Politics... US election edition (2020 almost over, read all about it!)

[Agiel]

For all those who are outraged that Trump's account has been suspended from Twitter I have to wonder if it has occurred to them that this is the ultimate expression of Milton Friedman's mantra of "the only moral obligation a corporation has is returning value to its shareholders".

[Skarpen]

8 minutes ago, Agiel said:

For all those who are outraged that Trump's account has been suspended from Twitter I have to wonder if it has occurred to them that this is the ultimate expression of Milton Friedman's mantra of "the only moral obligation a corporation has is returning value to its shareholders".

Great job on that front:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/twitter-stock-price-president-donald-trump-permanently-banned-tweeting-2021-1-1029946778

[Gromnir]

2 minutes ago, Skarpen said:

@Gromnir lol, you have the audacity to accuse someone that they imagine responses and makes attributions out of air when you basically do only that in between photo-op sessions

you do realize it is a fact the response were imagined seeing as how our contribution were posting a link and a direct quote. presume/assume a specific Gromnir response would therefore need be the result o' conjecture.

...

and we not need imagine skarp_0ne responses as you so readily leap forward and provide fodder. reflect before posting and you won't end up having your recent posted mistakes thrown back at you.

the most amusing part o' this recent silliness is that we have, on more than one occasion, opined that while the first amendment doesn't apply to boards such as this or platforms such as twitter, our signature quote from whitney v california applies equal to private as public speech fora. 

@Agiel you would think traditional conservatives would sympathize with a business acting to protect their brand by legal means free o' federal paternalism. brave new world.

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Elerond]

2014-2015 it was free speech to drive people from social media and force companies out of business because they expressed wrong view, but how things have changed now when those who then loudly supported such efforts are now targets of such 

[Darkpriest]

Looking at the outcome so far, protecting the brand backfired for Twitter's value. FB is next on the list. 

Google, Amazon and Apple are a bit more tricky, as they hold a lot of various aspects of the online/internet accessibility, hence they will be first targetted with regulations with short amount of time to implement them and heavy fine prospects. Too much regular business is locked and dependand of their infrastructures at the moment. 

Now, this might have some other consequences as well. Looking on the concentration of the capital on the stock market, it may result in a spectacular crash. I'm sure Russians and Chinese are already on their feet working their diplomatic core and lobbysts. If there is one thing that hurts US, that's their money and stocks. 

Funnily enough, it would be Trumps hill to die on, protecting the American business. 

Dems will have a hard time explaining to their base, why Bezos an his ilk from big corporations is something to fight for. 

[ComradeYellow]

9 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Dems will have a hard time explaining to their base, why Bezos an his ilk from big corporations is something to fight for. 

Boloney!  Dems have thoroughly embraced the corporate structure so long as they for share their viewpoints.  They wouldn't know proper left wing politics if it bit them in ass (which hopefully it will soon).

[Raithe]

 

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, Gromnir said:

and the circular silly continues. so we are back to forcing the random suit to publish against their will?

AWS is who they're suing though and they're a contract service provider, not a 'publisher' (sic, since both Apple and Google actively and strenuously disclaim being actual 'publishers'). Dunno, maybe that's a random quote off the internet too though.

For a non random quote off the internet:

Now of course Glenn could be wrong about that- personally I'd be surprised if some weren't Parler users, just from a pure statistics viewpoint- but then he's hardly the typical pro Trumper.

 

[rjshae]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

Looking at the outcome so far, protecting the brand backfired for Twitter's value. FB is next on the list. 

I doubt it will matter long term. Twitter will survive on the merits of the media platform it provides, not whether some twit is posting.

[Zoraptor]

Dunno if Twitter can survive on its merits though, it's far and away the most vulnerable* major social media platform. They have nowhere near the service breadth and integration/ lock in level of Facebook or Alphabet, and nowhere near the brand loyalty of Apple and they rely a lot on big name users to draw attention. They've had their relevance steadily nibbled away at already over the past few years, ironically often by Facebook etc. Even more ironically, Trump was great for their bottom line, because he got them lots of attention.

*Reddit might be as vulnerable, but it's also arguable if it would be counted as a 'major' platform in the same way as its model is different. It certainly doesn't rely on big name accounts nearly as much as Twitter does, and has way less mainstream exposure.

[Malcador]

Wonder what percentage of the invaders were actually arrested.  Pretty sure Greenwald's incorrect there, but I guess even he can be blinded by axe grinding.

3 hours ago, Raithe said:

 

Been some pretty funny videos out there of them reacting to being added or kicked off planes.  Funniest one today was an AA pilot telling people to settle down lest he drop them off in....KANSAS CITY. 

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Malcador

[Skarpen]

4 hours ago, rjshae said:

I doubt it will matter long term. Twitter will survive on the merits of the media platform it provides, not whether some twit is posting.

LOL. Great backpedaling technique there, skipper.

They did it for shareholders to turn profit!

They lost 5 billion dollars.

They will survive, you know, in the long run.

[Hiro Protagonist]

Retired Lt. Colonel Larry Brock in court in connection to siege at U.S. Capitol. Turned in by his ex-wife.

 

[Gromnir]

5 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

AWS is who they're suing though and they're a contract service provider, not a 'publisher' 

 

you do not understand what a "publisher" is from a legal standpoint. the protections afforded internet service providers regarding the speech o' posters who utilize the services o' big tech is 'cause those service providers is nevertheless publishers. being a step removed in the publishing or republishing process does not eliminate the appropriateness o' the publisher label. some degree o' insulation has been provided such publishers from legal liability, but is up to the publisher to decide how to protect their brand.

ignorance is not an excuse, but as you attack that hill we will serve as your helpful sherpa, keeping you from inevitably freezing to death as you scale heights far beyond your capacity. 

nevertheless, am congratulating you for genuine quoting us this time 'round instead of imagining what our statement might be. lesson learned: you are far less likely to blunder into comical mistake if you follow Gromnir's actual words and opinions instead o' attempting to divine based on your own projected shortcomings.

good for you. those baby steps will eventual carry you to enlightenment. 

aside:

Axe distances itself from body spray apparently left by Capitol rioter

"“AXE condemns yesterday's acts of violence and hate at the Capitol. We believe in the democratic process and the peaceful transition of power,” the company said."

HA! Good Fun!

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Gromnir

[Elerond]

50 minutes ago, Skarpen said:

LOL. Great backpedaling technique there, skipper.

They did it for shareholders to turn profit!

They lost 5 billion dollars.

They will survive, you know, in the long run.

They didn't actually lose 5 billion, share holders lose technically 5 billion because they wanted get rid of their stock even with under valued price. That does not effect on Twitter ability to work and it does not effect on how much profit it produces. So it is quite probable that Twitter's stock price will course correct in near future and make quite lot money those who bought those stocks that were now sold undervalued.

[Skarpen]

5 minutes ago, Elerond said:

They didn't actually lose 5 billion, share holders lose technically 5 billion because they wanted get rid of their stock even with under valued price. That does not effect on Twitter ability to work and it does not effect on how much profit it produces. So it is quite probable that Twitter's stock price will course correct in near future and make quite lot money those who bought those stocks that were now sold undervalued.

They did it so shareholders would turn a profit.

Shareholders lost 5 billion $ worth of their stock value.
They might turn out a profit in the future.

[Hiro Protagonist]

Twitter's share price was lower back in Nov 2020 than it is now and even lower back in March when the share market crashed. Over the course of the last 12 months, it's actually higher that it was this time last year. Overall, I think Twitter will be okay.

[Hiro Protagonist]

This is a great clip from 60 Minutes (USA) showing absolutely no electoral fraud in Georgia and how the official explains what Rudy Giuliani cherry picks from the surveillance video.

 

[Darkpriest]

Hmm, look at Twitter pre-Trump era. 

You need to take also into account, the overvalued stocks of tech comapnies due to covid reality (look at the sharp increase in stock value of the whole Nasdaq post March) 

 

There will be a hard reality check for Twitter and its value. 

[Gromnir]

22 minutes ago, Hiro Protagonist said:

Twitter's share price was lower back in Nov 2020 than it is now and even lower back in March when the share market crashed. Over the course of the last 12 months, it's actually higher that it was this time last year. Overall, I think Twitter will be okay.

 

agreed. 

and from a pure cynical pov, twitter and other social media platforms recognize they exist as private enterprises at the sufferance o' the government. given the changing political landscape, as well as the recent events at the Capitol, damage control efforts make sense. as we noted already, from a legal pov, these folks is publishers regardless o' whether they is providing services direct or indirect, and such makes 'em subject to tort liability save for the protections they is given by government, and those protections were/are not carved in stone existing into perpetuity.

given the changing winds o' public opinion, social media platforms and providers recognize the  difference 'tween a hawk and a handsaw. the predictable post mortem o' the Capitol riot, as well as the trump administration itself, is gonna result in many persons and organizations being blamed for involvement and/or lack o' reasonable oversight. get out ahead o' the backlash and make a show o' being responsible is gonna win some sympathy for the providers even if their efforts is belated and mercenary as 'posed to altruistic.

social media platforms and those who provide infrastructure o' social media is aware their current business model, which as one may see from the graph has been quite profitable, is in danger o' being subject to lefty-flavored intrusive government regulation, even though such regulation is ironic being championed most earnest from the right.  a cynical person would observe the recent response as an extreme calculated effort to maintain the status quo... which am thinking is the reasonable way to read the situation.

twitter and amazon and others know exact what they are doing and a short-term loss is deemed acceptable when balanced 'gainst maintaining the status quo.  

HA! Good Fun!

[Elerond]

7 minutes ago, Skarpen said:

They did it so shareholders would turn a profit.

Shareholders lost 5 billion $ worth of their stock value.
They might turn out a profit in the future.

They can do it for profit, meaning business profit and still lose stock value because share holders don't believe their estimate or because of ideological reasons or for some other reasons. But stock lose value when people just sell stock regardless of sell value. As now twitter is losing stock value not because how well they are able to produce actual profit as business but because of outside reason, which usually means that stock value will bounce back. But any way companies don't really can effect their stock value because that is based on purely on estimated value that stock buyers feel how much company's worth is. Also because of these speculative value of stocks, shareholders stock value is only speculative especially if you they own big share of company as usually they can't sell their stock on market value as if you aim to get rid of large share you usually need to sell under market value if company's stock isn't in massive demand for some reason (like some bigger company is buying its stocks on fixed price etc.)

So even though now speculative value of Twitter's share holder is down compared to what it was last week, this is good opportunity for those shareholders that remain and new investors to buy Twitter's stock when it is down make some profit in next month or two when stock most likely returns to its last week value, although Twitter's stock already gained back yesterday almost half that it lost and Twitter's stock is still in almost bubble high price (42% share price increase in last 6 months like most of other tech US stocks) so in long term investing it would not surprise me if there is big drop in stock prices when Corona relief bubble pops. 

[Zoraptor]

meh, not worth it.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Zoraptor

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, Elerond said:

 

So even though now speculative value of Twitter's share holder is down compared to what it was last week..

Speculative, but not wholly so, and outside reason, but also not wholly so. Trump did drive a huge amount of traffic, he gave Twitter an enormous amount of relevance, he was with very little doubt its single biggest drawcard. Even if people didn't like him they wanted to see what he'd say next and generally what he'd say would be on Twitter- that's gone now. Trump as President buffered the losses twitter was suffering to the likes of instagram/ tiktok/ whatsapp/ telegram/ fb etc because that was where he made the news and if you wanted to see it and interact with it you had to be on twitter. You can scarcely overestimate how much of twitter's traffic has been Trump related over the past 5 years, and even more so how much of its engagement- critical for ad revenue- has been driven by it. Some of that will stay even without him directly driving it, but let's be frank, Joe Biden isn't going to be a replacement in that respect. He just isn't that sort of guy, and for Twitter that's a big problem.

Fundamentally, Twitter is not a great bet. As I said previous it doesn't have either breadth of service nor lock ins that other SM have and which drive their use. Its (active) user base is fine in terms of absolute numbers- it's artificially boosted, but then so is every SM- but even with Trump it had pretty bad overall engagement and that will now get even worse. It's been somewhat profitable in 2018-9, but nowhere near enough to make up for how unprofitable it had been beforehand. And it seems to be heading for a significant loss for financial 2020 again- small profit for Q3, but big loss- 1.4Bn- for the first six months of 2020.

I'd agree that it's pretty much impossible to say what the true value of Twitter is in the current environment of quantitative easing and ~0% interest rates. When the money being invested starts being real again is when the actual reckoning, if any, will happen.

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Speculative, but not wholly so, and outside reason, but also not wholly so. Trump did drive a huge amount of traffic, he gave Twitter an enormous amount of relevance, he was with very little doubt its single biggest drawcard. Even if people didn't like him they wanted to see what he'd say next and generally what he'd say would be on Twitter- that's gone now. Trump as President buffered the losses twitter was suffering to the likes of instagram/ tiktok/ whatsapp/ telegram/ fb etc because that was where he made the news and if you wanted to see it and interact with it you had to be on twitter. You can scarcely overestimate how much of twitter's traffic has been Trump related over the past 5 years, and even more so how much of its engagement- critical for ad revenue- has been driven by it. Some of that will stay even without him directly driving it, but let's be frank, Joe Biden isn't going to be a replacement in that respect. He just isn't that sort of guy, and for Twitter that's a big problem.

Fundamentally, Twitter is not a great bet. As I said previous it doesn't have either breadth of service nor lock ins that other SM have and which drive their use. Its (active) user base is fine in terms of absolute numbers- it's artificially boosted, but then so is every SM- but even with Trump it had pretty bad overall engagement and that will now get even worse. It's been somewhat profitable in 2018-9, but nowhere near enough to make up for how unprofitable it had been beforehand. And it seems to be heading for a significant loss for financial 2020 again- small profit for Q3, but big loss- 1.4Bn- for the first six months of 2020.

I'd agree that it's pretty much impossible to say what the true value of Twitter is in the current environment of quantitative easing and ~0% interest rates. When the money being invested starts being real again is when the actual reckoning, if any, will happen.

It is mostly speculative.

In July Twitter's stock price was $33.82, in December it topped in $55.87, last week high was $54.38, just Friday before fall it was  $51.48 and then it dropped to $45.67 and it is now $48.16. Twitters all time top is from 2013, when it reached $69.00

Big draws don't necessary bring Twitter's much of money because of how their ad model (and how ad models generally in internet work) works. For Twitter best users are those buy stuff based on ads shown and interact with tweets about companies, products and services. Big sunk of twitter users are just expenditure for Twitter as they don't interact with ad tweets and they are too passive in that Twitter would be monetize selling their browsing history.

[Gromnir]

Six hours of paralysis: Inside Trump’s failure to act after a mob stormed the Capitol

The president, too, ended his speech with an exhortation, urging the crowd to give Republicans “the kind of pride and boldness that they need to take back our country.”

“So let’s walk down Pennsylvania Avenue,” he concluded.

Trump, however, did not join the angry crowd surging toward the Capitol. Instead, he returned to the White House, where at 2:24 p.m. he tapped out a furious tweet railing against Vice President Pence, who in a letter earlier in the day had made clear that he planned to fulfill his constitutional duties and certify President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala D. Harris as the winners of the 2020 electoral college vote.

“Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution, giving States a chance to certify a corrected set of facts, not the fraudulent or inaccurate ones which they were asked to previously certify,” he wrote. “USA demands the truth!”

By then, West Wing staffers monitoring initial videos of the protesters on TV and social media were already worried that the situation was escalating and felt that Trump’s tweet attacking Pence was unhelpful.

...

Amid the chaos, D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) had implemented a 6 p.m. curfew for the city, and as darkness fell, the Secret Service told West Wing staff that, save for an essential few, everyone had to leave the White House and go home.

At 6:01 p.m., Trump blasted out yet another tweet, which Twitter quickly deleted and which many in his orbit were particularly furious about, fearing he was further inflaming the still-tense situation.

“These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so ­unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long,” Trump wrote. “Go home with love & in peace. Remember this day forever!”

HA! Good Fun!