Ukraine Conflict - The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Some months ago, there was a really good article in my daily newspaper by a Russian journalist who had gone through his circle of friends and acquaintances and explored their ways of thinking and justifying the war (or not). The most fascinating, frightening and sad group was what he called the "Z people" who were not open to any kind of discussion and who were able to either ignore or rationalize away any counter-argument presented to them. So while some people were able to openly ponder a question such as "But why did we need to invade?", the Z people either brushed it aside or had an answer that was clearly illogical or absurd but still convinced them completely.

Of course, this is a fairly common phenomenon: when you discuss climate change, for example, there are some people who are completely convinced of their position and equally unable to even rationally consider other views. So it's a question of psychology rather than education, intelligence or interest. It's also fascinating that people's thinking can be compartmentalized so that while they may be very intelligent in general, they can also be completely "stuck" in some areas of their thinking. A good example would be someone like Frank Zappa whose unrepentant attitude towards smoking could not be swayed no matter what; in fact, he once said bluntly: "I am not buying the data", when the hazards were pointed out  to him.

The sad thing about this kind of thinking in Zappa's case, for example, was that his scepticism towards governance and officialdom was in itself perfectly justified: the US government really does have a terrible record when it comes to lying to its citizens, and Zappa himself had some pretty awful early experiences with how arbitrarily and unjustly the US can treat its people. But obviously it does not follow from this that the government is always lying.

When it comes to lying, misdirection, false information and so on, Russians are in a much worse place than quite a lot of other people in other areas of the world -- and this makes the current situation so much more sinister.

There is still one thing, which I do not understand this attitude. My friend’s brother has Russian wife, she always lived in the West, was very strong anti-Putin, and avoided his propaganda, but on 24th February 2022, she completely flipped the switch, and became Z-person, with which, you cannot have any rational discussion anymore

[Mamoulian War]

Wow, this is beyond ridiculous. A RU soldier who entered UA through BY last March, and became the part of the enormous traffic jams gave interview. Ever wondered, what was the real reason, why the RU army got stuck N of Kyiv? Someone “snatched” all of their pontoon bridges
 

 

[Mamoulian War]

Analysis of the battle of Bakhmut by Russian independent newslet Verstka, they are estimating number of Wagner fatalities in tens of thousands…

 

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

There is still one thing, which I do not understand this attitude. My friend’s brother has Russian wife, she always lived in the West, was very strong anti-Putin, and avoided his propaganda, but on 24th February 2022, she completely flipped the switch, and became Z-person, with which, you cannot have any rational discussion anymore

I suppose the start of the war qualifies as a cataclysmic moment in a person's life, and if someone were to ask you or me about what we would do in the case of a cataclysmic event, the only honest answer would be: "I don't know." For example, if your house is on fire and you will have to make a split-second decision about whether to prioritize saving someone else or yourself, only then will you know what you're going to do. (Some preparation is possible, but not a whole lot.)

But yes, I agree that it is very odd. However, I believe it has something to do with stuff like this. There can be beliefs in us that are stronger than we can understand, and sometimes we're not even aware of them.

[Zoraptor]

On the subject of Bakhmut casualties Prigozhin says Wagner lost ~20k dead with around 50/50 pros/ convicts. Then again he also says that Ukraine lost 50k dead and 70k wounded...

I suspect one figure may get some traction, but not the other.

[xzar_monty]

7 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

On the subject of Bakhmut casualties Prigozhin says Wagner lost ~20k dead with around 50/50 pros/ convicts. Then again he also says that Ukraine lost 50k dead and 70k wounded...

I suspect one figure may get some traction, but not the other.

Today, on his Telegram channel, he's talking about the possibility of a civil war in Russia, pointing out that "We are in such a situation that we may lose Russia". He is also disappointed that the children of the Russian elite have been protected and not been sent to the war like ordinary Russians.

So I would take whatever he says in a fairly high-sodium way.

[Mamoulian War]

Prigozhin has also said lately, that Russia should go the way of North Korea.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/24/7403623/

[Malcador]

Heh

[Mamoulian War]

I have found very interesting article by a independent Russian Journalist at Medusa from August 2022, who had to escape Russia with his family. It has links to other articles and also official Russian media. Writing about the message, Putin is trying to proudly present for all to see, which is still today being ignored by a lot of Western people and politicians.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/12/russia-ukraine-war-crimes-genocide-appeasement-mearsheimer-putin/

[Mamoulian War]

And there are at least some good outcomes of the Russian war against Ukraine. Armenia and Azerbaijan have recognized their borders.

 

[Gfted1]

Putin blinks too much, cant trust that.

[Mamoulian War]

According to Belarusian oposition, Lukashenko has been hospitalized after meeting with Putin.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/27/7404183/

[ComradeYellow]

Ukrainian forces are about to get pummelled by Russian defensive lines as soon as they launch Operation Citadel their offensive, says certain experts who correctly predicted events in the past.

The war will drag on but ultimately Russia will win the 4 oblasts in the Donass and Ukraine will remain a rump state, a typical very costly strategic Russian victory.

I'll go a step further and predict something truly shocking: The US will eventually side with Russia later down the road once it becomes painfully obvious that they will not be able to stop China's rise without Russia gravitating more towards the US.  United Snakes of America is a thing!

Edited May 27, 2023 by ComradeYellow

[pmp10]

Russia has finally hinted at its peace conditions.
Besides accepting de facto territorial changes Ukrainian 'neutrality' is expected.
What is new that in now means no EU integration as well as no NATO.

Ukraine responded with equally maximalist demands.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

Russia has finally hinted at its peace conditions.
Besides accepting de facto territorial changes Ukrainian 'neutrality' is expected.
What is new that in now means no EU integration as well as no NATO.

Ukraine responded with equally maximalist demands.

Doesnt seem very realistic or reasonable at the moment, if Russia had the military advantage Ukraine may accept some of these terms but I doubt it?

 

[Lexx]

Didn't they just announced that the counter attack has already started? And then russia comes around the corner with yet another peace offer. To me this just feels like they are trying to stall them.

[pmp10]

I'd say it's less a serious peace offer and more a signal to the west.
They are apparently willing to give-up on regime change and direct control of the country.

But they are not about to let Ukraine get-off from that Russian cutting board.

[Mamoulian War]

We'll see how this offer will age until November

[xzar_monty]

Here's an interesting article on Russia's supposed dearth of material. However, I somewhat dislike the choice of words here and would have greatly preferred a more reasoned tone. The juxtaposition of headlines such as "Russia still has more of everything than Ukraine does" and this one in the link below, "Russia fields increasingly desperate...", does not make for pleasant reading. If the first casualty of war is truth, objectivity is surely one of its concomitants.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/4a3xww/russia-fields-increasingly-desperate-war-machines-cobbled-from-spare-parts

 

Edited May 28, 2023 by xzar_monty

[xzar_monty]

Probably still unconfirmed but looks extremely interesting. I suppose a lot of people remember the recent attempted uprisings in Belarus, and the way they were crushed. I would like to have more hope for the people of Belarus than I currently do, and I would love to be proven wrong in my lack of it.

 

[Malcador]

4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The juxtaposition of headlines such as "Russia still has more of everything than Ukraine does" and this one in the link below, "Russia fields increasingly desperate...", does not make for pleasant reading.

Strange, what's unpleasant about that? Well, maybe realizing the former headlines were mostly scare mongering for X weapons system, I guess.

[Mamoulian War]

Moscow under attack

 

 

[xzar_monty]

Russia will permanently shut down a consulate in Finland and two Finnish consulates in Russia. The delightfully infantile thing about all this is how the Russian foreign ministry words itself: "Finland bears all responsibility for the current situation." So there is no Russian aggression in Ukraine, Russia is not turning its back to large parts of the diplomatic community, Russia has not done anything wrong, but its pesky little neighbour is being a nuisance and continues to do completely unacceptable things that deliberately provoke and annoy the Russian people.

Let's face it, friends and neighbours, Finland is geographically effed in a serious way: on this planet, it is almost impossible to have a worse country right behind your longest border.

[Malcador]

I guess that was their vengeful response to the air attacks this week.  So strange to see the media bleating about it here when everything gets intercepted.

[Gorth]

6 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Let's face it, friends and neighbours, Finland is geographically effed in a serious way: on this planet, it is almost impossible to have a worse country right behind your longest border.

Try having Germany/Prussia or Sweden as your border pals (Denmark used to have a land border with Sweden). The sad reality of European history, it hasn't changed (much) how things have been done the past 2000 years.