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New Scientific Discoveries, Part Drei

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2 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

You guys are so fusion skeptical! When this finally happens, its going to be a watershed moment for humanity.

 

yeah, when... xD


I'm the enemy, 'cause I like to think, I like to read. I'm into freedom of speech, and freedom of choice. I'm the kinda guy that likes to sit in a greasy spoon and wonder, "Gee, should I have the T-bone steak or the jumbo rack of barbecue ribs with the side-order of gravy fries?" I want high cholesterol! I wanna eat bacon, and butter, and buckets of cheese, okay?! I wanna smoke a Cuban cigar the size of Cincinnati in the non-smoking section! I wanna run naked through the street, with green Jell-O all over my body, reading Playboy magazine. Why? Because I suddenly may feel the need to, okay, pal? I've SEEN the future. Do you know what it is? It's a 47-year-old virgin sitting around in his beige pajamas, drinking a banana-broccoli shake, singing "I'm an Oscar Meyer Wiene"

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1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:

You guys are so fusion skeptical! When this finally happens, its going to be a watershed moment for humanity.

Once it's weaponized, we'll know it's legit.

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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3 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

You guys are so fusion skeptical! When this finally happens, its going to be a watershed moment for humanity.

I never saw that movie with Keanu Reeves about cold fusion, so I don't know what to think. :ermm:

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https://earthsky.org/space/new-natural-temporary-moon-for-earth-2020-cd3

Earth has a new mini-moon or "moonlet", a small asteroid that was captured into the Earth's orbit 3 years ago. (...Note: it's really, really, tiny, but since it is a natural body and has apparently been captured by the Earth, it technically qualifies as a moon, as there isn't really a size minimum for a moon).

Edited by Bartimaeus
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am personal not the least bit skeptical o' fusion

is not as if we know for certain, but by all accounts, a fission device (bomb) is required to start the fusion reaction in an h-bomb. overcoming the electrostatic forces necessary to bring 'bout fusion is requiring massive temps/pressure.

a controlled fusion reaction, when achieved, will be genuine monumental. every couple o' years someone claims to be right on the cusp o' achieving. is good to keep looking for solutions to problems.

cold fusion, on the other hand, is just stoopid.

HA! Good Fun!

 


"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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14 hours ago, Keyrock said:

 

 

Alas, I was born too early to become a space trucker. Instead, I am a lowly terrestrial trucker. ;(

You should totes go look at the movie to take the edge off. 😌


Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary. - H.L. Mencken

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ten trends that will shape science in the 2020s

keep in mind, President bush had funding and plans for a 2020 return to the moon, before obama gutted nasa. is advisable to be dubious 'bout anticipated milestones for government funded space initiatives.

am also less concerned with morality o' ai issues as 'posed to more practical concerns regarding impact on the existing workforce. much as automation has replaced human workers (albeit slower than one mighta expected,) am anticipating ai will do similar for many white collar jobs in the next decades. computers/ai has advanced at a much faster rate than has industrialization and automation, so am curious to see how we deal with large portions o' workforce becoming irrelevant.

HA! Good Fun! 

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"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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9 hours ago, Gromnir said:

am also less concerned with morality o' ai issues as 'posed to more practical concerns regarding impact on the existing workforce. much as automation has replaced human workers (albeit slower than one mighta expected,) am anticipating ai will do similar for many white collar jobs in the next decades. computers/ai has advanced at a much faster rate than has industrialization and automation, so am curious to see how we deal with large portions o' workforce becoming irrelevant.

HA! Good Fun! 

In 2009 I was a RF Performance engineer for AT&T. I was replaced by a computer program called Quantum.  You already know what happened to me. A small severance package and a swift kick in the ass as I walked out the door. Fear of layoff has always been one of my driving forces to control my own business.  Of course, these days you could say I went in a different direction to avoid it.  


"Don't blame me! I voted for Kodos!"

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ok, this is an old article (2007) and keep in mind influenza is NOT coronavirus. nevertheless, given how there has been so much guesswork regarding the transmissibility and lethality o' coronavirus, we were reminded how it were startling recent that science actual achieved an understanding o' influenza transmissibility factors, and such revelation were the result o' one researcher in early 2006 combing through old research papers regarding previous flu outbreaks and by coincidence noting a line 'bout guinea pigs.

Study: Cold, dry air favors spread of flu in lab animals

"The researchers used guinea pigs because they learned from a medical journal that guinea pigs kept for research purposes in 1919 at a New Mexico army base died during the 1918 flu pandemic, Peter Palese, a Mt. Sinai virologist and senior author of the study, said in a report today from New Scientist, a British science and technology magazine.

""We didn't know guinea pigs got the flu. They are no longer popular lab animals, and no one had tried them," he told New Scientist."

in spite o' what conspiracy theorists might tell you, human testing o' diseases is kinda frowned 'pon. seeing as how influenza don't affect most traditional lab animals such as mice and rats, scientists were kinda at a standstill insofar as clinical studies o' transmissibility factors for flu.  as such, as hard as it might be to believe, flu transmissibility were not being studied under laboratory conditions until 2006-2007.  

as an aside, coronavirus appears to be at least 20x more lethal than flu, though mortality rates has actual been a bit higher in china (3% being the current reported rate) and much higher in iran (8%-18%?) making it difficult to assess relative dangers if genuine pandemic levels occur. current, depending on severity o' flu season, 'tween 20k and 60k people die each year from seasonal flu in the US. transmissibility factors for current coronavirus appears to be the result o' guesswork and real world observation as 'posed to lab testing, so am gonna assume guinea pigs is not subject to the current coronavirus strain. 

speaking o' transmissibility, US abject stupidity insofar as customary norms o' when it is appropriate to go to work while sick could make it more difficult to combat a coronavirus outbreak. how many o' us has gone to work when we nevertheless believed we felt as if we might have the flu? didn't have sick days or we were needed at work or were relatively new at job and knew taking a day off for any reason short o' death would be frowned 'pon? stoopid. again, 20k-60k die every year from flu and coronavirus is at least 20x more lethal.

HA! Good Fun!

ps those masks which people is reflexive wearing when a new flu-like virus spreads does little to prevent you from catching disease, but does help present spread if you already have disease. 

Edited by Gromnir

"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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21 hours ago, Gromnir said:

as an aside, coronavirus appears to be at least 20x more lethal than flu, though mortality rates has actual been a bit higher in china (3% being the current reported rate) and much higher in iran (8%-18%?) making it difficult to assess relative dangers if genuine pandemic levels occur.  

Seasonal, yes. The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic seems to have had a comparable ~3% mortality rate. Additionally, unlike coronavirus, most fatalities were young adults because it gave healthy people a funny immune reaction.

The 8-18% death rate in Iran is from BBC "original" reporting. While It may be healthy (pun not intended) to take official figures with a grain of salt, I wouldn't trust the Beeb farther than I can throw Jonathan Ross. More likely that the lower estimate, around 8%, reflects infection cases being underreported by the Iranian authorities, than assume that the lethality of the disease has somehow increased only inside of Iran while remaining within stable margins everywhere else.

As for masks, I've been thinking of getting a Soviet-era gas mask replica to put on while commuting. For funsies.

...

In other news, KABOOM!

Astronomers detect biggest explosion in the history of the universe


- When he is best, he is a little worse than a man, and when he is worst, he is little better than a beast.

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Is that 3% mortality for infection or world population? Because most of the figures I've seen have a 8-10% mortality rate for those infected by Spanish Flu, with about a quarter of the world's population at the time being infected. The covid19 figures are for death rate of infected, so about 1/3 the rate of Spanish Flu rather than the same.

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On 2/29/2020 at 5:32 AM, Gromnir said:

am also less concerned with morality o' ai issues as 'posed to more practical concerns regarding impact on the existing workforce. much as automation has replaced human workers (albeit slower than one mighta expected,) am anticipating ai will do similar for many white collar jobs in the next decades. computers/ai has advanced at a much faster rate than has industrialization and automation, so am curious to see how we deal with large portions o' workforce becoming irrelevant.

The technology used for current machine learning software has been around for decades. Up until recently we just didn't have the data or computing power to make use of them. That's why all this essentially started with image recognition "AI"s, with the advent of social media researches suddenly had access to millions upon millions of properly labeled images and could start to train their algorithms to say "banana" when something elongated, curved and yellow was to be seen in the picture.

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20 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Is that 3% mortality for infection or world population? Because most of the figures I've seen have a 8-10% mortality rate for those infected by Spanish Flu, with about a quarter of the world's population at the time being infected. The covid19 figures are for death rate of infected, so about 1/3 the rate of Spanish Flu rather than the same.

Hmm. The figure I was referencing is the case fatality ratio I read in The Lancet. WHO has a number in the ballpark of that too.

CDC, however, claims that "It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States." which matches the 10% you mentioned. This seems to be unsourced, however.

Digging a bit, apparently the 2-3% cfr I was working with is an old number from before revised estimates put the total death toll at 50-100 million worldwide.

 


- When he is best, he is a little worse than a man, and when he is worst, he is little better than a beast.

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On 3/2/2020 at 8:22 AM, majestic said:

The technology used for current machine learning software has been around for decades. Up until recently we just didn't have the data or computing power to make use of them. That's why all this essentially started with image recognition "AI"s, with the advent of social media researches suddenly had access to millions upon millions of properly labeled images and could start to train their algorithms to say "banana" when something elongated, curved and yellow was to be seen in the picture.

Feral bananas or EU standard bananas? Maybe the EU commission is in the market for an AI system that will check produce for rules conformity. AI talking to a banana with model like measures... "resistance if futile, you will be assimilated" 🤔

 


“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

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1 minute ago, Gorth said:

Feral bananas or EU standard bananas? Maybe the EU commission is in the market for an AI system that will check produce for rules conformity. AI talking to a banana with model like measures... "resistance if futile, you will be assimilated" 🤔

Eh. I know I should just laugh but the nitpicker in me wants to point out that this is more like a job for industrial automation than... eh... never mind. :p

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