Syrian civil war

[ShadySands]

Has Kerry always looked like Odo from Deep Space 9 or is this a new development?

 

Sorry for being off topic but it's just something that has been bugging me for a while

[Rostere]

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oisXKt6A6YU

 

 

Around 8:44 about sums up what I'm thinking.

 

 

 

We'll have to agree to disagree around whether Russia's attempts to broker a peaceful solution make sense in regard to Syria. It may seem like I am flip-flopping on the  armed intervention in Syria but I have followed many new perspectives and I fail to see how at least allowing the Russians to get Assad to destroy his Chemical weapons is a bad idea?

 

 

I'm not a great chess player, but you must be one lousy chess player!

 

Because it's not good if the chemical weapons are removed, leaving Russia strongarming Eastern Europe, and resurgent in the Mideast when the US is apparently backsliding and impotent. Because Russia is presently under the control of the most rapacious oligarchical kleptocrats in human history.

 

As oby would confirm, if oby was actually Russian, and could remember and be consistent in her spelling and grammatical errors.

 

I'm with BruceVC on this one. Please, you can't possibly believe that the powers that be can't focus both on Syria and Eastern Europe?

 

I frankly don't see how the situation in Syria changes anything, although possibly both situation are symptoms of the same winds of change. But really, you have got to deal with it - the US' part of the global economy has declined since about the end of WW2 and so the time as "the sole global superpower" was bound to end.

 

The ideas that Fox News seems to be spreading (that Russia has somehow outmaneuvered the US) is really quite stupid. That facts on the ground are exactly the same as before. The US can attack Syria on exactly the same premises as before. The fact that Russia (and China?) has been "bizarro-Israeling" Syria is not new, and has not changed recently.

 

The problem is that Obama has been trying to sell the war to the US public as necessitated by Assad's use of chemical weaponry. My own issue with Assad is that he is a dictator slaughtering his own population - I'd support the US in a short, focused effort to destroy his military capabilities from the air and in giving support to democratic resistance movements. But I'm not the one who's paying for all of that. A lot of people in the US are uneducated and very poor, and if the American public wants to spend the money at home instead, I don't think Obama should attack Syria.

 

But then the US is already throwing away billions in military aid to Israel, the Egyptian military, and for many other dubious and wasteful purposes. I guess the argument for going to war against the wishes of the people is that the people have no idea how their tax money is spent anyway, and they won't notice the cost for an intervention in Syria.

[licketysplit]

I love John Stewart. Man, he razed the administration and rightly so. We wait for more than 100 thousand people to die, but once they die from chemical weapons, WHOA THERE Assad! Stahp, STAHP.

[kgambit]

 

Around 8:44 about sums up what I'm thinking.

 

 

 

The ideas that Fox News seems to be spreading (that Russia has somehow outmaneuvered the US) is really quite stupid. That facts on the ground are exactly the same as before. The US can attack Syria on exactly the same premises as before. The fact that Russia (and China?) has been "bizarro-Israeling" Syria is not new, and has not changed recently.

 

The problem is that Obama has been trying to sell the war to the US public as necessitated by Assad's use of chemical weaponry. My own issue with Assad is that he is a dictator slaughtering his own population - I'd support the US in a short, focused effort to destroy his military capabilities from the air and in giving support to democratic resistance movements. But I'm not the one who's paying for all of that. A lot of people in the US are uneducated and very poor, and if the American public wants to spend the money at home instead, I don't think Obama should attack Syria.

 

But then the US is already throwing away billions in military aid to Israel, the Egyptian military, and for many other dubious and wasteful purposes. I guess the argument for going to war against the wishes of the people is that the people have no idea how their tax money is spent anyway, and they won't notice the cost for an intervention in Syria.

 

 

@licketysplit - Jon Stewart should get the peace prize. 

 

Let's hold off awarding those peace prizes until something gets accomplished shall we?

 

a few points:

 

1) Fox News represents one view and is hardly indicative of the entire US media.  Their biased rhetoric is legendary and even die hard conservatives have to laugh about some of it. 

 

2) That being said, there is a lot of skepticism (and rightfully so) that Assad and Putin are serious about this and it's not just a stall tactic.  

 

3) The onus is on Assad and Putin to deliver on their "promises" and make this a workable initiative.  Assad and Putin do not get to dictate the conditions unilaterally.  Not if they expect the US to back off the threats of attack. 

 

4)  I think you underestimate what the US public knows about foreign aid disbursements and particularly the major expenditures to Egypt, Israel etc.  Those figures are in the news frequently.  So was the running tally for the cost of the Iraq war, the running tally in Afghanistan and the cost of Libya.   In fact, Libya was a drop in the bucket (<1 bn$) compared to foreign aid (>72 bn$). 

 

I don't entirely agree with your characterization of what is "wasted" foreign aid.  My own personal "cut list" would be different from yours.    

 

 

Slightly off topic:

I have one request:  Can you provide a link to support the assertions about poverty and education in the US?  My sources don't agree. 

 

US poverty was at 15.1% living below the national poverty line which is less than Germany, Belgium, and Japan and only slightly greater than the UK or Denmark. 

 

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=69

 

US Teritary education attainment rates  for 25-64 year olds are surpassed by only four countries in the world. 

 

In the US, the percentage of parents who have not attained an upper secondary education is smaller in the U.S. than in many OECD countries – 17%, compared to 33% across all OECD countries – the odds that the children of these parents will be in higher education are particularly low, at just 29% (odds of 0.29). These odds are below every other OECD country except Canada and New Zealand.

 

The one area the US is behind in the starting age of education.  US enrollment of 4 year olds lags, but our education system is geared to start formal education at age 6.

 

http://www.oecd.org/education/CN%20-%20United%20States.pdf

Edited September 13, 2013 by kgambit

[Gfted1]

I love the way you bring the pimp hand to silly posts, kgambit.

 

Rostere and Drowsy have massive butthurt over the US so they are going to keep you busy.

[Zoraptor]

Assad and Putin do not get to dictate the conditions unilaterally.  Not if they expect the US to back off the threats of attack.

 

I really cannot see the US intervening now. I know they're still saying it, but it was a deeply unpopular proposition even prior to the current diplomatic initiative, and time will reduce both the impact of the chemical attack as a persuasion (that was months ago and we need to act now??) and the presence of an alternative 'soft' option will be attractive even to those that supported it but know their voters don't. At the beginning Obama may have believed that he could persuade people to action but that did not work even in the immediate aftermath, so there's little prospect of it working further down the line. He could still do it, unilaterally, but it would be political suicide and he'd be flushing the rest of his term down the toilet- and everyone, including the Russians and Syrians, knows it.

 

I do think that the US got outmanoeuvred here. Russia seizing on Kerry's off the cuff suggestion allowed them to set the tone and pace of the discussion, we already have a 2 week delay come out of it. To keep control of the situation the US needed to do a 'proper' proposal with conditions set rather than a one sentence muse, as it happened the Russians and Syrians got in first so got to control the terms of the debate. I don't think the US administration will be entirely displeased even though it could have been handled better, since they must have been nervous at the prospect of intervention no matter what they said publicly, its only real negative is that it looks sloppy, for everything else it's just staus quo ante.

[Rostere]

I love the way you bring the pimp hand to silly posts, kgambit.

 

Rostere and Drowsy have massive butthurt over the US so they are going to keep you busy.

 

So... I guess I should feel insulted now?

 

 

 

Around 8:44 about sums up what I'm thinking.

 

 

 

The ideas that Fox News seems to be spreading (that Russia has somehow outmaneuvered the US) is really quite stupid. That facts on the ground are exactly the same as before. The US can attack Syria on exactly the same premises as before. The fact that Russia (and China?) has been "bizarro-Israeling" Syria is not new, and has not changed recently.

 

The problem is that Obama has been trying to sell the war to the US public as necessitated by Assad's use of chemical weaponry. My own issue with Assad is that he is a dictator slaughtering his own population - I'd support the US in a short, focused effort to destroy his military capabilities from the air and in giving support to democratic resistance movements. But I'm not the one who's paying for all of that. A lot of people in the US are uneducated and very poor, and if the American public wants to spend the money at home instead, I don't think Obama should attack Syria.

 

But then the US is already throwing away billions in military aid to Israel, the Egyptian military, and for many other dubious and wasteful purposes. I guess the argument for going to war against the wishes of the people is that the people have no idea how their tax money is spent anyway, and they won't notice the cost for an intervention in Syria.

 

 

@licketysplit - Jon Stewart should get the peace prize. 

 

Let's hold off awarding those peace prizes until something gets accomplished shall we?

 

a few points:

 

1) Fox News represents one view and is hardly indicative of the entire US media.  Their biased rhetoric is legendary and even die hard conservatives have to laugh about some of it. 

 

2) That being said, there is a lot of skepticism (and rightfully so) that Assad and Putin are serious about this and it's not just a stall tactic.  

 

3) The onus is on Assad and Putin to deliver on their "promises" and make this a workable initiative.  Assad and Putin do not get to dictate the conditions unilaterally.  Not if they expect the US to back off the threats of attack. 

 

4)  I think you underestimate what the US public knows about foreign aid disbursements and particularly the major expenditures to Egypt, Israel etc.  Those figures are in the news frequently.  So was the running tally for the cost of the Iraq war, the running tally in Afghanistan and the cost of Libya.   In fact, Libya was a drop in the bucket (<1 bn$) compared to foreign aid (>72 bn$). 

 

I don't entirely agree with your characterization of what is "wasted" foreign aid.  My own personal "cut list" would be different from yours.    

 

 

Slightly off topic:

I have one request:  Can you provide a link to support the assertions about poverty and education in the US?  My sources don't agree. 

 

US poverty was at 15.1% living below the national poverty line which is less than Germany, Belgium, and Japan and only slightly greater than the UK or Denmark. 

 

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=69

 

US Teritary education attainment rates  for 25-64 year olds are surpassed by only four countries in the world. 

 

In the US, the percentage of parents who have not attained an upper secondary education is smaller in the U.S. than in many OECD countries – 17%, compared to 33% across all OECD countries – the odds that the children of these parents will be in higher education are particularly low, at just 29% (odds of 0.29). These odds are below every other OECD country except Canada and New Zealand.

 

The one area the US is behind in the starting age of education.  US enrollment of 4 year olds lags, but our education system is geared to start formal education at age 6.

 

http://www.oecd.org/education/CN%20-%20United%20States.pdf

 

 

Take a deep breath and try not to read things into my post which I have not tried to say.

 

I don't think Fox News is indicative of US media in general - in fact, when I think about it (if you want to raise the subject), I'd say they're somewhat of an outlier. But I'm really struggling to figure out what made you think I did in the first place, so would you help me out on that? (Just as an anecdote, I would estimate that US media is my primary overall news source, so I can't help the feeling that you've raised a somewhat bizarre accusation)

 

Of course there is scepticism against Putin (to address your points 2) and 3)). My issue with Fox News is that they seem to believe that Putin has "won" over Obama or the US in any way, when facts on the ground remain the same. Putin has revealed the silliness in the exaggerated focus on chemical weapons as a "red line", that is all. Whether or not they go ahead with this plan to dismantle Syria's chemical weapons cache or not changes very little as far as I can see.

 

You're right that I might underestimate the knowledge of the public about the US budget. My personal impressions are solely from editorials in papers, comments on the Internet, forum users such as yourself, and so on. I guess the only thing which could settle the issue is a poll of some kind conducted on US citizens? Nevertheless I find the amount of economically motivated heated discussion going on around the cost of low-cost operations compared to similar high-cost operations disturbing (you mention Libya as an example).

 

Please pay attention when you're replying to my posts - I was strictly discussing military foreign aid and not foreign aid in general. The argument was that there is a rough equivalence between military aid and own military expenses - both represent some sort of projection of military power - added to the previous point about the sometimes irrational focus on certain low-cost expenses over far larger ones.

 

I made the statement that "lots of people are poor and uneducated in the US". I didn't really compare the US to any specific other country, it was meant to represent the argument of the people who want to make use of their tax dollars at home. You're right in that a very high percentage of US have went through tertiary education - saying that "lots of people are uneducated" was a rather pretentious and smug statement in hindsight. Regarding poverty I'm afraid my impression is still that there are "a lot" of poor people in the US, looking at your own data I'm used to countries with a lower poverty ratio (there are lots of different ways of measuring poverty and there seem to be few, if any, consistent worldwide studies, further complicating discussion on this subject). But in any case that is mostly beside the point, I did not mean to misrepresent facts to make the US look bad in comparison to other countries, just to make an example why people might not want to spend their tax dollars on overseas military operations. Since I don't live in the US myself I might have come across as trying to start some sort of silly "which country is the best" contest, which I do not want to engage in.

[Volourn]

"was a rather pretentious and smug statement in hindsight."
 

And, bigoted.

[Volourn]

Back to the Putin article.. I find it hilarious he talks about how 'everyone is equal' but he is upfront' about his hatred of gays and how he doesn't considered them human or equal. What a piece of murderous ****.

[Drowsy Emperor]

Yes Volo, he's the new dark lord of the Sith made by splicing the genes of Stalin, Hitler and Pol Pot.

 

 

Join the dark side Vol, we need more Ewoks in our ranks.

[Rostere]

Back to the Putin article.. I find it hilarious he talks about how 'everyone is equal' but he is upfront' about his hatred of gays and how he doesn't considered them human or equal. What a piece of murderous ****.

 

I wonder what Freud would say: http://goo.gl/WURZ3R

[Gorgon]

Sounds more like a clumsy attempt at speaking the language of his audience. Talking about god and equality (The bill of rights) 

 

He's a politician. Who knows what he actually thinks. 

[Malcador]

 

Back to the Putin article.. I find it hilarious he talks about how 'everyone is equal' but he is upfront' about his hatred of gays and how he doesn't considered them human or equal. What a piece of murderous ****.

 

I wonder what Freud would say: http://goo.gl/WURZ3R

 

That you're gay for Putin, it seems.

 

[Rostere]

 

 

Back to the Putin article.. I find it hilarious he talks about how 'everyone is equal' but he is upfront' about his hatred of gays and how he doesn't considered them human or equal. What a piece of murderous ****.

 

I wonder what Freud would say: http://goo.gl/WURZ3R

 

That you're gay for Putin, it seems.

 

 

 

And you too obviously, since you seem so eager to talk about it.

 

 

Besides, what could possibly more gay than a Space Marine avatar?

[Malcador]

Wasn't really that eager, just seemed like a fitting joke at the time. Thought at least he has kept in shape at his age, similar to some ex-military types. Try to keep the avatars 40k related, given my screen name.

[Walsingham]

 

 

 

Back to the Putin article.. I find it hilarious he talks about how 'everyone is equal' but he is upfront' about his hatred of gays and how he doesn't considered them human or equal. What a piece of murderous ****.

 

I wonder what Freud would say: http://goo.gl/WURZ3R

 

That you're gay for Putin, it seems.

 

 

 

And you too obviously, since you seem so eager to talk about it.

 

 

Besides, what could possibly more gay than a Space Marine avatar?

 

 

A Thousand Sons space marine avatar?

[Wrath of Dagon]

Has Kerry always looked like Odo from Deep Space 9 or is this a new development?

 

Sorry for being off topic but it's just something that has been bugging me for a while

Apparently some fairly unsuccessful plastic surgery he's had.

[Oerwinde]

So seems now the moderate rebels are fighting the extremist ones now, more good news for Assad.

[licketysplit]

If we give weapons to the rebels, we give weapons to terrorists. Russia is right, this a giant cluster**** we can't afford to get caught up in.

[Walsingham]

BBC provides footage suggesting IRGC assisting Assad directly.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24103801

 

If this is true then intervention might be more relevant to US policy than previously suspected. That is if it could be a drain on Iranian finances and IRGC manpower. The IRGC is the lynchpin of Iranian hawkishness, particularly with regard to the straits of Hormuz.

[BruceVC]

BBC provides footage suggesting IRGC assisting Assad directly.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24103801

 

If this is true then intervention might be more relevant to US policy than previously suspected. That is if it could be a drain on Iranian finances and IRGC manpower. The IRGC is the lynchpin of Iranian hawkishness, particularly with regard to the straits of Hormuz.

 

This is a good point and relevant. Iran has committed resources to the Syria conflict and Syria is Iran's only major ally in the region. If Assad is defeated this will weaken Iran. But we need to also weigh up the destabilizing impact for the region if Assad is removed, questions like "who would govern Syria in the aftermath" need to be considered?

[Walsingham]

 

BBC provides footage suggesting IRGC assisting Assad directly.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24103801

 

If this is true then intervention might be more relevant to US policy than previously suspected. That is if it could be a drain on Iranian finances and IRGC manpower. The IRGC is the lynchpin of Iranian hawkishness, particularly with regard to the straits of Hormuz.

 

This is a good point and relevant. Iran has committed resources to the Syria conflict and Syria is Iran's only major ally in the region. If Assad is defeated this will weaken Iran. But we need to also weigh up the destabilizing impact for the region if Assad is removed, questions like "who would govern Syria in the aftermath" need to be considered?

 

 

I am afraid that if Iraq is anything to go by, even democracy won't stop the curse of sectarian violence. I'm beginning to think that maybe a Russian-backed Assad with some negotaited settlement with the moderates is the best we can hope for, so far as the ordinary Syrians are concerned.

 

Of course, whether 'ordinary' is sufficient basis for the future of the country is a point which might interest less ordinary, and more ambitious Syrians.

[kgambit]

UN Report on the August 18th attack is now available:

 

http://www.un.org/disarmament/content/slideshow/Secretary_General_Report_of_CW_Investigation.pdf

 

 

Highlights of the report:

 

 

Confirmed usage of Sarin Gas

 

 

The likelihood of the attacks being caused by friendly fire   (i.e. chemical gas drift arising from unfriendly atmospheric conditions) is unlikely:

 

The report said the weather conditions on August 21 ensured that as many people as possible were injured or killed. Temperatures were falling between 2 a.m. and 5 a.m., it said, which meant that air was moving downwards toward the ground. 

 

"Chemical weapons use in such meteorological conditions maximizes their potential impact as the heavy gas can stay close to the ground and penetrate into lower levels of buildings and constructions where many people were seeking shelter," it said.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/16/us-syria-crisis-un-idUSBRE98F0ED20130916

 

The delivery systems are  M-14 rocket artillery (possibly launched via the BM-14 MLRS) and 330 mm Rocket artillery - both of which are known to exist in Assad's inventory

 

Whether the rebels have captured these delivery systems - along with sarin gas - from government armouries is unknown. Even if they have, experts said that operating these weapons successfully would be exceptionally difficult.

 

”It’s hard to say with certainty that the rebels don’t have access to these delivery systems. But even if they do, using them in such a way as to ensure that the attack was successful is the bit the rebels won’t know how to do,” said Dina Esfandiary, an expert on chemical weapons at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10313319/Syria-inspectors-disclose-sarin-used-as-Ban-Ki-moon-says-gas-attacks-were-war-crime.html

 

Rockets were launched from the Northwest - detailed analysis of the trajectories is underway in an attempt to pinpoint the launch locations

The report does not directly blame either the Syrian government or the Syrian opposition for carrying out the attack.

 

The investigators had enough evidence to trace the trajectories followed by two of the five rockets. If the data they provide is enough to pinpoint the locations from which the weapons were launched, this should help to settle the question of responsibility.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24113553

 

The quality of the samples indicated that this was likely NOT a cottage industry attack:

 

"In response to a question Mr Sellstrom confirmed that the quality of the sarin was superior both to that used in the Tokyo subway but also to that used by Iraq during the Iraq-Iran war," he told reporters. 

 

"This does not point to a cottage industry chemical," said British U.N. Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant, taking a swipe at earlier comments by Russian U.N. envoy Vitaly Churkin. Churkin said in July that a Moscow eanalysis found "cottage industry" quality sarin gas was used in an alleged March 19 attack, which he blamed on the rebels.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/16/us-syria-crisis-un-idUSBRE98F0ED20130916

Edited September 16, 2013 by kgambit

[pmp10]

Anyone willing to bet that this will change something?

[Morgoth]

Anyone willing to bet that this will change something?

 

The damage has already been done: