Gromnir

the ruling in the birthright citizenship case, which did not address in anyway what constitutes US citizenship, will have almost no impact on the birthright citizenship case, which am gonna guess has already been refiled to get around the arcane procedural issue scotus identified. however, for a large number o' other trump administration actions, this is a game changer. am pressed for time, so can't give it the time it deserves, but the point is that today's 6-3 birthright citizenship decision should have no meaningful practical effect on the birthright citizenship issue. HA! Good Fun! ps: (quick addition) J Amy Coney Barrett messed this up whether you agree with the outcome or not. the ruling offers little in the way o' practical guidance and am predicting a multitude o' new litigation which will need to lurch back to scotus before we get answers to the numerous new questions this decision spawned.

am having heard that this dlc is uncharacteristically stable and relative bug-free for an owlcat release. however, am expecting an inevitable rebalancing patch to drop soonish, a patch which based on past experience has a noteworthy possibility of breaking existing saves. as such, to reduce frustration, am gonna wait to restart a new game and play beyond character creation until after the next patch. HA! Good Fun!

Senate parliamentarian deals blow to Republicans over Medicaid provisions in Trump's megabill The ruling is a major setback for Republican leadership, who are under pressure to expeditiously move it to the Senate floor to meet the July deadline. This ruling will require potentially major reworks of the bill with relatively little time to accomplish them. And no matter how they change it, leaders are likely to frustrate some faction of the Republican conference, which could imperil the bill's passage. ... not accurate, but it might be true. by a majority vote, the senate could overrule the parliamentarian, but that almost never happens. 'course a whole lotta almost never happens has been happening under trump, yes? also, the scotus procedural ruling on deportations to third country is disappointing and has the Court fully embracing its ordinary three wise monkey attitude. "Instead, at least five of the same justices who, as recently as April, were especially adamant that alleged alien enemies have a right to notice and an opportunity to be heard before they can be removed under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 were willing to sign off on a ruling that effectively allows for countless other migrants to be removed to third countries where they have credible arguments that they’ll be mistreated—for no other reason than because they’ve already been held to be removable to some other country. Due process apparently matters to these justices on the initial removability question, but not beyond that." the Court, back in april, recognized that the government were intentional misleading in their efforts to rush plaintiffs outta jurisdictions just ahead of judge rulings being delivered in addition to the fed's embrace of deceitful shell games such as ceding authority of deportees to the department of defense while claiming that judge orders specified only homeland security and ice... not to mention sh!te like the doj is serious arguing that abrego garcia should not be released from criminal custody 'cause then he would be deported, resulting in the State losing the opportunity to criminal prosecute a bad guy. oh, and emil bove HA! Good Fun!

a few o' those go considerable past the last decade, so am not sure what the temporal range is if we are including x-files and firefly, which both had their final episodes over twenty years past, yes? example: pushing dasies and wonderfalls were broadcast after firefly and x-files, but they is a bit remote. fleabag, better call saul, hannibal, atlanta, true detective (season 1) and a few seasons of fargo all are near the top o' our favorite tv series from the last ~decade. a couple other notables: mr robot had loads o' great performances, but... am curious ambivalent. not sure why we didn't like it more. the bear. wth? how the heck is the bear categorized as a comedy? great show that makes us feel terrible. we watched the bear and thought it were fantastic, but maybe something resonated too much, 'cause we frequent were made uncomfortable on a physical level when watching the bear. chernobyl, shogun and watchmen is miniseries we enjoyed. kinda surprised by shogun-- maybe we liked it more 'cause we were expecting so little? keep in mind, am old enough to have seen the original nbc shogun miniseries when it were first televised. regardless, can't stress how much we approve of fleabag. HA! Good Fun! ps the 80s was a good time for broadcast miniseries, and only about half of them starred richard chamberlain. in fact, richard chamberlain was jason bourne back in the late 80s. 'bout a year after nbc's shogun, masada, with peter o'toole (we kid you not) and peter strauss were released by abc... think it were abc. am realizing that with times being what they are, there is 0% chance o' a masada remake, which is too bad. 1989, at the end o' the decade, we got lonesome dove. was a whole lotta not good miniseries, but following rich man, poor man and roots, they became expected annual occurrences for the networks, and a few o' those miniseries were justifiably memorable even when they weren't fantastic.

fixed maga politicians is positively giddy that the democrat clown car operation is likely gonna make a thirty-three year old with extreme limited policy making experience, who seeming wants to throw money at every problem in a city where they already waste too much money and who is okie dokie with globalize the intafada, one o' the more visible democrats in the country. mayor of nyc is so not a learn-on-the-job office. and maga has been holding up bernie sanders as an extinction level threat to scare independents and moderates on both side of the aisle to instead choose republican candidates? mamdami is the politician maga has been praying to baphomet to send 'em... although gozer the gozerian might be the more appropriate dark god given we are talking 'bout nyc. there were other democrat candidates, but democrat leadership somehow let this become a binary mamdani v. cuomo situation as you accurate observe. As Donors Work Against Mamdani, Top Democrats Stop Short of Backing Him the democrat establishment coulda' gotten behind zellnor myrie or brad lander (and brad lander is also a progressive, but his policy positions are far more realistic and he had a much better chance o' being a successful progressive mayor,) but instead they went with andrew cuomo? the accused sex offender who had to take his limo five blocks to vote in the primary? maga politicians is loving this, and their wet dreams has democrats doing similar in places where the margins is six points or less instead of +50 democrat. edit: the thing to keep in mind when attempting to translate trump's gibberish is that he is a deeply stupid person. HA! Good Fun!

the people who selective edit trump and convince themselves that the President is less corrupt, vain, greedy and petty than his actions reveal him to be never ceases to amaze us. first term, when trump announced that he were gonna fire comey 'cause o' the russia investigation, people were shocked. when the President announced that the g-7 would be held at one of his golf resorts, people laughed, until they realized he were serious. "slow the testing down," were trump's demand and his solution for reducing the USA's high covid numbers, which were a manifest insane position to take, right? ... right? oh, and muslim ban? were literal hundreds o' such in the first term. during trump's campaign for 2.0, he announced a whole lotta illegal, immoral and seeming impossible. we learned that the bestest word in the dictionary is tariffs and that as future President he would tariff anybody with whom we had a trade deficit, in spite o' the fact near every economist observed that such a plan were not only nonsensical but trump's method o' dealing with trade deficits amounted top a kinda self immolation for the US. mass deportations? 'course it were ludicrous that 20 million undocumented, a number vast inflated and implausible, not only were impractical to deport, but that any significant effort to do so would gut punch numerous industries, so of course what trump really meant was he were gonna deport criminal undocumented aliens. doge would get rid o' so much waste fraud and abuse that concerns about the big beautiful bill debt would be a non factor... oh, and please reflect on january f'ing 6, for those who keep trying to memory hole that one. we gotta once again show receipts? how many here and elsewhere shrugged off trump suggestions that he would contest the election months before the election took place 'cause even trump knew he couldn't get away with that. honest, what about the past ten years of trump social media, interviews and campaign stumps has convinced people that it is safe to ignore the insane, stoopid and overt illegal plans trump announces? HA! Good Fun!

the only positive we see from trump's predictable premature declaration that the iran sites were, “completely and totally obliterated,” is that trump never admits he were wrong; he always doubles down. now that trump has declared mission accomplished, how does he justify additional strikes w/o being confronted by the same people who triggered him with TACO and two weeks? update: predictable double-down. so now what happens when there is increasing evidence that, "one of the most successful military strikes in history," failed to achieve the complete and total obliteration described? future bombing by the US or israel undermines trump's narrative, but the whole justification for the President authorizing an attack requires an imminent threat to the US and if the situation today is little different than before midnight hammer... if only trump had taken our usual advice to be patient and wait for reliable info before making claims which could result in humiliation. on the other hand, ~70% o' trump voters believe everything trump says, even when trump contradicts himself. HA! Good Fun!

not to let trump off the hook, (am not) but israel has gutted iran command & control. chaos. am suspecting there is a whole lotta people in the iranian military who are acting independent during a time o' crisis, and unlike in the US, iranian military commanders has far less experience acting solo. any sorta expectation that iran is even capable of adhering to a ceasefire w/o at least some kinda delay is suspect given what israel has been doing to the military command structure o' iran for the past week. unlike others, Gromnir hesitates before opining in these situations, particular given trump's habitual mendacity. however, am admitting that even if iran did agree to a ceasefire, there would be some kinda initial period o' time during which they would have difficulty communicating that fact meaningful to the people capable o' sending missiles to israel... and both trump and israel should be aware o' that reality. HA! Good Fun! ps we spoke with somebody yesterday and it occurred to us that at least a few people don't know what is an Iranian centrifuge. the person we spoke with were under the impression a centrifuge is an enormous and complex device, and that person were not dumb. most iranian centrifuges is smallish-- 'bout 2 m high and 30 cm wide, with the older models being a bit more boxy. the newest iranian centrifuges is more than 4 m in height and 40 cm wide, but they had very few o' those. an individual iranian centrifuge, even the good ones, is incapable o' enriching much uranium over the course o' a year, so iran needs a whole lotta them if they wish to make more enriched uranium. the thing is, as noted, the centrifuges individually ain't that big and they ain't that difficult for iran to manufacture. you don't need an enormous facility to house and maintain the centrifuges, particular if you are making an effort to hide 'em. regardless, there ain't no way to prevent replacement centrifuges from being constructed, and it wouldn't be impossible to hide a whole bunch o' working centrifuges if that were your goal.

more significant is the fact oil dropped after the news that iran's response were symbolic. ... am also gonna observe just how tepid has been the arab world's reaction to the israeli and US attacks. sure, there has been a performative UN theatre, but am certain iran noticed just how meek and measured has been the outrage from other nations in the region. heck, a nyc candidate for mayor were more vocal supportive o' global intafada than has the arab world post 13 june. again, am so not in favor o' what increasing looks like an israeli effort to bring about regime change, but am suspecting they see @HoonDingrecent post and are barely able to suppress an evil grin o' agreement, if for complete different motives. these attacks were never about ending the iranian breakout capability. as such, it is looking like bush's mission accomplished is almost having been achieved by israel. the history o' regime change in the region does not suggest a more stable and safe outcome. hamas, syria and hezbollah has already been knee-capped and while the US may have blundered in its efforts to neuter the houthis, by our admitted inexpert estimation, iran on 12 june were weaker and less a threat than at any time in recent decades. so seeing as how the iranian nuclear threat has most certain not been eliminated, mission accomplished, where the real goal is to get vengeance on iran for its involvement in october 7, is maybe close to having been achieved? am suspecting israel is satisfied with mission accomplished, but the potential for regional chaos is more or less than were the case before the israeli attacks? HA! Good Fun!

warning: ordinary rogan sweary the nuts part is that Gromnir is not surprised at all that clowns like rogan is shocked by the utter predictable outcomes we are seeing. this were the likely outcome when trump said he were gonna do mass deportations amounting to millions o' undocumented. math made the outcome inevitable. there were never that many criminals, so... even so, if you only get your news from national conservative outlets, you would think la were under siege. HA! Good Fun!

from the nyt article linked above: "But there was also evidence, according to two Israeli officials with knowledge of the intelligence, that Iran had moved equipment and uranium from the site in recent days. And there was growing evidence that the Iranians, attuned to Mr. Trump’s repeated threats to take military action, had removed 400 kilograms, or roughly 880 pounds, of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. That is just below the 90 percent that is usually used in nuclear weapons." from the cnn article linked: But unlike the other two Iranian facilities targeted in the operation, B-2 bombers did not drop massive “bunker-buster” bombs on the Isfahan facility, multiple sources told CNN. The damage to the facility appears to be restricted to aboveground structures, according to Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies who has closely reviewed commercial satellite imagery of the strike sites. Even if the US was successful in destroying Iran’s facility at Fordow — another underground site that housed centrifuges needed to enrich uranium, which the US hit with 12 bunker busters — the obvious survival of Isfahan has raised questions about whether Trump achieved his stated goal of “a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s No. 1 state sponsor of terror.” “This is an incomplete strike,” Lewis said. “If this is all there is, here’s what left: the entire stockpile of 60% uranium, which was stored at Isfahan in tunnels that are untouched.” and as already mentioned, bushehr is functionally untargetable via military air strikes. on june 13, israel's espoused goal of eliminating iran's nuclear breakout capability as the goal o' attacks were unconvincing. less convincing today. HA! Good Fun!

unrelated to iran, so am posting separate... "In her 51-page order, Judge Holmes said the government failed to prove there is a "serious risk" that Abrego Garcia will flee or that he will obstruct justice in the case. Holmes also said the government's evidence that Abrego Garcia is a member of MS-13 "consists of general statements, all double hearsay" from cooperating witnesses." however, please keep in mind that while the judge ordered mr. garcia's release, he were being held on criminal charges. am suspecting nothing functional changes for abrego garcia as he is gonna need endure continued ice detention. however, the point is that the judge observed that the criminal case the fed slapped together is weak. contrary to the expectations o' many hereabouts, the fed (pre 2025) don't manufacture cases or use sleight o' had nonsense to get indictments and convictions. the thing we liked most about working for the fed were the hours-- as close to 9-5 as any attorney job is ever gonna be. why? you got unlimited resources and time, and the line prosecutors (ordinarily) is insulated from politics. so not like tv or the movies. regardless, the point is judge holmes declared bs on fed prosecutors, but with everything else going on, few will notice or care. HA! Good Fun!

so... btw, and Early assessments raise questions over whether US destroyed bulk of enriched Iranian nuclear material but even if the attacks were intelligent planned and successful, iran's capability to construct a nuclear weapon would not have been ended, so what possible alternative were there for israel's attack? am seeming to recall we posited an alternative theory explaining israel's motivations back on 13 june. as for US involvement, as ridiculous as it sounds, am suspecting the most significant factor which led to the US bombing/striking fordow, natanz and isfahan were neither ending iran's nuclear breakout threat nor regime change. am gonna guess @Malcador and most obsidian boardies do not watch fox news, but israel were getting a whole lotta positive coverage on that netwok over the past week. as far as we can tell, given the reality that the ending iran's nuclear threat argument is implausible, and that even just the news o' possible regime change is gonna push up oil prices, the most obvious explanation for why the US would insert itself into this mess is 'cause trump were jealous o' the press israel were getting on fox and he didn't wanna look like he were impotent, irrelevant or TACOing. god help us all. edit: the following link includes updated info HA! Good Fun!

am not sure how the result can be anything but a waste. for years iran has been aware israel wanted to attack their nuclear sites. for years iran has been stockpiling the material needed to build a weapon-- feel free to review the purposefully recycled decade-old conclusions o' rand, us intelligence, isis and iaea that am having shared ad nauseum at this point. as such, why wouldn't iran develop their version o' a reverse GECK, and bury a rudimentary facility under a hospital or mosque in tehran, beneath seemingly untargetable bushehr, or anywhere in the vast and remote mountains which make up a considerable portion o' iran... or multiple such locations. again, iaea has recent said that iran has enough 60% enriched uranium that it could further enrich quick and make more than six weapons. why wouldn't iran squirrel away some portion o' their, "very, very specific ingredients to build a nuke," in remote or functional untargetable locations. the notion it were possible for the US and/or israel to military strike iran's nuclear weapon potential out of existence looks flawed on its face. the recent attacks of iran may have extended the nuclear breakout timeline a bit, but the one thing holding iran back from nuclear breakout for two decades has been their lack of political will to cross the nuclear red line. now? HA! Good Fun!

as childish as it may appear, am wondering how much the mockery trump endured for his reflexive "two weeks" announcement led to him moving quickly to end diplomatic efforts and instead resort to an overt display of military force. first, netanyahu maneuvers trump into helping him with attacks on iran that israel couldn't manage itself; donald didn't wanna look weak by admitting that israel had not only successful attacked numerous iranian sites, but that israel purposeful kept the US in the dark about the attacks. and trump, like a child, were jealous of the positive attention israel was getting on fox? then we get the "two week" jokes, which reveal just how often trump goes limp after making a bold pronouncement. trump didn't like that very much. am suspecting what the US needs most is a competent kindergarten teacher, somebody with experience keeping little kids in line, to handle trump. HA! Good Fun!