for both parties nonetheless). Overall damage to the Syrians was mitigated because of the advance warning provided to the Russians. 

 

As for GPS spoofing (which I highly doubt came into play, even if they were powerful enough to spoof them), you are aware that many GPS-guided munitions have back-up INS systems that come into play, right?

Edited April 9, 2018 by Agiel

[Drowsy Emperor]

I chuckle at the Assad regime being somehow uniquely 'repressive' in a region with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel, Iraq, and a little further away, Iran.

 

The Assad 'regime' also was at the helm of the only country in the Middle East, aside from Lebanon, where there was still a sizable Christian minority that lived in relative safety in a muslim majority country. 

[Zoraptor]

Did you not read the part in that link that said..

 

Yeah, they didn't show 44 hits though, they showed some hits at high resolution, and a low res set of circles on a zoomed out image covering 2-3 km that you can't tell anything about, because it's too low res. If they provided the high res images they (supposedly) had for all 44, then there would be no argument, but they provide proof for a number consistent with the Russian version, consistency with the US version is solely on their say so, not on the evidence they provide.

 

As for GPS spoofing (which I highly doubt came into play, even if they were powerful enough to spoof them), you are aware that many GPS-guided munitions have back-up INS systems that come into play, right?

 

Inverse square law (esp from 20000 km away), and satellite size means that nearly any terrestrial spoof will override GPS; average GPS signal strength is 0.1 femtowatts, ie 1*10^-16 W. Inertial systems are inaccurate backups. You can readily jam GPS, or potentially spoof missiles to gradually fly themselves into the sea, and an inertial system will not register that as a significant deviation because it's gradual.

 

Or you can spoof GPS to land drones at Iranian airbases, whatever your jam is.

Edited April 9, 2018 by Zoraptor

[Guard Dog]

London to introduce knife control policy: https://www.dailywire.com/news/29179/londons-mayor-declares-intense-new-knife-control-emily-zanotti

 

Mayor Khan wants to keep these "weapon of war" out of civilian hands. Remind me again, which war was fought with knives? Was it WWI?

 

Well, stabbing people is already illegal in most places. Not sure about London but it probably is. So I'm sure the stabbers will become fine upstanding citizens once the knives are illegal. After all, they wouldn't want to break the law would they?

 

I swear when I saw the headline I was sure the link would lead to the Onion. Truth is stranger than fiction it seems.

[Gfted1]

I thought the UK already has stringent knife laws. Somethingsomething the blade cant be longer than inches, cant fold out/in, etc. Cant get a home delivery of knives or acid? Kitchen cutlery must be purchased in-store, in-person? smh.

[Chilloutman]

watching UK is like watchig Titanic leaving the shores

[Drowsy Emperor]

British paranoia in this regard is legendary. Parts of London are rife with crime but if a policeman sees you have a Swiss Army Knife in the glove compartment that is larger than 3 inches or with a locking mechanism (I think it's 3), you're likely to be immediately pulled in and charged for having a weapon.

 

Note that all the loonies had no problem rampaging in the streets with a machete or sword (there was one with a sword the other day), because, you know, if you want to commit a crime, regulations are the last thing that's on your mind.

 

Generally, Europe has taken a rather absurd position on weapons of any sort, in which regular citizens are denied possession, destimulated by paperwork and unjustifiable taxes - which had no effect on crime at all, but rather made sure that a large number of people have no means to defend themselves, or could not enjoy a hobby they like. I knew a few dubious characters in my time, that could be described as small time crooks at best - and they could procure more or less any weapon in short order, should they need it, regulations or no regulations.

Edited April 9, 2018 by Drowsy Emperor