The All Things Political Topic - new edition

[Gromnir]

is a long list o' rich people who has gone to prison, including micheal cohen... and is worth mentioning cohen 'cause ny is gonna try and says cohen went to prison for trump.  'course convicting trump for the pr0n star hush-money is not as ez as a few pundits make it sound in part 'cause the system is rigged in favour o' defendants, as tough as that may be to believe for all the angry libs out there. european countries don't have anything like the exclusionary rule and the whole grand jury process itself went outta vogue for euros in the late 1700s. standards o' proof is much higher in the US compared to near all europe and asia. however, even in 2023, most juries assume cops is telling the truth which ain't a matter o' law but o' culture. etc. the reason(s) we got so many in prison here in the US is social, economic and cultural (and kinda unforgivable) but the US legal system is in fact far more defendant friendly than other western nations and democratic republics. 

however, is true you ain't getting a full and vigorous defense in the US unless you pay for it, so the rich do enjoy substantial benefits. heck kyle rittenhouse weren't wealthy but arguable one reason he stayed outta prison for his stoopid is 'cause his crowdfunding efforts resulted in a significant war chest for his criminal defense. 

regardless, if trump don't go to prison for pr0n star hush-money is gonna be less 'cause the rich get away with everything as 'posed to fact nobody has ever been successful convicted in ny for what the manhattan da is attempting to prosecute trump. the US Government went after john edwards for something similar in 2011 and they failed. ny faces a tougher challenge than US v. edwards, so...

trump is a terrible person, but you don't go to prison for being terrible. our overcrowded prisons would have 100x as many people locked up if being terrible were enough to get you imprisoned.

for those who loathe trump and want to see justice done, am recommending not holding your breath waiting for the guilty verdict from ny.  the tax evasion thing is a real problem for trump if bragg went that way, but am just not confident trump ends up behind bars for hush-money payment reporting fails.

edit: also is noteworthy the doj didn't choose to go after trump for the fed election/tax issues once 45 left office. am understanding the main hurdle for indictment were the fact the feds thought michael cohen were a terrible witness, and am gonna suggest that for a successful hush-money prosecution, cohen needs be better than terrible. 

also, as difficult as is gonna be to believe, from our pov the more significant legal news from today is not the hoopla regarding trump.

dude.

...

dude.

"In its partial ruling in favor of Dominion, the court did determine statements made by Fox were statements of fact and were not statements of opinion."

"The court also determined that Fox "cannot avail themselves of certain defenses like the neutral report and fair report privileges or the privilege for opinion""

furthermore, punitive damages were not excluded, which am thinking is nevertheless a tough mountain for dominion to climb but such damages is the kinda thing which could result in serious pain for fox and real changes to US journalism in general.

fox reaction to today's dueling summary judgement rulings.

 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited March 31, 2023 by Gromnir

[Sarex]

The longest running president in Europe just lost his crown. Now to see if he runs to the US or actually stays and faces his accusers (his brother already ran to the US).

I'm talking about Montenegro if anyone taught it was Belarus.

[Chairchucker]

I still do not believe in the possibility of A Legal Consequence for Trump and will not do so until he is in prison, but on the offchance I am wrong and Stormy ends up being the equivalent of Al Capone's accountant (this is a bad analogy but stick with me here) she should be considered a national hero imo. (Only slight hyperbole)

 

Anyway, Trump definitely deserves prison several times over, and if it turns out to be the equivalent of tax evasion that does him in I'm all for it, but that probs won't happen and we'll probs have to choose between two geriatrics at voting time again, oh well.

[Pidesco]

Another interesting Twitter thread.

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Chairchucker said:

I still do not believe in the possibility of A Legal Consequence for Trump and will not do so until he is in prison, but on the offchance I am wrong and Stormy ends up being the equivalent of Al Capone's accountant (this is a bad analogy but stick with me here) she should be considered a national hero imo. (Only slight hyperbole)

 

Anyway, Trump definitely deserves prison several times over, and if it turns out to be the equivalent of tax evasion that does him in I'm all for it, but that probs won't happen and we'll probs have to choose between two geriatrics at voting time again, oh well.

You know Trump can still  run for president even if he is found guilty 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-elected-president-indicted-convicted-experts/story?id=97688250

[Chairchucker]

23 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

You know Trump can still  run for president even if he is found guilty 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-elected-president-indicted-convicted-experts/story?id=97688250

Yeah, but there's a naive part of me that hopes the GOP will be able to avoid having him as the candidate of choice if he's in prison, or that he'll be so busy being in prison he'll forget to run or something.

[Lexx]

Damn, did they really arrest Trump.

[Malcador]

Have to respect the grift - https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-mugshot-campaign-1234708971/

 

Edited April 4, 2023 by Malcador

[Hurlshort]

Ah yes, that time Jesus came down from his gaudy gold tower to face Pontius Pilate. 

I guess Stormy Daniels needs to play up the Mary Magdelene angle in her next film.

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, Hurlshort said:

Ah yes, that time Jesus came down from his gaudy gold tower to face Pontius Pilate. 

I guess Stormy Daniels needs to play up the Mary Magdelene angle in her next film.

Its grandstanding, no need to take it seriously. I would think after years of Trump and Trump supporter rhetoric everyone would be use to it now and just ignore it 

[HoonDing]

Has it been proven MTG is really a woman?

[Guard Dog]

I don't post here much because I don't really care about politics anymore. And the current criminal case against Trump sounds like a short road to nowhere. Reading Grom's analysis confirms that. I'm just going to say it couldn't have happened to a nicer guy! 

I'm a little taken aback that all of this is only increasing his popularity.

Also even though it seems likely he will survive this one there are two other torpedoes in the water. The biggest of which is in GA.

[Gromnir]

37 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

 

I'm a little taken aback that all of this is only increasing his popularity.

 

bill clinton's popularity shot up after he lied under oath about his lewinsky relationship. after perjuring himself, clinton became more popular with democrats? is also good to recall how unpopular trump were when he won in 2016. is only 'cause trump were running against even less popular hillary that he eked out an electoral college victory. somehow four years o' impotence, impeachments and brazen unconstitutional behaviour resulted in 45's enshrinement as the cult leader o' the gop? am no longer shocked by how political bad guys doing bad things become more popular at least in the short term.

am also gonna suggest IF the feds decide to charge trump for the mar-a-lago documents, that is the case which looks most solid at the moment. (clarification: keep in mind am basing such an opinion on public known info available to everybody else.  we don't know what evidence franni willis has and am not certain o' wapo and nytimes info regarding the fed's documents or jan6. cases. no special knowledge and new info could complete change our opinion, so take with a healthy grain o' salt.) am knowing conservative media has been doing the svengali bit regarding the possible espionage act charges in play which might be applicable to trump, but please keep in mind we has now seen fed judges pierce the attorney-client privilege veil for this case and is no way that happens unless is already compelling evidence not only o' wrongdoing by trump but by his attorneys. 

initially we were suspicious o' the suggestion the feds were trying to prosecute trump for his theft o' documents. is only extreme rare cases when somebody is prosecuted for such and those prosecutions always involve intent to share such documents with foreign powers or something equal sinister. we noted specific in our earliest posts on the matter that it were possible the feds ultimate and overriding goal were to get the documents back and once that happened they would consider it a victory and that might be the end o' the issue.

what has become increasing apparent since the mar-a-lago story first broke is the clear and unrepentant obstructive efforts trump indulged to prevent the return o' government documents. court docs suggest the government is unconvinced all relevant documents has been returned even after their subpeona search and subsequent trump team searches. mar-a-lago docs is so not like the discovery that pence or biden had classified documents in their possession, 'cause those two individuals cooperated fully with the feds in retrieving doc and is no evidence they lied 'bout such material. trump is not being targeted 'cause he had government documents in his possession but rather 'cause once he were aware he had such documents, he were bold in his efforts to obstruct and he went to extreme lengths to maintain his possession o' documents which he had no right to keep. 

georgia also looks like a strong case, but...

trump is gonna face a jury in the possible fed cases as well as georgia and to say am suspicious o' juries is an understatement. feel free to discuss the law and facts o' a case, but keep in mind juries as often as not is deciding based on factors you is unaware. jurors may not like a prosecutor or judge. too much eye contact or not enough eye contact from the defendant? a key prosecution witness looked "shifty?"  the feds ordinarily don't go to trial unless is a slam dunk. state and local prosecutors is elected and they often need show results if they wanna get reelected. is gonna be circumstances wherein state prosecutors go to trial with less airtight cases.

the georgia case sounds strong and is multiple recorded phone calls o' trump pressuring state officials. multiple smoking guns. even so, is a better than fair chance at least one juror won't wanna convict trump and they will possible tie selves in knots trying to find an excuse for trump.

the feds appear to have video o' trump rifling through boxes containing classified govt documents after he received the subpeona to return such documents and the piercing o' attorney-client privilege suggests there is compelling evidence trump specific told his attorney to do something illegal. serious? 

in georgia, am assuming the defense for trump is gonna be that the x-prez believed the 2020 election were illegitimate and that it were his duty to try and convince georgia officials to do the right thing to uphold the law. is ridiculous and maybe not even relevant, but at least 1/3 o' the country already believes such hokum, so the chances one georgia juror is willing to refuse to believe what their own eyes and ears tells 'em is hardly beyond reason. 

repeat for emphasis: gonna suggest the media is in fact underreporting the significance o' the piercing o' attorney-client privilege to have trump lawyer(s) testify. such news is huge.

HA! Good Fun!

 

[BruceVC]

d

 

Edited April 5, 2023 by BruceVC

[Gromnir]

Dan Kelly calls Wisconsin Supreme Court winner Janet Protasiewicz a 'serial liar' as he lashes out in his concession speech

the ten point margin o' victory is the important part. wisconsin Courts has been noteworthy aggressive in their efforts to turn back the calendrer on voting rights and free speech protections. 

appropriate for @Guard Dog

this is yet another election conservatives lost almost entirely 'cause o' the SCOTUS overturning o' roe as protasiewicz ran her campaign laser focused on characterizing the choice 'tween her and kelly as a referendum on abortion rights.

and apologies if gd and his wi girlfriend is no longer a thing.

HA! Good Fun!

 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Gromnir

[Guard Dog]

10 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

and apologies if gd and his wi girlfriend is no longer a thing.

HA! Good Fun!

 

No sweat, we are still a thing. Amazingly so actually because I did not want to drag her into my current difficulties. Life is strange and wonderful sometimes. My actual relatives have sent nothing but radio silence and my biggest supporters were strangers just two years ago.

[Gromnir]

Pence won’t appeal ruling that compels his grand jury testimony on Jan. 6

cnn free version

HA! Good Fun!

[Bartimaeus]

10 hours ago, Gromnir said:

this is yet another election conservatives lost almost entirely 'cause o' the SCOTUS overturning o' roe as protasiewicz ran her campaign laser focused on characterizing the choice 'tween her and kelly as a referendum on abortion rights.

Very curious to see if Republicans attempt to use Wisconsin's weird impeachment process(...es?) to try to cut any court 'activism' at the knees. If the court looks to kill gerrymandering and draw its own maps, I imagine they'll have a very vested interest in attempting literally anything to try to prevent it considering the sad state of Wisconsin's legislative maps, no matter how corrupt it might appear.

[BruceVC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-crown-prince-says-do-not-care-if-biden-misunderstands-him-atlantic-2022-03-03/

I have raised  this before but this is a consequence of the mishandling and public vilification of  MbS over incidents like the Khashoggi assassination  from the US and particularly the Biden administration. Trump handled the Saudi's much better and he understood the respect they expected 

Its not the end of the world but it does mean the likes of Saudi Arabia wont increase oil supply if asked by the US like they would do under a Trump presidency and Saudi Arabia also have influence with other OPEC countries 

I think this type of rift is easy to fix but it will require some effort from the US but it wont happen under Biden who has been given bad advice around dealing with the likes of the Saudi Arabia 

[Zoraptor]

That's probably the least significant sign that MbS is peeved given that at least is just political theatre so far, with just a semi veiled threat to cut investment. OTOH in practical terms in the past month we've had:

1. Reinstatement of ties with US enemy Iran
2. Reinstatement of ties with US enemy Syria
3. A significant cut in oil production when the US wants the market flooded
4. First ever visit of a Russian warship, returning from... a much criticised (by the US) exercise with US enemies China and Iran

If you ran down a checklist of things guaranteed to annoy (but not unduly provoke) the US it would look pretty much exactly like that.

[Gorth]

57 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-crown-prince-says-do-not-care-if-biden-misunderstands-him-atlantic-2022-03-03/

I have raised  this before but this is a consequence of the mishandling and public vilification of  MbS over incidents like the Khashoggi assassination  from the US and particularly the Biden administration. Trump handled the Saudi's much better and he understood the respect they expected 

Its not the end of the world but it does mean the likes of Saudi Arabia wont increase oil supply if asked by the US like they would do under a Trump presidency and Saudi Arabia also have influence with other OPEC countries 

I think this type of rift is easy to fix but it will require some effort from the US but it wont happen under Biden who has been given bad advice around dealing with the likes of the Saudi Arabia 

Translation: Trump absolutely adored autocratic rulers (Kim, Modi, MbS, Putin etc.) and was much easier to get to dance to the Saudi tune. A country which hates the US and support their enemies like AQ materially and financially, even if the money is not in the official books (because having the support of US against Iran is always a nice bonus, especially if the support is free, bar a few scratches behind Trumps ear and a few encouraging words, not followed by action). If the new puppet doesn't want to dance properly, time to put on the spiked gloves and hurt the world economy until a new and more pliable leader is elected, because that's what democracies do, picking the paths of least resistance (no absolutes without exceptions of course).

[BruceVC]

12 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Translation: Trump absolutely adored autocratic rulers (Kim, Modi, MbS, Putin etc.) and was much easier to get to dance to the Saudi tune. A country which hates the US and support their enemies like AQ materially and financially, even if the money is not in the official books (because having the support of US against Iran is always a nice bonus, especially if the support is free, bar a few scratches behind Trumps ear and a few encouraging words, not followed by action). If the new puppet doesn't want to dance properly, time to put on the spiked gloves and hurt the world economy until a new and more pliable leader is elected, because that's what democracies do, picking the paths of least resistance (no absolutes without exceptions of course).

So that is not accurate about the historical relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US

Saudi Arabia doesnt hate the US, the US built most of Saudi Arabia and it  was Saudi Arabia who insisted on US military intervention in the first Gulf War. Funding of Islamic extremist  groups like AQ was done by individuals within Saudi Arabia and not the Saudi royal family because Bin Laden was already expelled in 1991  by the Saudi's because he criticized the US relationship, here are the timelines around 9/11

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/05/02/bin.laden.timeline/index.html

 

The first country Trump visited was Saudi Arabia and this respect shown to the Saudis was also the reason why Trump could say " increase oil supply " and they did 

But Im not suggesting Saudi Arabia is an example of moral compass and human rights.  No country in the ME is but you need to balance how you criticize them if you the US if you want to influence oil supply

Thats what Biden misunderstood and how he  handled things like the killing of Khashoggi

 

[Gromnir]

10 hours ago, Bartimaeus said:

Very curious to see if Republicans attempt to use Wisconsin's weird impeachment process(...es?) to try to cut any court 'activism' at the knees. If the court looks to kill gerrymandering and draw its own maps, I imagine they'll have a very vested interest in attempting literally anything to try to prevent it considering the sad state of Wisconsin's legislative maps, no matter how corrupt it might appear.

am suspecting an impeachment by wi republicans would have a similar impact as did the overturn o' roe. democrats vote less reliable than does republicans, but if they is motivated by anger or fear, they will show up at the polls in their multitudes. an impeachment would make the democrats even more active in the next election. impeachment sure ain't gonna win over the independents who is always pivotal in close elections. 

at the moment the gop is complete dedicated to the politics o' grievance which am s'posing is meant to keep trump and his base happy. 'course indulging trumpism is a devil's bargain and it may be the bill is already coming due. the gop needs such stoopid as the war on wokeism and qanon nonsense to retain the trump base, but by indulging the base/trump, they galvanize democrats and distance themselves from independents. 

'course is equal true democrats typical fail at crafting a message which simultaneous resonates with their voters and appeals to independents. 

our prediction for wisconsin is we see the equivalent o' a south park slap fight. 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited April 6, 2023 by Gromnir

[Malcador]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-65193446

At least they're not being left to bare knuckle box to become King of their floating hell.

[Gfted1]

A floating concentration camp? Innovative!