Ukraine burns

[Tagaziel]

So what is going on in the Ukraine? Did someone leave the oven on?

Yeah, Stalin, seventy years ago.

[obyknven]

Ukrainian Nazi's catch ethnic Russian.

 

http://youtu.be/etVJUyLrCBk

 

ARRRRRRRRRRRRR! We have all rights for begin of intervention, NATO, EU, US GTFO. Your whining is not interested for us, just shut your mouth!

[Darkpriest]

 

Russians have too much to lose there, the naval base of Black Sea's Fleet is just too much to endanger for Russians from their military point of view. Only someone naive or without knowledge would think that Russians would just look at that passively.

Russian naval base is leased to Russia for at least several decades, in return for semi-mutually beneficial gas deal to both Russia and Ukraine.

 

I am not sure why you decided that it was in danger, but I am certain that Russian wish to keep its real estate in Ukraine isn't a causes beli to invasion.

 

 

because the new government might just say "screw you, the deal was signed by the president, which we did not want to have". The previous president, just after the Orange Revolution, wasn't so keen on signing the new deal.

 

Put yourself in the Russian shoes and ask yourself. Is it better to have a full control over a territory, where one of the most important Russian military bases is placed, or do you want to keep it and leave to unstable government and politics? Not to mention major dislike from nationalists, which got some real voice recently.

[pmp10]

I doubt there will be much violence, fortunately. Mainly because I doubt Ukraine feels it can rely on its own army to fight reliably enough, there are already a lot of rumours about defections. And I cannot see any of the western countries fighting Russia for Ukraine which is what it would take- unless they go for all of Ukraine, which seems very unlikely and would almost certainly be a momentous mistake. RT etc are running lots of video of pro Russia demos in Donetsk/ D'trovsk/ Kharkov/ Mariupol etc...

Depending on how far Russia moves it's troops Ukraine may have no choice.

The government in Kiev should survive loosing Crimea but not a third of the country.

[Fighter]

I doubt there will be much violence, fortunately. Mainly because I doubt Ukraine feels it can rely on its own army to fight reliably enough, there are already a lot of rumours about defections. And I cannot see any of the western countries fighting Russia for Ukraine which is what it would take- unless they go for all of Ukraine, which seems very unlikely and would almost certainly be a momentous mistake. RT etc are running lots of video of pro Russia demos in Donetsk/ D'trovsk/ Kharkov/ Mariupol etc...

 

As we say in Russia, "We are sitting on a barrel of gunpowder," and anything can set it off.

[Augusta Corvina]

 

I doubt there will be much violence, fortunately. Mainly because I doubt Ukraine feels it can rely on its own army to fight reliably enough, there are already a lot of rumours about defections. And I cannot see any of the western countries fighting Russia for Ukraine which is what it would take- unless they go for all of Ukraine, which seems very unlikely and would almost certainly be a momentous mistake. RT etc are running lots of video of pro Russia demos in Donetsk/ D'trovsk/ Kharkov/ Mariupol etc...

 

As we say in Russia, "We are sitting on a barrel of gunpowder," and anything can set it off.

 

Lets hope it doesn't get to the point where someone does set it off in this crisis.

[Walsingham]

anything can set it off.

 

 

What, like a hat full of frogs?

[obyknven]

Ukrainian Navy vs Russian Navy.

 

Ukainian media fullfilled propaganda how brave Ukrainian army prepare for war against Russia, but IRL...

 

All Ukrainian military forces in Crimea take side of Crimea.  

 

http://translate.google.ru/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=ru&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fpanzerbar.livejournal.com%2F1570235.html%23comments

 

Most of Ukrainian military bases in Crimea. Ukraine is game over.

[Meshugger]

[Hildegard]

I answered it already. I'm perfectly happy for eastern Ukraine to rejoin Russia- or become The Republic of Novorussia for that matter- if it represents the will of the majority of the people. Even pro western news outlets suggest that is so for Crimea, at very least, and quite possibly so for much of the rest of the south and east. That isn't be any means perfect of course, but then while the new government talked reconciliation their actions did not match the rhetoric, indeed they actively antagonised areas that were politically opposed to them by threatening to ban their political parties, plus the repealing of the language laws. If they wanted territorial integrity then compromise was needed, not triumphalism. These things do not happen in a vacuum.

 

 

I don't mind if the Caucasus republics secede from Russia at all. I wouldn't object to the South Island seceding from New Zealand, indeed it would be eminently sensible for them to as they're largely treated as a place to generate electricity for the north. I'd just question whether that would represent the will of the majority of the people in either place.

 

 

So basically you have 'new' means of changing internationally recognized borders. Not directly by military power but with demographic changes done by either relocation of a large group of people or by high birthrate within a certain minority that during time becomes significant in total percentage of the population. Then empower them with voting rights while taking into consideration that melting pot is often more of a theory then reality and you have new rules, new laws, new countries, out with the old. Some would argue that it's only unavoidable change in the long run but it could easily be just long term tactics by a certain group. Makes me wonder if the map of Europe will be the same in the next century which I highly doubt since certain current minorities are often better protected in the EU then Koalas in Australia. 

Edited March 2, 2014 by Hildegard

[213374U]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035

 

Duma approves military action.

 

 

EU foreign ministers will meet on Monday.

 

 

<image deleted>

 

 

 

 

Pretty surprised Putin has gone all in so soon. Would definitely have thought there'd be more stage managing before anything happened. At the moment the contrast with Obama could not be more stark, albeit Obama's wobble was over a far more peripheral and distant issue, and Putin is likely to get broad support from population and politicians.

 

Leaving the international community (read: the US and her proconsuls) to deal with a fait accompli that's achieved without bloodshed and with, at the very least, acquiescence of the locals may be less risky than letting "diplomacy" run its course and then defying everyone by applying force anyway if the backroom dealing doesn't go their way. As you said, I can't see anyone being thrilled at the perspective of having to dislodge the Russians from Crimea and eastern Ukraine. We may be looking at Munich Agreement Redux, depending how things play out.

 

 

 

So basically you have 'new' means of changing internationally recognized borders. Not directly by military power but with demographic changes done by either relocation of a large group of people or by high birthrate within a certain minority that during time becomes significant in total percentage of the population. Then empower them with voting rights while taking into consideration that melting pot is often more of a theory then reality and you have new rules, new laws, new countries, out with the old. Some would argue that it's only unavoidable change in the long run but it could easily be just long term tactics by a certain group. Makes me wonder if the map of Europe will be the same in the next century which I highly doubt since certain current minorities are often better protected in the EU then Koalas in Australia. 

 

Not really new means, and I'm not sure the comparison is fair. Plurinational countries don't exactly have a stellar track record of success and stability throughout history, and breakup after an uneasy while is the usual outcome. Also Crimea had been a part of Russia for longer than (modern) Ukraine has existed, so it's not surprising that the majoritarian ethnic group is Russians. This is not Russians coming into Crimea in the past 20 years and voting for secession after completely changing the demographic composition of the peninsula. Looks like you are trying to establish a parallel between Russians in Ukraine and immigrants in Europe, but it's a bit of a stretch.

Edited March 2, 2014 by Gorth
Sorry numbers, no (uncensored) profanity in images

[Mor]

Interesting POV which I haven't considered before:

Europe’s attempts to woo Ukraine have combined with the defensiveness of Vladimir Putin’s Russia to give the situation a potentially highly explosive dynamic. We don’t know how Mr Putin is going to react. It’s unlikely to be kindly. First Ukraine, next Russia; Ukraine is only a mirror image of Russia’s own, corrupt form of semi-totalitarian, gangster capitalism. If Russia’s sphere of influence is not defended in Ukraine, it can only be a matter of time before the wolves will be at Mr Putin’s own door. (link)

 

Meanwhile Ukraine approaching economic disaster. Facing default it would inevitably need to make tough reforms, with recession in its future, which is never popular, but especially since I understand that much of East Ukraine depends on soviet era industries, and with Russia turning the heat and fear mongering along sectarian lines, making Ukraine political cohesion hard.

 

As we say in Russia, "We are sitting on a barrel of gunpowder," and anything can set it off.

Funny how many times you saddle up on a powder keg of your own making. Edited March 2, 2014 by Mor

[obyknven]

 

A Russian media report on Saturday claimed that Ukraine’s Navy flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate has refused to follow orders from Kiev, came over to Russia’s side and was returning home from the Gulf of Aden flying the Russian naval flag. Various Ukrainian media denied the report as “false” and “propaganda,” but gave only a Facebook statement of a former Navy officer turned journalist in support of the rebuttal.

This comes as the newly appointed Navy Chief rear admiral Denis Berezovsky has sworn allegiance to the people of Crimea, according to RIA Novosti.

“I, Berezovsky Denis, swear allegiance to the Crimean people and pledge to protect it, as required by the [army] regulations,” Berezovsky said.

http://rt.com/news/ukrainian-warships-leave-sevastopol-476/

 

It's not intervention. It's rebellion of Ukrinian regions against usurpers.  Ukrainian army support this rebellion. I think we have short Egypt scenario here. Glory for Ukrainian army! Glory for Ukrainian people! Glory for Crimea! Hurrah!

[obyknven]

Just great:

Carnival in Crimea
 By Pepe Escobar

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-05-280214.html

[Mor]

because the new government might just say "screw you, the deal was signed by the president, which we did not want to have". The previous president, just after the Orange Revolution, wasn't so keen on signing the new deal.

 

Put yourself in the Russian shoes and ask yourself. Is it better to have a full control over a territory,...

You are correct that the Ukrainian government might want todo that, after all that deal was sketchy, but the pragmatic in me would like to note that big election slogans and promises rarely survive the practical phase of number crunching, like it or not Ukraine is in an economical **** storm and they both need the income from that base, Russian gas deal and the loan they provide so the chance for that deal to go away was slim to none. What Ukraine actual want is that Russia would stop its blunt disregard to Ukrainian sovereignty.

 

Also we fully aware of Russian interests in Ukraine, but no one gives a damn about Russian shoes, it s the shoes of independent Ukraine and every other country that Russia trample that we are concerned about.

 

 

Also How Russia view Ukraine:

Edited March 2, 2014 by Mor

[Walsingham]

 

 

A Russian media report on Saturday claimed that Ukraine’s Navy flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate has refused to follow orders from Kiev, came over to Russia’s side and was returning home from the Gulf of Aden flying the Russian naval flag. Various Ukrainian media denied the report as “false” and “propaganda,” but gave only a Facebook statement of a former Navy officer turned journalist in support of the rebuttal.

This comes as the newly appointed Navy Chief rear admiral Denis Berezovsky has sworn allegiance to the people of Crimea, according to RIA Novosti.

“I, Berezovsky Denis, swear allegiance to the Crimean people and pledge to protect it, as required by the [army] regulations,” Berezovsky said.

http://rt.com/news/ukrainian-warships-leave-sevastopol-476/

 

It's not intervention. It's rebellion of Ukrinian regions against usurpers.  Ukrainian army support this rebellion. I think we have short Egypt scenario here. Glory for Ukrainian army! Glory for Ukrainian people! Glory for Crimea! Hurrah!

 

 

I notice your grammar and punctuation is functional again.

 

You sure you don't want to edit your post and take out a few vowels? Maybe move the capital letters around some?

Edited March 2, 2014 by Walsingham

[Zoraptor]

So basically you have 'new' means of changing internationally recognized borders. Not directly by military power but with demographic changes done by either relocation of a large group of people or by high birthrate within a certain minority that during time becomes significant in total percentage of the population.

 

That has always been the case though. On Feb 5 1840 New Zealand's population would have been around 80% Maori, and if the country fairy had waved her magical wand then all things being equal you would have had 'Aotearoa' instead of New Zealand. Now the Maori proportion is only around an eighth of that. Same for any new world country.

 

I'm no fan of sovereign absolutism and borders being immutable and absolute, because they've never been immutable and absolute- and neither have ethnoreligious make ups either. You cannot turn back time to make Crimea majority Tartar/ Cuman/ Greek/ Scythian, or however far back you go. It's isn't like all the russian residents there have been bussed in by Moscow in the last two weeks, the vast majority will have been born and raised there, and most while there was no practical difference between the Russian and Ukrainian SSRs. In essence, most of the arguments against which don't involve sovereign absolutism involve talking of historic wrongs. Well, they're historic wrongs. You're not going to solve them by creating another, current, wrong.

[Nepenthe]

Having this awkward historical flashback about wanting all people who speak a certain language to be a part of one country. It didn't end too well. It's also related to my pet theory about russia being 70-80 years behind Western Europe in development. 

 

Anyway,

Edited March 2, 2014 by Nepenthe

[obyknven]

Germany support Russia now.

 

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/von-der-leyen-russische-militaeruebung-ist-ein-muskelspiel-12823313.html

http://www.presseportal.de/pm/50325/2676887/luebecker-nachrichten-luebecker-nachrichten-missfelder-warnt-vor-krisenreaktion-wie-zu-zeiten-des/gn

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krim-eu-das-dilemma-der-europaeer-a-956438.html

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-russland-krise-putins-plaene-fuer-ein-protektorat-krim-a-956445.html

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/krim-krise-ukraine-verzichtet-auf-umstrittenes-sprachengesetz-12826788.html

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/krim-krise-nationalisten-stiften-tataren-zu-anschlaegen-an-a-956033.html

 

Vladimir Putin on Sunday accepted a proposal by Chancellor Angela Merkel

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/germany-putin-accepts-merkel-contact-group-idea-22740153

 

Result - Germany and RuSSia solve Ukrainian problem, meanwhile UK, Canada, US, NATO and EU stop anti-Russian rhetoric also.  Lol, fair political games again.

[HoonDing]

Why so excited, oby?

[Gorgon]

Perhaps because they have calculated that this will turn into a giant Russian headache in a matter of months ?

[obyknven]

Everyone against usurpers in Kiev now. It must be ended by joint occupation of Ukraine by NATO and Russia. Poland begin move military forces to Ukrainian borders.

http://youtu.be/fpI32Bline4
 

Edited March 2, 2014 by obyknven

[Gorgon]

It really underscores how impossible it is now to move forces without being detected by some guy with a camera phone. 

[obyknven]

Perhaps because they have calculated that this will turn into a giant Russian headache in a matter of months ?

I predict few scenarios of Ukrainian crisis solving. This scenario is the best. Other scenarios is quite good also, but need war against Ukrainians, we IRL don't want this (yet no casulaties in Crimea is best proof about this).

Edited March 2, 2014 by obyknven

[obyknven]

It really underscores how impossible it is now to move forces without being detected by some guy with a camera phone. 

Yah. Moar of Polish drang nach Osten.

http://youtu.be/z4uubVAZXwU