Ukraine Redux

[Wrath of Dagon]

We have troops in Mexico?

[AGX-17]

Thread title should be "Obyknven's Bridge Redux"

Edited March 8, 2014 by AGX-17

[Mor]

All this moralizing is just BS, in that way.

More like an attempt to deflect from Russia actions with apple and oranges scenarios, but you are right some people moralizing is just BS, for example:

 

Putin has been lobbying against foreign intervention in other state affairs - which what he does now in Ukraine.

Two month ago Putin has passed a law criminalizing calls for separatism in Russia - which he now push in Crimea.

 

 

 

 

 

[Malcador]

Heh, wouldn't say it's deflecting - I mean look where we are. But most of it is just amusement at Kerry saying "invading nations is bad" given Iraq, etc. Depressing reality of foreign affairs, I guess

[alanschu]

Heh, wouldn't say it's deflecting - I mean look where we are. But most of it is just amusement at Kerry saying "invading nations is bad" given Iraq, etc. Depressing reality of foreign affairs, I guess

Is this still applicable if Kerry (and the current administration) also feel that invading Iraq in the first place wasn't a good thing? (I honestly have no clue what their views were.

[Malcador]

Probably is, not like the invasions, drone programs and what not are long since past (well ok, drones are still ongoing) so it's not unfair for most people to recall that and snicker a bit at the US scolding Russia. But the kind of feeling isn't uniquely applied to the US.

[pmp10]

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/two-choices-in-crimean-referendum-yes-and-yes-338745.html

 

Seem that people really have lots of choices in upcoming vote

While the referendum is a forgone conclusion this would be too obvious even by Moscow standards.

[Mor]

Heh, wouldn't say it's deflecting - I mean look where we are. But most of it is just amusement at Kerry saying "invading nations is bad" given Iraq, etc. Depressing reality of foreign affairs, I guess

Iraq? Sure, looking at Iraq in retrospect there is a lot US can be and has been criticized for. However, to keep things in context. Iraq was the state that after eight years war with one neighbor, waited two years to go to war with another, attempting to annex it. A country who had a history of use of chemical weapons against its neighbor and its own populace. Who part of its surrender agreement agreed on disarmament and almost decade later, several UN Security Council resolutions, many issues with inspection and transparency came an un popular expensive war.

 

So on one hand we have years of provocation, international community attempts to resolve the issue and Iraqi noncompliance, which finally led to a war. On the other we have Russia taking illegal unilateral action within another sovereign state whose sovereignty and territorial integrity it suppose to assure. Based on fumes of its uncorroborated media reportage. It intervened four days(?) after what it perceived as pro-Russia government was deposed and is now on the way of installing a Pro-Russian one in Crimea.. Which is what they did in Georgia i.e. Rushed in under various pretext(which are laughable considering what they did in the Caucasus) and were nothing more then childlish retaliation for what they perceived as West move against their interests in Yugoslavia..

 

So sure call me a cynic or biased, but those are apple and oranges my friend. ( and certainly is an attempt to deflect by pointing the finger out and bandwagon on USA\Iraq unpopularity )

Edited March 8, 2014 by Mor

[obyknven]

Sanctions!

[Walsingham]

Well, if you think about it, no one really can talk about others based on their past actions. US has interfered in places, invaded others (stuff like Panama, Grenade, Iraq, etc.) and so has Russia and any other nation with any clout.

 

All this moralizing is just BS, in that way.

 

At both national and personal levels, the "I'm dirty too" approach means taking no action ever, and gradually subsiding into a puddle.

 

Fortunately, after a bazillion arguments with you guys I've simply decided I'm British. I have a partisan national perspective. I don't pretend I'm a world citizen and am bestest friends with every half-educated funtwit out there.

 

Now all I have to do is work out what to do with all the half-educated funtwits over here.

[Sarex]

Bur 'murica invaded Afghanistan! Clearly Putin didn't want to miss all the fun, so it's cool.

 

They are lagging on the kill score, they should really work on that. Don't want the pesky Americans being number one on the score board.

Edited March 8, 2014 by Sarex

[Walsingham]

"Pro-Russia 'fakes' in Ukraine?"

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26481860

[BruceVC]

"Pro-Russia 'fakes' in Ukraine?"

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26481860

 

Any usage of pro-Russian fakes would come as no surprise to me

[Fighter]

Flimsy evidence.

 

[213374U]

 

Well, if you think about it, no one really can talk about others based on their past actions. US has interfered in places, invaded others (stuff like Panama, Grenade, Iraq, etc.) and so has Russia and any other nation with any clout.

 

All this moralizing is just BS, in that way.

 

At both national and personal levels, the "I'm dirty too" approach means taking no action ever, and gradually subsiding into a puddle.

 

Fortunately, after a bazillion arguments with you guys I've simply decided I'm British. I have a partisan national perspective. I don't pretend I'm a world citizen and am bestest friends with every half-educated funtwit out there.

 

Now all I have to do is work out what to do with all the half-educated funtwits over here.

 

 

That's a comfy perspective to settle into. It works for as long as you are on the winning side. When that changes (and it will), you'll be wishing that those who take over were a bit more morally conscious about their own actions, and a bit less about those of others.

 

Hell, this is a perfect example of what I'm saying. If reports are true, Russia has occupied Crimea without firing a shot and the whole of the "free world" has basically soiled its collective pants. Nobody willing to actually do anything other than vigorously shake their fists. What actions are being taken?

 

This is nothing but the latest move in the Great Game, and we just hate losing. Stop pretending it's anything else.

[Zoraptor]

All those Russians look the same to me, what with their shifty eyes, the blood of sweet innocents dripping from their mouths and driving their tanks full tilt towards disabled grandmothers trying to protect newborn infants. So difficult to tell them apart they may as well all be the same.

 

Seriously, why would they bother, in a million years, to bus some random woman around for propaganda. And why would the BBC report on it even if it's just one of their moronic social media non events doing it. It's like that running joke about Russia being a Scooby Doo villain, always coming up with an overly complicated, fiendishly intelligent plan that they would have got away with if not for those pesky kids.

[Fighter]

Those photos are apparently more worthy of reporting than the current defense minister of Ukraine possibly being caught with a rifle during the protests (he was opposition then). Or leaked phone recordings of EU officials suggesting the snipers may have been from the opposition. So much for objective reporting.

[Hassat Hunter]

Leonardo DiCaprio is a Russian? Shocking news...

 

Anyway, if Americans on Mexican soil aren't allowed to even keep weapons, how could they have assisted anti-drug compaigns and armed assaults? If so, seems like a violation to me.

I'm not giving the Russians a free pass or have double-standards... I just find it really, really odd that the entire world seems to have double-standards, and ignores side A while going all haywire on side B being exactly the same.

 

And things like the electec officials of the Krim being ignored as 'illegitimate' while a coup is 'legitimate'... what point does democracy even have if legitimacy is just the side you want it to be, be damned elections, votes or anything other democratic thing.

The entire western world, trying to bring democracy everywhere to all lands beneath them... and then just completely discarding it whenever they feel like it. It's... a rather troubling thing to notice happening. But no-one cares, only about Russia... :/

[Gorgon]

in my experience there is rarely ever moral context to considerations about national security. since ultimately not a whole lot is at stake we can afford them. another story with russia. not to say it isnt wrong. it is.but other consideration take presedence

[Gorgon]

Sanctions!

And then they will have to come up with alternatives. Nuclear or whichever, after which both the German checks and the German demand will permanently decrease. Germany needs energy, but Russia has nothing else to sell. Without energy export she will be crippled in short order. 

[Tagaziel]

And then they will have to come up with alternatives. Nuclear or whichever, after which both the German checks and the German demand will permanently decrease. Germany needs energy, but Russia has nothing else to sell. Without energy export she will be crippled in short order.

I recall Norway and the United States as alternative sources of gas. Plus, this crisis may finally motivate the EU member states to get off their collective asses and invest in shale gas. Unless the green nutcases put the foot on the gas and start claiming it will be used to gas people.

[pmp10]

And then they will have to come up with alternatives. Nuclear or whichever, after which both the German checks and the German demand will permanently decrease. Germany needs energy, but Russia has nothing else to sell. Without energy export she will be crippled in short order. 

If there was a serious alternative to Russian gas then eastern Europe would jump on it long ago.

The reality is that about half of Europe simply cannot uncouple itself from Russian energy exports without ruining their economies.

[kgambit]

 

Sanctions!

 

And then they will have to come up with alternatives. Nuclear or whichever, after which both the German checks and the German demand will permanently decrease. Germany needs energy, but Russia has nothing else to sell. Without energy export she will be crippled in short order. 

 

 

The average EU country gets 15 to 30% of its energy from Russia.  A decade ago, Gazprom made up half of Europe's gas imports.  Today, it's down to 22% (according to Business Insider) as EU members diversified their sources of supply in the aftermath of past interruptions in Russian gas deliveries.  Historical seasonal demand for natural gas is about to fall by 10 to 15% to its lowest monthly level and stay at those levels throughout the summer.    The gap won't be quite as large as it might be.  Again, thanks to previous interruptions in supply, storage capacity across the EU was increased and current stockpiles of LNG/oil could keep the EU supplied for months.

 

New supplies of North American natural gas mean that LNG once shipped to the US is now available elsewhere. Competition from Asian countries will likely cause a spike in prices however.  Despite a surplus, the U.S. is not expected to have its first LNG export terminal up and running until mid-2015.  Once the export capability exists, US export restrictions would have to be lifted as well.   EU storage capacity has been increased recently and current stockpiles of natural gas and oil across Europe are near historical highs. 

 

In 2012, 84 percent of Russia’s oil exports and nearly 80 percent of their natural gas exports went to the European Union. Oil and gas revenue comprises more than half of Russia’s budget, and more than 70 percent of the nation’s exports, according to the Energy Information Administration.   Cutting off gas and oil to the EU would decrease Russia's revenue by 40+%. 

 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/europes-gas-supply-ukraine-crisis-russsia-pipelines

 

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2014/0303/Ukraine-crisis-Would-Putin-shut-off-gas-again

 

http://freebeacon.com/experts-see-u-s-energy-exports-as-foil-to-russian-aggression/

 

http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/energy-risks-of-the-ukraine-crisis

 

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/02/25/ukraine-a-few-charts-to-bear-in-mind/#axzz2uvyLnM3W

 

 

I recall Norway and the United States as alternative sources of gas. Plus, this crisis may finally motivate the EU member states to get off their collective asses and invest in shale gas. Unless the green nutcases put the foot on the gas and start claiming it will be used to gas people.

 

 

Short answer is no for the US.  While the US has a gas surplus, it doesn't have significant LNG export capacity (aside possibly from Alaska).  It might be possible to do some fancy footwork and redirect global supplies from countries with LNG export to the EU.  (Chart below is billion cubic meters - multiply by 35.3 to convert to bcf)

 

 

EU demand was ~17,650 bcf or 48.3 bcf/day.  Assuming that 30% of that is lost, the US would have to make up ~14.5 BCF/day.  Starting in 2015 the Sabine Pass terminal is permitted to export up to 2.2 Bcf per day; the Freeport terminal is permitted to export up to 1.4 Bcf per day; the Lake Charles terminal is permitted to export up to 2 Bcf per day and the Cove Pt terminal is permitted to export 0.7 bcf/day or a total of  6.37 Bcf per day.   Those facilities are expected to begin export operations between 2015 and 2018.

 

Only the Sabine Pass project has obtained approval from DOE and FERC. The other three DOE-approved projects are awaiting decisions from FERC.

 

http://www.api.org/~/media/Files/Policy/LNG-Exports/API-LNG-Export-Report-by-ICF.pdf

Edited March 8, 2014 by kgambit

[Tagaziel]

In 2012, 84 percent of Russia’s oil exports and nearly 80 percent of their natural gas exports went to the European Union. Oil and gas revenue comprises more than half of Russia’s budget, and more than 70 percent of the nation’s exports, according to the Energy Information Administration.   Cutting off gas and oil to the EU would decrease Russia's revenue by 40+%.

And trigger an economic collapse in the process. Have you noticed how ironic it is? Everyone weaves doom scenarios centered around running out of resources, but this one centers around there being too many resources to go around, at least as far as Russia is concerned.

[Mor]

The average EU country gets 15 to 30% of its energy from Russia.  A decade ago, Gazprom made up half of Europe's gas imports.  Today, it's down to 22% (according to Business Insider) as EU members diversified their sources of supply in the aftermath of past interruptions in Russian gas deliveries.

Indeed, the EU has long since recognized its vulnerability to energy markets crisis's and it wasn't hiding its work on solving this issue.

 

Speaking of which, what came out of that plan to bypass Russia monopoly? iirc it was suppose to directly connect Turkmenistan to EU, through Caspian sea, South Caucuses and Black sea(I think at one point it was considered to go through Ukraine\Crimea), to avoid Russia playing a third party getting a cut and control.

Edited March 8, 2014 by Mor