Greece, EU and why we can't have nice things

[Sarex]

Sorry Sarex, Russia is broke. Tspiras has already visited the Kremlin with the begging bowl and came back with very little. Sanctions are biting Putin's crew atm.

 

I know, being Serbian, you are likely to have a more positive view of Russia, but I don't see them stumping up the sort of cash Greece owes the IMF on any sort of terms.

 

Idk, I don't see why they would help them stay in the EU, much better to let them hit rock bottom and exit the euro zone and eu and then help them get back on their feet. As for them being broke, things don't work like that for countries of that size. Even if they were broke, the amount of money Greece would need to get a new lease on life would still not be significant enough for it to matter to them(Russia).

 

If by chance Russia passes on Greece there are still other countries. No way is Greece going to devolve in to Venezuela, simply too many players in the game interested in that piece of land.

[HoonDing]

Maybe I'll head to Crete again next year, should be cheap.

[Monte Carlo]

Greece has a history of mainstream parties maintaining back-channels to terrorist groups. N17 and the Left springs to mind. I'm sure GD also has its people on the Right too.

 

The country has a sad history of dictatorship and political instability, allegedly banished by their participation in the EU.

[Sarex]

Greece has a history of mainstream parties maintaining back-channels to terrorist groups. N17 and the Left springs to mind.

 

So does the US, lol.

[Monte Carlo]

Not really, unless you want to count external groups like Cuba and Latin America.

 

The Weathermen, KKK, Black Panthers, NoI (etc) never enjoyed access to government in the same way November 17 did (and might still do) in Greece.

[melkathi]

 

Just because our Minister of Defense announced the other day that the army stands ready to defend "us" from domestic enemies?

 

Sounds bad. I wonder to what extent the current gov't has actual support from the armed forces. Have you heard anything about Academi (formerly Blackwater)?

 

http://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2013/02/greece-blackwater-mercenaries-guarding-govt-and-overseeing-police-coup-feared-2453458.html

 

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=el&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsbomb.gr%2Fpolitikh%2Fnews%2Fstory%2F296524%2Fapantisi-dendia-sti-voyli-gia-tin-blackwater

 

I'm guessing the "domestic enemies" he was alluding to are supposed to be Golden Dawn fifth-columnists and such?

 

 

Actually no. It was meant to rally that part. That is the scary part. The government has the support of the far right. The No vote afetr all is the supposed far-left SYRIZA and their far right coalition partner ANEL (independent Greeks), alongside the radical leftist ANTARSIA and the nazis from Golden Dawn.

As someone from ANTARSIA told me: "The purity of the NO message is underlined by the fact that not even the Nazis dare oppose it but feel forced to support it". Apprently those of us who are saying YES are worse than Nazis *nodnod* It's the general theme they have been pushing these past few days.

The announcement by the Minister of Defense should be read as "If the YES vote wins, don't worry, we can stay in power."

 

 

So, yup. The probable NO victory today is a great victory for democracy /end sarcasm.

[213374U]

Oh, ****. So it's already gotten to the point where moderates are to be regarded as enemies of the state, huh. Can't say I'm surprised by that sort of sectarianism, but I wouldn't have expected them to start making threats so quickly. They haven't even been in power for a year, ffs.

[Monte Carlo]

I'm watching this live. I was at the Berlin Wall in 1989, wow that was a night (didn't see the Hoff there, btw) and this has a similar sort of epoch-moment feel to it. Wish I was in Athens.

 

Edit - lots of people are calling a 'No' atm.

Edited July 5, 2015 by Monte Carlo

[melkathi]

So NO basically won.

68% among the under 35 with a vast majority among the students. All the kids living off grandad's and grandma's money. Above 55 it is 63%+ in favour of Yes. Funny that.

 

 

Oh, and Monte. N17 and the Conspiracy of the Fire Nuclei both no longer operate and have been jailed. There is no real far left terror group at the moment. All violent potential currently comes from Golden Dawn and groups to the right of them (scary *****ers when admiring the SS is seen as too soft). And some uncoordinated vandalism by anarchists. Though we'll see how that all changes the more the ties between the left and the far right are strengthened.

 

 

If you remember the assassination of the two Golden Dawn members last year, the terror group that claimed responsibility was a fake. Their letter was wrong on every level. The details were wrong. And the style was wrong; the person who wrote it was very obviously simply copying info they found online. A bad fake.

 

 

Bah. Why am I against gun control?

[Zoraptor]

I'm glad they went No, and reasonably convincingly too. A 51/49 type No would have been worse than a convincing Yes.

 

Now, hopefully, there will be some good sense and good will shown by both sides.

 

Sorry Sarex, Russia is broke. Tspiras has already visited the Kremlin with the begging bowl and came back with very little. Sanctions are biting Putin's crew atm.

 

I know, being Serbian, you are likely to have a more positive view of Russia, but I don't see them stumping up the sort of cash Greece owes the IMF on any sort of terms.

 

And the best way to get rid of the sanctions is to have Greece veto their prorogation/ extension. They have to be renewed every six months, they aren't permanent, and they have to agreed unanimously. Indeed, that would be a main reason why they'd do it (along with south stream and just to generally asterisk around with geostrat enemies in EU/ NATO), not because of any 'orthodox brotherhood' or whatever it would be dressed up as.

 

Russia can still do it easily too as they don't have to pay the whole 420bn USD off, only the part(s) that come due over (whatever) period of time. Russia still has 360 bn in reserves despite some people insisting they should be out of cash already, they can pay off Greece's arrears and this year's principle repayments, if they want to.

 

They almost certainly don't want to though, and certainly not yet. If they do do it they'll want maximum effect for minimum effort having had maximum damage to the EU, and that means riding in to the rescue at the last moment preferably after debt reduction or when lenders are willing to accept that, while looking a bit reluctant to do so. And it should be all rhetorical too, it can certainly be prevented by the lenders/ troika showing some good sense.

[Meshugger]

Both /pol/ and /leftypol/ are cheering about this, for different reasons.

 

I'll just sit and observe this for the moment and let it sink in.

[Ineth]

This thread has already covered the academic left (Krugman) and crazy fringe left (Syriza) analysis of the situation, so let me add some links for a scholarly libertarian perspective.

 

 

First, an article by a Cato Institute researcher:

 

  Think Greece can’t happen here? You’re wrong

 

Basically, he identifies the following two root causes for Greece's debt crisis:

• The welfare state has grown too big and expensive.
  The Greek government spends about 50% of the country's GDP each year. (In the USA it's "only" about 20%, but expected to rise.)
  And despite claiming to practice "austerity", Greece hasn't made non-negligible changes to that trend.
   
• The private sector is denied the economic freedom it needs to grow strong and stable.
  Greece ranks a pitiful 84th in the Economic Freedom of the World Index. (USA used to rank 2nd only 15 years ago; now ranks 12th)

 

Secondly, a historic article by Milton Friedman from 1997, arguing that it's a bad idea to introduce the Euro while the European countries are still governed separately and very differently:

 

  The Euro: Monetary Unity To Political Disunity?

 

Btw, the part where he talks about flexible exchange rates as a beneficial mechanism to help cope with the differences between the different countries' economic policies/realities, does not sound that different from what Enoch wrote earlier.

[213374U]

I'm glad they went No, and reasonably convincingly too.

 

Turnout's been less than two thirds, though. Given how things are, I'd have expected it to be in the high 70s.

 

Of course now everyone is going to try and take advantage of the referendum result. If the powers that be are smart, they won't give an inch of ground in the coming days and force Greece out of the euro by denying access to credit, cutting their losses. If not, if SYRIZA is allowed to negotiate advantageous terms, the left elsewhere will be emboldened and the risk of a contagion may increase. That would spell certain doom for the EU. After all, ~€320bn is chump change compared to what TTIP represents.

Edited July 6, 2015 by 213374U

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

Both /pol/ and /leftypol/ are cheering about this, for different reasons.

 

I'll just sit and observe this for the moment and let it sink in.

 

Not really surprising, both hate the EU and Israel quite a bit.

[Zoraptor]

 

I'm glad they went No, and reasonably convincingly too.

 

Turnout's been less than two thirds, though. Given how things are, I'd have expected it to be in the high 70s.

 

Of course now everyone is going to try and take advantage of the referendum result. If the powers that be are smart, they won't give an inch of ground in the coming days and force Greece out of the euro by denying access to credit, cutting their losses. If not, if SYRIZA is allowed to negotiate advantageous terms, the left elsewhere will be emboldened and the risk of a contagion may increase. That would spell certain doom for the EU. After all, ~€320bn is chump change compared to what TTIP represents.

 

 

Less than 2/3s is about the same as the turnout for the last election (64% per wikipedia), so I don't think too much more could be expected. After all, the last election was in many ways seen as a referendum on austerity at the time.

 

I can't see it leading to the end of the EU either. Perhaps it is the death knell for the 'European Dream' version of the EU (and perhaps/ quite likely the euro as a predestined pan-european currency) with its theory of constant, irreversible integration, but that always needed to be wedded to practicality rather than political expediency and too often wasn't. It may end up going back to a more lite 'EEC' type model instead, but that is not necessarily a bad thing if the current hybrid system is fundamentally flawed.

[Elerond]

I can't predict what result means for Greece, EU or euro, but it has already become a weapon for anti-EU people, like Finland's current foreign minister, which will make all negotiations from this point on much more difficult and I am pretty sure that Finland at least will do it worst to make sure that Greece will have hard time to get any additional loans from EU and they probably will try to get Greece exit euro and also EU if they can as that is what they want Finland do also and Greece exit would be great example and also it would make sure that there is process for such exit in EU's contracts.

 

I hope that leaders of other EU countries don't let pride and populist nationalist protectionist politic mongering that is rising in popularity all around Europe make them forget long run goals for EU and euro and principles behind our unions, just because it would be much easier on short run.

[BruceVC]

This thread has already covered the academic left (Krugman) and crazy fringe left (Syriza) analysis of the situation, so let me add some links for a scholarly libertarian perspective.

 

 

First, an article by a Cato Institute researcher:

 

  Think Greece can’t happen here? You’re wrong

 

Basically, he identifies the following two root causes for Greece's debt crisis:

• The welfare state has grown too big and expensive.

  The Greek government spends about 50% of the country's GDP each year. (In the USA it's "only" about 20%, but expected to rise.)

  And despite claiming to practice "austerity", Greece hasn't made non-negligible changes to that trend.

   

• The private sector is denied the economic freedom it needs to grow strong and stable.

  Greece ranks a pitiful 84th in the Economic Freedom of the World Index. (USA used to rank 2nd only 15 years ago; now ranks 12th)

 

Secondly, a historic article by Milton Friedman from 1997, arguing that it's a bad idea to introduce the Euro while the European countries are still governed separately and very differently:

 

  The Euro: Monetary Unity To Political Disunity?

 

Btw, the part where he talks about flexible exchange rates as a beneficial mechanism to help cope with the differences between the different countries' economic policies/realities, does not sound that different from what Enoch wrote earlier.

 

Yes of course this is accurate, the primary reasons the Greek economy is in the state its in is due to mismanagement 

 

Its not just the bloated and problematic  public sector and ineffective tax collection. Its factors like the  low retirement age and as you mentioned this puts massive pressure on GDP

 

Zora highlights the fundamental misunderstanding  around the Greek crisis where he says " Now, hopefully, there will be some good sense and good will shown by both sides" 

 

This view makes the spurious  point that  the solution to the Greek problem is around the  terms of the loans...no. The Greeks needed to implement  serious economic restructuring and under this new government they will be delayed from doing this, yes some loan relief will help but the loan payments are  just a symptomatic problem. The core issue is how the Greeks have managed there economy ...and the NO vote will reduce  attention from the  important and required changes the Greeks still  need to make 

 

Remember we mustn't forget the reason for the loans initially was because the Greek government was about to go bankrupt, so for all the people blaming the loans and bailouts as the root cause of the current financial crisis in Greece maybe they can explain that one? In other words the economic problems existed in Greece before the loans 

[BruceVC]

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-07-06/greek-finance-minister-yanis-varoufakis-resigns/

 

 

Unbelievable, so one of the main proponents and architects of the referendum, the Greek finance  minister, has resigned 

 

He claims it will be easier to negotiate better terms on the loans if he isn't involved. This is UTTER BS....the issues with the loans are not to due to clashes of personality but structural around the actual terms of the payments 

 

I don't believe it will make any  difference who Greek sends to renegotiate the terms... there will always be certain conditions that Greece has to adhere to. I just find it concerning Varoufakis seems to be jumping ship when we will now see the true impact of the NO vote 

[Elerond]

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-07-06/greek-finance-minister-yanis-varoufakis-resigns/

 

 

Unbelievable, so one of the main proponents and architects of the referendum, the Greek finance  minister, has resigned 

 

He claims it will be easier to negotiate better terms on the loans if he isn't involved. This is UTTER BS....the issues with the loans are not to due to clashes of personality but structural around the actual terms of the payments 

 

I don't believe it will make any  difference who Greek sends to renegotiate the terms... there will always be certain conditions that Greece has to adhere to. I just find it concerning Varoufakis seems to be jumping ship when we will now see the true impact of the NO vote 

 

He did say that actions of Greece's debtors are terrorism, so I would guess that he would not get most warmest welcome in meetings with other eurozone's finance ministers. Meaning that if Greece hopes to have any change in any negotiations with their debtors he probably should not be part of those negotiations. 

[BruceVC]

 

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-07-06/greek-finance-minister-yanis-varoufakis-resigns/

 

 

Unbelievable, so one of the main proponents and architects of the referendum, the Greek finance  minister, has resigned 

 

He claims it will be easier to negotiate better terms on the loans if he isn't involved. This is UTTER BS....the issues with the loans are not to due to clashes of personality but structural around the actual terms of the payments 

 

I don't believe it will make any  difference who Greek sends to renegotiate the terms... there will always be certain conditions that Greece has to adhere to. I just find it concerning Varoufakis seems to be jumping ship when we will now see the true impact of the NO vote 

 

He did say that actions of Greece's debtors are terrorism, so I would guess that he would not get most warmest welcome in meetings with other eurozone's finance ministers. Meaning that if Greece hopes to have any change in any negotiations with their debtors he probably should not be part of those negotiations. 

 

 

Yeah I have heard that argument, hopefully that is exactly the reason and outcome

 

But the issue is he represented a certain symbolism around the Greek defiance. Many Greeks really liked him and believed what he said 

 

Now the rhetoric is over and the NO vote has won he resigns...what does that  say about the  veracity and credibility of the  NO argument ?

 

Surly for the all the millions of Greeks who stood by his views he needs to continue to represent the NO perspective and ideological stance ?

[Elerond]

 

 

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-07-06/greek-finance-minister-yanis-varoufakis-resigns/

 

 

Unbelievable, so one of the main proponents and architects of the referendum, the Greek finance  minister, has resigned 

 

He claims it will be easier to negotiate better terms on the loans if he isn't involved. This is UTTER BS....the issues with the loans are not to due to clashes of personality but structural around the actual terms of the payments 

 

I don't believe it will make any  difference who Greek sends to renegotiate the terms... there will always be certain conditions that Greece has to adhere to. I just find it concerning Varoufakis seems to be jumping ship when we will now see the true impact of the NO vote 

 

He did say that actions of Greece's debtors are terrorism, so I would guess that he would not get most warmest welcome in meetings with other eurozone's finance ministers. Meaning that if Greece hopes to have any change in any negotiations with their debtors he probably should not be part of those negotiations. 

 

 

Yeah I have heard that argument, hopefully that is exactly the reason and outcome

 

But the issue is he represented a certain symbolism around the Greek defiance. Many Greeks really liked him and believed what he said 

 

Now the rhetoric is over and the NO vote has won he resigns...what does that  say about the  veracity and credibility of the  NO argument ?

 

Surly for the all the millions of Greeks who stood by his views he needs to continue to represent the NO perspective and ideological stance ?

 

 

That is something that only Greeks themselves can give answer.

[BruceVC]

 

 

 

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-07-06/greek-finance-minister-yanis-varoufakis-resigns/

 

 

Unbelievable, so one of the main proponents and architects of the referendum, the Greek finance  minister, has resigned 

 

He claims it will be easier to negotiate better terms on the loans if he isn't involved. This is UTTER BS....the issues with the loans are not to due to clashes of personality but structural around the actual terms of the payments 

 

I don't believe it will make any  difference who Greek sends to renegotiate the terms... there will always be certain conditions that Greece has to adhere to. I just find it concerning Varoufakis seems to be jumping ship when we will now see the true impact of the NO vote 

 

He did say that actions of Greece's debtors are terrorism, so I would guess that he would not get most warmest welcome in meetings with other eurozone's finance ministers. Meaning that if Greece hopes to have any change in any negotiations with their debtors he probably should not be part of those negotiations. 

 

 

Yeah I have heard that argument, hopefully that is exactly the reason and outcome

 

But the issue is he represented a certain symbolism around the Greek defiance. Many Greeks really liked him and believed what he said 

 

Now the rhetoric is over and the NO vote has won he resigns...what does that  say about the  veracity and credibility of the  NO argument ?

 

Surly for the all the millions of Greeks who stood by his views he needs to continue to represent the NO perspective and ideological stance ?

 

 

That is something that only Greeks themselves can give answer.

 

I think the vast majority of Greeks have been mislead and manipulated by the current Greek government and they will  now face dire consequences. And trust me for those that think " it can't get worse " ....it can get worse. I live in Africa and I can give you many examples of just how bad it can get 

[Zoraptor]

Varoufakis said he was quitting because he was a barrier to a deal on his blog. His quitting is not surprising though as he's said that he isn't in for the long haul since he took the job.

 

Unsurprising that he was the guy throwing most of the punches given those circumstances, he had nothing to lose and allowed Tsipras et al. to have cleaner hands than otherwise; plus he gives the Euro types a small victory to make up for the big defeat which is always a politic approach. I think it actually shows some sort of genuine good faith approach, from the Greeks side at least.

Edited July 6, 2015 by Zoraptor

[Elerond]

 

 

 

 

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-07-06/greek-finance-minister-yanis-varoufakis-resigns/

 

 

Unbelievable, so one of the main proponents and architects of the referendum, the Greek finance  minister, has resigned 

 

He claims it will be easier to negotiate better terms on the loans if he isn't involved. This is UTTER BS....the issues with the loans are not to due to clashes of personality but structural around the actual terms of the payments 

 

I don't believe it will make any  difference who Greek sends to renegotiate the terms... there will always be certain conditions that Greece has to adhere to. I just find it concerning Varoufakis seems to be jumping ship when we will now see the true impact of the NO vote 

 

He did say that actions of Greece's debtors are terrorism, so I would guess that he would not get most warmest welcome in meetings with other eurozone's finance ministers. Meaning that if Greece hopes to have any change in any negotiations with their debtors he probably should not be part of those negotiations. 

 

 

Yeah I have heard that argument, hopefully that is exactly the reason and outcome

 

But the issue is he represented a certain symbolism around the Greek defiance. Many Greeks really liked him and believed what he said 

 

Now the rhetoric is over and the NO vote has won he resigns...what does that  say about the  veracity and credibility of the  NO argument ?

 

Surly for the all the millions of Greeks who stood by his views he needs to continue to represent the NO perspective and ideological stance ?

 

 

That is something that only Greeks themselves can give answer.

 

I think the vast majority of Greeks have been mislead and manipulated by the current Greek government and they will  now face dire consequences. And trust me for those that think " it can't get worse " ....it can get worse. I live in Africa and I can give you many examples of just how bad it can get 

 

 

I know that it can get much worse, it is just 25 years from Finland when was in similar economical situation and it got much worse before it get better.

Edited July 6, 2015 by Elerond

[BruceVC]

Varoufakis said he was quitting because he was a barrier to a deal on his blog. His quitting is not surprising though as he's said that he isn't in for the long haul since he took the job.

 

Unsurprising that he was the guy throwing most of the punches given those circumstances, he had nothing to lose and allowed Tsipras et al. to have cleaner hands than otherwise; plus he gives the Euro types a small victory to make up for the big defeat which is always a politic approach. I think it actually shows some sort of genuine good faith approach, from the Greeks side at least.

I'm not engaging in this debate because I want to prove the "  supremacy of Western ideology ". We need to take the emotion out this debate and look at the facts 

 

I am absolutely critical of the way the Tsipras government has consistently handled the negotiations and led the country to the NO vote 

 

So people like Varoufakis have for ages been making all these arguments about how the loans are unacceptable and  he was been very skillful at grandstanding and anti- EU rhetoric 

 

And his views helped shape the NO vote. And now that they have won he quits  

 

So for me it demonstrates a simple truth, Tsipras didn't really believe all the anti-EU views. They just wanted to win the NO vote which they feel gives them some credibility around asking for changes to the agreed on austerity and loan agreements 

 

Yet how much support would he have received if it had become common knowledge that Varoufakis would have resigned if the NO vote had won? I don't remember seeing a single link that this was the strategy. So I see this whole thing as disingenuous because it now appears  what Tsipras was really saying is " down with the Germans, IMF and ECB....but we don't really mean this because once we win the NO vote we are going to position a softer argument and use less vitriol " ......the inconsistency boggles my mind