Syrian civil war

[BruceVC]

 

 

It's hardly a conspiracy theory.

Syria won't fight Israel under pretty much any circumstances. They'd lose, badly, even if they weren't fighting a civil war as well, plus it would guarantee US intervention, even if you had a neo isolationist (Rand Paul? so practically unlikely) as President.

 

You can make a nice parallel between Israel's 'theoretical' nuclear stockpile and Syria's 'theoretical' stockpile though-since they both exist for the same reason (if we look like losing a war we'll nuke Damascus/ if we look like losing a war we'll gas Tel Aviv), are both undeclared, both 'illegal', both never been used (r00fles!) etc.

 

Thought he meant my statement on Israel's nuclear weapons. Guessing that if the US stopped caring about Israel, any future war probably would be with Syria if any state were to.

 

 

No I meant it was a conspiracy theory that Syria would attempt to seriously attack Israel

[Walsingham]

Eternally optimistic Guardian reader finally admits Obama is dreadful

 

 

A GUARDIAN reader who has worshipped Barack Obama for five years without interruption has finally admitted he is just awful.

 

‘He’s probably not even a very nice person’

 

Martin Bishop, who until last week was still insisting Obama was a mixture of Martin Luther King and John F Kennedy, has now realised that America’s first black president is basically just that.

 

Bishop said: “I read in the Guardian this morning that he’s now saying there would be no attack on Syria if Assad gives up his chemical weapons. I just thought – ‘he’s an arse’.

 

“I’m not in favour of attacking Syria but couldn’t he have said that right at the start? So, yes, I admit it – he is a terrible president.”

 

[Bos_hybrid]

Good to see a little bit of sanity in the end(even if it was by accident). Hopefully it continues.

[Zoraptor]

Really? My 'pet' conspiracy theory - everyone has at least on - is that your man who was imprisoned for whistle-blowing was Israel's cheap nuke deterrent.

About the only thing that could explain the honey trap he fell for- who could have been Susan Boyle's sister- is if he only 'fell' for it, so you might be right.

[Walsingham]

 

Really? My 'pet' conspiracy theory - everyone has at least on - is that your man who was imprisoned for whistle-blowing was Israel's cheap nuke deterrent.

About the only thing that could explain the honey trap he fell for- who could have been Susan Boyle's sister- is if he only 'fell' for it, so you might be right.

 

 

Generally speaking it just amuses me to imagine that he was a patsy.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Obama is a rank amateur. It just takes a little longer for some people to realize it than others (kind of like that Mass Effect series was horrible). That's what you get for electing a guy whose only real experience was "community organizing" (and voting "present", which is what he's still doing).

[Volourn]

“And so what if he ‘got’ Bin Laden? The head of the CIA comes to him and says ‘we’ve found Bin Laden, shall we kill him?’. What was he gonna do? Say ‘no’?."

 

Touche.

 

 

"He added: “Anyway, I’ve learned my lesson. No more adolescent, liberal hero-worshipping for me.

“That said, I do think George Clooney would make a fantastic president.”"

 

L0L

 

 

 

"It just takes a little longer for some people to realize it than others (kind of like that Mass Effect series was horrible)."

 

ME series is fantastic.

[Katphood]

Interesting read: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html?_r=1
 
 
"...but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal."  
 

He clearly has a speech level above 70.
 

[Volourn]

The fact he pretends to be religious and spouts the Christian belief of peace and harmony is a joke since Putin has no problem murdeirng people inc old blood. I'm not religious mysefl but it's laughable that he pretends to be a religious person. He's a piece of crap therefore his opinion is moot. Plus, he talks about the Un like it's some sacred thing when he doesn't obey the UN ever and flaunts Russia powerful veto (just as the US does) to counter the 'majority'.

[BruceVC]

Interesting read: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html?_r=1

 

 

"...but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal."  

 

He clearly has a speech level above 70.

 

 

I read this letter and I'm very impressed. I have never known Putin to be so diplomatic, he really is reaching out to explain the Russian position in a way that is not pugnacious. I also respect Obama for taking into account the Russian attempts to broker peace. For me this letter is important as we can finally see what the Russians are thinking and its not unreasonable. The funny thing is they have opinions on Syria that many people on these forums share, like the danger of helping the rebels due to the Islamic fundamentalists.

 

Anyway we need to give this initiative a chance to get the Syrians to disarm there Chemical weapons. It does seem the right thing to do under the circumstances

Edited September 12, 2013 by BruceVC

[Walsingham]

Much as it pains me to turn on someone I've been 'standing' next to (metaphorically speaking, I have to say that Bruce is getting a wee bit one dimensional himself.

 

To illustrate, Stratfor observe that this fracas has given Moscow room to ante up in Eastern Europe. And the White House has been completely supine.

 

 

At a time when the United States and Europe are focused on Russia's position in Syria, Moscow has also been making significant moves much closer to its periphery in Europe. On Thursday, a meeting of representatives from the Visegrad Group expressed "outrage" over increased pressure from Russia on the countries of the European Union's Eastern Partnership initiative not to sign trade and association agreements with the European Union.
...
Russia has used a number of tactics to derail the European Union's goals for the Eastern Partnership. In August, Russia temporarily tightened customs controls of Ukraine's exports along the border, explicitly stating that Kiev can expect harsher and more permanent controls if it signs the EU agreements. Moscow has also cut off Moldovan wine exports to Russia, ostensibly due to safety concerns but in reality to make Chisinau think twice about its turn toward Europe. Russia also temporarily increased natural gas prices for Armenia, before reversing the decision after Yerevan announced that it would join the Customs Union. As a result, plans for Armenia to initial the EU agreements have been withdrawn from the summit's agenda.

Russia's moves have had a worrying effect on the Eastern Partnership target states, as well as the European countries in the Visegrad Group trying to woo them. Due to their common experience under Soviet domination, these countries share a wariness of Russian power that has only grown as pressure from Moscow has risen.

 

[obyknven]

 

Much as it pains me to turn on someone I've been 'standing' next to (metaphorically speaking, I have to say that Bruce is getting a wee bit one dimensional himself.

 

To illustrate, Stratfor observe that this fracas has given Moscow room to ante up in Eastern Europe. And the White House has been completely supine.

 

 

At a time when the United States and Europe are focused on Russia's position in Syria, Moscow has also been making significant moves much closer to its periphery in Europe. On Thursday, a meeting of representatives from the Visegrad Group expressed "outrage" over increased pressure from Russia on the countries of the European Union's Eastern Partnership initiative not to sign trade and association agreements with the European Union.

...

Russia has used a number of tactics to derail the European Union's goals for the Eastern Partnership. In August, Russia temporarily tightened customs controls of Ukraine's exports along the border, explicitly stating that Kiev can expect harsher and more permanent controls if it signs the EU agreements. Moscow has also cut off Moldovan wine exports to Russia, ostensibly due to safety concerns but in reality to make Chisinau think twice about its turn toward Europe. Russia also temporarily increased natural gas prices for Armenia, before reversing the decision after Yerevan announced that it would join the Customs Union. As a result, plans for Armenia to initial the EU agreements have been withdrawn from the summit's agenda.

 

Russia's moves have had a worrying effect on the Eastern Partnership target states, as well as the European countries in the Visegrad Group trying to woo them. Due to their common experience under Soviet domination, these countries share a wariness of Russian power that has only grown as pressure from Moscow has risen.

 

 

Hatters gonna hate

 

 Vladimir Putin, the new leader of the free world

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/358030#ixzz2efB83UKo

 

 

 

[BruceVC]

 

Much as it pains me to turn on someone I've been 'standing' next to (metaphorically speaking, I have to say that Bruce is getting a wee bit one dimensional himself.

 

To illustrate, Stratfor observe that this fracas has given Moscow room to ante up in Eastern Europe. And the White House has been completely supine.

 

 

At a time when the United States and Europe are focused on Russia's position in Syria, Moscow has also been making significant moves much closer to its periphery in Europe. On Thursday, a meeting of representatives from the Visegrad Group expressed "outrage" over increased pressure from Russia on the countries of the European Union's Eastern Partnership initiative not to sign trade and association agreements with the European Union.

...

Russia has used a number of tactics to derail the European Union's goals for the Eastern Partnership. In August, Russia temporarily tightened customs controls of Ukraine's exports along the border, explicitly stating that Kiev can expect harsher and more permanent controls if it signs the EU agreements. Moscow has also cut off Moldovan wine exports to Russia, ostensibly due to safety concerns but in reality to make Chisinau think twice about its turn toward Europe. Russia also temporarily increased natural gas prices for Armenia, before reversing the decision after Yerevan announced that it would join the Customs Union. As a result, plans for Armenia to initial the EU agreements have been withdrawn from the summit's agenda.

 

Russia's moves have had a worrying effect on the Eastern Partnership target states, as well as the European countries in the Visegrad Group trying to woo them. Due to their common experience under Soviet domination, these countries share a wariness of Russian power that has only grown as pressure from Moscow has risen.

 

 

 

We'll have to agree to disagree around whether Russia's attempts to broker a peaceful solution make sense in regard to Syria. It may seem like I am flip-flopping on the  armed intervention in Syria but I have followed many new perspectives and I fail to see how at least allowing the Russians to get Assad to destroy his Chemical weapons is a bad idea?

[Morgoth]

[obyknven]

http://youtu.be/OoVN36UJtUo

'Murica

[Walsingham]

 

 

Much as it pains me to turn on someone I've been 'standing' next to (metaphorically speaking, I have to say that Bruce is getting a wee bit one dimensional himself.

 

To illustrate, Stratfor observe that this fracas has given Moscow room to ante up in Eastern Europe. And the White House has been completely supine.

 

 

At a time when the United States and Europe are focused on Russia's position in Syria, Moscow has also been making significant moves much closer to its periphery in Europe. On Thursday, a meeting of representatives from the Visegrad Group expressed "outrage" over increased pressure from Russia on the countries of the European Union's Eastern Partnership initiative not to sign trade and association agreements with the European Union.

...

Russia has used a number of tactics to derail the European Union's goals for the Eastern Partnership. In August, Russia temporarily tightened customs controls of Ukraine's exports along the border, explicitly stating that Kiev can expect harsher and more permanent controls if it signs the EU agreements. Moscow has also cut off Moldovan wine exports to Russia, ostensibly due to safety concerns but in reality to make Chisinau think twice about its turn toward Europe. Russia also temporarily increased natural gas prices for Armenia, before reversing the decision after Yerevan announced that it would join the Customs Union. As a result, plans for Armenia to initial the EU agreements have been withdrawn from the summit's agenda.

 

Russia's moves have had a worrying effect on the Eastern Partnership target states, as well as the European countries in the Visegrad Group trying to woo them. Due to their common experience under Soviet domination, these countries share a wariness of Russian power that has only grown as pressure from Moscow has risen.

 

 

 

We'll have to agree to disagree around whether Russia's attempts to broker a peaceful solution make sense in regard to Syria. It may seem like I am flip-flopping on the  armed intervention in Syria but I have followed many new perspectives and I fail to see how at least allowing the Russians to get Assad to destroy his Chemical weapons is a bad idea?

 

 

I'm not a great chess player, but you must be one lousy chess player!

 

Because it's not good if the chemical weapons are removed, leaving Russia strongarming Eastern Europe, and resurgent in the Mideast when the US is apparently backsliding and impotent. Because Russia is presently under the control of the most rapacious oligarchical kleptocrats in human history.

 

As oby would confirm, if oby was actually Russian, and could remember and be consistent in her spelling and grammatical errors.

[Gorgon]

Russia has carefully nurtured a reputation of being a bit mad and capable of rolling out the tanks in their cold war era sphere of influence on perceived and slight provocations. It appears to be working. Outside that sphere everything is posing and nothing backed up by real threat. I think they have correctly surmised that the west is not going to bother. Would the west give Georgia full NATO membership if it meant going to war in the near future. I think not.

[HoonDing]

Putin should receive the Noble Prize of Peace for this.

[BruceVC]

 

 

 

Much as it pains me to turn on someone I've been 'standing' next to (metaphorically speaking, I have to say that Bruce is getting a wee bit one dimensional himself.

 

To illustrate, Stratfor observe that this fracas has given Moscow room to ante up in Eastern Europe. And the White House has been completely supine.

 

 

At a time when the United States and Europe are focused on Russia's position in Syria, Moscow has also been making significant moves much closer to its periphery in Europe. On Thursday, a meeting of representatives from the Visegrad Group expressed "outrage" over increased pressure from Russia on the countries of the European Union's Eastern Partnership initiative not to sign trade and association agreements with the European Union.

...

Russia has used a number of tactics to derail the European Union's goals for the Eastern Partnership. In August, Russia temporarily tightened customs controls of Ukraine's exports along the border, explicitly stating that Kiev can expect harsher and more permanent controls if it signs the EU agreements. Moscow has also cut off Moldovan wine exports to Russia, ostensibly due to safety concerns but in reality to make Chisinau think twice about its turn toward Europe. Russia also temporarily increased natural gas prices for Armenia, before reversing the decision after Yerevan announced that it would join the Customs Union. As a result, plans for Armenia to initial the EU agreements have been withdrawn from the summit's agenda.

 

Russia's moves have had a worrying effect on the Eastern Partnership target states, as well as the European countries in the Visegrad Group trying to woo them. Due to their common experience under Soviet domination, these countries share a wariness of Russian power that has only grown as pressure from Moscow has risen.

 

 

 

We'll have to agree to disagree around whether Russia's attempts to broker a peaceful solution make sense in regard to Syria. It may seem like I am flip-flopping on the  armed intervention in Syria but I have followed many new perspectives and I fail to see how at least allowing the Russians to get Assad to destroy his Chemical weapons is a bad idea?

 

 

I'm not a great chess player, but you must be one lousy chess player!

 

Because it's not good if the chemical weapons are removed, leaving Russia strongarming Eastern Europe, and resurgent in the Mideast when the US is apparently backsliding and impotent. Because Russia is presently under the control of the most rapacious oligarchical kleptocrats in human history.

 

As oby would confirm, if oby was actually Russian, and could remember and be consistent in her spelling and grammatical errors.

 

 

You right I'm not a good chess player

 

Walsie lets deal with one global political development at a time, I am not concerned with the rise of Russian hegemony in Eastern Europe as its not an issue yet that demands our immediate attention. Syria is the problem at the moment

[Orogun01]

 

 

Much as it pains me to turn on someone I've been 'standing' next to (metaphorically speaking, I have to say that Bruce is getting a wee bit one dimensional himself.

 

To illustrate, Stratfor observe that this fracas has given Moscow room to ante up in Eastern Europe. And the White House has been completely supine.

 

At a time when the United States and Europe are focused on Russia's position in Syria, Moscow has also been making significant moves much closer to its periphery in Europe. On Thursday, a meeting of representatives from the Visegrad Group expressed "outrage" over increased pressure from Russia on the countries of the European Union's Eastern Partnership initiative not to sign trade and association agreements with the European Union.

...

Russia has used a number of tactics to derail the European Union's goals for the Eastern Partnership. In August, Russia temporarily tightened customs controls of Ukraine's exports along the border, explicitly stating that Kiev can expect harsher and more permanent controls if it signs the EU agreements. Moscow has also cut off Moldovan wine exports to Russia, ostensibly due to safety concerns but in reality to make Chisinau think twice about its turn toward Europe. Russia also temporarily increased natural gas prices for Armenia, before reversing the decision after Yerevan announced that it would join the Customs Union. As a result, plans for Armenia to initial the EU agreements have been withdrawn from the summit's agenda.

 

Russia's moves have had a worrying effect on the Eastern Partnership target states, as well as the European countries in the Visegrad Group trying to woo them. Due to their common experience under Soviet domination, these countries share a wariness of Russian power that has only grown as pressure from Moscow has risen.

 

 

We'll have to agree to disagree around whether Russia's attempts to broker a peaceful solution make sense in regard to Syria. It may seem like I am flip-flopping on the  armed intervention in Syria but I have followed many new perspectives and I fail to see how at least allowing the Russians to get Assad to destroy his Chemical weapons is a bad idea?

 

 

I'm not a great chess player, but you must be one lousy chess player!

 

Because it's not good if the chemical weapons are removed, leaving Russia strongarming Eastern Europe, and resurgent in the Mideast when the US is apparently backsliding and impotent. Because Russia is presently under the control of the most rapacious oligarchical kleptocrats in human history.

 

As oby would confirm, if oby was actually Russian, and could remember and be consistent in her spelling and grammatical errors.

 

I consider Russia at this moment to be a necessary evil, only to keep the US and their NATO lackeys at bay. 

Also, how much different are their "rapacious oligarchical kleptocrats"  from ours?

 

 

"Don't you think it's time to recognize there is as little worth on your side as there is on mine?"

 

[Walsingham]

Putin should receive the Noble Prize of Peace for this.

 

AND an origami unicorn.

[Drowsy Emperor]

I've pretty much come to the conclusion that Obama looks weak because he is weak. His natural instinct is to seek and build concensus rather than to decide stuff himself, and that approach is badly at odds with the (from the outside, highly disfunctional seeming) US political system which seems to reward people who do the political equivalent of sticking their fingers in their ears and shout "nyah nyah nyah can't hear you!". The really telling thing though is the troubles he's had selling his visions in this way even when he had majorities in both the senate (albeit not a supermajority) and house.

 

This whole saga really illustrates that he just isn't very good at deciding stuff. He drew a red line then had to act when it was publicly broken. But it looks very bad because they're claiming that the red line had already been crossed multiple times, he doesn't have the backing he needs either from the public or lawmakers, his natural instinct was still to seek the warm protective blanket of Congress approval as legitimisation despite hinting that their decision would not be honoured, his team and his public announcements have been inconsistent in message and occasionally mutually incompatible and he's now ended up in a bail out option that certainly appears to have been an ad hoc solution prompted by one of his subordinates wandering (or wondering, even) off message again. Control of the issue has been handed to the Russians and Syrians on a platter, and he knows it. No number of deliberately inflammatory French draft resolutions will change that.

 

In direct response to what Bruce asked, it is an approach that I like and I wish would be used more often, but with the proviso that there are obvious reasons why it isn't done that way. Politicians should seek the approval and consent of the people on significant issues rather than acting as an elective dictatorship. But the problem is that while Obama may have the best of intentions and want to check the democratic boxes the system he is operating in- and indeed, the system most politicians operate in- encourages and rewards intransigence; plus that approach is at odds with being an Executive who Draws Red Lines. They aren't really red lines if you're going to have to then ask permission from someone else to act on them.

 

It's hardly a conspiracy theory.

Syria won't fight Israel under pretty much any circumstances. They'd lose, badly, even if they weren't fighting a civil war as well, plus it would guarantee US intervention, even if you had a neo isolationist (Rand Paul? so practically unlikely) as President.

 

You can make a nice parallel between Israel's 'theoretical' nuclear stockpile and Syria's 'theoretical' stockpile though-since they both exist for the same reason (if we look like losing a war we'll nuke Damascus/ if we look like losing a war we'll gas Tel Aviv), are both undeclared, both 'illegal', both never been used (r00fles!) etc.

 

I'm rather surprised to see the US backpedal like this. Usually these interventions are planned well ahead and there is stopping them once the decision has been made. It isn't entirely obvious what's making the US effort crumble on this issue. The congressional approval seems to be more of a result of events behind the scenes, rather than a key point in the whole affair.

 

I'm a proponent of the theory that the modern US president is merely a representative of the various interest groups that form US policy so I don't necessarily agree that his personal strength or weakness is really an important factor. 

 

I suppose its a combination of factors:

1. the lack of public approval (although this isn't entirely necessary if past events are any indication)

2. the British parliamentary vote (while Britain isn't vital to the war effort, these things do need a veneer of legitimacy)

3. strong Russian response, Chinese response (?) this is really an unknown. The only thing we do know is some of the fleet movements and that the Russians were ready to go further than usual

4. inability to gain UN approval (not really something important for the US in previous wars)

 

The more I think about this the more obvious it seems to me that we don't really know what is going on as all of these reasons existed before but were insufficient to stop the previous interventions.

[Malcador]

Putin should receive the Noble Prize of Peace for this.

I honestly hope he does,

[Drowsy Emperor]

I think it has somewhat depreciated in value since Obama got his preemptively, thus Putin will have to receive at least two. 

[kgambit]

THIS is how you make fun of foreign policy.  

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oisXKt6A6YU

 

I particularly like the bit starting around 7:55

 

and this one two days later ....

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ipd3xAv8YJ8

Edited September 13, 2013 by kgambit