Politics, local-national-global-galactic

[Skarpen]

2 hours ago, ktchong said:

After Trump had taken over the Republican party, neocons like Bloomberg and John Bolton have been forced to either bend their knees to Trump -- or out of the Republican party. So neocons are looking for a new home. Bloomberg is making a leveraged buyout and hostile takeover of the Democratic Party, to turn it into the new home for neocon refugees. If Bloomberg successfully wins the nomination, he will take over the Democratic Party. Then, America will end up with a two-party system in which BOTH parties will be conservative: a Trump party, and a neocon party. It will be the end of liberal and progressive politics in America.

Well since Dems are all about the refugees and immigrants they should welcome them with open arms.

[Maedhros]

On 2/20/2020 at 10:21 AM, Gromnir said:

Too long to quote

You make some fair points, and I do understand that the US is different, with most of you being "temporarily upset capitalists" and happy with that. I just don't think a stronger welfare state would hinder any opportunity, quite the opposite. You can perfectly well sell "opportunity" and "happiness" hand in hand.

https://evonomics.com/where-in-the-world-is-it-easiest-to-get-rich/

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying you should turn into Scandinavia, because there are clearly different challenges over there that we don't have (size and diversity, among other things). But I think investing in your populace (education, healthcare, etc) will more likely than not give returns. GD said something earlier about the massive debt making it impossible to spend any more money on welfare (or something like that?). But you need to spend money to make money.

Edited February 21, 2020 by Maedhros

[pmp10]

9 hours ago, Maedhros said:

I just don't think a stronger welfare state would hinder any opportunity, quite the opposite.

A society is a zero-sum game.
One man's safety net could have been another's man ladder.

[Maedhros]

3 hours ago, pmp10 said:

A society is a zero-sum game.
One man's safety net could have been another's man ladder.

Thousands of people's safety nets are ladders for them, and the one man still has his ladder (and even a safety net to catch him if he falls of it). More bakers, more cake, and less rat food - as shown in the article.

Less income inequality, same opportunity to get rich, a better society where people can relate more to each other. Maybe you won't get as many Jeff Bezoses, but you won't have all his underpaid workers either.

Edited February 22, 2020 by Maedhros

[Gfted1]

Do Norway's welfare services have any time limit? Or can a person "make a career" of living off them?

[Maedhros]

1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:

Do Norway's welfare services have any time limit? Or can a person "make a career" of living off them?

You definitely can, and there are more than a few who try to abuse the system. It's sometimes hard to seperate those with the ones who are actually unable to work and need support. (Fatigue syndromes etc)

[HoonDing]

I have no issue with a liberal communist becoming president

 

2nd amendment ppl will take care of it

[ComradeYellow]

14 minutes ago, HoonDing said:

I have no issue with a liberal communist becoming president

 

2nd amendment ppl will take care of it

I'd say the military and police are far more effective than patriarchal nutjobs stockpiled with small arms.

[pmp10]

9 hours ago, Maedhros said:

Thousands of people's safety nets are ladders for them, and the one man still has his ladder...

That ladder now only leads into someones bottom. 
A bottom held unmovingly in place by a safety net. 
The reality is that many people deserve their falls just as others deserve a chance to climb.

[Gromnir]

9 hours ago, Maedhros said:

 

Less income inequality, same opportunity to get rich, a better society where people can relate more to each other. Maybe you won't get as many Jeff Bezoses, but you won't have all his underpaid workers either.

sorry, but it ain't true that opportunity is equal.

us doesn't have a historic class o' aristocrats or similar such, and 30 million is a kinda arbitrary number to choose. am honest not sure where your graphic comes from 'cause is an outlier. top 3 countries with share o' millionaires by population is switzerland, hong kong and then the USA. norway just cracks the top 10.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/camilomaldonado/2019/10/23/credit-suisse-top-1-own-nearly-50-of-global-wealth-and-chinas-wealthy-now-outnumber-americas/#389a97e32ede

please note income inequality numbers as well. take a looksee where denmark and sweden rank.

and norway?

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/nor/

isn't even a true service-based economy.

were a comical epic fail on these board some years ago with the posting o' a bloomberg graphic which compared russia to norway insofar as currency collapse during a petroleum nose dive. graphic were attempting to show how much worse russia suffered than norway and such point were complete lost on the poster. however, the reason for the mistake were 'cause the trajectory o' currency fail were similar between russia and norway. no, norway ain't as vulnerable to petroleum fluctuations as is russia, but is not gonna be a meaningful comparison to any diverse and service-based economy. 

norway?

HA! Good Fun!

[Skarpen]

16 minutes ago, ComradeMaster said:

I'd say the military and police are far more effective than patriarchal nutjobs stockpiled with small arms.

Are you sure those populations don't overlap?

[ComradeYellow]

40 minutes ago, Skarpen said:

Are you sure those populations don't overlap?

The majority of police and military will remain loyal to the government, yes.

There's always exceptions though, just to make it interesting.

[213374U]

Funny that the US doesn't have a nominal historic landed aristocracy, and yet, social mobility is worse than in many countries that do.

[Guard Dog]

2 hours ago, HoonDing said:

I have no issue with a liberal communist becoming president

 

2nd amendment ppl will take care of it

There is no guarantee the liberal commie would even be a threat to the 2nd Amend. The biggest threat to gun rights is Bloomberg 

[Gromnir]

just gut intuition by #s?

in any event...

the last 30 years has indeed seen a dramatic increase in income inequality in the USA and many o' the causes is global. all those manufacturing jobs which went to emerging economies dependent on cheap labor has not resulted in a fundamental change in US education and workforce development. isn't much the US can do 'bout cheap labor elsewhere, but has been ineffectual and pathetic attempts to respond to such changes.

the great recession, which started not in the US btw, were also a major hit to income inequality from which the US has not genuine recovered. businesses trimmed fat or utter collapsed and the shift in labor has been towards more education and more specialization. simultaneous, and this should be no surprise, but those hurt most by recession were those already in debt. those folks with disposable income were able to buy debt and property o' those struggling just to survive. Gromnir literal bought foreclosure properties on courthouse steps for nickels and dimes on the dollar. 

oh, and obamacare made income inequality worse. those low skill but full-time jobs were disappeared in part as a response to obamacare requiring employers to provide healthcare coverage for full-time employees. replace such jobs with contractor and part-time exacerbated labor issues.

stock market has indeed experienced substantial prolonged growth, but again, with so many shifted into poverty by disappearance o' manufacturing jobs and by the dramatic impact o' the recession, only a small percentage o' folks were able to take advantage o' such. in the last 19 months alone, we have seen equity on property jump by a considerable amount and we made 600k off o' what were then $2.25 million. those at lower end o' economic spectrum is struggling with crippling debt while top 1% is enjoying massive growth.

taxes? well one obvious issue is capital gains. low US capital gains tax had been universal applauded by democrats and republicans 'cause so many people were overinvested in their home, and as shocking as it may be, the average time 'tween sale o' house for typical american is 'bout 5-6 years. were not an aristocrat thing by any means. keep capital gains tax low meant every homeowner would keep more equity when selling her home. recent 30 years has seen homeownership change substantial... and in spite o' the recession, new home owners, as a group, is still buying way 'bove their means. 

bipartisan efforts at deregulation exacerbated aforementioned issues.

etc.

*shrug*

HA! Good Fun!

[ComradeYellow]

33 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

There is no guarantee the liberal commie would even be a threat to the 2nd Amend. The biggest threat to gun rights is Bloomberg 

I think he's under the impression that pro 2nd amendment people and people who lean socially and economy left-ish are mutually exclusive.

I also don't think this is the case writ large but you can't deny the misconception is there.

[Gromnir]

38 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

There is no guarantee the liberal commie would even be a threat to the 2nd Amend. The biggest threat to gun rights is Bloomberg 

the biggest threat to gun rights is predictable tragedy. sure, gun violence is doled out most consistent by handgun users shooting people they know, but a couple mass shootings with "assault rifles" targeting children or crowds o' innocent bystanders is the stuff which motivates the otherwise ambivalent masses to cry outrage. is not reasonable, but is predictable. 

HA! Good Fun!

ps one more quick observation 'bout income inequality. the US has had a cyclical capital v. labor tension since the founding. check on US miner riots o' early 20th century for perspective. what is weird 'bout 2020 is that angry labor has chosen  a skeevy and self-interested capitalist to champion their cause? how does that happen? 

[Maedhros]

3 hours ago, Gromnir said:

sorry, but it ain't true that opportunity is equal.

us doesn't have a historic class o' aristocrats or similar such, and 30 million is a kinda arbitrary number to choose. am honest not sure where your graphic comes from 'cause is an outlier. top 3 countries with share o' millionaires by population is switzerland, hong kong and then the USA. norway just cracks the top 10.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/camilomaldonado/2019/10/23/credit-suisse-top-1-own-nearly-50-of-global-wealth-and-chinas-wealthy-now-outnumber-americas/#389a97e32ede

please note income inequality numbers as well. take a looksee where denmark and sweden rank.

and norway?

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/nor/

isn't even a true service-based economy.

were a comical epic fail on these board some years ago with the posting o' a bloomberg graphic which compared russia to norway insofar as currency collapse during a petroleum nose dive. graphic were attempting to show how much worse russia suffered than norway and such point were complete lost on the poster. however, the reason for the mistake were 'cause the trajectory o' currency fail were similar between russia and norway. no, norway ain't as vulnerable to petroleum fluctuations as is russia, but is not gonna be a meaningful comparison to any diverse and service-based economy. 

norway?

HA! Good Fun!

It's not equal, it's probably easier in Scandinavia. We're just not as obsessed with the "American Dream", so your millionaire numbers are probably more correct than the ones I found. However:

https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-social-mobility-index-2020-why-economies-benefit-from-fixing-inequality

 

I also checked income equality numbers, because I'm very certain Sweden and Denmark doesn't have similar problems as the US there (or at least not to the same extent). OECD data seems to confirm that:  https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm

I don't intend for this to be a d*** measuring contest, I genuinly just think the US would be better off with more impulses from the Nordic welfare system. (We own a lot of stocks in the US too, so you guys doing well is in our interest!)

 

Edited February 22, 2020 by Maedhros

[Skarpen]

2 hours ago, ComradeMaster said:

The majority of police and military will remain loyal to the government, yes.

That will order them to shoot their own people? That's usually a hard sell.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

2 hours ago, 213374U said:

Funny that the US doesn't have a nominal historic landed aristocracy, and yet, social mobility is worse than in many countries that do.

I was drinking last night and ended up having a conversation with a guy about how technically true facts ended up making how nothing had really changed. It was either profound or my drunk memory is rose tinted.

[Zoraptor]

3 hours ago, Gromnir said:

were a comical epic fail on these board some years ago with the posting o' a bloomberg graphic which compared russia to norway insofar as currency collapse during a petroleum nose dive. graphic were attempting to show how much worse russia suffered than norway and such point were complete lost on the poster. however, the reason for the mistake were 'cause the trajectory o' currency fail were similar between russia and norway. no, norway ain't as vulnerable to petroleum fluctuations as is russia, but is not gonna be a meaningful comparison to any diverse and service-based economy.

No the reason was, as you were told at the time- 2014, when lest we forget you were claiming Russia would be bankrupt inside a year despite their 600 billion in reserves- that Norway has a trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund for 5 million people and they could literally go on a countrywide holiday for years on that, if they wanted to. Of course Norway is less effected than Russia by oil prices in exactly the same way someone with 200k in the bank is less effected by food prices or rent rises or wage changes or being fired than someone with 4k- they have $200k in the bank. The actual 'point' though was that US sanctions had near zero effect compared to the oil price on Russia's economy and currency, and by that point your internal logical inconsistencies had so thoroughly confused yourself that you posted something that supported rather than opposed that, as I pointed out. The counter argument that exposed your economic naivete, again, was Nigeria, but for some reason your recollections stop before that. All you did was just make the point for me. I think I even thanked you for it at the time.

Sadly the problem isn't just that you're so often ignorant in economics, it's that you're ignorant and won't take basic instruction or correction from those more knowledgeable and insist on defending your position even six years later when you've been proved completely wrong, by history itself. Guess I should take small mercies, and be glad you're not still claiming that Richter is the only measure of earthquakes nine years later, or that New Zealand is exactly like Dakota, there are very few rabbits here and you can go hunting with a revolver that fires quicker than a semi automatic AK or AR15*, because you watched a youtube video or two.

*and so we don't get your favourite tactic of deliberately misinterpreting what others say again, I know that AR15s aren't automatic; but some AK models are hence the disambiguation.

[213374U]

27 minutes ago, KaineParker said:

I was drinking last night and ended up having a conversation with a guy about how technically true facts ended up making how nothing had really changed. It was either profound or my drunk memory is rose tinted.

whynotboth.gif

I don't know, seems to me that more and more discussions get bogged down in interpretation of data and methodological technicalities because every tom, **** and harry on social media can always come up with statistics to "prove" that average temperatures in Alaska and Florida are about the same. So it's not just getting at what's technically true that's an uphill battle, but also deciding whether it's significant.

One should only trust statistics that they have doctored themselves and so on, but I'm pretty sure that solipsism is an intellectual cul-de-sac.

TL;DR: At times I wonder why I have given up drink.

[Guard Dog]

@Gromnir True the biggest threat to anything is the inability of humans to behave. It's why we can't have nice things.

[Gromnir]

1 hour ago, Maedhros said:

 

I don't intend for this to be a d*** measuring contest, I genuinly just think the US would be better off with more impulses from the Nordic welfare system. (We own a lot of stocks in the US too, so you guys doing well is in our interest!)

 

your graphic with the outlier comparative numbers were by definition a measuring contest, and our recent post regarding factors leading to income inequality in the US recognizes just how difficult it has become to advance in the past 30 years, so am not sure what your point is other the generalized notion that a nordic welfare state = good/better. 

am not disagreeing the US needs change to address income inequality. have said so multiple times as emphatic as possible. however, use misleading numbers and norway in particular serves little purpose.

as for zor continued misrepresentations. for the thousandth time, we quoted harvard economists who pointed out how w/o drastic measures russia would have currency collapse w/i a general time frame as a response to your ridiculous belief russia would laugh off various sanctions because o' their reserves. reserves which were indeed drastic reduced while austerity measures were implemented and large numbers o' russians dropped below even russia's poverty line. russia were not laughing off sanctions and their reserves didn't save 'em from taking extreme measures to avoid complete collapse, a collapse which may have actual been better in the long run as prolonged anemic growth and even negatives has 'em functional languishing even further than we expected and no real changes has been made to their petroleum based economy.

as for your norway misrep and other laundry list o' gripes...

*groan*

am only surprised you left out a few o' your more colorful wrong grievances. misrepresenting ar-15s and the new zealand need for high rate o' fire to stem the bunny apocalypse, being just a couple more comical but minor blunders by zor in recent years.

you wanna indulge your revisionist fantasies once again? zor is pretty much the only one who doesn't realize how past efforts have gone, but be our guest. 

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Guard Dog]

As far as economic mobility goes the life you lead had a lot to do with the decisions you make. Like I have often said no one chooses to be broke. But not doing something about it is a choice.

When I got out of the service I started a business performing test equipment  repair, sales, calibration and certification. The business went nowhere. I had trouble finding business even giving the calibration service for free. After two years it was over. I had no income, $70k in losses, over $40k in debt, and to top the lot my wife left me and took her income with her. I was dead broke. I won't lie, I didn't take it well but after a few months I pulled myself together, worked two jobs AND used my GI Bill to complete my degree. In five years I completed school, had a job with a good income and was out of debt. I chose to do what had to be done. 

Not pursuing an education of some kind is a choice we make. Not trying to improve your lot is a choice you make. It still might not work out. You can do everything right and still not get the outcome you hope for. That is life... It ain't fair. But generally speaking if you are smart with your money and life choices you will come out ahead. 

There are dozens of not hundreds of options available to people who want to help themselves in the USA. But they are not handed to you. You have to work for them. But as I have said too many starving people will turn down hamburger because it wasn't steak.