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Ukraine Conflict - Those who can win a war well can rarely make a good peace and those who could make a good peace would never have won the war


Mamoulian War

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13 hours ago, Malcador said:

Because they follow the rules based order.  In that the rules apply to thee, not me.

But its  a relief you dont support  the  rules  based  order,  imagine how outraged  you  would be if you did believe  in it ;(

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

 

But its  a relief you dont support  the  rules  based  order,  imagine how outraged  you  would be if you did believe  in it ;(

The "Rules Based Order" is a bit of a myth, just like El Dorado. Enough repetition of the phrase and some people start thinking it exists. Let's be honest though, powerful countries do what they want, when it suits them and it benefits them. Nothing's changed since the fall of the western Roman Empire there. It's always an easier sell to your population if you can justify why a lot of the serfs have to die for their lord, but in the end, it's just a way of placating the masses.

Sometimes the justifications are easier to come by, sometimes they have to be manufactured and sometimes, countries just go "ah screw it, too much work" and do what they please (both England and France used to live by the credo might is right in the past). It's still very much the case today, realpolitik and powerful interest groups acts our their objective grabbing through governments (which are usually appointed by whoever controls popular opinion, again, a commodity you can buy if you have the means)

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“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein
 

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16 minutes ago, Gorth said:

The "Rules Based Order" is a bit of a myth, just like El Dorado. Enough repetition of the phrase and some people start thinking it exists. Let's be honest though, powerful countries do what they want, when it suits them and it benefits them. Nothing's changed since the fall of the western Roman Empire there. It's always an easier sell to your population if you can justify why a lot of the serfs have to die for their lord, but in the end, it's just a way of placating the masses.

Sometimes the justifications are easier to come by, sometimes they have to be manufactured and sometimes, countries just go "ah screw it, too much work" and do what they please (both England and France used to live by the credo might is right in the past). It's still very much the case today, realpolitik and powerful interest groups acts our their objective grabbing through governments (which are usually appointed by whoever controls popular opinion, again, a commodity you can buy if you have the means)

I wouldnt call  it a  myth,  I would say the outcomes of the rules  based  order cant  always be enforced  

But the rules exist  and they have to exist. And the entire belief  in the rules based order matters to any conflict  and how people reflect on it 

And the ICJ and  ICC are examples  of part of the rules  based order,  there are  no other institutions  to rule on  international crimes  without these institutions 

And I realize its  easy and probably correct to  say "large countries can do what they want " but the  rules  still  matter

Just take this case of Israel being taken to  the ICJ, I  dont know  how its been reflected on in Oz but in SA there  is lots of positive sentiment and support for the case and people saying things like  " SA has  finally given the world a conscience " and "  this is about highlighting our common humanity "

And I dont want to be negative and mention that the ICJ rulings arent binding, for example Russia  ignored  the ICJ to end the invasion of Ukraine 

So I do  understand the cynicism because there is legitimate point you making about a lack of action in the  case of the ICJ but as I mentioned it still matters  to the people  involved 

Imagine this,  the  UN is part  of the rules based order  and  that  includes   all its humanitarian institutions.  Think how immeasurably  worse  off the third  world  and impoverished  countries would be  without it 

Almost every single critical humanitarian mission in Africa or the ME  is funded and implemented  by the UN 

 

 

 

 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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ICJ judgements are binding (unless specified otherwise) but they're not enforceable. ie they don't have any way- short of the UNSC or similar- to enforce their decisions via a 'police force' equivalent. Non binding is similar practically, especially in these circumstances, but would not be enforced except voluntarily even if they had that 'police force' to do so.

Plenty of other institutions rule on international crimes too, like the UNSC. They didn't need the ICJ to rule that Iraq invading Kuwait was illegal, for instance.

 

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20 hours ago, Gorth said:

It's always an easier sell to your population if you can justify why a lot of the serfs have to die for their lord, but in the end, it's just a way of placating the masses.

The use of these phrases and terms nearly always contains an interesting detail, and I wonder if you agree with it. Simply put: it is fairly easy to make statements that have to do with "the masses", and you do indeed see it quite a lot, but people who use those terms don't consider themselves to be part of the masses. Which sort of raises the question of who are the masses, then.

I think this is a distant relative of the overarching cynicism that you can see plenty of on these forums, too, if you want. But only a distant relative: I don't think this is particularly malign. It is interesting, though.

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15 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

The use of these phrases and terms nearly always contains an interesting detail, and I wonder if you agree with it. Simply put: it is fairly easy to make statements that have to do with "the masses", and you do indeed see it quite a lot, but people who use those terms don't consider themselves to be part of the masses. Which sort of raises the question of who are the masses, then.

I think this is a distant relative of the overarching cynicism that you can see plenty of on these forums, too, if you want. But only a distant relative: I don't think this is particularly malign. It is interesting, though.

If it interests you, I do consider myself one of the masses. Hence why it p.....s me off no end when I feel constantly lied to and spend a lot of time and effort fending off attempts to deceive me ;)

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“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein
 

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56 minutes ago, Gorth said:

If it interests you, I do consider myself one of the masses. Hence why it p.....s me off no end when I feel constantly lied to and spend a lot of time and effort fending off attempts to deceive me ;)

Gorthfuscious if you ever worried about people deceiving you then ask me,  you know you can trust me  :thumbsup:

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"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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12 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

ICJ judgements are binding (unless specified otherwise) but they're not enforceable. ie they don't have any way- short of the UNSC or similar- to enforce their decisions via a 'police force' equivalent. Non binding is similar practically, especially in these circumstances, but would not be enforced except voluntarily even if they had that 'police force' to do so.

Plenty of other institutions rule on international crimes too, like the UNSC. They didn't need the ICJ to rule that Iraq invading Kuwait was illegal, for instance.

 

Yes, thats an important distinction.  I keep saying they not binding which is not true,  they not  enforceable 

And I make this same  point on Codex  which no one  has corrected.  But you right 

 

 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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1 hour ago, Gorth said:

If it interests you, I do consider myself one of the masses. Hence why it p.....s me off no end when I feel constantly lied to and spend a lot of time and effort fending off attempts to deceive me ;)

Could you give me an example of what you think to be a serious lie from recent times? I'm genuinely interested. My knowledge of Australian matters is not that good, but I would agree that the Australian government, for instance, is not one that inspires trust in me.

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10 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Could you give me an example of what you think to be a serious lie from recent times? I'm genuinely interested. My knowledge of Australian matters is not that good, but I would agree that the Australian government, for instance, is not one that inspires trust in me.

Just 50 from the world of domestic politics...

https://www.crikey.com.au/dossier-of-lies-and-falsehoods/

Then there are of course international politics... similar lists from Trump, The Bushes, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Modi, Bolsano etc... Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq? Brexit will be a net positive for the UK!, We will not invade Ukraine... etc. etc.

All in all, whenever a new state leader swears to serve his people (when he really means serving the interest groups that got him/her in power)

Then there are all the corporate ones...

Former and current CEO's of Boeing, most bank CEO's and the majority of their executives, local telco CEO's lying about data leaks, outages and impacts on emergency calls etc.

The church lying to the public for half a century and denying that the worlds largest pedophile ring is not doing anything wrong and diligently investigating claims to the opposite...

 

All of which only gets exposed because luckily some journalists still dig into these things.

Feel free to add to the list, but those were just what sprang to mind within the first 15 seconds. Could probably write a thesis if I felt like putting the effort into it.

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“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein
 

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37 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Just 50 from the world of domestic politics...

https://www.crikey.com.au/dossier-of-lies-and-falsehoods/

Then there are of course international politics... similar lists from Trump, The Bushes, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Modi, Bolsano etc... Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq? Brexit will be a net positive for the UK!, We will not invade Ukraine... etc. etc.

All in all, whenever a new state leader swears to serve his people (when he really means serving the interest groups that got him/her in power)

Then there are all the corporate ones...

Former and current CEO's of Boeing, most bank CEO's and the majority of their executives, local telco CEO's lying about data leaks, outages and impacts on emergency calls etc.

The church lying to the public for half a century and denying that the worlds largest pedophile ring is not doing anything wrong and diligently investigating claims to the opposite...

 

All of which only gets exposed because luckily some journalists still dig into these things.

Feel free to add to the list, but those were just what sprang to mind within the first 15 seconds. Could probably write a thesis if I felt like putting the effort into it.

Even though I disagree with your general  cynicism about the rules based order and global   politics I respect  your consistency and the examples  you listing

Because you can make a compelling argument irrespective if its true or not around every example you have given 

But a serious question, the systems we have are flawed  and  imperfect.  But whats the alternative to religious belief or even systems  of  Democracy. If you could wave a wand and immediately change anything in the world what would you change and the change must be sustainable and realistic?

So the real point is "yes we  have inconsistencies and failures in our modern age " but  whats  the alternative  to something like the UN or religious conviction that  helps most  people cope with there   problems in society?

 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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27 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Even though I disagree with your general  cynicism

It doesn't seem to me that he's being cynical; those examples he gave truly are very bad.

What's interesting is that things used to be a lot worse. For example, for a few months now, I have been involved in a work project concerning the history of the Mafia, going back to the feodal times. Essentially everything is a lot better now than it used to be; even the early 20th century was quite awful compared to what we have now (except for environmental problems).

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1 minute ago, xzar_monty said:

 

What's interesting is that things used to be a lot worse. For example, for a few months now, I have been involved in a work project concerning the history of the Mafia, going back to the feodal times. Essentially everything is a lot better now than it used to be; even the early 20th century was quite awful compared to what we have now (except for environmental problems).

Yes and I agree, things are generally much better  now in the  world  if you look at numerous metrics like people  living in absolute poverty, life expectancy or education levels  

So even though that's irrefutably true the positive side  of that  story tends  to get lost because people  tend to say things like "why do  I care about life 100 years ago,  I care about my salary now or the fact I cant own a house " or other similar things

But I agree,  the worlds a much better place than its ever been 

 

 

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"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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7 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

So even though that's irrefutably true the positive side  of that  story tends  to get lost

There is a general lack of historical knowledge, and positive things also don't tend to be news as such. Both of these factors contribute a lot. 9/11 is big news, long-term incremental improvement of essentially everything is not: there is never any Eureka moment.

But let's just consider things like infant surgery done without anaesthesia well into the 1980s. The past is a terrible, terrible place.

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On 1/25/2024 at 1:57 AM, BruceVC said:

 

But its  a relief you dont support  the  rules  based  order,  imagine how outraged  you  would be if you did believe  in it ;(

Just the general hypocrisy, after all the US wouldn't approve of other nations killing people they don't like on their soil, or assassinating their scientists, for example.

Zizek made a funny statement, about how when you make the rules, you never break them

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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https://www.barrons.com/news/germany-uncovers-russian-disinformation-campaign-on-x-report-7254cfa6

Another story of Russian disinformation but this occured in Germany 

 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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7 hours ago, Gorth said:

Then there are of course international politics... similar lists from Trump, The Bushes, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Modi, Bolsano etc...

And what of the lies of the Clintons and Obama and Biden?

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7 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

But let's just consider things like infant surgery done without anaesthesia well into the 1980s. The past is a terrible, terrible place.

Wouldnt this be a case of hindsight? IMO the surgeons of the 80's were doing the best they could with the current medical understanding of the times, and not purposely torturing babies. Im sure in 2068 theyll look back and be aghast at 2024 medical techniques.

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54 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Wouldnt this be a case of hindsight? IMO the surgeons of the 80's were doing the best they could with the current medical understanding of the times, and not purposely torturing babies. Im sure in 2068 theyll look back and be aghast at 2024 medical techniques.

I'm pretty sure, or at least I hope, that for something like this, you are correct. For other things like smoking and sugar, I think it has come out that those industries knew the dangers back in the 50s/60s.

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5 hours ago, kanisatha said:

And what of the lies of the Clintons and Obama and Biden?

I did *not* have sex with that woman…

True. No idea how notorious a liar the Biden government is. Obama probably benefits from “relativity” because it felt less awful than what came before and after?  But there was still something about extrajudicial international killings picking up under his watch…

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“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein
 

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On 1/26/2024 at 6:43 PM, Gfted1 said:

Wouldnt this be a case of hindsight? IMO the surgeons of the 80's were doing the best they could with the current medical understanding of the times, and not purposely torturing babies. Im sure in 2068 theyll look back and be aghast at 2024 medical techniques.

Yes. I did not suggest that there was any intentional torturing going on, only that things were radically different in a bad way.

One interesting question is whether the amount of serious deceit has increased or decreased, and that's quite hard to determine. But I would still say it has decreased, probably by a lot, although cultures obviously vary. Violence has clearly come down, and that's a good thing.

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https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/nato-societies-must-be-ready-war

 

Lot of articles from all over about how war with Russia is real soon. Although apparently Russia has been knocked back 18 years as well.

 

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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1 hour ago, Malcador said:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/nato-societies-must-be-ready-war

 

Lot of articles from all over about how war with Russia is real soon. Although apparently Russia has been knocked back 18 years as well.

Yeah, lots of similar articles in Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy as well. Main argument seems to be that as Russia and Putin get past their shock over how the war went at the beginning, and now see the war being successful for them (whether true or not), they are becoming more emboldened to push back against NATO, including renewing their core policy of trying to drive a wedge between Europe and the US.

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And apparently replacing him with Budanov?

Ah ok, denied as a rumour. Would be a head scratcher if true.

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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