Ukraine Conflict - conflict continues

[pmp10]

Apparently Prigozhin accepted some deal negotiated by Lukashenko.
That would mean he either badly overplayed his hand or actually believes amnesty is possilbe after a stunt like this.

If he actually can get away with it that's quite a blow to Putin's authority.  

Edited June 24, 2023 by pmp10

[Lexx]

What a disappointing rebellion.

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Apparently Prigozhin accepted some deal negotiated by Lukashenko.
That would mean he either badly overplayed his hand or actually believes amnesty is possilbe after a stunt like this.

If he actually can get away with it that's quite a blow to Putin's authority.  

Putin doesnt accept that kind of disloyalty and embarrassment, Prigozhin is on borrowed time

He better avoid windows and food 

 

[HoonDing]

6D chess.

[Zoraptor]

I mean, it would be a good way to see who sticks their head up at the sniff of rebellion but if this is a work Putin and Prigozhin should retire from politics and start up a wrestling promotion.

[Keyrock]

Prigozhin may find his next meal fortified with delicious and nutritious Polonium 210.

[Pidesco]

What happens now on the front? Is the Wagner Group contingent gone?

[Chilloutman]

17 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

What happens now on the front? Is the Wagner Group contingent gone?

they are supposed to be integrated into regular army

[Pidesco]

12 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

they are supposed to be integrated into regular army

I feel like that "supposed" is working overtime in that sentence.

[Raithe]

[Zoraptor]

6 hours ago, Pidesco said:

What happens now on the front? Is the Wagner Group contingent gone?

They were already gone from the actual front from the start of June, replaced by regular troops. That's why there were so many of them around in the rear areas.

[Gorth]

According to the BBC, Wagner is relocating their forces to Belarus. Didn't specify where in Belarus (like just north of Kiev or close to the Russian border in the east or whatever)

 

Summary

1. The head of the Wagner mercenary rebels is to leave for Belarus after calling off his troops' advance on Moscow

[BruceVC]

What a strange development, I wonder what really happened to the end the insurrection?

I think Prigozhin assumed he would get more support and when that failed to materialize he was provided a lifeline and some backdoor agreement from Belarus 

But it was legitimate, Putins "1917 " speech and the obvious tension between Prigozhin and Shoigu is real. Putin will never let this go and as I mentioned earlier Prigozhin is on borrowed time 

 

 

[Lexx]

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

According to the BBC, Wagner is relocating their forces to Belarus. Didn't specify where in Belarus (like just north of Kiev or close to the Russian border in the east or whatever)

 

Summary

1. The head of the Wagner mercenary rebels is to leave for Belarus after calling off his troops' advance on Moscow

Maybe they are scared this showed how weak russia actually is and that Belarus could fall into disarray soon, so now they are moving more soldiers over?

[xzar_monty]

4 hours ago, Gorth said:

According to the BBC, Wagner is relocating their forces to Belarus. Didn't specify where in Belarus (like just north of Kiev or close to the Russian border in the east or whatever)

One of the most interesting things was Putin's apparent volte-face in first calling the whole thing "treason" and then sort of just letting it go. A peculiar one, that.

I can imagine a supreme leader letting a nasty remark go, just to show his munificence, but treason? Hardly.

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

One of the most interesting things was Putin's apparent volte-face in first calling the whole thing "treason" and then sort of just letting it go. A peculiar one, that.

I can imagine a supreme leader letting a nasty remark go, just to show his munificence, but treason? Hardly.

But he wont let it go but Putin faced a serious problem with Wagner so they reached a backdoor agreement. He cant fight a war on 2 fronts but there will be consequence for Wagner 

[Mamoulian War]

50 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

One of the most interesting things was Putin's apparent volte-face in first calling the whole thing "treason" and then sort of just letting it go. A peculiar one, that.

I can imagine a supreme leader letting a nasty remark go, just to show his munificence, but treason? Hardly.

And this os the reason, why many people/analysts think, that this deal significantky weakend both Putin and Prigozhin, and that there might be a possibility of similar events in the neare/mid future.

@Gorth I have not read all the stuff around current situation yet, but from what I understand, that only Prigozhin is going to Belarus, and most if not all Wagnerites have to sign contract with Russian MoD, as it was planned before the rebellion. But there is definitelly something brewing in Belarus, as Kaustas Kalinovski Battalion had a long speech yesterday targeted to Belarusian army, to not meddle into Russian in-fighting, and that the people should wait for some kind of signal.

 

edit: one of the sources on the deal:

On the other hand 3-4 hours ago have some Russian Telegrams reported, that the airports at Milerovo and Rostov on Don are still fully under Wagner control

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

But he wont let it go but Putin faced a serious problem with Wagner so they reached a backdoor agreement. He cant fight a war on 2 fronts but there will be consequence for Wagner 

Apparently I should have spelled it out in more detail.

Yes, I know that Putin faced a serious problem and he can't fight a war on two fronts, and I also know that there will be consequences. However, there are instances where if you don't clearly demonstrate your strength, you are effectively doing a clear demonstration of your weakness, and Putin's apparent volte-face is, in my view, a particularly good example of this: the fact that he let the whole thing go (as far as the public side of things is concerned) demonstrated, to me, that Putin is much weaker than I thought he was, and this was extremely interesting to me.

However, there is the caveat that this is not over yet; we are talking about events that are still going on.

Belarus is going to be extremely interesting in the near future. I wish that things could turn better for the Belarusian people; they have demonstrated so much will to be free of tyranny and it took such strong measures to bring them down last time. (And as sad as it is to say it, I have seen no indications that the Russian people wish to be free of tyranny, at least not any  indications worth mentioning: no political opposition, no demonstrations, no "will of the people". I've said it before, but if only the Russians were as prone to demonstrate as the French: it would be a different world for them altogether.[*])

 

[*] Yes, I know, the whole thing is ludicrous. If the Russians were as prone to demonstrate as the French, things wouldn't have got to this in the first place.

 

EDIT: I wonder what the heck is the deal with that strike on the oil depot in Voronezh. Apparently, this strike on Russia came from firmly inside Russia, by Russians, although I am of course prepared to be corrected. Films taken by panicking and crying Russian children don't make it seem palatable at all. And no, of course, I don't think Putin cares or would care one bit.

Edited June 25, 2023 by xzar_monty

[Chilloutman]

well this is for sure bad news for Belarus, 50K army of convicts with loyalty to Russia and Prigozin who now is in dept to Lukasenko is clearly not good sign for getting out of Russia's grasp

[xzar_monty]

A Russian citizen living in Moscow has been pseudonymously and surreptitiously reporting to a Finnish newspaper, describing the effects the war has in Russia, especially in Moscow. He continues to report on the almost complete indifference that Muscovites have towards everything. Today, he wrote that this is what the total lack of fear and even interest effectively comes down to:

"It is extremely unpleasant to write this, but the reason is disgustingly simple. No blood has been shed in Moscow during the 'special operation' in Ukraine. No one has been injured and no one has died in Moscow - no 'ordinary person', that is."

This is, he reports, in absolutely huge contrast to what it was like in Moscow in 1997-1999, before the second Chechnyan war.

 

EDIT: @Chilloutman: If only it didn't look like that what you're saying is most likely true.

Edited June 25, 2023 by xzar_monty

[Malcador]

Oil depot was downrange of them firing at a RF chopper, I believe.

 

[xzar_monty]

Upon sharing this tweet, I very much wish to emphasize that it contains words like POSSIBLE and REPORTEDLY. However, I believe the general stance taken here is likely to be fairly accurate, even if the details are not, and this means that things have probably taken a turn for the worse. I couldn't really fathom a pretty end to the war in the first place, but I'd still say that things are now looking decidedly more sinister. (Btw, I didn't know that Gazprom has a private army, if it indeed does. But on reflection, it does seem fairly obvious that it must have one.)

 

[kanisatha]

What a disappointment. I was so excited about the prospect of political chaos in Russia. 

I suspect Prig learned that as much as generals in the Russian military may dislike/disagree with Putin, they were surely not going to throw their lot in with him. But I do feel this increases the odds that someone within the regime/military with more credibility and standing will look to dipose Putin in the near future. Prig has been gutted like a fish here, but Putin has also been exposed as being weak and vulnerable.

[Mamoulian War]

30 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Upon sharing this tweet, I very much wish to emphasize that it contains words like POSSIBLE and REPORTEDLY. However, I believe the general stance taken here is likely to be fairly accurate, even if the details are not, and this means that things have probably taken a turn for the worse. I couldn't really fathom a pretty end to the war in the first place, but I'd still say that things are now looking decidedly more sinister. (Btw, I didn't know that Gazprom has a private army, if it indeed does. But on reflection, it does seem fairly obvious that it must have one.)

 

Gazprom created his private army around the time of fall of Soledar. Or more like first leaks about it emerged around that time.

[xzar_monty]

31 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Prig has been gutted like a fish here, but Putin has also been exposed as being weak and vulnerable.

Yeah. His de facto amnesty for a treasonous act almost certainly spells serious weakness and vulnerability.