Sales Projections

[PillarsofEternity]

Hello, I hope this hasnt been asked before, and I apologize if it has.

 

The question I wanted to ask - though I suspect I won't get a clear answer because of the nature of the question - about what kind of sales are being projected by Obsidian/Paradox for PoE. Moreover, what would be considered succesful to fund future iterations?

 

Ostensibly, the game has sold 80,000 copies to date, all of which will be distributed to backers. While Kickstarter is regarded as a platform where developers can get a game directly to the consumer, we all know that the real potential for this game lies beyond the backers. Simply getting the game out to backers isnt enough, despite backer funding covering the project. It seems, though there is no reason to air such an opinion, that Obsidian have high hopes for PoE. They want this to become their flagship franchise that can provide continuity for the next decade and beyond.

 

We also know that expansions are being planned. Expansions are great in that gamers get more content while developers make more money using a quicker development timeframe that benefits from existing assets and technology. In case of solid expansions, its a win-win for consumers and developers.

 

To me it seems perfectly reasonable to think that PoE could end up selling anywhere between 500-750k copies in its first year, and well over a million during its life cycle. And I feel Im being cautious.

 

This is going to be a major release on PC. In some respects I expect the release will see AAA treatment from publications, going by evidence of recent Kickstarters like Broken Age or Banner Saga - and PoE is far more ambitious than either. The existing audience for this game - in addition to the new audience it will reach - makes this more than your basic Kickstarter release. For example there were reports that Kickstarted games like FTL have sold over a million. Are such expectations held within the company?

 

The forumers, I pose two questions:

 

1. How many copies will PoE sell (not including expansions)?

2. What do you consider a success sales wise?

[Kjaamor]

I'm loathe to start guessing as to sales, but I think the idea of sales in the region of 1 million is rather optimistic. FTL was an enormous success but has appealed to gamers who wouldnt typically play that type of game, in part due to its excellent design but also in part due to the casual nature of the game.

 

PoE is, regardless of whether it is good, bad or outright fantastic, an incredibly niche game. It is an rpg. It is a relatively hardcore rpg by modern standard. It is nothing close to casual. It uses a graphical interface that even its advocates would describe as "retro".

 

I doubt PoE's ability to sell well outside of its niche market. Most of them are trolls, but these forums are awash with new posters who ask questions that suggest they are not remotely aware of what the game will be. There are an astonishing number of people who are expecting this game to be the new Fallout or Skyrim, and they are unlikely to buy into it when they discover what it is like.

 

People will wheel out the BGII example of over two million sales, but that was a mainstream game at the front of design. PoE is a retro-fest, and shall sell accordingly. Those 2 million BGII owners are by no means likely to each buy a copy of PoE.

[PrimeJunta]

Grimrock sold 600k copies, although many of those at heavy discounts. P:E has had way more exposure, the developer is way better known, and I don't think an IE-style game is more niche than a blobber-dungeon-crawler.

 

I.e. the OP's guesses are in the same ballpark as mine.

[StromIV]

Hard to say for certain what it will sell at.  I will be happy if it sells more than 500k copies during its first year.  But, I can see it selling more.  There are certain instances when sales will increase, such as Steam and GoG sales.  Some will buy the game at $5 even if they don't like it or maybe won't play it much.  So that could increase sales, even if it lowers the profit brought in.

 

Hopefully the game will sell 1+ million copies.  

[Jarmo]

I almost vaguely seem to recall Sawyer saying something about what they'd expect, in some interview or another.

Could be way off but I think it was to the tune of expecting 500K but hoping for more.

 

So 100-200K would be a major disappointment, over a million and they'll just retire to bahama and outsource the sequels.

[anameforobsidian]

There could be few sales and it would still be a success.  After all, every single sale they make will be pure profit.  

 

If it releases at $40 and they get $50k sales in the first week, that would be $1.3m (after Steam and kicking it forward cuts are taken, but before Paradox because who knows how much they take).  At 150k sales they would reach close to even with the campaign (or not depending on Paradox).  At 500k, they would have enough for a very small AAA game ($13m without Paradox).

 

The real test of sales is the quality of the game.  Multiple developers have said that kickstarter proceeds were a very small portion of their profits, but their games were all really good.

Edited May 6, 2014 by anameforobsidian

[Malekith]

Considering that the production process is already paid for and that the main distribution will be digital the sells could be quite high if the price will be decent. 

If Paradox/Obsidian will give a full price then I don't see a commercial success. 

BS. Wasteland 2 Early Access was at 60$ and still sold just fine. And that is a game more niche than PoE

[Sensuki]

I assume that Steam Early Access sales has probably been factored in to the budget for finishing the game/expansion dollars. Wasteland 2's Steam Early Access gave it enough money to keep development going for a few more months I think (two at least).

 

That may or may not be incorrect. I just remember Brother None saying something of the sort on the RPGCodex.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Sensuki

[Hormalakh]

each backer does not get one copy. Some get multiple copies depending on the amount they backed. so it isn't exactly right to think 80k backers = 80k copies.

 

for example, i've got two copies, and I'm going to likely give one away to friends/family.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Hormalakh

[Nonek]

I expect a few hundred thousand sales, though I would certainly be happy if there were more, there seems to be quite a media buzz over the game. Perhaps to increase that attention Obsidian might invite a popular Youtuber to support the game, as many people seem to trust these individuals over game journalists for obvious reasons, still it might be hard to find one who is popular and yet not a squeeing moron.

 

Edit: I'm told by a friend in the industry that rpg's are one of the few games that sell quite slowly and steadily, so it might well be that Poe becomes a nice regular source of income for the devs.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Nonek

[Endrosz]

Brian Fargo said in an interview that based on other KS games, if the game's a success, then the sales will surpass 10 times the number of KS backers as "first 3 months" sales (that's roughly when you can sell it reliably without heavy discounting). That projection means 800 000 units sold in the frist 3 months, assuming Eterniy turns out to be a success. More than 1.2 million as first year sales then seems likely, though most of those additional sales will be at discounted prices.

[Hormalakh]

I've always thought that PewDiePie should be one of the few people who plays this game on his youtube channel. That basically guarantees a few more sales. Although, I dno't know if RPGs, especially those you have to read, really games that you can do LPs of. "Let's Read Along with PewDiePie!"

[Kjaamor]

Grimrock sold 600k copies, although many of those at heavy discounts. P:E has had way more exposure, the developer is way better known, and I don't think an IE-style game is more niche than a blobber-dungeon-crawler.

 

I.e. the OP's guesses are in the same ballpark as mine.

 

I must admit, I wasn't aware that Grimrock had sold that many copies, and that must surely be encouraging for Obsidian.

[rjshae]

Initial sales will be lower than they normally would for a successful game because of the advanced purchase through Kickstarter. But the 74K+ backers will surely count toward total sales.

[JFSOCC]

I don't know, will Project Eternity eventually be included in humble bundle and steam sales? likely.

Todays game market is significantly larger than the market in the times of baldurs gate 1/2, but that also means there is more competition.

 

In reality you can't predict it.

I think it will probably outsell Divinity: Original Sin.

 

But I think it will depend on the reviews as much as the price.

With steam and GOG releases, availability won;t be an issue (I think)

 

But I won't ballpark a figure because that's just pure speculation.

 

I do believe it'll earn its production costs, and then some. It'll turn a profit, for sure.

[Endrosz]

I've always thought that PewDiePie should be one of the few people who plays this game on his youtube channel. That basically guarantees a few more sales. Although, I dno't know if RPGs, especially those you have to read, really games that you can do LPs of. "Let's Read Along with PewDiePie!"

 

Quests, NPC stories and personalities give a lot of opportunity to make fun of what's going on. RPGs are prime material for great talkers to show off their own brand of humor. Just think of what Avellone did in his yet-be-finished Arcanum playthrough (you hear that, MCA? probably not), how he mocked elves, narrow dialogue choices, simplistic NPCs,  and many other things. And he doesn't do game commentary for a living, he just spoke his mind.

[Gyges]

They should definitely try to maximize exposure in the times before release for the least amount of money possible. Which means word of mouth and giving advanced copies to reviewers and youtube LPers and reviewers such as PDP, Totalbiscuit, Angry Joe, Yog, etc.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Gyges

[Volourn]

Obsidian is not some rinky dinky company. They should be able to reach 1mil. they are a company with decdes of ties to the industry and are responsible for very successful games including the  super seller FO:NV which has outsold any BIO game (the company they are most comapred to).

 

The goal should be 1million.  The minimum should be 5k - espicially if they have had 80k copies alread 'sold' through the backing system since those are the ahrdcore which are the minority of  potential consumers. And, 2mil+ shouldn't be out of the question.

 

I think people insult Obsidian by syaing they shouldn't expect more than 100-200k.

 

500k is acceptable and would likely mean money was made 1mil should be the goal.

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That said, JFSOCC is correct.  It is something that can't really be 'predicted'. Way too many factors. History/populairty of comapny, type of game, potential marketing, word of mouth, reviews, etc., etc.

[Lephys]

Let's just say that I hope there's a lot of... wind in their "sales."

[Failion]

depends Legend of Grimrock all said and done was a good fun game. If this turns out good half a million or million+ if its really succesful.

[ilhdr]

That's really unpredictable. Obsidian has a large media coverage, but at the same time a mixed record with QA that the news don't let anyone forget. So it will largely depends upon the reception of the game.

[StrangeCat]

They will sell at least 100,000 copies world wide.   I am sure it will be great success.  There aren't any games being made like it and I am sure they are striving to create something that not only brings back the good ole days but creates something new and fresh too.

I hope they have large PR for it.  It wouldn't take to much effort to have something set up at E3 or other places.  

[Fatback]

You all mean you hope paradox has good marketing and pr abilities right. Because that is the main reason you get a publisher to market the thing. The whole physical distribution thing is all fluff.

[BruceVC]

They will sell at least 100,000 copies world wide.   I am sure it will be great success.  There aren't any games being made like it and I am sure they are striving to create something that not only brings back the good ole days but creates something new and fresh too.

I hope they have large PR for it.  It wouldn't take to much effort to have something set up at E3 or other places.  

 

As mentioned 100 K sales numbers would not be considered a successful sales number. I am guessing they will sell between 800K - 1 million copies

[ManifestedISO]

No worries, I personally know six-hundred thousand Germans alone, waiting to buy PoE, day one. Whole families, together, eating bratwurst, drinking beer, playing Pillars of Eternity. And for every one European buyer, there are two in Eastern Europe, sharing vodka and kielbasa. This game will be a success on the coattails of good writing, alcohol, and tasty sausages.